How to Pick a Top WR

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

31 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Unlikely Thomas is there, and only possible Mitchell will be. McConkey and Franklin for sure are gone well before #60. 

If you want two early, you have to trade up from #60, imo. I would add Legette to the list, personally.

 

Someone from the top group has to fall because I don't think we'll have 7 receivers go in the 1st round like a lot of mocks are showing. Teams also have access to prospects'  medical information that isn't publicly known, which can cause a prospect to fall.

 

I just hope Beane doesn't get antsy and trade up for a wide receiver in a draft with this much depth.

[ddaryl]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

So, never take a receiver in round 4. That's my takeaway.

 

You read that differently...    Round 4 is due!!!

 

Chips in

 

Edited April 10 by ddaryl

[EmotionallyUnstable]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

So for anyone curious, the receivers who have been in the top 20 the past 3 seasons are:

Tyreek Hill (Rd 5 pick 165); Justin Jefferson (Rd 1 pick 22); CeeDee Lamb (Rd 1 Pick 17); Keenan Allen (Rd 3 Pick 76); AJ Brown (Rd 2 Pick 51); Ja'Maar Chase (Rd 1 Pick 5); Stefan Diggs (Rd 5 Pick 146); DaVante Adams (Rd 2 Pick 53)

 

That's in order for Yards per Game 2023.

In the past, when a draft has been regarded as "deep" at a position, Beane has sometimes drafted that position in later rounds with the idea that "we can get a guy later on who can help us".  

There were 16 WR drafted before Gabe Davis in 2020.  Using pro.football.reference wAV as a metric (it's not perfect but it seems to be decent), 5 of them have contributed more than Davis: CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman Jr, and Tee Higgins.  There were 18 WR drafted after Davis, one (Darnell Mooney) has been close to Davis in production.  So basically he's contributed more than 11 WR taken before him in the 1st through 3rd rounds, and we didn't leave any obvious "gems" behind us.

 

There were 20 WR drafted before Khalil Shakir in 2022.  Again using AAV, 7 have contributed more and 1 equally to Shakir: Drake Wilson, Garrett London, and Chris Olave in the first; Christian Watkins, George Pickens, and Alec Wilson (close to KS) in the 2nd, and Romeo Doubs in the 4th. Jahan Dodson is "same".  So basically Shakir has contributed more than 2 WR and equal to another WR drafted in the 1st; more than 4 WR drafted in the 2nd; more than 6 WR drafted before him in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  There were 7 WR drafted after him, none have contributed as much, so no obvious gems behind us.

I'm not pointing this out to argue for waiting to draft a WR, but to point out that there is that element of a "crap shoot" in the draft, where you know the probability is higher to draft a player who is really good and can contribute right away in the 1st round, but it's far from certainty.

 

And maybe you need a little luck.

I would be so interested to see this love child 😭 

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

For me, I look at size, production and athletic ability via combine and pro days. Then I look at tape. I take the Bill Parcell’s approach to the Draft, but then again, I’m just a passionate fan and not a professional, but I know enough to have an opinion on some things.

Is there a projected "diva test" that they can take before the draft. That would be very helpful. 

1 hour ago, Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD said:

I would rather take a wr in both the 1st and 2nd round than trade up to the top 15 for a receiver.

 

Adonai Mitchell or Brian Thomas may be there at #28 and then take McConkey, Franklin, or Wilson at #60.

As of this week, this is the scenario I'm hoping happens.  I have a funny feeling both Thomas & Mitchell fall to us @ 28. So it will be up to the scouts not to screw this up. I would consider using a 5th to move up in the 2nd for another wr.

[Dr. Who]

30 minutes ago, Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD said:

Someone from the top group has to fall because I don't think we'll have 7 receivers go in the 1st round like a lot of mocks are showing. Teams also have access to prospects'  medical information that isn't publicly known, which can cause a prospect to fall.

 

I just hope Beane doesn't get antsy and trade up for a wide receiver in a draft with this much depth.

Well, I guess it depends what you mean by fall, and who you think are WR 4 - 6. Regardless, all the tier 2 and probably tier 3 will be gone by the mid-forties. Maybe Polk makes it to #60, and I would take him if that were the case.

[MiracleAtRich1393]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

So, never take a receiver in round 4. That's my takeaway.

Gabe 🥺

[Breakout Squad]

Trade up and get Nabers even if it means trading this years and next years 1st plus whatever the trade chart says. It gives us an amazing #1 WR and the rest of the holes on the team can be fixed easily. 

