Calling it now: You're all about to witness the arrival of Shakir

[GASabresIUFan]

Hill lead the NFL in 20+ yard plays last season with 57.  He accomplished that on 119 receptions and 171 targets (1799 yards & 13 TDs).  That's about one explosive play for every 2 catches and one explosive play every 3 targets. 

 

Diggs had 19 on 160 targets.  

 

Shakir had 17 last season on 39 catches and 45 targets.  That's one explosive play on every 2.3 catches and amazingly it's one explosive play for every 2.7 targets.  

 

My guess is these numbers helped make Beane's decision to move on from Diggs a little easier.

[Dillenger4]

10 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Heading into the draft in 2022 I posted about keeping an eye on Shakir and the Bills.  I missed rounds 3 and 4 and came back to the draft right as we were announcing our pick in the 5th having no idea he was still on the board and was stunned when they called his name and thought I misheard it because I figured he would go in rounds 2 or 3.  I was thrilled when we called his name, maybe the most excited I have ever been about a pick that wasn't an early round choice, and I have been maybe his biggest cheerleader since getting here.  Ive got a pretty good track record on WR's around here, and he was one I felt from the get go was going to be different and develop into a great player for us.  

 

Ive posted threads and countless comments about him since we took him, and here is a quote back in early May after the draft showing an example of that belief in him early on and not just since his mini breakout this year.  

 

 

Now after reading that above from May of 2022...watch this highlight video and tell me that doesn't look spot on to how I described hm.  From how he plays as a WR, to how he has some Deebo and AJ Brown in him with the ball in his hands.

 

SHAKIR HIGHLIGHTS CLICK HERE (highly suggest you watch before commenting to at least see what I am referencing)

 

This man is an excellent route runner...has sure hands...runs a 4.43 forty...is shifty...excels with YAC and is tough when running...and he is a smart player.  Most importantly, he has the drive to be great and trains in the offseason with players like Moulds.  His biggest shortcoming is he doesn't have long arms which makes him less of a go up and get it WR, but we don't need him to be that when he is so good at everything else.

 

2023 Stats: 87% Catch Rate, 39 Rec on 45 Targets, 611 Yards (13.5 yards per TARGET - insane), 15.6 YPC, 2 TD's

 

Diggs had 160 targets in 2023 for 1183 yards.  Now I know Diggs is drawing the best of the defense a lot of the times, so its not an apples to apples comparison.  But just out of curiosity, what does Shakir's season look like on 160 targets based on his stats last year?  

 

Diggs:  160 Targets, 107 Rec, 1183 yards, 8 TD's

Shakir:  160 Targets, 139 Rec, 2160 yards, 7 TD's

 

Again, I know that is an unrealistic comparison given the level of defensive attention both got and how Shakir benefits from the extra attention Diggs takes.  BUT...that is a massively different level of efficiency and effectiveness.  And defenses STILL will have to contend with Shakir, what ever rookie we draft, Kincaid, Samuel, Knox, Cook as receiver and Allen running.  So Shakir still should see plenty of opportunities against the defenses moving forward.  

 

I mean, even if he just gets up to 100 targets, that is still a 1,350 yard season, and make no mistake about it, he very well could (and probably should) see 100 targets this year.  He is going to be the ONLY WR with any experience and rapport with Josh entering camp, he definitely caught Josh's attention and the teams last year and became a play making machine who they trust.  This team notoriously likes to ease Rookies in as much as they can, so doubtful any rookie is coming in commanding anywhere near Diggs target share.  

 

Dorsey was an idiot for not using him in 2022 when we needed help bad in the slot...he was a bigger fool for not getting him involved earlier in 2023.  In Joe Bradys first game, Shakir had his first career 100 yard game and would go on to end the season with another one.  Diggs had 0 games with 100 yards during that stretch.  

 

In the aftermath of the Diggs trade...the time is now.  I think you will see Shakir emerge as a legit WR and legit weapon for this team and not only will he break 1000 yards this year, he very well may lead the team in both receptions and yards.  And I think he is one of the reasons they felt confident to trade Diggs now rather than later.  

 

You heard it hear first...and have been hearing it here about him since before the 2022 draft.  

 

#WitnessTheArrival

Cool story bro. I mean, you and the the whole world can say this exact story. He is no secret. Just sayin..

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

He's the same height and faster than Diggs, FWIW

 

And had the best catch percentage of all WRs last season (iirc) while showing great RAC ability. But look at who you’re replying to 

[Royale with Cheese]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. If he had cleared his man coverage a split second sooner the Bills have a touchdown at the end against KC. But he got caught up just long enough by the DB in coverage and Josh had to hold the ball one tick too long and Jones got there. 

 

I'm not sure I totally agree on the difference between he and Beas. Beas wasn't great against man either. He was an elite zone beater not because of his suddenness but because of his natural feel for the soft spots in zone defences. In was instinctive. I think ultimately it is why he was an UDFA yet went on to have some success, because you can't measure the thing Cole Beasley had that was special. It was feel.

