dave mcbride Posted April 8 Posted April 8 In the wake of the Diggs trade, a friend had this reaction and came up with the scenario below. Curious to know what people think because it actually seems genuinely plausible to me, and I'd love it: "A bunch of you know, I've been hoping since February that Beane would trade Diggs for a 2nd or 3rd rounder. The fact that he was able to get what should be a high end #2 in 2025 is great. What Beane did was jettison the 4 receivers that caught the ball at a 63% clip & kept the 3 guys that collectively caught it at an 82% catch rate. Shakir, Cook & Kincaid we're all top 30 in the league in that category [incidentally, Cook was 81.5 percent for 8.2 yards/target]. Even after these 3 guys sign their 2nd contracts, they should all remain good values for most of the remainder of Allen's career. Here's 4 relatively conservative projections for 2024 Targets Yards Yards/Target Kincaid 110 800 7.3 Shakir 80 800 10 Samuel 90 750 8.3 All RBs 80 650 8.1 That equates to 3,000 yards on 360 targets. Allen has averaged 36 attempts per game over the past 4 years. 36x17=612 which leaves 252 targets for Wr1, Wr2, Wr5 & Knox. Allen has never thrown over 4,600 yards in his career. If he were to average 7.9 yards per attempt on the remaining 252 attempts, then he would have thrown for 5,000. Just for perspective, Shakir led the league in yards/target last year at 13.6. Aiyuk was 2nd at 12.8 & Diggs was a pedestrian 7.4, unlike 2020 when he was 9.2 For me, ideally Beane couples pick #28 & our 2025 2nd round pick to either trade for Aiyuk, or move up to get Brian Thomas Jr. Then, if he took our 2025 first round pick to trade back into the 2nd round to grab either Legette or McConkey, that would be nice. We'd have the fastest & most dynamic set of skill players in team history. It sounds like we can easily create North of 60 million in cap space for 2025 & free up a bunch more room in 2026. That's a fantastic kicker to this Diggs trade, because it'll allow us to target multiple pro bowl free agents in the next couple of years. All of these factors combined, will allow us to compete with KC for the next 8 years & we'll be able to view this trade for what it is ... a prelude to a parade!" 17 1 2 5 Quote
drummernut74 Posted April 8 Posted April 8 Everything is cool except trading 2025 1st to get into the 2nd. Totally illogical when we are going to have to start replenishing on D 9 11 2 Quote
dave mcbride Posted April 8 Author Posted April 8 1 minute ago, drummernut74 said: Everything is cool except trading 2025 1st to get into the 2nd. Totally illogical when we are going to have to start replenishing on D We'll likely have a large amount of cap space, however, so we will be able to sign good defenders. The idea is to build up the offense for THIS season and take advantage of a generational WR draft. Thomas/Aiyuk and McConkey?!? Sign me up for that. 7 Quote
ColoradoBills Posted April 8 Posted April 8 5 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: Here's 4 relatively conservative projections for 2024 Targets Yards Yards/Target Kincaid 110 800 7.3 Shakir 80 800 10 Samuel 90 750 8.3 All RBs 80 650 8.1 Last year all the RBs had 86 targets. Personally, I like to see that go up slightly to 100 for the season. That equates to 1 more per game. FWIW, Johson was 7 of 7 for 8.9 yards per reception. 1 Quote
Big Turk Posted April 8 Posted April 8 (edited) 5 minutes ago, drummernut74 said: Everything is cool except trading 2025 1st to get into the 2nd. Totally illogical when we are going to have to start replenishing on D Forget about defense. If we are going to win it's on the back of the offense. How many times do you have to see the elite D fail in the playoffs to know no matter how good they make the D it's not going to matter? McD should be able to make due with what he gets on D. Edited April 8 by Big Turk 5 2 4 1 1 3 Quote
Watkins101 Posted April 8 Posted April 8 Remember when Robert Foster had over 500 yards the final 8 games of the season, and everybody here was saying he was gonna be a 1/2? Kinda feels like that with all the hype Shakir is getting. 1 5 2 3 Quote
Warriorspikes51 Posted April 8 Posted April 8 (edited) Very interesting take. I like the thought process of Brian Thomas Jr & Xavier Legette I believe we can pull it off while keeping our 2025 1st Anywhere from 13-19 would be my target zone for BTJ. Saints at 14 or Seahawks at 16 make sense. Estimated cost: 28, 4th, 2025 2nd (MIN/HOU) Then, assuming Legette makes it into Round 2... Commanders and Panthers both have two seconds Perhaps 60, 5th, 2025 2nd to move up for Legette Edited April 8 by Warriorspikes51 6 Quote
