Impact Players and the case for doing whatever it takes at WR1

[mannc]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

And why do you think the defense lays down?

 

KC had an elite defense all season.  When matched against Josh Allen, even missing his WR2 in Gabe Davis, they were in a world of hurt until Chris Jones made a play by beating Dawkins to prevent a TD.  
 

Ballgame. 
 

They were struggling against Philly in the Super Bowl, but had a return for a TD and got bailed by the refs. 
 

Snead, when not locking down Diggs, forced a fumble to alter the Ravens game. 
 

Who’s making plays like that for us?  Poyer kept the game alive with his goal line punch out, but that’s the extent that I can remember in all these big games (im not talking about WC games where we’re clearly better than the opponent)

 

Meanwhile, Kelce shows up every game for Mahomes.  So did Hill. 

 

 

The Bills made the exact same play vs KC that Snead made against Flowers in the Ravens game, but it didn’t matter because the Bills were badly out played at home…almost 8 YPP vs just over 4 YPP… just not good enough.

[BobbyC81]

12 hours ago, SCBills said:

Justin Simmons, while I’m cautious in that idea, and say Aiyuk or Nabers would completely change the narrative going into this season.  
 

That’s the interesting choice presented because doing something like this, would mean we have some holes at depth/rotational spots with late round rookies or JAG free agents.. which is something Beane hasn’t really been willing to do. 

We don’t know how good Joe Brady may turn out to be, but obviously coaching definitely matters.  Andy Reid got rid of T. Hill and was left with Kelce, has beens (MVS) and rookies.  The KC offense had its struggles and the team relied more on the  defense but when the playoffs came they could rely on Rice and the others to make enough plays to win it all again.  Reid had them ready to play.

 

As the OP stated, this team is mainly Josh Allen.  He’s the only one teams have to game plan for.  So, when you don’t have the marquee players, it comes down to coaching and scheming.  Look at the Niners.  They do have the weapons in Kittle, Aiyuk , McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, but Shanahan also figured out that you could have receivers running around all over behind the line of scrimmage so he used that to advantage.  By season’s end, a couple of teams copied that approach but I don’t recall seeing the Bills try it once.

 

 Good coaching comes up with ideas that the opposition isn’t prepared for.  Then, when the opponents adjust, you try something else.   This can make your team very successful, even with just very good players.

[GunnerBill]

15 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Justin Simmons

 

Do you think maybe he and Beane have already talked turkey? I am kinda kidding myself to hope that Beane knows he has very little money especially until the Tre deal cash comes off the books and has said to Simmons "look come play for a contender, don't bother yourself with OTAs and mini camp, stay in shape but have a nice break - here is the deal we'd offer if someone blows that out of the water in the meantime fair enough but otherwise no need for you to do the visits circuit, we want you." 

[Kirby Jackson]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Do you think maybe he and Beane have already talked turkey? I am kinda kidding myself to hope that Beane knows he has very little money especially until the Tre deal cash comes off the books and has said to Simmons "look come play for a contender, don't bother yourself with OTAs and mini camp, stay in shape but have a nice break - here is the deal we'd offer if someone blows that out of the water in the meantime fair enough but otherwise no need for you to do the visits circuit, we want you." 

I actually think that’s exactly what has happened. Maybe it’s wishful thinking but it sounds like things have been quiet on the Simmons front for a little while. I’d assume his “market” heats up again right after the draft. The Bills probably have an offer out there that they can’t pull the trigger on until June 1. It would require a level of trust from each side but certainly possible. 

[Chaos]

16 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

There’s really only 1 FA left now that can be considered an impact player. The Bills should sign him post June 1. 
 

They’re going to need impact player(s) in the draft. They have a hard time finding them.

We are only four seasons away from asking "will we miss the departed players?"

[MiracleAtRich1393]

17 hours ago, SCBills said:

Honestly, that’s a great question .. and the answer to that is depressing to think about. 
 

Reality:

 

Spags and Anarumo are better DC’s than what we have/have had in McDermott, Frazier etc. 

 

CIN doesn’t have any reason to have a defense they can rely on like that in the playoffs, aside from the fact their coaching and schematics are on another level. 
 

But we have what we have, so it is what it is.  Which is why we needed a Von Miller, before that blew up in our face. 
 

But the fact is, the year they went to the Super Bowl, they still had 3 elite impact players.   Just all on one side of the ball. 
 

Not to mention DJ Reader played a lot more like a Chris Jones level impact than Ed Oliver level in the playoffs (a.k.a. neutralized completely)

[ToGoGo]

19 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Milano is (and was) the 2nd best player on the team. He’s a top of the league player at his position. I’d says he’s the only other star on the roster. 
 

The Bills have a lot of good players and most of them are ascending still. They lack top of the roster talent for sure. They’ve lost to the teams who have more top talent.

