1st vs 2nd Round WR Hit Rate

[julian]

This board quickly went from Spencer Brown is a bust to let’s use Spencer Brown in a 1st round trade up lol.

 

 Im starting to think people just don’t like Spencer Brown, is there some video out there of him saying or doing stupid sh*t that I haven’t seen ?

 

 If he helps you get into the top 10 then I’m on board, otherwise I like where Brown’s game is heading.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, nedboy7 said:

Just draft the next Diggs in the 5th.  Problem solved. 

 

Could we try for Puka Nacua?
 

9 minutes ago, julian said:

This board quickly went from Spencer Brown is a bust to let’s use Spencer Brown in a 1st round trade up lol.

 

 Im starting to think people just don’t like Spencer Brown, is there some video out there of him saying or doing stupid sh*t that I haven’t seen ?

 

 If he helps you get into the top 10 then I’m on board, otherwise I like where Brown’s game is heading.

 

LOL that's a TBD special.  "This player's no good, therefore let's trade him for a high pick!"  because you know, if a player is genuinely limited surely some other GM will give you a sack 'o draft valuata......

 

We traded Cordy Glenn, who was a very good LT when not injured as follows: "On March 12, 2018, the Bills agreed to trade Glenn, the 21st overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft, and a 2018 fifth round pick to the Cincinnati Bengals in exchange for the 2018 12th overall pick and a 2018 sixth round pick"

 

So basically, Glenn plus a 5th/6th pick swap moved us up 9 spots.  IF we value Brown, a RT, the same (that's an 'if'), he'd get us from 28 to 19....no where near 10.

Edited April 11 by Beck Water

[julian]

10 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Could we try for Puka Nacua?
 

 

LOL that's a TBD special.  "This player's no good, therefore let's trade him for a high pick!"  because you know, if a player is genuinely limited surely some other GM will give you a sack 'o draft valuata......

 

We traded Cordy Glenn, who was a very good LT when not injured as follows: "On March 12, 2018, the Bills agreed to trade Glenn, the 21st overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft, and a 2018 fifth round pick to the Cincinnati Bengals in exchange for the 2018 12th overall pick and a 2018 sixth round pick"

 

So basically, Glenn plus a 5th/6th pick swap moved us up 9 spots.  IF we value Brown, a RT, the same (that's an 'if'), he'd get us from 28 to 19....no where near 10.

Yeah then I’m out on that, Brown is progressing nicely.

[LABILLBACKER]

This is all the more reason why we probably need to double dip on wrs. We'll be lucky to find one wr1/wr2 between the 2 picks. And next year we'll need to draft wr again.  So between the 1st & 2nd round we have about a 30% chance of landing a (++) wr.

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Rigotz said:

I've heard a lot of Bills talking heads raving about 2nd round WR success -- Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, etc.

 

It's a hot topic with the podcasting community as everyone seems to be laser focused at WR in round 1 or 2.

 

So, I was curious to research the hit rate of WR in 1st round vs 2nd round the past several years. The results might surprise you.

 

I marked "++" for plus starters each year, which I would define as a top 32 wideout. The past 2 seasons are TBD, so I started in 2021.

 

Totals:

11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%).

6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%).

 

2021:

1st Round

Ja'Marr Chase ++

Jaylen Waddle ++

DeVonta Smith ++

Kadarius Toney

Rashod Bateman

 

2nd Round

Elijah Moore

Rondale Moore

D'Wayne Eskridge

Tutu Atwell

Terrace Marshall Jr

 

2020:

1st Round

Henry Ruggs

Jerry Jeudy

CeeDee Lamb ++

Jalen Reagor

Justin Jefferson ++

Brandon Aiyuk ++

2nd Round

Tee Higgins ++

Michael Pittman ++

Laviska Shenault

KJ Hamler

Chase Claypool

Van Jefferson

Denzel Mims

 

2019:

1st Round

Marquise Brown

N'Keal Harry

2nd Round

Deebo Samuel ++

AJ Brown ++

Mecole Hardman

JJ Arcega-Whiteside

Parris Campbell

Andy Isabella

DK Metcalf ++

 

2018:

1st Round:

DJ Moore ++

Calvin Ridley

2nd Round:

Courtland Sutton

Dante Pettis

Christian Kirk

Anthony MIller

James Washintgon

DJ Chark

 

2017:

1st Round:

Corey Davis

Mike Williams ++

John Ross

2nd Round:

Zay Jones

Curtis Samuel

JuJu Smith-Schuster

 

2016:

1st Round:

Corey Coleman

Will Fuller

Josh Doctson

Laquon Treadwell

2nd Round:

Sterling Shepard

Michael Thomas +?

