How should we address WR?

[ghostwriter]

11 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

You can get busts at WR in the early to mid first round, you can find pretty good guys late in the first round or even the 2nd round or 3rd round historically.  If someone presents you with a deal to move up that you can't pass up, then do it to get a higher rated guy. But I don't overpay to move up, or maybe even 'pay up' to market rate.  As others have said, you aren't totally devoid of weapons right now. Sure you'd like another one but its not sinking the team. Also, its obvious this year the team is in transition, this year, and likely next year, there is going to be a LOT of opportunity to fill spots on this roster for the next few years.  Beane has some misses drafting high, but also has made some good picks in the middle rounds. I want as many 'lottery ticket' middle round picks to see how many of those spots/holes can be filled around the entire roster.

Once you get to the 5th round and beyond it’s like finding a needle in a haystack. The top 50-64 picks are where your premium players are.

[chris heff]

1 minute ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

1. Jefferson is a top 3 WR and a proven superstar. He's still young and has many years of superstar status

2. The draft is a lottery and there is no guarantee the two young players will be any good

3. I want to win now at all costs.  

Other than Randy Moss, did Brady ever have a superstar receiver? Mahomes won last two Superbowls with no superstar receiver. Draft is a crapshoot, which is why I’d take two WR. I’ve been a fan since 1963, not many have suffered longer.

9 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

This is where I disagree. Beane made a power play by trading Diggs away and eating up all that cap space. He better deliver the goods and not come up empty handed. The pressure is on.

That’s another reason to double down on WRs in this draft.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Just now, chris heff said:

Other than Randy Moss, did Brady ever have a superstar receiver? Mahomes won last two Superbowls with no superstar receiver. Draft is a crapshoot, which is why I’d take two WR. I’ve been a fan since 1963, not many have suffered longer.

So you should want to win now. Go for the proven commodity! 

Manning won with Harrison and Wayne. Young and Montana had Rice. 

Brady and Mahommes had two of the three best tight ends in NFL history.  Brady had two of the best slot WRs in NFL history in Edelman and Welker.  People act like Brady and these other QBs did not have weapons.  They played with some of the best players at their positions in NFL history.  Maybe Kincaid is in that category. He certainly has started career well. 

[JohnnyK]

BPA at 28, WR Rd2 if not taken in the 1st round.  I would like a new Center at 28, depending how the draft falls, stay at 28 and take the BPA.  Don't waste picks moving up.  

[njbuff]

Trading down is a good option if all the coveted WR's are all taken by 28 and the cost of moving up is too much. 

 

It wouldn't be a bad thing and the Bills still have a roster to fill out. So, trading back isn't a bad option at all.

 

Allen doesn't need an elite receiver. He needs someone who will HOLD ON TO THE DAMN BALL. 

[SoTier]

54 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

Why not draft two young players on the cheap? Would you rather we pay Jefferson big money or draft two “good” players with high ceilings on cost controlled contracts? We already did this same very thing with Diggs.

 

Allen with two of either LegetN'te, Worthy, Franklin, Pearsall, Polk or Burton is a very scary thought.

 

Lets get our very own Jefferson on a rookie contract.

 

Because we could very well wind up with Corey Davis and Zay Jones.   You trade for a young veteran because he's a known commodity.

 

7 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

So you should want to win now. Go for the proven commodity! 

Manning won with Harrison and Wayne. Young and Montana had Rice. 

Brady and Mahommes had two of the three best tight ends in NFL history.  Brady had two of the best slot WRs in NFL history in Edelman and Welker.  People act like Brady and these other QBs did not have weapons.  They played with some of the best players at their positions in NFL history.  Maybe Kincaid is in that category. He certainly has started career well. 

 

Agree.  A great QB needs protection and weapons.   The Bills have given Allen some weapons but he could always use more.   I would be more inclined to trade for a veteran like Jefferson (if his contract can fit under the cap) than to trade significant draft capital to grab WR prospect.  Too many high round WRs don't ever live up to their draft hype.  We know what Jefferson can do.

[MDH]

Other. It obviously depends on how the board looks but, in general, given how bunched up the WR are after the “Big 3” I’d like to see the Bills trade back somewhere in the 35-40 range, picking up a 3rd in the process then draft a WR there. Then, use one of the 4th round picks to move up in the 2nd and grab a WR again. 
 

The Bills could conceivably end up with something like McConkey and Lagette. 

[chris heff]

13 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

So you should want to win now. Go for the proven commodity! 

Manning won with Harrison and Wayne. Young and Montana had Rice. 

Brady and Mahommes had two of the three best tight ends in NFL history.  Brady had two of the best slot WRs in NFL history in Edelman and Welker.  People act like Brady and these other QBs did not have weapons.  They played with some of the best players at their positions in NFL history.  Maybe Kincaid is in that category. He certainly has started career well. 

