interesting WR scenario posed by a friend

[Warriorspikes51]

8 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

The danger with the WR game is, when you don’t have a guy that can really command respect, teams will just shut down an average guy. You absolutely need to factor in what Diggs does for other guys because you have to respect him. Right now we have nobody that would pressure a defense and it’s a dangerous setup. You have to go and get a real number 1 guy to at least make a defense respect you. If we roll out what we have and then draft a 2nd or 3rd wave WR, guys like Shakir and Sammuel are going to get smothered. You have to go get one of the top 2 WRs here or trade for a big time guy.

 

My top idea I'd like to see is a blockbuster with Seattle that gets us pick 16 for BTJ and Metcalf.

 

Highly highly unlikely...but within the realm of possible, if SEA wants to rebuild under new regime and acquire 5 picks 

 

Edited April 8 by Warriorspikes51

[BarleyNY]

10 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

A lot of folks do have Thomas as the third best of the lot. I don't know enough, but from what I've read his talent is such that it's not crazy to view him as just behind Nabers and MHJ. Plus the track record of highly drafted LSU receivers is pretty damn good.

 

I’ve seen Thomas as high as 4th, but I’ve seen him a lot lower too. I do not think he’s a good fit for the Bills. He insisted a Metcalf style WR. An X who is big and fast and is excellent at contested catches. But the Bills have been running an offense with a much quicker passing game. He doesn’t do a good job of uncovering quickly so that limits him to contested catches on quicker routes or longer developing ones. Spending multiple picks on that style of player makes no sense to me. 

[HappyDays]

I don't want to trade for Aiyuk even if we can somehow make it work under this year's cap (and I believe this would be literally impossible in any case). The fact that this is an incredible WR class gives us an opportunity to get two very good WRs on rookie contracts instead of tying up a bunch of cap space.

 

I also don't want to trade up in the 1st, for similar reasons. If we made a huge trade up for one of Nabers, Harrison, or Odunze, I suppose I would understand it. Not what I would do but I get trying to add a true #1 WR to immediately replace Diggs. But trading up for anybody else would be a big mistake IMO. I would rather get two very good WR prospects than just get Brian Thomas Jr (admittedly I'm lower on him than most, but even the consensus says that he is a tier below the top 3).

 

My goal in this draft would be to come away with two WRs in the top 50. If a trade down partner is there I would try to trade back and get a 3rd rounder back, but staying at #28 and picking the best WR available would be perfectly fine. I would then trade back up into the 40s using one of our 2025 2nd rounders.

 

Using that strategy, I would come away with two of the following WRs:

 

Keon Coleman

Xavier Legette

Troy Franklin

Ladd McConkey

Adonai Mitchell

Xavier Worthy

 

I have my preferences from that list, and ideally we would draft two WRs that complement each other (one X, one Z), but I'm less concerned about the specific players drafted than I am about the position.

 

Imagine coming away with two young studs at WR with high upside traits, to kick off the 2nd half of Allen's career. That should be the goal.

 

If this strategy comes after an initial trade down we would still have one more top 100 pick to fill another need with a good prospect, and a litany of day three picks to fill out the rest of the roster. We would eventually enter 2025 with a normal complement of draft picks and a relatively good cap position. I would expect somewhat of a mini rebuild in 2024 but the future would look bright, and who knows maybe the rookie WRs hit the ground running and the offense looks even better than it did last year before long.

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I don't want to trade for Aiyuk even if we can somehow make it work under this year's cap (and I believe this would be literally impossible in any case). The fact that this is an incredible WR class gives us an opportunity to get two very good WRs on rookie contracts instead of tying up a bunch of cap space.

 

I also don't want to trade up in the 1st, for similar reasons. If we made a huge trade up for one of Nabers, Harrison, or Odunze, I suppose I would understand it. Not what I would do but I get trying to add a true #1 WR to immediately replace Diggs. But trading up for anybody else would be a big mistake IMO. I would rather get two very good WR prospects than just get Brian Thomas Jr (admittedly I'm lower on him than most, but even the consensus says that he is a tier below the top 3).

 

My goal in this draft would be to come away with two WRs in the top 50. If a trade down partner is there I would try to trade back and get a 3rd rounder back, but staying at #28 and picking the best WR available would be perfectly fine. I would then trade back up into the 40s using one of our 2025 2nd rounders.

 

Using that strategy, I would come away with two of the following WRs:

 

Keon Coleman

Xavier Legette

Troy Franklin

Ladd McConkey

Adonai Mitchell

Xavier Worthy

 

I have my preferences from that list, and ideally we would draft two WRs that complement each other (one X, one Z), but I'm less concerned about the specific players drafted than I am about the position.

 

Imagine coming away with two young studs at WR with high upside traits, to kick off the 2nd half of Allen's career. That should be the goal.

