Odds are WR position after draft will still be more of question then the answer desired

[corta765]

1 hour ago, Bill from NYC said:

It depends. If McDermott is serious about the WR position, there would seem to be enough quality receivers in this draft to make a difference. If he decides to focus more on defense (a distinct possibility imo) then yes; we will almost certainly be lacking yet again at WR.  Logic tells me that he HAS to address WR often and early. History tells me that he is mostly about defernse.

 

We will find out soon enough.

Agreed. The only player on offense they have truly moved for in round 1 was Josh. Other then that its been defense or draft while in position. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

 

 

Respectfully, not if they get two and two good ones, possibly back to back early.

 

Just as an example, (because I am not fully set yet, nor is anyone, so just go with it and don't analyze the actual picks), but if that room is McConkey, Legette, Samuel, Shakir, Shorter among the guys (Isabelle, the other guy) I am not sure your screaming that you have to have a name in there.  

 

Do you need someone?  Yes, sure.  Do you need a name and are their questions?  I don't think so.

 

I am not vouching that the rookies will be knockouts, I'm just saying Beane and the coaches will like the room.

 

 

[BillsVet]

40 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

It depends. If McDermott is serious about the WR position, there would seem to be enough quality receivers in this draft to make a difference. If he decides to focus more on defense (a distinct possibility imo) then yes; we will almost certainly be lacking yet again at WR.  Logic tells me that he HAS to address WR often and early. History tells me that he is mostly about defernse.

 

We will find out soon enough.

 

I've always liked the draft for how it shows what a team is really thinking long-term.  In UFA, they're filling more immediate needs, but the draft is a more long-term personnel decision process.  And we spend most of the lead up projecting what will happen.  Draft weekend confirms or denies those thoughts.  

 

At the end of last season, I think McD finally got what we wanted on offense: a more run-heavy team that threw more short to intermediate.  Josh's yards per attempt went down, even though he was throwing it as frequently under Dorsey compared to Brady (35 to 33 attempts per game).  Upside is Josh reduced his INT's, but I'm still not a fan of taking the ball out of Josh's hands or running him like Brady did. 

 

Wouldn't be surprised to see them go in another direction and justify it by noting the depth of this WR class.  And then point to what's in-house already, but we will find out soon enough.     

[Don Otreply]

4 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

all anecdotal, and my opinion

 

Fair enough, I like my opinion too, 👍

3 hours ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

I’m not saying I agree, mind you, but there’s a perception hanging around that JA isn’t exactly the hardest worker in the off season … whether you believe this or think it’s BS, the narrative is out there. 

Yes, rumor control as usual is working overtime, 😁👍

[ndirish1978]

The Pass catching Depth chart will be

1. Dalton Kincaid
2. Shakir
3. Curtis S 
4. James Cook
5. Rookie
6. Rookie
7. Dawson Knox

Unless there is a major trade up, which I don't expect. This is what we're going to run with this year.

 

[Rocky Landing]

On 4/10/2024 at 1:25 PM, corta765 said:

Mock drafts, media analysis, bills fans, etc.. everyone has the Bills doing things to address the WR position with Diggs leaving and the larger hole that is now created. Realistically outside of a trade for a Aiyuk or Tee Higgins type player where it is established WR with a track record of production, the WR position will be a question and probably still an area of concern. Even if the Bills move up to draft one of the big three WRs there will be a question of immediate production and adjustment to the NFL. If the Bills move back and draft 2 WRs in rounds 2-3 your at least initially expectation wise at a lower starting point compared to one of the big three guys. The production Diggs had given even with the drop the back half of the season and the now loss of him and Davis production also is going to be a question for everyone and those stepping in. 

 

Is there a scenario for you that makes you comfortable with the position moving forward?

The trade for Diggs was a brilliant move by Beane at the time. With the trade of our first round pick, Beane essentially “drafted” a proven wide receiver. But that scenario doesn’t really exist for us this time around. There is no reasonable path to an Aiyuk, or Higgins, and at #28, regardless of which WR beyond Harrison falls to us, it’s never a good idea to hang your hat on a rookie. I keep thinking back on the insane trade-up for Sammy Watkins. Watkins was actually a decent, starting caliber WR, who’s had a decent career, but he never came anywhere close to the draft value the Bills placed on him. 
 

And, IMO, an important thing to consider in both the Diggs, and Watkins situations, is that in both scenarios, the Bills were working with solid, and deep defense. Currently, what would be the Bills starting eleven on D is average, at best, and paper thin beyond that.
 

