New Buscaglia mock has Bills trading up to 7 for Malik Nabers

[Logic]

16 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

I posted this in another thread. I think it's worth hearing again. Here it is:

 

Quick question: What do these players have in common? Kevin White, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (from Clemson to the Chargers), John Ross, Drake London and Sammy Watkins?

 

All WRs chosen in the top ten picks in the last ten years.

 

We tend to think "a top ten guy, he'll be a Ja'Marr Chase." And that ain't necessarily so. There are some very good WRs chosen in the top ten of those same drafts. But more who never justified the pick.

 

For those curious, here are all the rest of the top ten in those ten years:  Chase, Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Garrett Wilson, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans. That's five terrific players, one pretty damn good one in Smith and again, Kevin White, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (from Clemson to the Chargers), John Ross, Drake London and Sammy Watkins.

 

That's why you don't make such massive trade-ups unless you're doing it for a franchise QB. GMs tend to get carried away by their surety in their own abilities. And that's fools gold. Very very very few are genuine sure things. That's why Massey and Thaler and all of their inheritors say what they say. The data says tradeups that big are desperate, not to be made except for a franchise QB, as drafting a possible franchise QB is worth the prospect of a possible catastrophic failure, because you pretty much can't win without one.

 

I appreciate the post.

However, Julio Jones (who the Falcons made a move similar to what we're discussing here for the Bills) and Mike Evans are likely headed to the Hall of Fame, and Ja'Marr Chase has certainly shown that kind of talent, too (though obviously he needs to sustain it for a decade+ to have a shot at the Hall).

My point is that yes, sometimes you strike out when you draft a receiver early. But sometimes you also draft an elite player, and maybe even a Hall of Fame player.

Ask the Bills front office that traded up for Watkins if they regret their decision, and they'll surely tell you they do. But ask the Falcons front office that traded up for Julio Jones if they regret THEIR decision, and they'll surely tell you they don't.

Again, it all comes down to risk tolerance. No one is refuting that there is great risk inherent in trading up for a receiver. There is also potentially great reward. Those who feel that you should "never" trade up in the draft for a receiver are, in my opinion, simply opposed to taking the risk that that move represents. Those of us who don't mind the idea, and maybe even advocate for it, are willing to accept the risk.

As I've stated previously in this thread, I think the Bills need more elite playmakers around Josh Allen, and I think their best chance at adding an elite playmaker to the offense in this draft is to trade up for Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, or Brian Thomas. None of those players are sure things. They're impressive enough prospects, though, that I'm okay with taking the risk.

[Warriorspikes51]

If Nabers and Odunze are unattainable,

 

we should be able to move up for Brian Thomas Jr.  

 

Estimate a 28, 4th & 2025 2nd 

 

keep pick 60, maybe we’re able to move up again for Xavier Legette. May cost our other 2025 2nd. Worth it IMO.

 

2 BIG DAWGS on the Outside both with elite speed 

 

would be party time in this place to come away with those 2 and still have our 1st next year

Edited April 6 by Warriorspikes51

[HappyDays]

I could make peace with trading away next year's 1st knowing that we will likely have a high 2nd rounder by way of Minnesota/Houston, but giving away this year's 2nd is a bridge too far IMO. Having just one pick in the top 125 of a good draft class would be disappointing. And I love Nabers, he's my favorite Bills fit in the class, I just don't think we can afford to give away so many resources considering we just jettisoned a bunch of starters. Draft two WRs in the top 50 and there is still a good chance one of them becomes a superstar, and we can easily pull that off if we maneuver around the board.

 

One option I've considered for a trade up (but I don't think Beane would) is using Spencer Brown like we used Cordy Glenn in 2018. He's entering a contract year and personally I think he will price himself out of Buffalo - when you have a franchise QB contract you can't pay a RT top of the market money. Getting good draft value back for him one year before he walks in FA would make sense.