Ya Digg? Posted April 8 Posted April 8 Giving up a first round pick for a second round pick is NOT a good idea. You’re giving up a first rounder for a guy who is definitively a second round player. Has a team ever given up a first round for a second round? I like the rest of it, but you lost me at the trade (also not completely sold on Aiyuk) 2 Quote
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted April 8 Posted April 8 (edited) I'm a big supporter of the double dip for WR with this great crew coming from college. I also believe that combining the draft pick WRs (bigger, physical, speed guys) with the crew we have will have a dynamic impact on the offense. Not worried about Diggs being gone in the least if they do that. Plus, let's face it, we need to outscore teams like KC, we've tried the over investment in D strategy for McDermott and it doesn't work. EDIT: I don't love the trading for a guy idea and then paying him. We could get 2 studs on rookie deals and go with that. Edited April 8 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower 3 Quote
dave mcbride Posted April 8 Author Posted April 8 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said: Giving up a first round pick for a second round pick is NOT a good idea. You’re giving up a first rounder for a guy who is definitively a second round player. Has a team ever given up a first round for a second round? I like the rest of it, but you lost me at the trade (also not completely sold on Aiyuk) There are so many good receivers in this draft that it's likely a guy who may well have been a first rounder in other years (McConkey, who is really good and a great athlete) falls to the second. It's not about the number assigned to the round of the pick; it's about the talent level of the player. I think his point is a) take advantage of a great WR draft NOW and b) get Allen his elite skill players sooner rather than later. Aiyuk is really good, as evidenced by finishing #2 in yards per target last season. Edited April 8 by dave mcbride 1 Quote
Big Turk Posted April 8 Posted April 8 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Watkins101 said: Remember when Robert Foster had over 500 yards the final 8 games of the season, and everybody here was saying he was gonna be a 1/2? Kinda feels like that with all the hype Shakir is getting. Not even close... Shakir is a far better receiver than Foster ever was and can run the full complement of routes. His rookie year, he led the NFL in percentage of routes he was open against man coverage and last year he led the NFL in yards/target for any WR with 45+ targets. Brandon Aiyuk was 2nd, and he led WR's in yards/target for any WR over 50 targets. Shakir has a chance to make a huge leap this season, and if anything, I think people are underhyping it. He reminds me of a cross between Robert Woods and Andre Reed. He has shifty, RB type moves in the open field and has enough speed to pull away from people, even if it looks deceptive and like he isn't really moving that fast. Also has an ability to get low and bounce off tacklers(like that crazy TD against the Steelers in the playoffs). 10 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: There are so many good receivers in this draft that it's likely a guy who may well have been a first rounder in other years (McConkey, who is really good and a great athlete) falls to the second. It's not about the number assigned to the round of the pick; it's about the talent level of the player. I think his point is a) take advantage of a great WR draft NOW and b) get Allen his elite skill players sooner rather than later. Aiyuk is really good, as evidenced by finishing #2 in yards per target last season. He finished #1 for any WR with 50+ targets. 2nd to Shakir in any WR with 45+ targets. Edited April 8 by Big Turk 4 Quote