[NoSaint]

Maybe I am using hindsight but when recalling top ten WR the last decade I dont recall white, Ross or Davis being considered can’t miss generational talents in the way you do these 3, chase, Julio/green were considered THAT guy. 
 

I won’t say I’m an expert in this top three but it feels like they are universally regarded in that tier that doesn’t bust much as opposed to the other category that were just the best options in their given year.

 

the Ross/white/waddle/smith/London/Wilson  crew feel like they are more akin to this years second tier and those are coin flip guys. 

[BCAS Baritone]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

So, never take a receiver in round 4. That's my takeaway.

 

Andre Reed would like a word with you ...

 

Edited April 10 by BCAS Baritone
multiple entries

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD said:

I would rather take a wr in both the 1st and 2nd round than trade up to the top 15 for a receiver.

 

Adonai Mitchell or Brian Thomas may be there at #28 and then take McConkey, Franklin, or Wilson at #60.

 

I understand that POV, I just want to point out that going into the draft with either mindset, may not lead to the best outcome.

 

I think it's possible that to get a guy they regard as a first round talent, the Bills may not be able to "stand pat" at Pick 28.  So they're probably going to have to move up in the 1st round.  In the last 7 years, there's only been 1 - 1st round pick later than pick #27 and that was in a "poor" WR year.  Factor in that Beane has pretty well telegraphed his intentions as to which way the Bills will jump, teams drafting near us who want a guy, may well jump us.

 

So we may need to trade up in the 1st, but not necessarily to top 15.  Maybe just 3-8 picks.

 

I also think that Beane went into the 2021 draft with the absolute mindset that Job #1 was to "affect the QB".  As a result, we wound up with Boogie Basham in the 2nd round, a "high floor low ceiling" player whose floor turned out to be lower than we thought.  With the benefit of hindsight, there were DLmen drafted later who might have been a better use of the pick, and other positions that would have helped the Bills more in the 2nd round.  Creed Humphrey or Osa Odighizuwa anyone?

I would like the Bills to draft two WR, I think when we look at situations like Kaiir Elam and Christian Benford, or the fact that Shakir seems to be shaping as a better WR than a whole bunch who were drafted earlier - I'm not stuck on draft WR in the 1st and 2nd as the best notion.

[ghostwriter]

1 hour ago, Breakout Squad said:

Trade up and get Nabers even if it means trading this years and next years 1st plus whatever the trade chart says. It gives us an amazing #1 WR and the rest of the holes on the team can be fixed easily. 

Everyone talks about MHJ but Nabers is as good as any prospect that I’ve seen over the last five years, but as good as he is, I can’t justify giving up that much for him. I’d rather we stay put, trade down or trade up in the 2nd round.

 

Only a QB is worth that much capital.

[SoonerBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD said:

Someone from the top group has to fall because I don't think we'll have 7 receivers go in the 1st round like a lot of mocks are showing. Teams also have access to prospects'  medical information that isn't publicly known, which can cause a prospect to fall.

 

I just hope Beane doesn't get antsy and trade up for a wide receiver in a draft with this much depth.

But what kind of depth are we talking about?  Are there 10 guys who can #1 WR's?  Cosell has 3 immediate guys and 2 that should become a #1 according to his scouting.

 

Do you say wait to draft a guy that will develop into a really good #2 and that's it?  

[In Summary]

5 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

Trade back and collect day 2 guys like it's going out of style

Beane will want to get back into the 3rd almost as much as he'll want to move up in the first.  Will be difficult to do both unless he foolishly gives away next year's picks. 

[MiracleAtRich1393]

3 minutes ago, In Summary said:

Beane will want to get back into the 3rd almost as much as he'll want to move up in the first.  Will be difficult to do both unless he foolishly gives away next year's picks. 

Is there an argument to be made to pull forward picks to this year for difference makers on cheap contracts then spend big in FA next year on remaining holes with all the cap that's been cleared which then starts the new 3-4 year window with the new stadium?

Edited April 10 by MiracleAtRich1393

[In Summary]

1 minute ago, MiracleAtRich1393 said:

Is there an argument to be made to pull forward picks to this year for difference makers on cheap contracts then spend big in FA next year on remaining holes with all the cap that's been cleared? 

Rookies on cheap contracts certainly makes a good case.

 

If trading next year's 2nd gives 3rd round value this year, I'd probably pass. 

[Thrivefourfive]

They’re all smooth. The whole lot of them. From Rice to Swann, to Warfield. The guys today all have that silk factor. 
 