 

I think Shakir is more sudden but he doesn't run routes as well and doesn't have the same feel. Even last season there were multiple times when he ran into coverage where you really want your slot receiver to just stop and sit. That was a major problem his rookie year and it is why despite being on the field on a third of the Bills offensive snaps in 2022 he totalled just 20 targets. He did improve his route running a bit in year 2, and he is definitely a threat with the ball in his hands when actually the player he reminds me of isn't a receiver at all - it is Austin Ekeler - with that low centre of gravity and ability to twist and turn out of tackles and bounce out of contact.

 

Could he be a 1,000 yard receiver? I'm not sure for two reasons:

 

1. I still think the Bills will want to have a lot of 12 personnel packages where Kincaid essentially becomes their slot receiver. I don't think they are going to have that as the single base formation or anything like that, but they are going to want to use it some. In those packages Shakir either comes off the field or splits wide where he just isn't close to as effective for obvious reasons - alligator arms, route running, size.

 

2. I think Josh Allen is a downfield thrower. I don't know that he is every going to be Tom Brady who is happy to move down the field with running backs, tight ends and slot receivers. Partly because he doesn't throw those little option routes, screens and wheels with enough precision for YAC and partly because I think he can lose patience when you try and force him into that kind of game plan. So I'm not sure a shifty slot receiver like Shakir will get the level of targets he needs for a 1,000 yard season. 

 

He could probably do it once somewhere down the line.... Beas nearly did it for us in 2020. Lance Moore who was mentioned as another comparison somewhere in this thread did it once with Drew as well. But those true pure slot guys are rarely 1,000 yard guys on a regular basis. Edelman did it three times in six years with Brady but again I just don't think the Bills offense can or should be a replica of that New England offense. 

 

My realistic projection for Shakir in 2024 is something like, 80 targets, 60 catches, 820 yards, 4 TDs. 

 

I agree.  It's why I think Odunze makes the most sense and realistically could get with a nice package (that's what she said).

 

He looks like a slightly faster Gabe Davis and is considered a contestant catch monster.  I think the Bills would hugely benefit with a guy where it's a broken play and Allen scrambles to the right, just go long and Allen with throw it up.  

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. If he had cleared his man coverage a split second sooner the Bills have a touchdown at the end against KC. But he got caught up just long enough by the DB in coverage and Josh had to hold the ball one tick too long and Jones got there. 

 

I'm not sure I totally agree on the difference between he and Beas. Beas wasn't great against man either. He was an elite zone beater not because of his suddenness but because of his natural feel for the soft spots in zone defences. In was instinctive. I think ultimately it is why he was an UDFA yet went on to have some success, because you can't measure the thing Cole Beasley had that was special. It was feel.

 

I think Shakir is more sudden but he doesn't run routes as well and doesn't have the same feel. Even last season there were multiple times when he ran into coverage where you really want your slot receiver to just stop and sit. That was a major problem his rookie year and it is why despite being on the field on a third of the Bills offensive snaps in 2022 he totalled just 20 targets. He did improve his route running a bit in year 2, and he is definitely a threat with the ball in his hands when actually the player he reminds me of isn't a receiver at all - it is Austin Ekeler - with that low centre of gravity and ability to twist and turn out of tackles and bounce out of contact.

 

Could he be a 1,000 yard receiver? I'm not sure for two reasons:

 

1. I still think the Bills will want to have a lot of 12 personnel packages where Kincaid essentially becomes their slot receiver. I don't think they are going to have that as the single base formation or anything like that, but they are going to want to use it some. In those packages Shakir either comes off the field or splits wide where he just isn't close to as effective for obvious reasons - alligator arms, route running, size.

 

2. I think Josh Allen is a downfield thrower. I don't know that he is every going to be Tom Brady who is happy to move down the field with running backs, tight ends and slot receivers. Partly because he doesn't throw those little option routes, screens and wheels with enough precision for YAC and partly because I think he can lose patience when you try and force him into that kind of game plan. So I'm not sure a shifty slot receiver like Shakir will get the level of targets he needs for a 1,000 yard season. 

 

He could probably do it once somewhere down the line.... Beas nearly did it for us in 2020. Lance Moore who was mentioned as another comparison somewhere in this thread did it once with Drew as well. But those true pure slot guys are rarely 1,000 yard guys on a regular basis. Edelman did it three times in six years with Brady but again I just don't think the Bills offense can or should be a replica of that New England offense. 

 

My realistic projection for Shakir in 2024 is something like, 80 targets, 60 catches, 820 yards, 4 TDs. 

 

He is more than a slot WR.  Same size, speed and build as a lot of great WR1's both now and historically.  This notion he is only a slot WR isn't accurate, he can play inside and out.  Cole was only a slot WR for example...Lance Moore was only a slot WR.  These are not the same players as Shakir nor the same skill sets.  

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I agree.  It's why I think Odunze makes the most sense and realistically could get with a nice package (that's what she said).

