Calling it now: You're all about to witness the arrival of Shakir

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

And I think that production would be fine if it comes to fruition.  They now need at least 1 starting WR, maybe 2, but for sure an X boundary guy, but I don't think Shakir will be carrying the offense - he is a complementary piece.

 

I agree, I am not saying he is going to be the DeAndre Hopkins of the Bills, but I do think he will be more than the role people are limiting his ceiling too.  

1 hour ago, zow2 said:

Nice analysis by the OP, but it's not a great take to say Shakir will arrive.  A lot of us have been super high on Shakir since that first training camp and feel he was underutilized from the beginning.  He arrived this past season.  He will continue to ascend this season.

 

I know there are others who have been high on him and a bigger season this year will be no surprise, but most aren't other than as a role player.  Just read this thread.  

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

All I remember is whenever I said McKenzie is not a starter you would disagree and say he is going to have a career year.  

 

And he was a starter and had a career year.

[Dillenger4]

36 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Then maybe you haven't read this thread where most either are unsure about him or disagree he can be more than a role player.  

Well, I for one agree with you 100%. I think Shakir is good and will definitely continue to grow for us. Was just razzin ya btw - all good.

[Jauronimo]

11 hours ago, Juice_32 said:

I feel like you’re usually spot on with these kinds of posts, so I’m in! 

Alpha was right about Trent Sherfield last year and won a little bit of cash betting on Trent to exceed expectations in our high flying offense.  Granted, Sherfield went for 11 catches on 20 targets with 87 yards and 1 TD, but $50 is $50.

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And he was a starter and had a career year.

 
Lol…except that wasn’t what we were really discussing or disagreeing over in regards to McKenzie.  But it’s all good, I certainly remember you being pretty active supporting and defending McKenzie that preseason against the criticisms being presented.  You feel different, so be it.  All good either way

[Don Otreply]

12 hours ago, SCBills said:

I still legitimately have no idea what Shakir is tbh. 

It appears he is an all arounder type receiver, and a real good one at that, if he was the one to get the ball in that fake punt, there is good reason to think he would have converted for the first down, jmo

[Alphadawg7]

9 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

Well, I for one agree with you 100%. I think Shakir is good and will definitely continue to grow for us. Was just razzin ya btw - all good.

Haha all good.  Been a fun topic regardless, enjoying everyone’s input.  
 

Best part about this, even if I am wrong, odds are he still proves to be a very good support player for us.  But I just have this feeling I can’t shake that he has that extra something in him that sees him get to a higher level than most think he will be.  

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 
Lol…except that wasn’t what we were really discussing or disagreeing over in regards to McKenzie.  But it’s all good, I certainly remember you being pretty active supporting and defending McKenzie that preseason against the criticisms being presented.  You feel different, so be it.  All good either way

 

It was EXACTLY what we were discussing. You seem to recall me arguing McKenzie was a stud or something which was certainly never my position. It was that he was best placed to start in 2022 and would win the competition and start at slot (my original position was actually you'd see something of a jobshare with Crowder due to their differing skillsets but that McKenzie would take the lion share of the snaps because he separated better and Crowder would likely get hurt - that took about 3 games to come to pass). You were arguing not only that McKenzie shouldn't start, but that he wouldn't. He did. And we agreed at the time that career year was not a particularly high bar and that is why I set 500 yards as a target projection. He fell 77 yards short of that. That was the only extent within that conversation to which I was wrong. 

[QLBillsFan]

12 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's not a 1:1 comparison but this was the pro-Gabe Davis narrative after 2020. As we found out, yards per target doesn't automatically scale like that. Some players' skill sets shine better when they are low target players.

 

I'll gladly eat crow if I'm wrong but I think Shakir is one of those players. I see people compare him to Beasley but I think they're almost total opposites. Shakir isn't nearly as sudden as Beasley was on his route breaks which means his success against man will always be limited. If you can't regularly beat man you can't be a high volume target, simple as that.

 

I still love Shakir in his current role though. Strong hands + great YAC is an extremely valuable complementary skillset.

Shakir was a multiple skill set. He’s capable of both the Gave and Beasley roles. Don’t know if he’s a #1 but don’t care. He’s going to catch 80-100 and surprise some people. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'm sorry I disagree on this. The reason he is slot only is because he is the bottom one percentile all time for NFL receivers in terms of arm length. It means he struggles to get off press and it means he struggles when fighting with DBs downfield. He also frankly just doesn't run routes well enough for the outside where you really need to be at your landmarks because your QB rarely has the luxury of throwing to you as a stopped target outside. It has been proven on the field too. His effectiveness drops significantly vs man and when line up outside. He is a slot receiver who you use against zone defenses between the hashes and trust his quick feet and elusiveness to get you yards after the catch. 

 

He didn't though. 

 

 

The other issue I have with Shakir outside is that there is no indication that he can track the ball well enough to threaten teams vertically.   He's fast enough but guys who track the ball well catch the ball 40 yards down the field with an ease that's  not much different than how they do it 15 yards down the field.  In limited opportunities he's been a ball dropper and I think I saw one time on his college tape where he actually caught a deep ball in stride.  He likes to stop his feet on longer throws.   I am certain if I can see that he knows it and maybe that's something he can improve but it's a weakness, IMO.

[SCBills]

17 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

It appears he is an all arounder type receiver, and a real good one at that, if he was the one to get the ball in that fake punt, there is good reason to think he would have converted for the first down, jmo

This is where I lean with him.  
 

Upgrade outside WR1 & WR2, put Samuel in the Slot and I think Shakir is a fantastic piece to rotate inside & outside in the Emmanuel Sanders/Gabe Davis role back when our Offense really started to take off. 