They’re not surprised that they caught it. How many receivers make the catch and then pause, then go. 
 

They’re fast.
 

They’re fearless.

 

Antonio Brown. He would not, and may never, be drafted in the top of a draft. Being a ruthless mauler for the football doesn’t really pop on draft boards. The next Antonio Brown is around, and the Bills should be the one to find him. Hopefully this future hall of famer will have his brain pointing the right direction inside his skull. 

[FireChans]

39 minutes ago, In Summary said:

Beane will want to get back into the 3rd almost as much as he'll want to move up in the first.  Will be difficult to do both unless he foolishly gives away next year's picks. 

Foolishly giving away next years picks?

 

Is this the “why would you trade a pick to get (that guy) argument? That pick could’ve been anything!” argument?

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

I would like the Bills to draft two WR, I think when we look at situations like Kaiir Elam and Christian Benford, or the fact that Shakir seems to be shaping as a better WR than a whole bunch who were drafted earlier - I'm not stuck on draft WR in the 1st and 2nd as the best notion

Shakir had the luxury of playing with Josh Allen and basically becoming WR1 mid season.

Gabe Davis has been a far more consistent producer than Darnell Mooney and yet they got similar money because Mooney was playing with a QB who couldn’t throw and Gabe was playing with one of the best in the game. Teams clearly take that into account.

[Beck Water]

3 hours ago, Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD said:

Someone from the top group has to fall because I don't think we'll have 7 receivers go in the 1st round like a lot of mocks are showing. Teams also have access to prospects'  medical information that isn't publicly known, which can cause a prospect to fall.

 

I just hope Beane doesn't get antsy and trade up for a wide receiver in a draft with this much depth.

 

Love the screen name change BTW.

So one of the reasons I did the thing I posted in the "WR scenario" thread was to answer questions like this for myself - "has there been a recent draft where 7 WR were drafted in the 1st round?" 

 

And for the last 7 years drafts, the answer to that is "no" - but there were 2 drafts with 6 WR in the 1st, 2020 and 2022.

 

In 2020, 2 additional WR then went in the top of the 2nd round, picks 33 and 34.  The best WR was arguably the 3rd or the 5th WR chosen, with the 6th - 8th being better than the 1,2,or 4th.

In 2022, there was an additional 7th WR selected at the top of the 2nd round as well.

[chris heff]

14 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

So for anyone curious, the receivers who have been in the top 20 the past 3 seasons are:

Tyreek Hill (Rd 5 pick 165); Justin Jefferson (Rd 1 pick 22); CeeDee Lamb (Rd 1 Pick 17); Keenan Allen (Rd 3 Pick 76); AJ Brown (Rd 2 Pick 51); Ja'Maar Chase (Rd 1 Pick 5); Stefan Diggs (Rd 5 Pick 146); DaVante Adams (Rd 2 Pick 53)

 

That's in order for Yards per Game 2023.

In the past, when a draft has been regarded as "deep" at a position, Beane has sometimes drafted that position in later rounds with the idea that "we can get a guy later on who can help us".  

There were 16 WR drafted before Gabe Davis in 2020.  Using pro.football.reference wAV as a metric (it's not perfect but it seems to be decent), 5 of them have contributed more than Davis: CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman Jr, and Tee Higgins.  There were 18 WR drafted after Davis, one (Darnell Mooney) has been close to Davis in production.  So basically he's contributed more than 11 WR taken before him in the 1st through 3rd rounds, and we didn't leave any obvious "gems" behind us.

 

There were 20 WR drafted before Khalil Shakir in 2022.  Again using AAV, 7 have contributed more and 1 equally to Shakir: Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave in the first; Christian Watkins, George Pickens, and Alec Wilson (close to KS) in the 2nd, and Romeo Doubs in the 4th. Jahan Dodson is "same".  So basically Shakir has contributed more than 2 WR and equal to another WR drafted in the 1st; more than 4 WR drafted in the 2nd; more than 6 WR drafted before him in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  There were 7 WR drafted after him, none have contributed as much, so no obvious gems behind us.

I'm not pointing this out to argue for waiting to draft a WR, but to point out that there is that element of a "crap shoot" in the draft, where you know the probability is higher to draft a player who is really good and can contribute right away in the 1st round, but it's far from certainty.

 

And maybe you need a little luck.

Which is why you take two early, it increases the odds.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

13 hours ago, BCAS Baritone said:

 

Andre Reed would like a word with you ...

 

Well obviously he wasn't going to be a 4th round bust because he came from the much-heralded WR factory grounds of Kutztown State!