Milano is 30 this year and recovering from a bad injury. LBs tend to start to decline, albeit slower than other positions, in years 8-10. 

19 hours ago, SCBills said:

Remember the year we were Super Bowl favorites?

 

We rolled into LA with Allen, prime Diggs and Von.  All 3 played like impact players.  Team looked like a juggernaut. 
 

Then Diggs faded and disappears in the Playoffs.  He’s gone.   Von gets hurt.  Hasn’t been the same since.  
 

Who do we keep losing to in recent contending years?  KC (2) and CIN (1). 

CIN Impact Players:

 

Burrow, Chase, Higgins

 

KC Impact Players:

 

Mahomes, Kelce, Jones, Hill

 

Mahomes, Kelce, Jones, Snead

 

Who does KC roll into ‘24 with this year?

 

Mahomes, Kelce, Jones

 

We should always be at 3 impact players.  That seems to be a consensus number of what you need to lead your team into the games where it matters.   Who can you count on to step up in the clutch. 
 

We enter this year with:

 

Allen. ?.  ?. 
 

Kincaid is a guy we can reasonably hope becomes an impact player.
 

So where does the third impact player come from?

 

Not sure I see any DT’s or EDGE rushers out there for us that fit the bill.  Same goes for CB.  
 

Maybe Simmons at S?  But that’s not a position I’d advocate paying big money at, especially for an older player.  And can a S really take over a game?
 

All roads lead to WR1.  
 

The Bills, who haven’t been able to get over the hump, could draft around 28 and or slightly move up for a Tier 2 WR.  And that’s fine.. maybe this time it works.  Maybe they double up with a vet or in RD2 and we have a really nice WR room, albeit without a true game wrecker. 
 

Or maybe we finally get that guy to join Allen and potentially Kincaid.  To give us that 3rd impact player.  
 

A trade for an Aiyuk level receiver or packaging up picks for Nabers would signal a massive shift from building a roster with no holes, above average talent everywhere and plenty of depth (who haven’t been able to win when it matters) to a team with guys coming at you that can truly take over a game. 
 

There’s risk involved if doing this through the draft, but the Big 3 all seem to be consensus Top 5 picks in any other draft. 

 

Of course, the other option is fielding a competitive team this year, while playing it safe with the intention of going big fish hunting in FA next year. 

So.. which way Beane?

 

Because at some point.. Josh Allen needs 2 other impact players riding with him.  A luxury that has helped propel Mahomes over him year in/year out. 
 

The obvious way to get there this year is by going all out to address WR1. 

I think Kincaid becomes a Hockenson level player, and not a Kelce level player. That’s great but not HOF impact like what you are suggesting. 
 

Simply put, unless Bernard takes another leap, the Bills need a Justin Jefferson or Marvin Harrison Jr to get that type of player in 2024/2025. 

[nosejob]

18 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

The reason we are losing in the playoffs is not for lack of impact players

 

It's because the defense lays down. It's as simple as that. They need to play better

And there it is...We signed Von to be "A closer" and got 8 sacks for 9 digits. IMO, the most impactful player we could sign is Latu. Can anyone imagine having a T.J.Watt on this line?...and he may just fall within a couple of picks from us. To me it's a no-brainer.

 

If I'm BB, I'm preparing for this possibility and getting a plan B ready to quickly use a 1st and 2nd next year to get right back in the game and come away with 2 good WRs.

 

There are multiple teams with two 2nds and two 3rds.

[Buffalo Boy]

   IF Cooke suddenly developed above average hands, he would be it.

   My hope is he spends the off season working with whatever “ Catching guru” there is to figure it out. Also, adding some route running work to it and dude is a Superstar.

[SoCal Deek]

I realize that it’s basketball season but…..This is not the NBA. Football is far less about impact players and far more about strategy. (We could go on for hours, but the Bills didn’t lose to KC a few months ago because of a lack of impact players.)

[Kirby Jackson]

3 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

I realize that it’s basketball season but…..This is not the NBA. Football is far less about impact players and far more about strategy. (We could go on for hours, but the Bills didn’t lose to KC a few months ago because of a lack of impact players.)

I mean they aren’t as important as the NBA but the OP shows the impact players on past champs and on the best teams. The Bills had 1 player listed on PFFs top 101 players of the 2023 season. They don’t need to have 9 of the top 101 players but they need to have 4ish. 

3 hours ago, ToGoGo said:

Milano is 30 this year and recovering from a bad injury. LBs tend to start to decline, albeit slower than other positions, in years 8-10. 

 

The point remains. He’s been a star. He’s the most likely player (outside of Josh) to remain a star. That doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed but as of today, he is.

Edited April 7 by Kirby Jackson

[GASabresIUFan]

Don’t we have a guy considered to be the best Nickel Corner in the NFL?