[Bruffalo]

I think Shakir is an elite roleplayer and the production he got is indicative of the coverage talent he faces. That's not a dig at Shakir, I think he's going to be a high end slot WR3 guy, someone like Tyler Boyd, although stylistically they're not really the same.

 

This is the same as Gabe Davis, who was promoted too far in the lineup.  You want these types of players as #3s, not 2s or 1. 

 

I'd love to be wrong though.   

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The other issue I have with Shakir outside is that there is no indication that he can track the ball well enough to threaten teams vertically.   He's fast enough but guys who track the ball well catch the ball 40 yards down the field with an ease that's  not much different than how they do it 15 yards down the field.  In limited opportunities he's been a ball dropper and I think I saw one time on his college tape where he actually caught a deep ball in stride.  He likes to stop his feet on longer throws.   I am certain if I can see that he knows it and maybe that's something he can improve but it's a weakness, IMO.

 

I think the feet stopping thing - and you are right that is a tendency of his - is also linked to the lack of precision in his route running. To me on longer developing plays he often finishes his route and then sort of stops to adjust to where the route should have finished rather than where it did. 

[BADOLBILZ]

I will add that there was A LOT of hype in general about the Shakir pick back in 2022.   Like I said, we had people on TSW go so far as drawing comps to Stef Diggs.   A lot was EXPECTED.   

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

Nice thread, guys.   Interesting discussion.  

 

I get Dawg's theory, but I'm not yet convinced that Shakir can be that guy.   He needs to take another step, and I'm not sure that's happening.   

 

I do think there's a a hidden benefit to Diggs' departure along the lines of what Dawg said, which is that the Bills no longer have a receiver who's demanding targets.  And he did demand targets.   It was quite obvious that the game plan always included early throws to Diggs, and I think those targets were intended to keep him happy, not necessarily to cause the defense to focus on him. 

 

My guess is that Shakir is an important piece in what we'll see from Brady's offense.   I think we're going to see receivers running slants, crossers, quick outs, the occasional wheel route out of the backfield, and wideouts going deep when the defense leave them in favorable matchups.   Shakir can do all of that.   Samuel can do all of that.   Kincaid more or less does all of that.   And I think there's likely to be a rookie out there doing the same things.   I think it's going to look like what the Lions and the 49ers did last season with a bunch of receivers who run good routes and who like having the ball in their hands.   The receptions will be spread around among a lot of guys.

 

Who's going to lead that group?   Well, the Bills have to replace the 1900 receiving yards that Diggs and Davis got last season.   Kincaid will get some, maybe 300.  The rookie will get 500 (unless the Bills make a major move and get one of the big three in the draft).   Shakir and Samuel both had 600 yards last season, and they will get most of the 1100 additional yards that need to be recovered.   My money would be on Samuel being the 2024 leading receiver at 1300, with Shakir second around 1000, but I could see it fall the other way.  

[HappyDays]

44 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

He’s capable of both the Gabe and Beasley roles.

 

Has he caught a single outside vertical route? I can't recall one.

[GoBills808]

26 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

I think Shakir is an elite roleplayer and the production he got is indicative of the coverage talent he faces. That's not a dig at Shakir, I think he's going to be a high end slot WR3 guy, someone like Tyler Boyd, although stylistically they're not really the same.

 

This is the same as Gabe Davis, who was promoted too far in the lineup.  You want these types of players as #3s, not 2s or 1. 

 

I'd love to be wrong though.   

You're not wrong

 

for some reason Bills fans lately keep wanting to go cheap offensively and promote/project guys into roles they aren't suited for

 

we saw it w Davis, Knox, and now Shakir I guess is next one up...who is a good player. but he's shouldn't be second option on a Super Bowl contender

[TheBrownBear]

Shakir, more than any Bills receiver in the last 24 years, reminds me of my childhood favorite, Andre Reed.  I think he's going to emerge as Josh's favorite WR target and have a huge year.  Assuming we find a solid X receiver via the draft who can grow into a contributor over the course of the season, I think our receiving room could actually go from a perceived weakness to a strength.

[Figster]

Just now, TheBrownBear said:

Shakir, more than any Bills receiver in the last 24 years, reminds me of my childhood favorite, Andre Reed.  I think he's going to emerge as Josh's favorite WR target and have a huge year.  Assuming we find a solid X receiver via the draft who can grow into a contributor over the course of the season, I think our receiving room could actually go from a perceived weakness to a strength.

I have also made the same comparison.

 

Short arms is Shakirs biggest weakness, and probably biggest difference from Andre Reed.

 

Something OP pointed out in another thread If I remember correctly...

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It was EXACTLY what we were discussing. You seem to recall me arguing McKenzie was a stud or something which was certainly never my position. It was that he was best placed to start in 2022 and would win the competition and start at slot (my original position was actually you'd see something of a jobshare with Crowder due to their differing skillsets but that McKenzie would take the lion share of the snaps because he separated better and Crowder would likely get hurt - that took about 3 games to come to pass). You were arguing not only that McKenzie shouldn't start, but that he wouldn't. He did. And we agreed at the time that career year was not a particularly high bar and that is why I set 500 yards as a target projection. He fell 77 yards short of that. That was the only extent within that conversation to which I was wrong. 

 

I never said he wouldn't start, he was already the starter at that time.  I said he was a gadget player who had no business starting and he wouldn't be anything more than what he had been.  Again, all good though, its not like we were grossly apart on it.  We don't often disagree like that, and it was just that this one disagreement stuck out for me given McKenzie wasn't all that interesting of a topic and we discussed it as much as we did.  We don't often disagree, it was more that.  So I guess it gave me more of an impression that you were higher on McKenzie than maybe you were.  Again, all good though man.