I do want to win now and if a trade happens for Jefferson I’ll be delighted. I’m just not sure that with a draft class as deep at WR that a trade is necessary. Manning with Harrison and Wayne only won one Superbowl, would I take one win? Sure. Young, Montana and Rice couldn’t happen in today’s NFL, salary cap didn’t start until 1994 and there was Plan B free agency. I think Brady made Edelman and Welker great. Joe Ferguson had OJ Simpson, JD Hill, Ahmad Rashad and Bob Chandler and never won anything. Josh Allen is elite, he needs solid skill players. That run at the end of last season was not because of a superstar WR. The production came from Shakir, Kincaid and Cook. Curtis Samuel is an interesting pick up, with an interesting skill set, he has played on bad teams with bad QBs. Get Josh another weapon or two, whether that be through trade or draft and they will win now.

[chris heff]

21 minutes ago, MDH said:

Other. It obviously depends on how the board looks but, in general, given how bunched up the WR are after the “Big 3” I’d like to see the Bills trade back somewhere in the 35-40 range, picking up a 3rd in the process then draft a WR there. Then, use one of the 4th round picks to move up in the 2nd and grab a WR again. 
 

The Bills could conceivably end up with something like McConkey and Lagette. 

It does depend how the board looks, they could take Mitchell at 28 and if McConkey falls move up for him. Somebody always falls, it’s going to be interesting.

[3rdand12]

On 4/8/2024 at 4:27 PM, freddyjj said:

I believe OBD has a few plans but the most likely scenario would involve a WR at 28 or a trade down from 28 into top of 2nd thus picking up a 3rd Rd pick as well.  Do see OBD picking 2 WRs; one with their 1st pick  (at 28 or lower) and another later but before pick 150.

If Bills can gain some leverage in the second rd from later picks or even a pick from next year

Then how they manage 28 is not to get stuck on 28.

I couldnt answer. I want them to be super flexible

If they go after one of the top 4 I might stroke out , but hang around just to see how it plays next season !

I think they can find two AND some starters  * with four picks

 

 

*First year rotations

 Thank you for the poll OP

3 hours ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Considering who will be available at 28, would prefer drafting Ladd McConkey, WR from Georgia or Xavier Leggett WR, So. Carolina.

However, since this is a fantasy, my preference would be to move back out of the first to the early 2nd, acquire enough draft capitol to move up from 60 and possibly get a late 3rd round pick as well.  

Still Draft McConkey or Leggett, then draft a DT with the move up from 60, and draft a WR, CB, S, or RB in the 3rd. 

  

 

 

 

seems too good 

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, starrymessenger said:

To me, Odunze and Nabers are as bust proof as MHJ. That's an easy call imo. What's more difficult is to speculate on which one will be a better pro. I think Odunze could possibly transition the best of the three, though all should be great.  

He’s my number 2. I really like all 3. I wouldn’t be shocked if Nabers or Odunze ended up as the best WR in the class. I’d be shocked if MHJ wasn’t really good. That’s why he’s my number 1. 

For me Harrison coming through Ohio State and having his dad in the HOF makes him the safest. I’m biased as an Ohio State fan but it also means I’ve seen a ton of him. He’s 1,200 yards and 8 plus TDs as a rookie. 

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, chris heff said:

I do want to win now and if a trade happens for Jefferson I’ll be delighted. I’m just not sure that with a draft class as deep at WR that a trade is necessary. Manning with Harrison and Wayne only won one Superbowl, would I take one win? Sure. Young, Montana and Rice couldn’t happen in today’s NFL, salary cap didn’t start until 1994 and there was Plan B free agency. I think Brady made Edelman and Welker great. Joe Ferguson had OJ Simpson, JD Hill, Ahmad Rashad and Bob Chandler and never won anything. Josh Allen is elite, he needs solid skill players. That run at the end of last season was not because of a superstar WR. The production came from Shakir, Kincaid and Cook. Curtis Samuel is an interesting pick up, with an interesting skill set, he has played on bad teams with bad QBs. Get Josh another weapon or two, whether that be through trade or draft and they will win now.

 

I'm in the segment of fans that think that the Bills need more difference makers, so I would consider a trade for Jefferson because he's definitely one.  There's no guarantee that any WR we draft would develop into one ... or even be very good ... so I wouldn't trade much to move up in the draft to grab one.

 

OTOH, I don't believe that a great WR is a necessity, so if the Bills can grab a prospective difference maker who is an IOLer or DB or DLer, I want them to go for it and take a WR later in the draft.

[billsfan89]

2 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

Once you get to the 5th round and beyond it’s like finding a needle in a haystack. The top 50-64 picks are where your premium players are.

