interesting WR scenario posed by a friend

[SoonerBillsFan]

15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

An interesting way to look at 2024.   I didn't study it in depth, but I have these reactions:

 

I actually one of the three key receivers will go over 1000 yards.   Could be any of Kincaid, Shakir, or Samuel.   I think that would happen on the assumption that the Bills use #28 to get the best receiver available, meaning the receiver who fits the Bills needs the best.   That guy doesn't have to produce 1000 yards.  All he has to do is produce 500-600.   

 

Essentially, I think what can happen in that scenario is that one of the three the Bills currently have will move up to replace Diggs as the 1000-yard guy, and the rookie will move in to replace the 500 yards, more or less, that the guy who's replacing Diggs got last season.   Completely plausible in my mind.  

 

The longer I've considered this, I think the receiver problem will be solved without drastic measures.   Now, I worry more about having two quality safeties and having enough depth at corner.  

Agreed at WR, Beane has a plan and will handle it.  I like both Safetys, but want to see one drafted in round 4. CB depth can be done rounds 5-7, more than enough ammo there.

 

I wish we could find a guy at DE who was truly impactful, meaning 10+ sacks a season.  I want Sweat at DT somehow out of this draft.

[Warriorspikes51]

1 minute ago, nedboy7 said:

I'd only move up for Odunze if he dropped past 12. 

After that I would rather have Legette than BT Jr. 

Wondering what people think of that idea. 

Lots of people have Legette ranked higher than BT Jr.  I like him better actually.  Way more proven in the short and intermediate game. 

Legette is a late break out due to a late position switch.  Great culture fit.  I would move up a few spots for him. 

Don't care for Worthy. 

Love Ricky Pearsall.  Ranked as #5 for some.  Complete WR.  Best hands in class.  Can run any route. 

Love Roman Wilson. 

Love McConkey.  

 

So many great options after the top 3.  I think no need to make a huge trade. 

 

 

 

who are these people? I haven't seen one and I love Legette 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

Where at these holes?  Maybe 1 guy at DE.  We have starters at CB, S, LB, O line, RB, DT, DE. 

 

I think the depth at CB, S, DT, and DE are a bit concerning.  I hope they draft a back late just to get a cheap option on the books - sick of signing league minimum vets who aren't very good.  

 

Safety - still free agents out there that could be interesting options if they decide to add a vet and keep rapp as a 3rd safety.  

CB - Several late round picks, i'd expect we use one here

DT - 3T has a gaping hole behind oliver.  Considering the pass rush can be somewhat reliant upon this position, i'd put a quality player on a rookie deal as among the more important things to walk away from in this draft

DE - Rousseau is about off his rookie deal, doesn't need to be super high but another position where they need to find someone to contribute today with upside into the future.  

[oldmanfan]

4 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I think the depth at CB, S, DT, and DE are a bit concerning.  I hope they draft a back late just to get a cheap option on the books - sick of signing league minimum vets who aren't very good.  

 

Safety - still free agents out there that could be interesting options if they decide to add a vet and keep rapp as a 3rd safety.  

CB - Several late round picks, i'd expect we use one here

DT - 3T has a gaping hole behind oliver.  Considering the pass rush can be somewhat reliant upon this position, i'd put a quality player on a rookie deal as among the more important things to walk away from in this draft

DE - Rousseau is about off his rookie deal, doesn't need to be super high but another position where they need to find someone to contribute today with upside into the future.  

To me depth does not equal holes.  A hole to me is needing a starter.

[billsbackto81]

1 hour ago, Watkins101 said:

Remember when Robert Foster had over 500 yards the final 8 games of the season, and everybody here was saying he was gonna be a 1/2? Kinda feels like that with all the hype Shakir is getting. 

Love Shakir, but at no point have I looked at him as more than a solid starting slot receiver. 

[iccrewman112]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Forget about defense. If we are going to win it's on the back of the offense.  How many times do you have to see the elite D fail in the playoffs to know no matter how good they make the D it's not going to matter? McD should be able to make due with what he gets on D.

another reason to focus on offense is the D is just not as critical in the playoffs. Basically no offensive holding is called and the DBs can get away with more holding and contact.

 

this basically devalues the DB and DE in the playoffs (while they are of fullest value during the regular season).

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

1 hour ago, Watkins101 said:

Remember when Robert Foster had over 500 yards the final 8 games of the season, and everybody here was saying he was gonna be a 1/2? Kinda feels like that with all the hype Shakir is getting. 

Everybody ? I certainly didn’t feel that way. Somebody has to get targets and Foster was just the best out of a group of trash receivers. 

[billsbackto81]

25 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

I'd only move up for Odunze if he dropped past 12. 

After that I would rather have Legette than BT Jr. 

Wondering what people think of that idea. 

Lots of people have Legette ranked higher than BT Jr.  I like him better actually.  Way more proven in the short and intermediate game. 

Legette is a late break out due to a late position switch.  Great culture fit.  I would move up a few spots for him. 

Don't care for Worthy. 

Love Ricky Pearsall.  Ranked as #5 for some.  Complete WR.  Best hands in class.  Can run any route. 

Love Roman Wilson. 

Love McConkey.  

 

So many great options after the top 3.  I think no need to make a huge trade. 

 

 

I really like Legette but he's a bit raw and his limited production is concerning. And although Legette may turn out to be an pro bowl caliber WR I'm taking BT Jr if I have to choose between the two. 