 

The Steelers would make sense for that idea. They probably want to move Broderick Jones to LT. Going from #28 to #20 in exchange for Spencer Brown would be the equivalent of getting pick #77 for him which I think is fair. Maybe we can also finagle a pick swap as part of the deal, their #98 for our #128. In that scenario the total trade value would be equivalent to us getting pick #65 for Spencer Brown. For a young RT on the rise that feels like the right value.

 

If we are at pick #20 we could trade up to #6 with the Giants without giving away exorbitant draft capital. Probably our 1st next year with maybe our newly obtained 3rd this year. I think 4 QBs will end up coming off the board before any other position, so at #6 we would have 2 to choose from out of Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze. We'd still have our 2nd rounder and 7 picks on day three. Heading into 2025 we'd have no 1st but two 2nds, a typical complement of picks after that, and some comp picks coming too.

 

I talked myself into this. At the expense of a starting RT and a future 1st rounder we could come away with an elite WR1.

[Process]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I could make peace with trading away next year's 1st knowing that we will likely have a high 2nd rounder by way of Minnesota/Houston, but giving away this year's 2nd is a bridge too far IMO. Having just one pick in the top 125 of a good draft class would be disappointing. And I love Nabers, he's my favorite Bills fit in the class, I just don't think we can afford to give away so many resources considering we just jettisoned a bunch of starters. Draft two WRs in the top 50 and there is still a good chance one of them becomes a superstar, and we can easily pull that off if we maneuver around the board.

 

One option I've considered for a trade up (but I don't think Beane would) is using Spencer Brown like we used Cordy Glenn in 2018. He's entering a contract year and personally I think he will price himself out of Buffalo - when you have a franchise QB contract you can't pay a RT top of the market money. Getting good draft value back for him one year before he walks in FA would make sense.

 

The Steelers would make sense for that idea. They probably want to move Broderick Jones to LT. Going from #28 to #20 in exchange for Spencer Brown would be the equivalent of getting pick #77 for him which I think is fair. Maybe we can also finagle a pick swap as part of the deal, their #98 for our #128. In that scenario the total trade value would be equivalent to us getting pick #65 for Spencer Brown. For a young RT on the rise that feels like the right value.

 

If we are at pick #20 we could trade up to #6 with the Giants without giving away exorbitant draft capital. Probably our 1st next year with maybe our newly obtained 3rd this year. I think 4 QBs will end up coming off the board before any other position, so at #6 we would have 2 to choose from out of Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze. We'd still have our 2nd rounder and 7 picks on day three. Heading into 2025 we'd have no 1st but two 2nds, a typical complement of picks after that, and some comp picks coming too.

 

I talked myself into this. At the expense of a starting RT and a future 1st rounder we could come away with an elite WR1.

My first thought when they signed Collins was Brown could be getting moved. I doubt they do it, and wouldn't love having new  starters at 3 spots on the OL, but I wouldn't be shocked given his contract situation. 

[DCofNC]

On 4/5/2024 at 10:34 AM, Beck Water said:

 

It's an interesting point.

 

One of the things I found interesting about the Speak! segment talking about Diggs, was someone - Emmanuel Acho?  talking about the importance of "freakazoids".  He said almost every team in the NFL has about 3, the 49rs have 6, and you can practice hard and prepare well and play hard but if you don't have enough "freakazoids" you know you're going to lose because you don't have enough talent.  

So who are the Bills' "freakazoids"?

 

Obviously, Josh Allen is one.  Diggs was one - Houston is treating him like one - Cosell thinks he's not or no longer one.  Does Cook have "freakazoid" potential?  Does Kinkaid?  

On Defense, who?  Ed Oliver?  Matt Milano?  Tre White at his best was a "freakazoid", as was "all-pro Po"

 

Obviously, the highest probability of landing a "freakazoid" is at the top of the 1st round, but all top of the 1st round picks don't become "freakazoids", and "freakazoids" can be found in every round.  

I think to get "over the hump" we truly need at least one more "freakazoid" on each side of the ball.

 

Allen and Milano are the only ones on this team. 
 