 

If this strategy comes after an initial trade down we would still have one more top 100 pick to fill another need with a good prospect, and a litany of day three picks to fill out the rest of the roster. We would eventually enter 2025 with a normal complement of draft picks and a relatively good cap position. I would expect somewhat of a mini rebuild in 2024 but the future would look bright, and who knows maybe the rookie WRs hit the ground running and the offense looks even better than it did last year before long.

I'll confess to being influenced by Chris Simms on this, although the bits I've seen of him impress me too: 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

Where at these holes?  Maybe 1 guy at DE.  We have starters at CB, S, LB, O line, RB, DT, DE. 

 

If that is all you think we need then I don't know what to tell you.  We may have guys we could start if we HAD to, but lets not pretend we are better at each of those positions than we were last year on a team that already didn't make it past the 2nd round and had to rally just not to miss the playoffs.  

[Toyo321]

Hoping they just take a WR#1 RD1 and get one of the top 4.  Then go for whatever they need after that.  I could see a possible move up but that would be to secure one of the top 3 WR's only, I just know how much Beane is willing to give up to move up the board,  when we need a lot of help still at DE, S and CB.  If they don't move up and stay at #28, the best WR still on the board is fine.

[BeastMaster]

Both ideas are not smart for this team at all

 

Trading premium picks for a player that wants a new deal where he's paid as a top guy is what bad franchises do. Teams like Buffalo with a franchise QB jettison those guys and regain capital to strengthen the entire roster and keep contending.

 

I also do not see the brilliance in trading up in a deep draft class at wideout. Just let the board fall to you. I also don't see Brian Thomas Jr as anything more than a raw prospect that isn't a sure thing. Not worth attaching a high second rounded to trade up for when I can wait and possibly land him or aquire another talented receiver that is more ready to play immediately. 

 

Make the pick at 28, and then trade 60 and our second next year for a high second this year and a mid round round pick next season. Now you have two talented rookies at wideout and you keep your first next season along with the high second from Minnesota

 

 

[HappyDays]

26 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I'll confess to being influenced by Chris Simms on this, although the bits I've seen of him impress me too: 

 

 

 

I like Simms but his track record on WRs is not particularly good. He gets blown away by physical traits, to a fault. BTJ can certainly release and separate vertically, but he has question marks everywhere else. My issue with him is that he isn't an alpha at the catch point. Can a pure vertical WR with a limited route tree and without elite catch ability really be a true #1? I have my doubts.

[MasterStrategist]

49 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Minnesota's pick won't be there, I don't think. They're pretty obviously bent on trading up to get a QB.

Another possibility is stay put at 28, and move up with Car in Rd 2 (pick 39)

 

 

At 28: Leggete, Mitchell, Worthy

At 39: possibly one of the above slides here, plus potential of Ladd, Pearsall, Keon, and Franklin

 

Buf receives: pick 39, pick 101 (1st pick of 4th round)

 

Car receives: pick 60, pick 122 (4th round), and Min 2nd rounder (2025)

 

Trade value chart would be very similar, if both wish to make a deal.  Car has pick 33 too, they might be willing to move back in Rd 2 for an additional 2nd next season (proj to be fairly high)

[corta765]

3 hours ago, Watkins101 said:

Remember when Robert Foster had over 500 yards the final 8 games of the season, and everybody here was saying he was gonna be a 1/2? Kinda feels like that with all the hype Shakir is getting. 

 

That is where I am. "oh Shakir will step up and do this" "Kincaid is gonna be Kelce" "draft pick X and Z will explode" etc.. its hype and excitement but reality can be quite different. Robert Foster was nothing in 2019, it was the establishment of Beasley/Brown that allowed Josh to take a next step.  The truth is the Bills offense had a higher baseline with Diggs then without him and it is 1000% possible the hype that people keep throwing all over just fails the match up. Just because Diggs is gone doesn't mean the replacement is equal and it very well can be worse. It is great they have some nice draft capital the next two years and 2025 they have more cap space, but they currently have the worst skill group at pass catcher since 2018 and even if Josh elevates them they are starting at a tough climb.

[Dillenger4]

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

In the wake of the Diggs trade, a friend had this reaction and came up with the scenario below. Curious to know what people think because it actually seems genuinely plausible to me, and I'd love it:

 

"A bunch of you know, I've been hoping since February that Beane would trade Diggs for a 2nd or 3rd rounder. The fact that he was able to get what should be a high end #2 in 2025 is great.

What Beane did was jettison the 4 receivers that caught the ball at a 63% clip & kept the 3 guys that collectively caught it at an 82% catch rate. Shakir, Cook & Kincaid we're all top 30 in the league in that category [incidentally, Cook was 81.5 percent for 8.2 yards/target]. Even after these 3 guys sign their 2nd contracts, they should all remain good values for most of the remainder of Allen's career.