Tyler Boyd

 

2015:

1st Round:

Amari Cooper ++

Kevin White

DeVante Parker

Nelson Agholor

Breshad Perriman

Phillip Dorsett

2nd Round:

Devin Smith

Dorial Green-Beckham

 

So ... when you hear the talking heads describing 1st and 2nd round as both being a hot bed for WR talent historically, this is just recency bias due to a few good players coming from the 2020 and 2019 first and second round. There have been been A LOT of JAGs mixed in as well... but maybe they forgot. Hope you enjoy the analysis.

 

There's also a significant pattern of dropoff in play for WRs selected somewhere in the 50s for overall selection.  So the 60th pick isn't likely to help us out.  

 

We've gotta make the most of our 1st rounder for a WR.  

 

 

[SoonerBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

I hear ya man … gotta take more shots .., not less 

Gotta keep swinging. Beane is better than the assclown we had at GM then.  I have faith he can pick the right guy.

[ghostwriter]

If you’re Beane, please just take your guy at 28. Don’t get cute. I don’t care if it’s BTJ or Legette, reach 10-15 spots if you have to, this Draft is too good not to.

[gtw3]

I am so torn on what I think we should do with this pick(s).  If you go back just one year further to 2014 you have, probably the best WR draft ever.  We moved up in that draft to get Watkins and it didn't really pan out for us.   That draft had Evans, OBJ, Watkins, Adams, Landry, Cooks, Benjamin, Robinson amongst others.

 

So do we package a ton of picks to move up to get 1 guy who we really like or try to maneuver to pick up a few of these highly touted WRs?

 

...in Beane I trust, I guess.

 

[SoonerBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

If you’re Beane, please just take your guy at 28. Don’t get cute. I don’t care if it’s BTJ or Legette, reach 10-15 spots if you have to, this Draft is too good not to.

I am with you in a little move up.  But I hope he makes sure he picks the RIGHT WR.

[MPL]

I see Andy Isabella is on this list... so, we're all set, right?

[ghostwriter]

Just now, SoonerBillsFan said:

I am with you in a little move up.  But I hope he makes sure he picks the RIGHT WR.

Oh, absolutely. Especially if we could get BTJ for 28 and maybe our 4th and 5th and maybe our 3rd next year, I’d feel a lot better about it if the compensation is right. Ideally we hang onto all three of our 2nds.

[Richard Noggin]

11 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

This is a good point and a large part of how successful a player is or isn't comes down to how they are used, the scheme they play in and the opportunities they are given.  I mean would Puka Nacua have gotten such a prominent role in the offense if Cooper Kupp hadn't been injured?  Probably not. Also, a WR drafted in the 3rd round on a bad team might get a lot more snaps as a top 3 WR than a 1st round pick drafted on a good team. Or at least a similar number of reps, and might be targeted more often than a rookie on a good team simply due to too many players and not enough balls to go around where the same player on a bad team doesn't have this issue.

 

 

Obviously McVay's offense WILL feature SOMEone in that ultra-productive Z/move-WR role, year after year. He's especially good at designing production. Give him a healthy Atwell and Cupp to go with Nacua, and you'll see fireworks. 

 

17 minutes ago, julian said:

Yeah then I’m out on that, Brown is progressing nicely.

 

He IS entering the final year of his rookie deal, right? Will they pay BOTH OTs big money in 2025? After 2023, Brown isn't on a bargain FA RT trajectory (if he continues to develop or even if he just plateaus where he's at). Of course you'd prefer to see the org re-sign the guy they saw the value in and worked to develop. But you can't keep them all. 

[BigDingus]

You also have to look beyond the 1st & 2nd rounds.

 

Nico Collins - 3rd Round

Keenan Allen - 3rd Round

Terry McLaurin - 3rd Round

Cooper Kupp - 3rd Round

Amon-Ra St. Brown - 4th Round

Stefon Diggs - 5th Round

Tyreek Hill - 5th Round

Puca Nacua - 5th Round

 

You definitely can find the more sure-fire picks earlier in the draft, but smart teams find stars in the later rounds every year. The Bills would be smart to go after multiple guys, including those that aren't given 1st or 2nd round grades.

[julian]

9 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Obviously McVay's offense WILL feature SOMEone in that ultra-productive Z/move-WR role, year after year. He's especially good at designing production. Give him a healthy Atwell and Cupp to go with Nacua, and you'll see fireworks. 

 

 

He IS entering the final year of his rookie deal, right? Will they pay BOTH OTs big money in 2025? After 2023, Brown isn't on a bargain FA RT trajectory (if he continues to develop or even if he just plateaus where he's at). Of course you'd prefer to see the org re-sign the guy they saw the value in and worked to develop. But you can't keep them all. 