Kincaid could be one, Cook has that potential. 
 

Diggs never was.  He’s like Tre White, productive, but never scared anyone with physical ability to gut you.

[HappyDays]

I wonder which team is putting out this lukewarm attempt at a character assassination to make Nabers fall. Maybe the same team that unearthed Allen's old tweets from when he was 15 🤔

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

• Before the Diggs trade the consensus was we needed to draft a WR who has potential to be explosive. Now what I hear primarily is to still get a guy like that. The one guy is the key for me because we need to draft 2 not 1. I hope this is not lost on anyone when you step back and realize what this offense would be like with a couple young studs on rookie deals!

Edited April 7 by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

[BuffaloBill]

On 4/5/2024 at 10:33 AM, oldmanfan said:

Where are these holes?  I’ll go position by position:

 

QB:  Josh.  Duh

RB:  Cook and Williams.  Pick up a road grader late in the draft

OL:  all set there, only lost Morse and picked up Collins for depth

DL:  all set at DT, might look at DE in the draft but have 3 guys there already

LB:  no holes there

CB:  have your starters, probably add a guy late

S:  have your starters in Rapp and Edward’s, backup with Lewis, probably draft another.

 

So spend some capital to get a WR.

 

 

D-Line is hardly as set as you would like - Have to look at DE at a minimum.  They also need youth on D-line. Von is a shell of himself and getting NFL old.  Oliver is good, Epenesa a good rotational player but the rest of the group is a patchwork.

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

D-Line is hardly as set as you would like - Have to look at DE at a minimum.  They also need youth on D-line. Von is a shell of himself and getting NFL old.  Oliver is good, Epenesa a good rotational player but the rest of the group is a patchwork.

I am looking at starters, where you have to fill in a starting spot.  They have Rousseau, Epenesa, Miller at that spot.  As P pointed out they could add a draft pick ther levfor depth but it is not a hole.

[TOboy]

18 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

If Nabers and Odunze are unattainable,

 

we should be able to move up for Brian Thomas Jr.  

 

Estimate a 28, 4th & 2025 2nd 

 

keep pick 60, maybe we’re able to move up again for Xavier Legette. May cost our other 2025 2nd. Worth it IMO.

 

2 BIG DAWGS on the Outside both with elite speed 

 

would be party time in this place to come away with those 2 and still have our 1st next year

I like the plan, but I doubt Beane double dips. More likely nabs a DT or S in the 2nd. 
 

 

I’d love the big swing for Odunze or Nabers, but the move up for Thomas Jr is probably much more likely. I think his ceiling is as high as anyone’s, he’s just a little less polished. He’s less likely to step in this yea and be a true #1, but he could certainly develop into it. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

45 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

D-Line is hardly as set as you would like - Have to look at DE at a minimum.  They also need youth on D-line. Von is a shell of himself and getting NFL old.  Oliver is good, Epenesa a good rotational player but the rest of the group is a patchwork.

Yeah, sorry, don't want any more prime assets spent on defense when the rules don't allow for tackling any more 

[Steve Billieve]

I’m old enough to remember Sammy Watkins

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

18 minutes ago, Steve Billieve said:

I’m old enough to remember Sammy Watkins

Are you also old enough to remember Julio Jones?

 

Bills haven't drafted a WR in the first since 2014. That's pathetic.

 

No wonder they've absolutely sucked at the position 

[Warriorspikes51]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

I wonder which team is putting out this lukewarm attempt at a character assassination to make Nabers fall. Maybe the same team that unearthed Allen's old tweets from when he was 15 🤔

looks like he was arrested for carrying a weapon without a permit.  Was not charged on the condition the gun not be returned to him

 

https://www.wafb.com/2023/02/21/lsu-wr-malik-nabers-arrested-new-orleans/?outputType=amp

[Steve Billieve]

2 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Are you also old enough to remember Julio Jones?

 

Bills haven't drafted a WR in the first since 2014. That's pathetic.