Here's 4 relatively conservative projections for 2024

                    Targets          Yards      Yards/Target
Kincaid          110                 800             7.3
Shakir             80                800            10
Samuel           90                750             8.3
All RBs            80                650             8.1 

That equates to 3,000 yards on 360 targets. Allen has averaged 36 attempts per game over the past 4 years. 36x17=612 which leaves 252 targets for Wr1, Wr2, Wr5 & Knox. Allen has never thrown over 4,600 yards in his career. If he were to average 7.9 yards per attempt on the remaining 252 attempts, then he would have thrown for 5,000. Just for perspective, Shakir led the league in yards/target last year at 13.6. Aiyuk was 2nd at 12.8 & Diggs was a pedestrian 7.4, unlike 2020 when he was 9.2

For me, ideally Beane couples pick #28 & our 2025 2nd round pick to either trade for Aiyuk, or move up to get Brian Thomas Jr. Then, if he took our 2025 first round pick to trade back into the 2nd round to grab either Legette or McConkey, that would be nice. We'd have the fastest & most dynamic set of skill players in team history.

It sounds like we can easily create North of 60 million in cap space for 2025 & free up a bunch more room in 2026. That's a fantastic kicker to this Diggs trade, because it'll allow us to target multiple pro bowl free agents in the next couple of years.

 

All of these factors combined, will allow us to compete with KC for the next 8 years & we'll be able to view this trade for what it is ... a prelude to a parade!"

I like your enthusiasm, but this post is utter fantasy if anything.

 

Aiyuk is a real possibility - but that has already been reported at two second round pix which we do have. Moving up in the draft? Not happening the way you have it posted. No chance. As of this morning the Bills are 1 of 2 teams in on the Aiyouk signing. Time will tell if this is real.

 

if anything, our move up is for Latu if he falls to 18/20. beane will pounce on him.

[dave mcbride]

Just now, Dillenger4 said:

I like your enthusiasm, but this post is utter fantasy if anything.

 

Aiyuk is a real possibility - but that has already been reported at two second round pix which we do have. Moving up in the draft? Not happening the way you have it posted. No chance. As of this morning the Bills are 1 of 2 teams in on the Aiyouk signing. Time will tell if this is real.

 

if anything, our move up is for Latu if he falls to 18/20. beane will pounce on him.

Where is the info you refer to on Aiyuk? Is there a link?

[Dillenger4]

41 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Another possibility is stay put at 28, and move up with Car in Rd 2 (pick 39)

 

 

At 28: Leggete, Mitchell, Worthy

At 39: possibly one of the above slides here, plus potential of Ladd, Pearsall, Keon, and Franklin

 

Buf receives: pick 39, pick 101 (1st pick of 4th round)

 

Car receives: pick 60, pick 122 (4th round), and Min 2nd rounder (2025)

 

Trade value chart would be very similar, if both wish to make a deal.  Car has pick 33 too, they might be willing to move back in Rd 2 for an additional 2nd next season (proj to be fairly high)

This actuallyh makes sense in the realm of possibility. But why does everyone on here think we are going to pick multiple WR's early? Heck, I'm shocked if we take one at 28 over a DE which is what we need the MOST!

Beane get's Ayouk and our draft is studs on D. SB baby!

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Where is the info you refer to on Aiyuk? Is there a link?

Yes, many. Just research it. Watch the NFL stream on twitch. Schrager said it on Friday too. Follow him on X. It's out there... rumours of course at this point but where theres smoke....

[MasterStrategist]

Just now, Dillenger4 said:

This actuallyh makes sense in the realm of possibility. But why does everyone on here think we are going to pick multiple WR's early? Heck, I'm shocked if we take one at 28 over a DE which is what we need the MOST!

Beane get's Ayouk and our draft is studs on D. SB baby!

I thought DE was tied with WR as a need, potentially higher even, prior to Diggs trade.

 

If Latu is sitting there in the 20s, he'd be a possibility.

 

Key thing, for me at least, is that we possess ZERO boundary receivers.  Yes, Samuel can bounce our there.  But he's not a full option there, he's better in the slot/moved around in formations.  Shakir is a slot only type to me, he can play boundary but is very limited downfield and against man he's underwhelming.

 

So that's why I think this is the year to double up on WR early.  Great class and meets a big need. Sets us up nicely for cap in 2025+.

 

DE to me, other than Latu is risky with either Robinson at 28.  A 2nd Rd DE won't move the needle in this draft class.  We need to count on Groot, Von, AJE, and what I hope is a post June 1st signing (similar to Floyd)

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

If that is all you think we need then I don't know what to tell you.  We may have guys we could start if we HAD to, but lets not pretend we are better at each of those positions than we were last year on a team that already didn't make it past the 2nd round and had to rally just not to miss the playoffs.  