Alphadawg7 Posted April 8 Posted April 8 9 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said: Very interesting take. I like the thought process of Brian Thomas Jr & Xavier Legette I believe we can pull it off while keeping our 2025 1st Anywhere from 13-19 would be my target zone for BTJ. Saints at 14 or Seahawks at 16 make since. Estimated cost: 28, 4th, 2025 2nd (MIN/HOU) Then, assuming Legette makes it into Round 2... Commanders and Panthers both have two seconds Perhaps 60, 5th, 2025 2nd to move up for Legette lol…another 0% chance scenario. Every thread you’re giving away the farm to get every WR with no consideration for substantial amount of holes on this team. There is absolutely no chance Beane is trading up TWICE in first 2 rounds for 2 WRs leaving us very little ammo to find the players we need in our secondary and DL as well. Not to mention another RB and OL depth we are likely going to use some of the day 3 picks on. And to do so in the deepest and richest WR draft in history is utterly insane. To get into the mid teens, it’s probably going to cost us our first next year as well without having to gut some of our draft capital this year that we need. Everyone forgets the other team needs to want to move back to and be worth passing on the talent that will be there at OL, DL, CB, and even the WR for themselves. 1 1 1 Quote
BarleyNY Posted April 8 Posted April 8 32 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: In the wake of the Diggs trade, a friend had this reaction and came up with the scenario below. Curious to know what people think because it actually seems genuinely plausible to me, and I'd love it: "A bunch of you know, I've been hoping since February that Beane would trade Diggs for a 2nd or 3rd rounder. The fact that he was able to get what should be a high end #2 in 2025 is great. What Beane did was jettison the 4 receivers that caught the ball at a 63% clip & kept the 3 guys that collectively caught it at an 82% catch rate. Shakir, Cook & Kincaid we're all top 30 in the league in that category [incidentally, Cook was 81.5 percent for 8.2 yards/target]. Even after these 3 guys sign their 2nd contracts, they should all remain good values for most of the remainder of Allen's career. Here's 4 relatively conservative projections for 2024 Targets Yards Yards/Target Kincaid 110 800 7.3 Shakir 80 800 10 Samuel 90 750 8.3 All RBs 80 650 8.1 That equates to 3,000 yards on 360 targets. Allen has averaged 36 attempts per game over the past 4 years. 36x17=612 which leaves 252 targets for Wr1, Wr2, Wr5 & Knox. Allen has never thrown over 4,600 yards in his career. If he were to average 7.9 yards per attempt on the remaining 252 attempts, then he would have thrown for 5,000. Just for perspective, Shakir led the league in yards/target last year at 13.6. Aiyuk was 2nd at 12.8 & Diggs was a pedestrian 7.4, unlike 2020 when he was 9.2 For me, ideally Beane couples pick #28 & our 2025 2nd round pick to either trade for Aiyuk, or move up to get Brian Thomas Jr. Then, if he took our 2025 first round pick to trade back into the 2nd round to grab either Legette or McConkey, that would be nice. We'd have the fastest & most dynamic set of skill players in team history. It sounds like we can easily create North of 60 million in cap space for 2025 & free up a bunch more room in 2026. That's a fantastic kicker to this Diggs trade, because it'll allow us to target multiple pro bowl free agents in the next couple of years. All of these factors combined, will allow us to compete with KC for the next 8 years & we'll be able to view this trade for what it is ... a prelude to a parade!" Aiyuk would be a tremendous addition to the Bills, but we can’t fit his contract under the cap so that won’t work. I have zero interest in a big trade up for any WR outside the top 3. Too much capital for not much difference than can be had near 28. 1 1 1 Quote
Big Turk Posted April 8 Posted April 8 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: lol…another 0% chance scenario. Every thread you’re giving away the farm to get every WR with no consideration for substantial amount of holes on this team. There is absolutely no chance Beane is trading up TWICE in first 2 rounds for 2 WRs leaving us very little ammo to find the players we need in our secondary and DL as well. Not to mention another RB and OL depth we are likely going to use some of the day 3 picks on. And to do so in the deepest and richest WR draft in history is utterly insane. To get into the mid teens, it’s probably going to cost us our first next year as well without having to gut some of our draft capital this year that we need. Everyone forgets the other team needs to want to move back to and be worth passing on the talent that will be there at OL, DL, CB, and even the WR for themselves. Considering the Bills seem to do just fine with plugging literally anyone in the secondary and doing well within the scheme, should