This team did find Gabe Davis in round 4 and Shakir in round 5. I know Gabe wasn’t the WR2 that the team needed him to be in 2022. But Gabe was still a productive WR.

 

I think that the McBeane track record on mid round selections is better than average. In rounds 4-5 from 2017 on the team has drafted 11 players the team has found Milano, Taron Johnson, Shakir, and Gabe Davis and a good role player in Neal with the jury still out on Shorter. 
 

That’s a 40% hit rate on finding starters and a 50% hit rate on finding productive players (taking out Shorter from the calculation). And while Teller wasn’t a hit for the Bills he was a good player the Bills traded too soon.
 

So I think I actually value selections in the mid rounds as it seems like McBeane seems to find good players there. 

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

This team did find Gabe Davis in round 4 and Shakir in round 5. I know Gabe wasn’t the WR2 that the team needed him to be in 2022. But Gabe was still a productive WR.

 

I think that the McBeane track record on mid round selections is better than average. In rounds 4-5 from 2017 on the team has drafted 11 players the team has found Milano, Taron Johnson, Shakir, and Gabe Davis and a good role player in Neal with the jury still out on Shorter. 
 

That’s a 40% hit rate on finding starters and a 50% hit rate on finding productive players (taking out Shorter from the calculation). And while Teller wasn’t a hit for the Bills he was a good player the Bills traded too soon.
 

So I think I actually value selections in the mid rounds as it seems like McBeane seems to find good players there. 

I think that there’s a chance that the Bills take a guy in that range. They don’t have the luxury of a 40% chance at WR. They don’t have the depth to take that chance. They MAYBE could have rolled the dice on that when Diggs was here. That would have been a bad strategy but possible. Now, they need 2 that they know can play. 

[ghostwriter]

20 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

This team did find Gabe Davis in round 4 and Shakir in round 5. I know Gabe wasn’t the WR2 that the team needed him to be in 2022. But Gabe was still a productive WR.

 

I think that the McBeane track record on mid round selections is better than average. In rounds 4-5 from 2017 on the team has drafted 11 players the team has found Milano, Taron Johnson, Shakir, and Gabe Davis and a good role player in Neal with the jury still out on Shorter. 
 

That’s a 40% hit rate on finding starters and a 50% hit rate on finding productive players (taking out Shorter from the calculation). And while Teller wasn’t a hit for the Bills he was a good player the Bills traded too soon.
 

So I think I actually value selections in the mid rounds as it seems like McBeane seems to find good players there. 

Oh, absolutely. If you have a good GM like Brandon Beane you can find good players everywhere. I just think that in:

 

RDs 1-2 you should be getting an above average starter.

 

RDs 3-5 A player that may develop into a starter.

 

and

 

RDs 6-7 STs player, backup, TC fodder.

 

There’s exceptions to every rule though like you said. I’m just saying that by the time you get to RDs 5-7, mostly everything has been picked over at that point.

[billsfan89]

39 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think that there’s a chance that the Bills take a guy in that range. They don’t have the luxury of a 40% chance at WR. They don’t have the depth to take that chance. They MAYBE could have rolled the dice on that when Diggs was here. That would have been a bad strategy but possible. Now, they need 2 that they know can play. 

I don’t think they need two WR’s as starters or heavy volume players. Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, Knox, and Cook are 5 players that are going to be getting good targets while Hollins and Ty Johnson will be getting complementary targets.

 

They do need one WR to have solid volume I don’t think they need two rookies to soak in all of the Diggs targets. 
 

Samuel should take on Gabe’s targets while Shakir, Cook, Ty, Kincaid and Knox should have their targets increase in taking some of Diggs 160 targets. 
 

I think you are going to need a rookie to take on 80-90 targets while the other 70-80 targets are disbursed to the other players. I think a second rookie would probably be there for depth and supplemental production. A second rookie 4th/5th on the depth chart probably is going to have 30-40 targets.

 

 

Edited April 9 by billsfan89

[chris heff]

2 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

I don’t think they need two WR’s as starters or heavy volume players. Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, Knox, and Cook are 5 players that are going to be getting good targets while Hollins and Ty Johnson will be getting complementary targets.

 

They do need one WR to have solid volume I don’t think they need two rookies to soak in all of the Diggs targets. 
 

Samuel should take on Gabe’s targets while Shakir, Cook, Ty, Kincaid and Knox should have their targets increase in taking some of Diggs 160 targets. 
 

I think you are going to need a rookie to take on 80-90 targets while the other 70-80 targets are disbursed to the other players. I think a second rookie would probably be there for depth and supplemental production. A second rookie 4th/5th on the depth chart probably is going to have 30-40 targets.

 

 

Or they take two for insurance, increase the odds of one being special.