While I agree with you that you’re not gonna be able to keep them all, I’m just of the belief that the position you lean towards keeping is young upstart offensive linemen and you protect your most valuable asset in #17.

 

 Trim the fat from another position group IMHO.

[Richard Noggin]

11 minutes ago, julian said:

While I agree with you that you’re not gonna be able to keep them all, I’m just of the belief that the position you lean towards keeping is young upstart offensive linemen and you protect your most valuable asset in #17.

 

 Trim the fat from another position group IMHO.

 

Guys will see this and just say "Hell yeah"

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I am with you in a little move up.  But I hope he makes sure he picks the RIGHT WR.

 

I could be wrong, but I think the Bills need to move one way or the other, and knowing Beane, Up is more likely.  But not having a 3rd round pick hampers him.

[pennstate10]

6 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

So my take away from this thread is:

 

we trade up for BTJ 

 

& trade our 2025 1st to get back into the round for ________ (insert favorite choice)

 

😎😂
 

 

Please God,

 

let us have Nabers AND BTJ?!  

 

🤯Allen A-BOMB offense.  
 

28 & Spencer Brown to LV for 13

 

13, 128, 2025 2nd, 3rd to LAC/NYG 6/7

 

60, 2025 1st, 2nd, 5th to SEA  for 16

 

😈

 

 

 

[Bookie Man]

Draft is a literal crapshoot.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Rigotz said:

I debated Michael Thomas being a ++ but he’s on waivers right now and generally an afterthought in Free Agency.

 

But was a 2 time 1st team all pro a 1 time offensive player of the year and a two time NFL receptions leader. Yea the back half of his career has been a bust with injuries and instability at the QB position but he was on historic pace the first 4 years.

 

The other one I question is Mike Williams. I don't think he is close to a "++". I'd take Courtland Sutton over him. Williams has 400 more yards and 7 more touchdowns but has started 7 more games and had Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert. Compare that to the QB disaster that Denver has been. If you swapped those situations around Sutton would have a bigger statistical lead on Williams than he has on Sutton without a doubt IMO.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

14 hours ago, Rigotz said:

I've heard a lot of Bills talking heads raving about 2nd round WR success -- Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, etc.

 

It's a hot topic with the podcasting community as everyone seems to be laser focused at WR in round 1 or 2.

 

So, I was curious to research the hit rate of WR in 1st round vs 2nd round the past several years. The results might surprise you.

 

I marked "++" for plus starters each year, which I would define as a top 32 wideout. The past 2 seasons are TBD, so I started in 2021.

 

Totals:

11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%).

6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%).

 

2021:

1st Round

Ja'Marr Chase ++

Jaylen Waddle ++

DeVonta Smith ++

Kadarius Toney

Rashod Bateman

 

2nd Round

Elijah Moore

Rondale Moore

D'Wayne Eskridge

Tutu Atwell

Terrace Marshall Jr

 

2020:

1st Round

Henry Ruggs

Jerry Jeudy

CeeDee Lamb ++

Jalen Reagor

Justin Jefferson ++

Brandon Aiyuk ++

2nd Round

Tee Higgins ++

Michael Pittman ++

Laviska Shenault

KJ Hamler

Chase Claypool

Van Jefferson

Denzel Mims

 

2019:

1st Round

Marquise Brown

N'Keal Harry

2nd Round

Deebo Samuel ++

AJ Brown ++

Mecole Hardman

JJ Arcega-Whiteside

Parris Campbell

Andy Isabella

DK Metcalf ++

 

2018:

1st Round:

DJ Moore ++

Calvin Ridley

2nd Round:

Courtland Sutton

Dante Pettis

Christian Kirk

Anthony MIller

James Washintgon

DJ Chark

 

2017:

1st Round:

Corey Davis

Mike Williams ++

John Ross

2nd Round:

Zay Jones

Curtis Samuel

JuJu Smith-Schuster

 

2016:

1st Round:

Corey Coleman

Will Fuller

Josh Doctson

Laquon Treadwell

2nd Round:

Sterling Shepard

Michael Thomas +?

Tyler Boyd

 

2015:

1st Round:

Amari Cooper ++

Kevin White

DeVante Parker

Nelson Agholor

Breshad Perriman

Phillip Dorsett

2nd Round:

Devin Smith

Dorial Green-Beckham

 

So ... when you hear the talking heads describing 1st and 2nd round as both being a hot bed for WR talent historically, this is just recency bias due to a few good players coming from the 2020 and 2019 first and second round. There have been been A LOT of JAGs mixed in as well... but maybe they forgot. Hope you enjoy the analysis.

 

So looking at this, my question is are there many WR drafted in lower rounds who'd earn your ++ rating, or are there just not many ++ WR's around anywhere, or is your grading curve to tough to earn the ++?