that be a big concern? Why waste high picks when their upside is limited within the scheme and the downside is even more limited with taking a 5th or 6th round pick? Basically the scheme has a lower ceiling but much higher floor than most in terms of individual DB value. We had literally a rag tag secondary in the heat game in Miami and held them to 219 yards of total offense with Ja'Marcus Ingram, a rookie street UFA forced into playing more than half the game after being called up from the PS due to injuries and missing 3/4 of the starters, including both safeties. This call for high DB picks is insane honestly and makes little sense. There is virtually NO UPSIDE to it. DL...sure I could see some picks there, but let's be real. We tried loading up on D for multiple years and where has it gotten us? The D has failed badly ion every playoff loss, even with the #1 and #2 defenses in the NFL during the season. Why waste your time trying to load up on D again? Settle for a middle of the pack D that makes a few key plays a game and load up on offense. You aren't going to win with D, you may be able to win with O. 7 minutes ago, BarleyNY said: Aiyuk would be a tremendous addition to the Bills, but we can’t fit his contract under the cap so that won’t work. I have zero interest in a big trade up for any WR outside the top 3. Too much capital for not much difference than can be had near 28. Sure we could. $10 mil is freed up on the cap post June 1st due to the Tre White cut and if they are making that trade they would already likely have an extension in place and the first year of that could EASILY be made to fit within the cap and then take up what Diggs would have the following years with a little extra most likely in there. Edited April 8 by Big Turk 3 1 1 1 Quote
BarleyNY Posted April 8 Posted April 8 2 minutes ago, Big Turk said: Sure we could. $10 mil is freed up on the cap post June 1st due to the Tre White cut and if they are making that trade they would already likely have an extension in place and the first year of that could EASILY be made to fit within the cap and then take up what Diggs would have the following years with a little extra most likely in there. Won’t work. Aiyuk’s current contract is over $14M. If you trade this year’s picks, then you can’t wait until after 6/1 to trade for him since that’s after the draft. Even if we did, we still don’t have the room since we need that $10M for the season. Also his next contract will still have a larger cap hit than we could absorb this season. He’s going to be a $25M a year player. Quote
Shaw66 Posted April 8 Posted April 8 46 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: In the wake of the Diggs trade, a friend had this reaction and came up with the scenario below. Curious to know what people think because it actually seems genuinely plausible to me, and I'd love it: "A bunch of you know, I've been hoping since February that Beane would trade Diggs for a 2nd or 3rd rounder. The fact that he was able to get what should be a high end #2 in 2025 is great. What Beane did was jettison the 4 receivers that caught the ball at a 63% clip & kept the 3 guys that collectively caught it at an 82% catch rate. Shakir, Cook & Kincaid we're all top 30 in the league in that category [incidentally, Cook was 81.5 percent for 8.2 yards/target]. Even after these 3 guys sign their 2nd contracts, they should all remain good values for most of the remainder of Allen's career. Here's 4 relatively conservative projections for 2024 Targets Yards Yards/Target Kincaid 110 800 7.3 Shakir 80 800 10 Samuel 90 750 8.3 All RBs 80 650 8.1 That equates to 3,000 yards on 360 targets. Allen has averaged 36 attempts per game over the past 4 years. 36x17=612 which leaves 252 targets for Wr1, Wr2, Wr5 & Knox. Allen has never thrown over 4,600 yards in his career. If he were to average 7.9 yards per attempt on the remaining 252 attempts, then he would have thrown for 5,000. Just for perspective, Shakir led the league in yards/target last year at 13.6. Aiyuk was 2nd at 12.8 & Diggs was a pedestrian 7.4, unlike 2020 when he was 9.2 For me, ideally Beane couples pick #28 & our 2025 2nd round pick to either trade for Aiyuk, or move up to get Brian Thomas Jr. Then, if he took our 2025 first round pick to trade back into the 2nd round to grab either Legette or McConkey, that would be nice. We'd have the fastest & most dynamic set of skill players in team history. It sounds like we can