Who will be the head scratcher pick(s) in the first round?

[Sestak4ever]

Every year there are teams that take a player most had pegged as third rounders in the first round, whether it be the Raiders, New England, whoever. Who will it be this year? Which team, or teams, will reach for a player that makes everyone say “Huh?”. I love when this happens because it just means someone is falling closer to the Bills.

[gonzo1105]

Seattle is also one of those teams who tends to do things that are not chalk in the first round.

[BuffaloBillyG]

Maybe not as much of an overdraft, but I think at least 1 of the WRs people see as late 1st early 2nd may go ahead of Brian Thomas. 

 

On the flip side one of McCarthy, Penix or Nix will slide way further than most mock drafters want to believe. 

[FireChans]

Saints and Seattle are easily betting favorites. They love drafting late day 2 guys in round 1.

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Seattle is also one of those teams who tends to do things that are not chalk in the first round.

 

No team makes me press scroll quite like the Seahawks.

[Goin Breakdown]

Never rule out a first round long snapper. 

[Rockinon]

Nobody. They trade down to the second round.

[Doc Brown]

It seems to have gotten less and less over the years.  I don't remember last year any first round surprise.  Gibbs, McDonald, Campbell, and Harrison were pry the biggest "reaches" but none where shocks that they went in the first round The biggest surprise was Will Levis falling into the 2nd.

[boater]

You can always count on Bill Belichick to make a head scratcher.

 

Though, that may not be the case for 2024. He has a high pick and the QB that NE desperately needs will be there.

[NickelCity]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Maybe not as much of an overdraft, but I think at least 1 of the WRs people see as late 1st early 2nd may go ahead of Brian Thomas. 

 

Agree. I think #4 on most WR boards has huge variance. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Maybe not as much of an overdraft, but I think at least 1 of the WRs people see as late 1st early 2nd may go ahead of Brian Thomas. 

 

On the flip side one of McCarthy, Penix or Nix will slide way further than most mock drafters want to believe. 

Interesting, any perspective on why you think Thomas will slide and/or not be 4th off the board?  I was watching tape of him last night, salivating at the thought of Josh throwing to him.  Seemed like he would take Gabe’s role instantly but be way more dangerous.

[NickelCity]

12 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Interesting, any perspective on why you think Thomas will slide and/or not be 4th off the board?  I was watching tape of him last night, salivating at the thought of Josh throwing to him.  Seemed like he would take Gabe’s role instantly but be way more dangerous.

 

Not enough evidence of a whole route tree.

[Kirby Jackson]

I’ll go with Denver. I think that they may WAY overdraft a QB. Maybe it isn’t a head scratcher, because they need a guy, but if they take a guy in the 1st it’ll look ridiculous.

[BuffaloBillyG]

15 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Interesting, any perspective on why you think Thomas will slide and/or not be 4th off the board?  I was watching tape of him last night, salivating at the thought of Josh throwing to him.  Seemed like he would take Gabe’s role instantly but be way more dangerous.

It's not that I think he will "slide". It's what the reality often is between the draft expert community and actual team boards is typically pretty different. 

 

We tend to hear "Player X is the #4 WR" and then other" experts parrot that enough until it becomes thought of as a common fact. WR this year will come down to the eye of the beholder. And even though Thomas is talented the odds that another team may see more upside in another player is there. Add in, the teams see the medicals. They talk in person to the draftees. They do background checks and look into things on a whole different level than just watching the film. 

[Chaos]

56 minutes ago, boater said:

You can always count on Bill Belichick to make a head scratcher.

 

Though, that may not be the case for 2024. He has a high pick and the QB that NE desperately needs will be there.

Plus Belichek is no longer with the Patriots.  So there is that. 

[MJS]

55 minutes ago, boater said:

You can always count on Bill Belichick to make a head scratcher.

 

Though, that may not be the case for 2024. He has a high pick and the QB that NE desperately needs will be there.

And he can't screw up their draft because he is unemployed.

[GASabresIUFan]

NC States Payton Wilson. Best ILB on the board but with a second round grade.

[Jrb1979]

A head scratcher would be any team trading away multiple picks to move up and draft a WR. 

[OldTimer1960]

On 4/6/2024 at 5:51 PM, strive_for_five_guy said:

Interesting, any perspective on why you think Thomas will slide and/or not be 4th off the board?  I was watching tape of him last night, salivating at the thought of Josh throwing to him.  Seemed like he would take Gabe’s role instantly but be way more dangerous.

Thomas’ physical tools are tremendous and you can see he has a lot of upside, but right now he isn’t a finished product.  Bama admittedly has great corners, but they basically erased Thomas in that game.  He is an outstanding prospect, but I don’t think he would step into lead dog role right away, maybe not even this season.

Edited April 12 by OldTimer1960

[ganesh]

2 hours ago, boater said:

You can always count on Bill Belichick to make a head scratcher.

 

Though, that may not be the case for 2024. He has a high pick and the QB that NE desperately needs will be there.

That was his parting gift to the Patriots!