How to Pick a Top WR

[Beck Water]

If you want measurables or scouting reports, move on now.

 

I thought it would be interesting to look at where some of the top WR were drafted.

 

I started by looking at Y/G for the top-20 WR for the last 3 years.  I used Y/G to normalize for  injuries to WR or QB.

 

There were 8 guys who have been in the top 20 for 3 years, showing consistency.

Draft position: round-overall pick

1-5

1-17

1-22

2-51
2-53
3-76

5-146
5-165

 

 

3 from Rd 1 (1 top 10 pick, 2 from the bottom half of the round)

2 from Rd 2

1 from Rd 3

2 from Rd 5

 

Another 8 guys 2 of 3 years: round-overall pick

1-4

1-6

1-7
1-7

1-11
1-24

3-69

3-84

 

Adding both groups together

9 from Rd 1 (5 top-10 picks, 1 top half of the 1st, 3 bottom half)

2 from Rd 2

3 from Rd 3

2 from Rd 5

 

12 guys who appeared in the top-20 1 of 3 years (keep in mind, this includes rookies and guys whose QB fell to injury): round-overall pick

1-25

1-27

2-33

2-34

2-36

2-52

2-64

3-66

3-69

3-89

4-112

5-177

 

Adding all 3 groups together

11 from Rd 1 (5 top-10 picks, 1 top half, 5 bottom half)

7 from Rd 2 (3 early 2nd, 4 2nd half of the 2nd)

6 from Rd 3

1 from Rd 4

3 from Rd 5

 

So, of 28 WR who have been top-20 for at least 1 of the past 3 years:

39% from Rd 1 (5 top-10, 1 top half, 5 bottom half)

25% from Rd 2

21% from Rd 3

4% from Rd 4

11% from Rd 5

What's my takehome from this?  The odds are highest to get a top WR in the 1st, but the chances are about even between the top and bottom half of the round.

Pretty good odds from Rd 2 and 3

After that, you can still draft a good WR but, it's a lottery ticket

 

If I feel energetic, I may go back and look at how many WR were drafted ahead of each of these guys.

 

 

 

 

[PromoTheRobot]

Step 1. Only pick good players. 

Step 2. Profit.

[ghostwriter]

For me, I look at size, production and athletic ability via combine and pro days. Then I look at tape. I take the Bill Parcell’s approach to the Draft, but then again, I’m just a passionate fan and not a professional, but I know enough to have an opinion on some things.

[njbuff]

For Josh Allen......

 

it's a receiver or 2 that can HOLD ON TO THE FREAKING BALL. 

[Augie]

Barely any difference between rounds 2 and 3 is interesting. If only we had……n/m

[nedboy7]

So many good WRs were chosen after the 1st.  I have come around on the idea of trading up.  I think stay put and grab hopefully 2 WRs.  I am ok with a small trade up to get your guy,  but not into the top ten or teens. 

 

many great receivers of the past decade were drafted in the second round, including A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Michael Thomas and Davante Adams. And other stellar wideouts were taken even later, including Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, Terry McLaurin, Chris Godwin and Keenan Allen.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

 Honestly, I'd love a big swing in EITHER direction, either trade WAY up or trade down and take a billion shots at the pinata

 

 

[K D]

Trade back and collect day 2 guys like it's going out of style

[BuffaloMatt]

Go defense in round 1

[SoonerBillsFan]

59 minutes ago, njbuff said:

For Josh Allen......

 

it's a receiver or 2 that can HOLD ON TO THE FREAKING BALL. 

Slight additions to your comment.  Both get open and catch the call CONSISTENTLY. 

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

If you want measurables or scouting reports, move on now.

 

I thought it would be interesting to look at where some of the top WR were drafted.

 

I started by looking at Y/G for the top-20 WR for the last 3 years.  I used Y/G to normalize for  injuries to WR or QB.

 

There were 8 guys who have been in the top 20 for 3 years, showing consistency.

Draft position: round-overall pick

1-5

1-17

1-22

2-51
2-53
3-76

5-146
5-165

 

 

3 from Rd 1 (1 top 10 pick, 2 from the bottom half of the round)

2 from Rd 2

1 from Rd 3

2 from Rd 5

 

Another 8 guys 2 of 3 years: round-overall pick

1-4

1-6

1-7
1-7

1-11
1-24

3-69

3-84

 

Adding both groups together

9 from Rd 1 (5 top-10 picks, 1 top half of the 1st, 3 bottom half)

2 from Rd 2

3 from Rd 3

2 from Rd 5

 

12 guys who appeared in the top-20 1 of 3 years (keep in mind, this includes rookies and guys whose QB fell to injury): round-overall pick

1-25

1-27

2-33

2-34

2-36

2-52

2-64

3-66

3-69

3-89

4-112

5-177

 

Adding all 3 groups together

11 from Rd 1 (5 top-10 picks, 1 top half, 5 bottom half)

7 from Rd 2 (3 early 2nd, 4 2nd half of the 2nd)

6 from Rd 3

1 from Rd 4

3 from Rd 5

 

So, of 28 WR who have been top-20 for at least 1 of the past 3 years:

39% from Rd 1 (5 top-10, 1 top half, 5 bottom half)

25% from Rd 2

21% from Rd 3

4% from Rd 4

11% from Rd 5

What's my takehome from this?  The odds are highest to get a top WR in the 1st, but the chances are about even between the top and bottom half of the round.