Even after the Diggs trade to Houston, I’m not convinced that the Bills are destined to draft a WR in round one. If this WR class is as deep as folks are saying, and assuming the top three will be gone by #28, there will be solid WRs in round two. The same may not be said about the defensive needs we have. 
 

My hope is that Beane drafts BVPA at the numerous positions of need in the first round, and only trades up if there is real value in the trade. If that turns out to be a CB, or a safety, or a DE, or a WR, then so be it. His track record for trading in the draft is pretty damn good. 
 

As far as the question in the OP is concerned— I’m not as married to the idea of a WR in the first as everyone else seems to be. (Although Beane/McDermott might be fearing pitchforks, at this point…) I just want Beane to continue to do what he does— he’s creative, he’s always looking, and he clearly has developed solid relationships throughout the league.

[BigAl2526]

Comfortable?  Not at all.  I like Shakir and I think he can be productive.  Same thing with Samuel.  It's a stretch at this point to think that either one is a true #2 receiver, to say nothing of a #1 receiver.  One or the other might grow into that role, but it's not a sure thing.  Outside of Harrison, Nabers and Odunze, the other top receivers in the draft don't look like they are ready to step into a #1 role at the start.  They all have upside and some of them may grow into a #1 receiver role in the pros, but not likely to happen in 2023.  The Bills can shoot a wad of draft capital to trade up high enough to pick Nabers or Odunze tor they can draft someone lower and hope they get enough production in 2023 to remain a playoff contender and hopefully develop into a true #1. Then they also need to draft an additional guy to compete for depth and hopefully show potential as a #2.  The 2023 season was at least a mild disappointment from the standpoint of production from their # 1 and 2 receivers, but at least the season started with reasonable expectations.  Buffalo is going to start 2024 with more questions than answers.  They need some surprises to the upside.

[Einstein's Dog]

On 4/12/2024 at 4:52 PM, ndirish1978 said:

The Pass catching Depth chart will be

1. Dalton Kincaid
2. Shakir
3. Curtis S 
4. James Cook
5. Rookie
6. Rookie
7. Dawson Knox

Unless there is a major trade up, which I don't expect. This is what we're going to run with this year.

 

Wow, your chart screams rebuilding year which is something I thought the FO was trying to avoid.  I don't expect to be running with that.

 

You say "Unless there is a major trade up" which leaves out the trade option.  The trade option is the most non-rebuilding option there is.  The trade option is the safest method out there to replace Diggs - while hopefully leaving the draft to still get a G Davis replacement.

 

The high end trade options of J Jeff or B Aiyuk are excellent Diggs upgrades but infringe on the rest of team development in draft capital and money.  Then there are DHop/C Godwin/C Sutton types that could be had for a lot less yet still be looked at as Diggs replacements. Beane is not done yet.

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:

Comfortable?  Not at all.  I like Shakir and I think he can be productive.  Same thing with Samuel.  It's a stretch at this point to think that either one is a true #2 receiver, to say nothing of a #1 receiver.  One or the other might grow into that role, but it's not a sure thing.  Outside of Harrison, Nabers and Odunze, the other top receivers in the draft don't look like they are ready to step into a #1 role at the start.  They all have upside and some of them may grow into a #1 receiver role in the pros, but not likely to happen in 2023.  The Bills can shoot a wad of draft capital to trade up high enough to pick Nabers or Odunze tor they can draft someone lower and hope they get enough production in 2023 to remain a playoff contender and hopefully develop into a true #1. Then they also need to draft an additional guy to compete for depth and hopefully show potential as a #2.  The 2023 season was at least a mild disappointment from the standpoint of production from their # 1 and 2 receivers, but at least the season started with reasonable expectations.  Buffalo is going to start 2024 with more questions than answers.  They need some surprises to the upside.

 

 

I don't think it's any stretch at all to think Shakir can be a #2 with more targets now that they don't have to force so many to Diggs. Might not happen that way, but it surely could.

 

I'd agree that it's likely that anyone after the first three isn't likely to be a #1 early. Possible, but quite unlikely.

 

But you don't need a #1. You just don't. KC certainly didn't have one last year. Plenty of good teams have good groups rather than a #1 and can still be plenty productive.

 

With James Cook and particularly Kincaid, we show every sign of being able to have plenty of success if they can have a couple of WRs step up to #2 status, and I think it's pretty likely Shakir for one makes that leap.