[Kirby Jackson]

5 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

I don’t think they need two WR’s as starters or heavy volume players. Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, Knox, and Cook are 5 players that are going to be getting good targets while Hollins and Ty Johnson will be getting complementary targets.

 

They do need one WR to have solid volume I don’t think they need two rookies to soak in all of the Diggs targets. 
 

Samuel should take on Gabe’s targets while Shakir, Cook, Ty, Kincaid and Knox should have their targets increase in taking some of Diggs 160 targets. 
 

I think you are going to need a rookie to take on 80-90 targets while the other 70-80 targets are disbursed to the other players. I think a second rookie would probably be there for depth and supplemental production. A second rookie 4th/5th on the depth chart probably is going to have 30-40 targets.

 

 

They need them as much to be a “threat” to open up those guys. The Bills have a bottom 3 WR room in the league right now (with the Giants and Chargers). I’d have the Bills at 31. That’s awful. That holds especially true when your best player is your QB. Help him.

 

In terms of targets, I think that there are 200(ish) targets currently available. These 2 guys (one could come in FA or trade) but the Bills will be adding 2 guys that will receive 80+ targets.

Here is what I had for targets prior to the Diggs trade:

 

To recap (620 targets):

diggs - 130

wr2 (1st or 2nd round) - 110

kincaid - 110

Shakir - 80

Samuel - 55 (another 55 carries)

Cook - 50

Knox - 40

Hollins - 30

everyone else - 15

 

Let’s say that Knox picks up 20 and the rest of the group picks up an additional 50. That is really aggressive. That still leaves 170 targets needed out of this class (and FA). They are in a bad spot. They need 2 that can play tomorrow.

[billsfan89]

14 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

They need them as much to be a “threat” to open up those guys. The Bills have a bottom 3 WR room in the league right now (with the Giants and Chargers). I’d have the Bills at 31. That’s awful. That holds especially true when your best player is your QB. Help him.

 

In terms of targets, I think that there are 200(ish) targets currently available. These 2 guys (one could come in FA or trade) but the Bills will be adding 2 guys that will receive 80+ targets.

Here is what I had for targets prior to the Diggs trade:

 

To recap (620 targets):

diggs - 130

wr2 (1st or 2nd round) - 110

kincaid - 110

Shakir - 80

Samuel - 55 (another 55 carries)

Cook - 50

Knox - 40

Hollins - 30

everyone else - 15

 

Let’s say that Knox picks up 20 and the rest of the group picks up an additional 50. That is really aggressive. That still leaves 170 targets needed out of this class (and FA). They are in a bad spot. They need 2 that can play tomorrow.

Josh threw 579 times in 2023 with 545 being targets (I assume those other 30 passes were throw away or batted at the line). So round up to 550 targets likely needed 

 

I think the targets are going to look like this for the guys currently on the roster. These seem like reasonable estimates to me.

 

Kincaid 110

Shakir 100

Samuel 70

Cook 50

Knox 50

Hollins 35

Ty Johnson 25

That’s about 440 targets so you are only “short” about 110 targets. You probably need a rookie to come in and take about 75 targets which would put the Bills at about 515 targets and the rest of the 35 targets are likely spread around to role players.

 

So I don’t think you need two WR’s soaking in a lot of targets.

 

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Josh threw 579 times in 2023 with 545 being targets (I assume those other 30 passes were throw away or batted at the line). So round up to 550 targets likely needed 

 

I think the targets are going to look like this for the guys currently on the roster. These seem like reasonable estimates to me.

 

Kincaid 110

Shakir 100

Samuel 70

Cook 50

Knox 50

Hollins 35

Ty Johnson 25

That’s about 440 targets so you are only “short” about 110 targets. You probably need a rookie to come in and take about 75 targets which would put the Bills at about 515 targets and the rest of the 35 targets are likely spread around to role players.

 

So I don’t think you need two WR’s soaking in a lot of targets.

 

I guess that we just have a different idea of how often they will throw. I have them at 36 pass attempts a game. Without big play availability that feels about right. They averaged 33 pass attempts a game with Brady. That’s a little bit misleading though because they only threw the ball 15 times vs. Dallas. We disagree at how often the Bills will throw.

 

We also disagree that the rest of those guys are capable of taking that kind of target share. Some of these guys were productive with low target share and low attention from the defense. The Bills don’t have anyone that scares teams in the passing game with the exception of maybe Kincaid (if he keeps developing). The rest of those guys are role players and without an alpha in the room they are going to be defended like top players. That’s not ideal. The Bills NEED an alpha. All of those guys need that guy to take attention.
 

If the Bills top receivers are on the roster now, they won’t go to the playoffs. they have to get 1 of the top 3 or 2 of the top 12. They can’t bank on “hoping” to be right in the 4th or 5th. That’s not an option any longer. It was a bad idea when Diggs was here. Now, it isn’t a thought.