We are better at safety.  Two younger guys with experience in Rapp and Edwards for two older guys.  We are the same if not better at DT.  At LB Milano is back so better there.  At DE lost Floyd but Miller should be healed up.  On O line May lose a bit in the run game since Morse could pull well but should be better in pass pro.  Got our two RB back.  Fine at TE.  
 

 

[GASabresIUFan]

Please Beane do not trade for a WR under any circumstances.  Trade up in the draft if you have to, but it's time to finally invest in skill help at WR in the draft and develop our own young talent.

 

Lets look at our skill position drafting under Beane.

TEs:  Kincaid (1st rd 2023), Knox (3rd rd 2019), Tommy Sweeney (7th rd 2019) & Quintin Morris (UDFA).

RBs: Cook (2nd rd 2022), Moss (3rd rd 2020) & Singletary (3rd rd 2019)

WRs: Davis (4th rd 2020), Shakir (5th rd 2022), Shorter (5th rd 2022), Stevenson (6th rd 2021), Hodgins (6th rd 2020), Ray-Ray McCloud (7th rd 2018), and Austin Proehl (7th rd 2018)

 

Not surprisingly the highest drafted player is the best one in each group.  Also not surprising, is the lack of long-term success in finding good WRs.  Hard to find good ones without investing drafting capital in the position.  Even if Shakir breaks that mold and becomes Diggs 2.0, it's long past time for Beane to invest in a top WR or two.  He finally used 1st & 2nd rd picks on talent at RB and TE and both were huge upgrades over the incumbent talent. Cook finished 3rd in scrimmage yards as a 1st year starter last season and Kincaid produced more yards as rookie then Knox had in any season of his 5 year career.

 

Edited April 8 by GASabresIUFan

[nedboy7]

3 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

who are these people? I haven't seen one and I love Legette 

 

Well I did come across 3 rankings out of like 20.  Many is pushing it!  lol. 

But I dont quite remember where.  One dude who definitely does is Brett Whitefield. 

[Warriorspikes51]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I like Simms but his track record on WRs is not particularly good. He gets blown away by physical traits, to a fault. BTJ can certainly release and separate vertically, but he has question marks everywhere else. My issue with him is that he isn't an alpha at the catch point. Can a pure vertical WR with a limited route tree and without elite catch ability really be a true #1? I have my doubts.

He had the 2nd best contested catch % of all the guys that are going in the first 3 rounds.  Only Odunze was better.

He's not pure vertical, he's shown he can catch underneath, make moves and pick up chunk yards.  

Edited April 8 by Warriorspikes51

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Dillenger4 said:

This actuallyh makes sense in the realm of possibility. But why does everyone on here think we are going to pick multiple WR's early? Heck, I'm shocked if we take one at 28 over a DE which is what we need the MOST!

Beane get's Ayouk and our draft is studs on D. SB baby!

Yes, many. Just research it. Watch the NFL stream on twitch. Schrager said it on Friday too. Follow him on X. It's out there... rumours of course at this point but where theres smoke....

I don't have twitch and I don't really watch TV either. A link to an article would be great. I looked it up and found nothing outside of sketchy youtube commentators, but perhaps I was using poor search terms. It's not that I don't believe you, but when people ask for a link and are told to do their own digging, it's a little frustrating.  

 

Having said all of this, it does seem a little implausible to me for the Niners to trade him. Why not keep him for next year on a very reasonable fifth-year option salary? They are a Super Bowl-caliber team and he was by pretty much every measure one of the best receivers in the NFL last season (and a second-team all-pro). A 17.9 ypr average coupled with a 71.4 percent catch percentage rate is pretty staggering.

Edited April 8 by dave mcbride

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I know enough about the cap to understand why the Bills can’t afford Aiyuk this season, which definitely puts me ahead of you on that subject. 

 

Also I understand that the trade and Aiyuk acquisitions are separate scenarios. Reread what I wrote. I’m not interested in trading up for any WR other than the top 3. Aiyuk is not feasible for cap reasons. 

 

 

How could they not afford him if they trade for him, then redo his contract and extend him and give him a $1 million base salary in year 1 of the deal? It's easily doable. The Bills need roughly $3 mil for draft picks, they have $3+ million available now plus $10+ mil coming free June 1st.  That gives them about $13 million in cap space they could work with.  Obviously they will need some for practice squad and signing players during the season due to injuries, etc but they don't need to worry about that until a week before the league year begins.  At this point it's only the Top 51 players that count toward the cap.

 

And it's not like they couldn't move some money around or potentially cut someone else to free up the space if they wanted to do it.

Edited April 8 by Big Turk