Pretty good odds from Rd 2 and 3

After that, you can still draft a good WR but, it's a lottery ticket

 

If I feel energetic, I may go back and look at how many WR were drafted ahead of each of these guys.

 

 

 

 

I do love your work ! for real. Taking Y/G is is a great sorting to find how the 1 rounds drafts were able to acclimate to the NFL 

 

But it also reminded me how so very many factors come into the equation. And statistics may too straightforward to isolate as well as group some together.

I am big on Fitment.

Right team and system.

 OC and Coaches alike. Can they develop WRs.

System likely defines who they bring in. better choose well

May I suggest Gabe Davis. Did they not get the most out of him  ? ( we shall see soon) or did they pick the wrong player

 another issue of context might be , does the Team change OC during the players 1st 3 years ? 

QB changes most obviously. More of course

 

But seriously excellent data breakdown Beck . greatly appreciated by All I am sure
Find the right one who can elevate your current system and future state for 4-5 years or more.

And find Him in the 1st, seems to be the answer. Simple eh ?  ha ha

19 minutes ago, BuffaloMatt said:

Go defense in round 1

we need more emoji stickers.

6 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Slight additions to your comment.  Both get open and catch the call CONSISTENTLY. 

Big ask Sooner !

[Dunkirk Donski]

Once we get this all figured out can someone send a “best of OBD” over to Beane and Co. to make sure they get it right? 

[Aussie Joe]

Since Diggs .. I’m starting to talk myself into a guy like McMillan or Baker…if you got one of them ..provided they were paired with an earlier pick say Mitchell, Legette or McConkey.. I think  I’d be happy with that ..  

 

I mean ..could they even get that accomplished with a trade down from 28 into the mid/ late thirties in return  for a third round for say Javon  Baker … and picking for example a D lineman at 60?

 

Probably the best case scenario for the draft … if you didn’t want to trade up 

 

 

 

Edited April 9 by Aussie Joe

[GASabresIUFan]

With the 28th pick in the 2024 NFL draft the Buffalo Bills select …….

[MJS]

So, never take a receiver in round 4. That's my takeaway.

[chris heff]

I have no idea.

[Beck Water]

5 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

So many good WRs were chosen after the 1st.  I have come around on the idea of trading up.  I think stay put and grab hopefully 2 WRs.  I am ok with a small trade up to get your guy,  but not into the top ten or teens. 

 

many great receivers of the past decade were drafted in the second round, including A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Michael Thomas and Davante Adams. And other stellar wideouts were taken even later, including Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, Terry McLaurin, Chris Godwin and Keenan Allen.

 

So for anyone curious, the receivers who have been in the top 20 the past 3 seasons are:

Tyreek Hill (Rd 5 pick 165); Justin Jefferson (Rd 1 pick 22); CeeDee Lamb (Rd 1 Pick 17); Keenan Allen (Rd 3 Pick 76); AJ Brown (Rd 2 Pick 51); Ja'Maar Chase (Rd 1 Pick 5); Stefan Diggs (Rd 5 Pick 146); DaVante Adams (Rd 2 Pick 53)

 

That's in order for Yards per Game 2023.

In the past, when a draft has been regarded as "deep" at a position, Beane has sometimes drafted that position in later rounds with the idea that "we can get a guy later on who can help us".  

There were 16 WR drafted before Gabe Davis in 2020.  Using pro.football.reference wAV as a metric (it's not perfect but it seems to be decent), 5 of them have contributed more than Davis: CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman Jr, and Tee Higgins.  There were 18 WR drafted after Davis, one (Darnell Mooney) has been close to Davis in production.  So basically he's contributed more than 11 WR taken before him in the 1st through 3rd rounds, and we didn't leave any obvious "gems" behind us.

 

There were 20 WR drafted before Khalil Shakir in 2022.  Again using AAV, 7 have contributed more and 1 equally to Shakir: Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave in the first; Christian Watkins, George Pickens, and Alec Wilson (close to KS) in the 2nd, and Romeo Doubs in the 4th. Jahan Dodson is "same".  So basically Shakir has contributed more than 2 WR and equal to another WR drafted in the 1st; more than 4 WR drafted in the 2nd; more than 6 WR drafted before him in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  There were 7 WR drafted after him, none have contributed as much, so no obvious gems behind us.

I'm not pointing this out to argue for waiting to draft a WR, but to point out that there is that element of a "crap shoot" in the draft, where you know the probability is higher to draft a player who is really good and can contribute right away in the 1st round, but it's far from certainty.

 

And maybe you need a little luck.

Edited April 10 by Beck Water

[Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD]

I would rather take a wr in both the 1st and 2nd round than trade up to the top 15 for a receiver.

 

Adonai Mitchell or Brian Thomas may be there at #28 and then take McConkey, Franklin, or Wilson at #60.

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD said:

I would rather take a wr in both the 1st and 2nd round than trade up to the top 15 for a receiver.

 

Adonai Mitchell or Brian Thomas may be there at #28 and then take McConkey, Franklin, or Wilson at #60.

Unlikely Thomas is there, and only possible Mitchell will be. McConkey and Franklin for sure are gone well before #60. 

If you want two early, you have to trade up from #60, imo. I would add Legette to the list, personally.

 

[LeGOATski]

Get your WR1 from somewhere in the first 3 rounds.

 

Got it.