 

Don’t we have a RB who finished 3rd in scrimmage yards with almost 1600 yards? 
 

What about Milano and Dawkins?  How long until Benard and Kincaid are consider top impact players.  Shakir put up elite production on just 45 targets.  What might happen if he gets 100 next season?  
 

Calling someone “elite” or an impact player is always hindsight anyway. Miller was an impact player when we got him, but isn’t now.  Diggs’ impact disappeared mid-season in 2023.  

[nosejob]

8 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

We don’t know how good Joe Brady may turn out to be, but obviously coaching definitely matters.  Andy Reid got rid of T. Hill and was left with Kelce, has beens (MVS) and rookies.  The KC offense had its struggles and the team relied more on the  defense but when the playoffs came they could rely on Rice and the others to make enough plays to win it all again.  Reid had them ready to play.

 

As the OP stated, this team is mainly Josh Allen.  He’s the only one teams have to game plan for.  So, when you don’t have the marquee players, it comes down to coaching and scheming.  Look at the Niners.  They do have the weapons in Kittle, Aiyuk , McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, but Shanahan also figured out that you could have receivers running around all over behind the line of scrimmage so he used that to advantage.  By season’s end, a couple of teams copied that approach but I don’t recall seeing the Bills try it once.

 

 Good coaching comes up with ideas that the opposition isn’t prepared for.  Then, when the opponents adjust, you try something else.   This can make your team very successful, even with just very good players.

This makes me think of McD's presser (I think during the owners meetings) where he talked about the need to evolve and zig when they think you're zagging and wearing corduroys before they come back and related gibberish. I am encouraged by that given the coaching changes.....I think

[Nextmanup]

22 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Matt Milano has entered the chat...

Love Matt, but he is NOT an impact player of the type that will win championships.  It's not Matt's fault; he's a LB.

 

We need impact players at positions that MATTER to winning close games in the big moments.

 

No one on D is going to do that IMO.

 

 

[Dillenger4]

Go get Ayouk. You know what you are getting.

Move up a few spots and get Latu.

Boom - this team would be set.

Now we need Von to be better (not great) but better, Milano to be recovered, DQJ to have an impactful season and Curtis Samuel and Ty Johnson to have good seasons.

Then - Brady to scheme it all on O the way we know he should.

Then Cook and Allen cook it up.

Kincaid, Knox, Rasul, Bernard. BOOM baby.

 

Only 2 new names listed above. And this is a powerhouse. Hearing Beane and SF are in talks anyway... its moving.

 

 

[nosejob]

4 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

Go get Ayouk. You know what you are getting.

Move up a few spots and get Latu.

Boom - this team would be set.

Now we need Von to be better (not great) but better, Milano to be recovered, DQJ to have an impactful season and Curtis Samuel and Ty Johnson to have good seasons.

Then - Brady to scheme it all on O the way we know he should.

Then Cook and Allen cook it up.

Kincaid, Knox, Rasul, Bernard. BOOM baby.

 

Only 2 new names listed above. And this is a powerhouse. Hearing Beane and SF are in talks anyway... its moving.

 

 

Latu would be a home run!

[Dillenger4]

2 minutes ago, nosejob said:

Latu would be a home run!

Absolutely and so would Ayouk.

 

You can get Ayouk for two second picks thus keeping our #28 this year.

[SoCal Deek]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I mean they aren’t as important as the NBA but the OP shows the impact players on past champs and on the best teams. The Bills had 1 player listed on PFFs top 101 players of the 2023 season. They need don’t need to have 9 of the top 101 players but they need to have 4ish. 

The point remains. He’s been a star. He’s the most likely player (outside of Josh) to remain a star. That doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed but as of today, he is.

My point is that it’s not for a lack of trying. They signed Von Miller and he got hurt. They re-signed Knox and he disappeared. They drafted an athletic freak at MLB and his performance was perpetually suspect. They waited for their #2 WR to live up to his ‘big game’ moniker and yet…he clearly never did. 

[Billl]

31 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

Love Matt, but he is NOT an impact player of the type that will win championships.  It's not Matt's fault; he's a LB.

 

We need impact players at positions that MATTER to winning close games in the big moments.

 

No one on D is going to do that IMO.

 

 

He also misses more tackles than anyone in football.  He’s a fantastic player, but he’s got his limitations.

[SCBills]

22 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

My point is that it’s not for a lack of trying. They signed Von Miller and he got hurt. They re-signed Knox and he disappeared. They drafted an athletic freak at MLB and his performance was perpetually suspect. They waited for their #2 WR to live up to his ‘big game’ moniker and yet…he clearly never did. 

Von Miller - valid

 

Otherwise, maybe the lesson is.. lean into high end weapons, not a developmental TE, a MLB and WR2.

 

What a bizarre team building philosophy when displayed that way.