 

 

[Nephilim17]

On 4/12/2024 at 4:52 PM, ndirish1978 said:

The Pass catching Depth chart will be

1. Dalton Kincaid
2. Shakir
3. Curtis S 
4. James Cook
5. Rookie
6. Rookie
7. Dawson Knox

Unless there is a major trade up, which I don't expect. This is what we're going to run with this year.

 

Cook is a good pass-catching back but he had 445 receiving yards in 2023.

I will give you 2 to 1 odds up to $100 on your end (I'll pay $200) that if we draft a rookie and that rookie plays at least 14 games (meaning, not injured more than 3 games) that the rookie passes Cook.

Our drafted WR will likely get 600 to 800 yards. If you think I'm high, let's have a bet. I'll do $10, whatever you like up to $100 on your end.

Edited April 15 by Nephilim17

[Fan in Chicago]

6 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

But you don't need a #1. You just don't. KC certainly didn't have one last year. Plenty of good teams have good groups rather than a #1 and can still be plenty productive.

 

With James Cook and particularly Kincaid, we show every sign of being able to have plenty of success if they can have a couple of WRs step up to #2 status, and I think it's pretty likely Shakir for one makes that leap.

 

 

I am with you on this. What is important is that there are receivers to challenge the D on every part of the field. We already have several to cover the short to medium (Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel). As long as we find 1 (ideally 2) through the draft and post draft cuts/trade, we didn't really need someone we can call a #1 for this year. 

Shakir, Kincaid and Samuel have good hands. As long as we have receivers who can be the go to guys for Allen at every level, we will be fine. But we are not there at this point if time 

[Beck Water]

On 4/11/2024 at 9:46 AM, corta765 said:

I am hoping that the WR corp can be like 2019 where Beasley and Brown came in and gave established solid production. Thing with that is Smoke still went for 1000 yds  6 TDs which for a rookie would be pretty impressive. But if between two rookies shakir samuel kincaid the end of year stat line is this I am happy with it (no order of who):

75 rec 925 yds 6 TDs

69 rec 855 yds 5 TDs

50 rec 625 yds 7 TD

47 rec 565 yds 3 TD

43 rec 510 yds  4 TDs

3480 yds 25 TDs

 

That isn't including Knox or RB etc.. but something like that would be solid even without a 1000 yd guy or anyone over 80 rec

 

You know that would be a drop-off of 5-10 TD, about 800 yds and 100 receptions for Josh Allen and the Bills, right?

[Sierra Foothills]

On 4/10/2024 at 2:29 PM, ControllerOfPlanetX said:

Just need to perfect this:

 

 

On 4/10/2024 at 5:50 PM, Neo said:

Hornung and Kramer …

 

Lombardi: "Gentlemen, this is a football."

 

Max McGee: "“Uh, Coach, could you slow down a little?"

 

On 4/10/2024 at 4:46 PM, smward8 said:

I'm curious how Shorter and Hamlet figure into the mix.

 

"To thine own self be true!"

 

On 4/11/2024 at 12:41 AM, Thrivefourfive said:

People, please stop comparing to the Chiefs. They have a masterful play designer/caller and a much much much better defense. Allen and Mahomes is the fair comparison. I believe that Allen will be A okay without Diggs.

 

On 4/11/2024 at 4:28 AM, Thurman#1 said:

Nah.

 

Until our waves of defensive injuries our D was just as good.

 

The game itself was extremely close, and for good reason. It came down to 1 or 2 plays despite out ravaged D. It's a totally fair comparison between the two teams.

 

The margin of their defense being better was with Chris Jones.

 

He had an unmistakable impact on the game that we had no answer for.

 

[hondo in seattle]

Obviously, I'm interested in seeing who the Bills do and don't draft.  But I think Brady is the biggest wildcard when it comes to the production of our wideouts.  If it turns out he's good at scheming guys open, something he did not prove last year, we'll be fine.  If he's not, even drafting one of the better rookie's won't optimize Josh's potential.  

[<bills4life>]

On 4/12/2024 at 6:35 PM, Rocky Landing said:

The trade for Diggs was a brilliant move by Beane at the time. With the trade of our first round pick, Beane essentially “drafted” a proven wide receiver. But that scenario doesn’t really exist for us this time around. There is no reasonable path to an Aiyuk, or Higgins, and at #28, regardless of which WR beyond Harrison falls to us, it’s never a good idea to hang your hat on a rookie. I keep thinking back on the insane trade-up for Sammy Watkins. Watkins was actually a decent, starting caliber WR, who’s had a decent career, but he never came anywhere close to the draft value the Bills placed on him. 
 