easily create North of 60 million in cap space for 2025 & free up a bunch more room in 2026. That's a fantastic kicker to this Diggs trade, because it'll allow us to target multiple pro bowl free agents in the next couple of years. All of these factors combined, will allow us to compete with KC for the next 8 years & we'll be able to view this trade for what it is ... a prelude to a parade!" An interesting way to look at 2024. I didn't study it in depth, but I have these reactions: I actually one of the three key receivers will go over 1000 yards. Could be any of Kincaid, Shakir, or Samuel. I think that would happen on the assumption that the Bills use #28 to get the best receiver available, meaning the receiver who fits the Bills needs the best. That guy doesn't have to produce 1000 yards. All he has to do is produce 500-600. Essentially, I think what can happen in that scenario is that one of the three the Bills currently have will move up to replace Diggs as the 1000-yard guy, and the rookie will move in to replace the 500 yards, more or less, that the guy who's replacing Diggs got last season. Completely plausible in my mind. The longer I've considered this, I think the receiver problem will be solved without drastic measures. Now, I worry more about having two quality safeties and having enough depth at corner. 3 2 Quote
Big Turk Posted April 8 Posted April 8 (edited) 11 minutes ago, BarleyNY said: Won’t work. Aiyuk’s current contract is over $14M. If you trade this year’s picks, then you can’t wait until after 6/1 to trade for him since that’s after the draft. Even if we did, we still don’t have the room since we need that $10M for the season. Also his next contract will still have a larger cap hit than we could absorb this season. He’s going to be a $25M a year player. Why are you assuming we trade picks to move up in the draft? Those scenarios are independent of each other...it's not like both have to happen or neither can happen. You clearly don't understand how easy it is to manipulate the cap if you actually believe that. Players making far more than he would be making have very low cap hits in year one to facilitate these type of things. Diggs trade opened up a ton of cap space each year over the next 3 seasons following this one, I believe more than $25 million a year each year. Edited April 8 by Big Turk Quote
oldmanfan Posted April 8 Posted April 8 32 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: lol…another 0% chance scenario. Every thread you’re giving away the farm to get every WR with no consideration for substantial amount of holes on this team. There is absolutely no chance Beane is trading up TWICE in first 2 rounds for 2 WRs leaving us very little ammo to find the players we need in our secondary and DL as well. Not to mention another RB and OL depth we are likely going to use some of the day 3 picks on. And to do so in the deepest and richest WR draft in history is utterly insane. To get into the mid teens, it’s probably going to cost us our first next year as well without having to gut some of our draft capital this year that we need. Everyone forgets the other team needs to want to move back to and be worth passing on the talent that will be there at OL, DL, CB, and even the WR for themselves. Where at these holes? Maybe 1 guy at DE. We have starters at CB, S, LB, O line, RB, DT, DE. 1 2 Quote
<bills4life> Posted April 8 Posted April 8 59 minutes ago, dave mcbride said: We'll likely have a large amount of cap space, however, so we will be able to sign good defenders. The idea is to build up the offense for THIS season and take advantage of a generational WR draft. Thomas/Aiyuk and McConkey?!? Sign me up for that. This exactly. Quote
nedboy7 Posted April 8 Posted April 8 (edited) I'd only move up for Odunze if he dropped past 12. After that I would rather have Legette than BT Jr. Wondering what people think of that idea. Lots of people have Legette ranked higher than BT Jr. I like him better actually. Way more proven in the short and intermediate game. Legette is a late break out due to a late position switch. Great culture fit. I would move up a few spots for him. Don't care for Worthy. Love Ricky Pearsall. Ranked as #5 for some. Complete WR. Best hands in class. Can run any route. Love Roman Wilson. Love McConkey. So many great options after the top 3. I think no need to make a huge trade. Edited April 8 by nedboy7 1 1 Quote
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