How to Pick a Top WR

[Thurman#1]

On 4/11/2024 at 12:01 AM, Bruffalo said:

WR is arguably the 2nd most important position in Football.  If you're not moving up, I think double dipping becomes necessary. You might even want a 3rd later round guy for bottom of the roster competition. 

 

I get that there are other holes like DT, Safety, EDGE but we actually have serviceable players right now in those positions, which is just not the case at WR.   

 

 

I see what you're saying her, but I think that's a stretch, WR at 2nd most important position.

 

Pass-rushing DE is an important factor on every pass play and many run plays.

 

Receivers are window dressing on most run plays and most pass plays where they don't get looked at or thrown to. I put reciever tied for 3rd, myself.

 

And while the Bills have serviceable EDGEs, we don't have a serviceable pass rushing EDGE across from Groot unless we get lucky with Von Miller. Could happen but it should absolutely not be counted on. If you can't pressure Mahomes better than we have, you aren't going to have much luck against him. And we lost our best sack artist this off-season and haven't brought in another. I'm not worried about us being able to set the edge, but rushing the passer? Yeah, I'm worried.

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Smith was possibly somewhere between the two tiers kinda 1 and a half. But I take the point. The guy considered closest to "can't miss" that has been a high profile bust (or at least overdraft) has been Jeudy.

 

I got a little curious and clicked through a few old profiles and will agree that the smith writeups/grades were a shade higher than I expected. In my head he wasn’t a guy that had quite the accolades that he actually did 

 

i keep think of jamarr chase as that gold standard type player, right? Prototype athleticism, big production, and both a high floor and a high ceiling. Unlikely to bust, and truly having expectation that he could be in the rare air at the top. The Andrew luck qb. The aj green/Julio Jones draft year for wr.
 

I’ll be totally honest, I haven’t spent a ton with this set of 3. Post-diggs I spent a little more and am working on my opinions that I think they are a cut above the normal top wr prospects, and working on whether my convictions are truly in the next level or if there may be some 1.5er talent mixed in there like you referred to smith (and of course that doesn’t mean bust like smith but more potential on the table for that to happen). 

 

Edited April 13 by NoSaint

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

I got a little curious and clicked through a few old profiles and will agree that the smith writeups/grades were a shade higher than I expected. In my head he wasn’t a guy that had quite the accolades that he actually did 

 

i keep think of jamarr chase as that gold standard type player, right? Prototype athleticism, big production, and both a high floor and a high ceiling. Unlikely to bust, and truly having expectation that he could be in the rare air at the top. The Andrew luck qb. The aj green/Julio Jones draft year for wr.
 

I’ll be totally honest, I haven’t spent a ton with this set of 3. Post-diggs I spent a little more and am working on my opinions that I think they are a cut above the normal top wr prospects, and working on whether my convictions are truly in the next level or if there may be some 1.5er talent mixed in there like you referred to smith (and of course that doesn’t mean bust like smith but more potential on the table for that to happen). 

 

 

Personally I have Harrison and Nabers in the gold standard category. Odunze more in the Smith space. But these 3 are all legit. As said the other day they are better than every receiver last year and by most consensus 2022 as well (although I was high on Olave that year). 

[Billsatlastin2018]

Critical WR Requirements:

 

1) Catch the freaking ball;

2) Gain separation and catch the freaking ball;

3) Have the size and ability to catch the freaking contested ball.

 

4) See 1-3.

[Charles Romes]

On 4/9/2024 at 3:48 PM, Beck Water said:

If you want measurables or scouting reports, move on now.

 

I thought it would be interesting to look at where some of the top WR were drafted.

 

I started by looking at Y/G for the top-20 WR for the last 3 years.  I used Y/G to normalize for  injuries to WR or QB.

 

There were 8 guys who have been in the top 20 for 3 years, showing consistency.

Draft position: round-overall pick

1-5

1-17

1-22

2-51
2-53
3-76

5-146
5-165

 

 

3 from Rd 1 (1 top 10 pick, 2 from the bottom half of the round)

2 from Rd 2

1 from Rd 3

2 from Rd 5

 

Another 8 guys 2 of 3 years: round-overall pick

1-4

1-6

1-7
1-7

1-11
1-24

3-69

3-84

 

Adding both groups together

9 from Rd 1 (5 top-10 picks, 1 top half of the 1st, 3 bottom half)

2 from Rd 2

3 from Rd 3

2 from Rd 5

 

12 guys who appeared in the top-20 1 of 3 years (keep in mind, this includes rookies and guys whose QB fell to injury): round-overall pick

1-25

1-27

2-33

2-34

2-36

2-52

2-64

3-66

3-69

3-89

4-112

5-177

 

Adding all 3 groups together

11 from Rd 1 (5 top-10 picks, 1 top half, 5 bottom half)

7 from Rd 2 (3 early 2nd, 4 2nd half of the 2nd)

6 from Rd 3

1 from Rd 4

3 from Rd 5

 

So, of 28 WR who have been top-20 for at least 1 of the past 3 years:

39% from Rd 1 (5 top-10, 1 top half, 5 bottom half)

25% from Rd 2

21% from Rd 3

4% from Rd 4

11% from Rd 5

What's my takehome from this?  The odds are highest to get a top WR in the 1st, but the chances are about even between the top and bottom half of the round.

Pretty good odds from Rd 2 and 3

After that, you can still draft a good WR but, it's a lottery ticket

 

If I feel energetic, I may go back and look at how many WR were drafted ahead of each of these guys.

 

 

 

 

 

I agree there is a distribution. But within the top statistical players there are a lot of smaller receivers who work the slot. To get the prototypical big X like we need you generally need to reach higher on the draft board.