And, IMO, an important thing to consider in both the Diggs, and Watkins situations, is that in both scenarios, the Bills were working with solid, and deep defense. Currently, what would be the Bills starting eleven on D is average, at best, and paper thin beyond that.
 

Even after the Diggs trade to Houston, I’m not convinced that the Bills are destined to draft a WR in round one. If this WR class is as deep as folks are saying, and assuming the top three will be gone by #28, there will be solid WRs in round two. The same may not be said about the defensive needs we have. 
 

My hope is that Beane drafts BVPA at the numerous positions of need in the first round, and only trades up if there is real value in the trade. If that turns out to be a CB, or a safety, or a DE, or a WR, then so be it. His track record for trading in the draft is pretty damn good. 
 

As far as the question in the OP is concerned— I’m not as married to the idea of a WR in the first as everyone else seems to be. (Although Beane/McDermott might be fearing pitchforks, at this point…) I just want Beane to continue to do what he does— he’s creative, he’s always looking, and he clearly has developed solid relationships throughout the league.

Not using our draft capital early and often in arguably one of the best wr drafts in a long time would be a huge mistake. You don’t like a wr at 28? Then move back and obtain more capital. Drafting more players on defense early is pure arrogance.  If your coaches claim to fame is defense then let him prove it.  Beane has invested hardly anything into the wr room (high draft choice). This needs to change. 

[Kirby Jackson]

On 4/10/2024 at 4:25 PM, corta765 said:

Mock drafts, media analysis, bills fans, etc.. everyone has the Bills doing things to address the WR position with Diggs leaving and the larger hole that is now created. Realistically outside of a trade for a Aiyuk or Tee Higgins type player where it is established WR with a track record of production, the WR position will be a question and probably still an area of concern. Even if the Bills move up to draft one of the big three WRs there will be a question of immediate production and adjustment to the NFL. If the Bills move back and draft 2 WRs in rounds 2-3 your at least initially expectation wise at a lower starting point compared to one of the big three guys. The production Diggs had given even with the drop the back half of the season and the now loss of him and Davis production also is going to be a question for everyone and those stepping in. 

 

Is there a scenario for you that makes you comfortable with the position moving forward?

I don’t see any questions or periods of adjustment with the big 3. That’s a big reason why I want the move up. This holds especially true for MHJ. He’s 1200 yards & 8+ TDs as a rookie. WR translates pretty easily. Any of the 3 is WR1 in the first day and a difference maker.

 

The only concern for me on a big trade up is that it still leaves a hole at WR2. There are still some FAs and guys that will be around in round 4. I don’t think that they have another pure boundary WR on the roster (unless Shorter comes out of nowhere). If they’re using their 2nd as part of the package to go up you’re going to be thin on the boundary. 
 

I guess that if they go up into the top 10, my hope is that they can preserve 60  in this draft. Maybe the package is something like 28, 128, ‘25 1st & ‘25 Vikings 2nd. They could then use 60 to get a guy like Pearsall. Now, you’re in a good spot at WR and a GREAT spot financially at the position.
 

 

[NoSaint]

On 4/10/2024 at 6:46 PM, smward8 said:

I'm curious how Shorter and Hamlet figure into the mix.  Shorter is kind of like Davis, and Hamler, when he isn't injured, is a speed guy who can stretch the field.

You pencil in no production and enjoy literally anything from them 

[finn]

On 4/10/2024 at 4:54 PM, Malazan said:

You just figured out that a draft pick isn't going to 'answer' the position before ever taking a snap in the NFL?

That's what I tell myself when I find myself obsession about the draft. As Marv Levy always said, it's about last year's rookies (and sophomores) not this years. So Shakir, Benford, Bernard, Kincaid, Torrence, and Cook, with Dorian Williams and Spector singing backup, and, hopefully Elam and Shorter doing something to help. That's six young starters and four others that might be a lot better this year. Promising. 

 

The top two rookies might contribute significantly, like Kincaid did last year, but it's not likely they'll make a huge difference. If the Bills go all the way, it'll be because the current roster  of young players improves. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

I think there are a LOT of people that are setting themselves up for disappointment on draft night when Beane doesn't trade up into the top 10. 

[Freddie's Dead]

On 4/10/2024 at 4:25 PM, corta765 said:

Is there a scenario for you that makes you comfortable with the position moving forward?

 

Not really.  I expect lots of growing pains this year.  We may have a chance to get it together in time to make a playoff run, but I'm from Missouri on this one.

On 4/10/2024 at 4:35 PM, TYSONKO1 said:

Propofol

 

We picked a bad week to quit sniffin' glue...