 

I also like Wilson (big sleeper), Polk and Corley as late rounders with potential  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

15 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

To me depth does not equal holes.  A hole to me is needing a starter.

 

To me - depth is the difference between great and good.  Players will get hurt.  If the players who step in are incapable of getting it done, it ends up showing within your W/L record. 

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

To me - depth is the difference between great and good.  Players will get hurt.  If the players who step in are incapable of getting it done, it ends up showing within your W/L record. 

We always bring in depth.  Every team does.  I think a mistake some make is in thinking depth guys should perform at an All Pro level.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

41 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Where at these holes?  Maybe 1 guy at DE.  We have starters at CB, S, LB, O line, RB, DT, DE. 

Yes and trying to fill all the holes will end up disappointing.

[Shaw66]

54 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I wish we could find a guy at DE who was truly impactful, meaning 10+ sacks a season.  I want Sweat at DT somehow out of this draft.

That guy is going to be Von Miller.  

[Beast]

I’m OK with just getting 1 receiver in this draft and not spending a fortune to do so.

 

When you have a blue chip QB, average to above average goes a long way.

Edited April 8 by Beast

[SoonerBillsFan]

6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That guy is going to be Von Miller.  

 My Bills Brother I sincerely hope so. I am hoping that maybe Beane can pull off finding someone in the 2nd round or so that turns into that guy as well. It has happened, and God knows we need that.  One other thing I would like out of this draft is either a LB, CB or Safety that can put a clamp down on Kelse and or any other top TE.

[MasterStrategist]

I think it's very possible for the following, re: trade ups in Rd 1 and Rd2:

 

Rd1: move up to Min pick, if Thomas still there.  give up our 1st, our 4th, and 2 5ths this year, for their 1st and a 7th this yr

 

Rd2: move up to Was 2nd pick in Rd2, I think 40.  Trade our 2nd this year and our 2nd in 2025

 

Draft Brian Thomas and Keon Coleman.  That would be a very nice young WR core

Edited April 8 by MasterStrategist

[mrags]

2 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Very interesting take.   I like the thought process of Brian Thomas Jr & Xavier Legette

I believe we can pull it off while keeping our 2025 1st 

Anywhere from 13-19 would be my target zone for BTJ.  

Saints at 14 or Seahawks at 16 make sense.  Estimated cost: 28, 4th, 2025 2nd (MIN/HOU)

Then, assuming Legette makes it into Round 2...

 

Commanders and Panthers both have two seconds

Perhaps 60, 5th, 2025 2nd  to move up for Legette 

I think Seattle is where you want to go. Not as high but before Cinci in case they want Thomas Jr in the wake of losing Higgins. 
 

I’m also not positive, but I thought I heard from one of the draft gurus as a guest on wgr that next years picks don’t really differentiate in value all that much as far as same round. Id try and give up the Bills 2nd rd pick next year, while keeping the Min traded pick. 

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Why are you assuming we trade picks to move up in the draft?  Those scenarios are independent of each other...it's not like both have to happen or neither can happen.

 

You clearly don't understand how easy it is to manipulate the cap if you actually believe that.  Players making far more than he would be making have very low cap hits in year one to facilitate these type of things. Diggs trade opened up a ton of cap space each year over the next 3 seasons following this one, I believe more than $25 million a year each year.

 

 

I know enough about the cap to understand why the Bills can’t afford Aiyuk this season, which definitely puts me ahead of you on that subject. 

 

Also I understand that the trade and Aiyuk acquisitions are separate scenarios. Reread what I wrote. I’m not interested in trading up for any WR other than the top 3. Aiyuk is not feasible for cap reasons. 

 

[dave mcbride]

8 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

I think it's very possible for the following, re: trade ups in Rd 1 and Rd2:

 

Rd1: move up to Min pick, if Thomas still there.  give up our 1st, our 4th, and 2 5ths this year, for their 1st and a 7th this yr

 

Rd2: move up to Was 2nd pick in Rd2, I think 40.  Trade our 2nd this year and our 2nd in 2025

 

Draft Brian Thomas and Keon Coleman.  That would be a very nice young WR core

Minnesota's pick won't be there, I don't think. They're pretty obviously bent on trading up to get a QB.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

The danger with the WR game is, when you don’t have a guy that can really command respect, teams will just shut down an average guy. You absolutely need to factor in what Diggs does for other guys because you have to respect him. Right now we have nobody that would pressure a defense and it’s a dangerous setup. You have to go and get a real number 1 guy to at least make a defense respect you. If we roll out what we have and then draft a 2nd or 3rd wave WR, guys like Shakir and Sammuel are going to get smothered. You have to go get one of the top 2 WRs here or trade for a big time guy.

[dave mcbride]

6 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I know enough about the cap to understand why the Bills can’t afford Aiyuk this season, which definitely puts me ahead of you on that subject. 

 

Also I understand that the trade and Aiyuk acquisitions are separate scenarios. Reread what I wrote. I’m not interested in trading up for any WR other than the top 3. Aiyuk is not feasible for cap reasons. 

 

A lot of folks do have Thomas as the third best of the lot. I don't know enough, but from what I've read his talent is such that it's not crazy to view him as just behind Nabers and MHJ. Plus the track record of highly drafted LSU receivers is pretty damn good.