 

No wonder they've absolutely sucked at the position 

Well, you ought to at least count 2015, and we gave up our 2020 for the position too.

[Nihilarian]

In 2018, before that year's draft, most of this entire fan base was clamoring for Brandon Beane to move up to the #2 spot held by the NY Giants to draft...QB Josh Rosen. Thus giving up many draft picks to move up.

 

Thankfully, no teams wanted to give up their draft positions. Not the Cleveland Browns at #1 & #4 overall. Not the NY Giants at #2, not the NY Jets at #3,  nor the Broncos at #5, not the Colts at #6.

 

Do any of you guys think that any of those teams would change their 2018 first-round pick at this point?

 

Beane didn't go stupid and give up the farm for Rosen or any other QB as he only gave up an extra #2 to move up from #12 to #7 with Tampa to Draft Josh Allen.

 

This isn't a QB that all you guys want to move up for and who knows if the guy will turn out to be a bum like Rosen?

 

Look at the Green Bay Packers as they seem to find top WRs in the second round. Minnesota found WR Justin Jefferson in 2020 with that #22 Buffalo first-round pick that they traded for Stephon Diggs. 

 

 

Edited April 9 by Nihilarian

[Nihilarian]

On 4/7/2024 at 3:03 PM, Steve Billieve said:

I’m old enough to remember Sammy Watkins

And, think of all the other players this franchise could have drafted in 2014 if only Whaley knew what he was doing. Trading up they could have drafted Mike Evans a 1000-yard WR every year since being drafted...but then if he had he still might be an NFL GM...somewhere. Look back at that 2014 Buffalo Bills draft class...that GM was clueless.

[starrymessenger]

On 4/7/2024 at 12:23 PM, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Are you also old enough to remember Julio Jones?

 

Bills haven't drafted a WR in the first since 2014. That's pathetic.

 

No wonder they've absolutely sucked at the position 

Jones is prolly a HOF guy, but Cleveland, being Cleveland, made a complete mess of the picks they got.

As for the thread's proposal, nah, I wouldn't do it. Too rich for my blood.

[DCofNC]

30 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

And, think of all the other players this franchise could have drafted in 2014 if only Whaley knew what he was doing. Trading up they could have drafted Mike Evans a 1000-yard WR every year since being drafted...but then if he had he still might be an NFL GM...somewhere. Look back at that 2014 Buffalo Bills draft class...that GM was clueless.

That one hurts, Watkins did look like Julio Jones 2.0, so I get the idea, hard to know he was going to be a lazy bum though.   Evans turned out to be amazing, would have been a great pick.  OBJ was also very good for quite a while, wouldn’t have minded that pick either, but alas, we took the one guy who busted.   The fact they wasted the pick on EJ was the worst.  Stupid ole coot Buddy forced a pick and we got nothing for it.   If you are confident in trading DOWN for your franchise QB, don’t take that dude.

[Nihilarian]

26 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

That one hurts, Watkins did look like Julio Jones 2.0, so I get the idea, hard to know he was going to be a lazy bum though.   Evans turned out to be amazing, would have been a great pick.  OBJ was also very good for quite a while, wouldn’t have minded that pick either, but alas, we took the one guy who busted.   The fact they wasted the pick on EJ was the worst.  Stupid ole coot Buddy forced a pick and we got nothing for it.   If you are confident in trading DOWN for your franchise QB, don’t take that dude.

What gets me is these so-called scouts, and GMs watch "highlight" films and think they know the player. If Whaley had done some actual research he would have seen that Watkins made most of his yards in screenplays at Clemson. Exactly how many screenplays did the Buffalo Bills make back in those years?

 

Doug Whaley was the GM in 2013 and went down to personally scout EJ at Florida St. He drafted Watkins to help his bad pick at QB.  2013, man that was just a bad year for QBs, Geno Smith, Mike Glennon, and Matt Barkley...

 

Fitz was the QB in 2012 under Chan Gailey and Saint Doug was hired to replace him in 2013. They should have kept Fitz...