 

He looks like a slightly faster Gabe Davis and is considered a contestant catch monster.  I think the Bills would hugely benefit with a guy where it's a broken play and Allen scrambles to the right, just go long and Allen with throw it up.  

 

Okay. I'm off to google "Rome Odunze's package." Will report back. 

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

How does he get off press or deal with physical cover corners though? He has the speed you need to go deep, he doesn't have any of the other attributes you need. 

 

Why do you think he doesn't have those when he showed plenty of times he can do that last year alone and did it in college?  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Okay. I'm off to google "Rome Odunze's package." Will report back. 

 

Now do Teddy Bridgewater 😄

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Okay. I'm off to google "Rome Odunze's package." Will report back. 

 

If it's "too nice" then you have to wonder how that doesn't slow him down.  

If he was Asian, he would run a 4.2 

Edited April 5 by Royale with Cheese

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

I'm calling it now... Shakir is mid and will be a decent 3rd WR option. Nothing about his game stands out. He's small, not fast, hasn't shown great yac ability, has had a number of drops, gets small during contested plays (doesn't box out or gain body position). He's a 5th round receiver playing as good as a 3rd round receiver. Nothing too exciting here

 

So what you are saying is know nothing about Shakir then.  Got it.  

 

He isn't small, he is the same size or bigger as a number of great WR1's including Diggs.  

He isn't slow, he is faster than Diggs and has a 4.43 forty which is faster than a lot of the WR's people want us to draft in round 1.  

Not good at YAC?  Are you serious?  Lol, he has been EXCELLENT at YAC and averaged over 15.6 yards per catch because of it.  

Drops?  He had the highest catch rate in the league for a WR and had 0 drops.

 

So yeah...another one of those "I know nothing but gonna respond with nonsense anyway just based on my uninformed opinion posts".  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

He is more than a slot WR.  Same size, speed and build as a lot of great WR1's both now and historically.  This notion he is only a slot WR isn't accurate, he can play inside and out.  Cole was only a slot WR for example...Lance Moore was only a slot WR.  These are not the same players as Shakir nor the same skill sets.  

 

I'm sorry I disagree on this. The reason he is slot only is because he is the bottom one percentile all time for NFL receivers in terms of arm length. It means he struggles to get off press and it means he struggles when fighting with DBs downfield. He also frankly just doesn't run routes well enough for the outside where you really need to be at your landmarks because your QB rarely has the luxury of throwing to you as a stopped target outside. It has been proven on the field too. His effectiveness drops significantly vs man and when line up outside. He is a slot receiver who you use against zone defenses between the hashes and trust his quick feet and elusiveness to get you yards after the catch. 

8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Why do you think he doesn't have those when he showed plenty of times he can do that last year alone and did it in college?  

 

He didn't though. 

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'm sorry I disagree on this. The reason he is slot only is because he is the bottom one percentile all time for NFL receivers in terms of arm length. It means he struggles to get off press and it means he struggles when fighting with DBs downfield. He also frankly just doesn't run routes well enough for the outside where you really need to be at your landmarks because your QB rarely has the luxury of throwing to you as a stopped target outside. It has been proven on the field too. His effectiveness drops significantly vs man and when line up outside. He is a slot receiver who you use against zone defenses between the hashes and trust his quick feet and elusiveness to get you yards after the catch. 

 

He didn't though. 

 

No disrespect Gunner, but you also heavily disagreed and defended McKenzie to me when I said all offseason and training camp he was not good enough to be a starter for this team and wouldn't do a whole lot more than he has done before.  And I even said the team knows it which is why they drafted Shakir and signed Crowder after bringing McKenzie back on that 2 year deal.  

 

And this is another example where I think you are off again on the WR analysis here.  Shakir is more than a slot only guy, he is a totally different player than Cole who was only capable of playing in the slot.  And Shakir showed that last year already where he moved inside and out in this offense and wasn't just strictly a slot.  

 

But I do agree he will probably eat the most from the slot, but he isn't restricted there like someone like Cole was.  And more importantly, Allen loves utilizing his slot WR, so he can be highly productive out of the slot for this team and at a higher degree then Cole because he can attack the seems and deep posts with his speed from the slot rather than just more those short area move the chain zones where Cole made his bread and butter.  

[GETTOTHE50]

he’s better than Jerry rice imo

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No disrespect Gunner, but you also heavily disagreed and defended McKenzie to me when I said all offseason and training camp he was not good enough to be a starter for this team and wouldn't do a whole lot more than he has done before.  And I even said the team knows it which is why they drafted Shakir and signed Crowder after bringing McKenzie back on that 2 year deal.  

 

And this is another example where I think you are off again on the WR analysis here.  Shakir is more than a slot only guy, he is a totally different player than Cole who was only capable of playing in the slot.  And Shakir showed that last year already where he moved inside and out in this offense and wasn't just strictly a slot.  

 

But I do agree he will probably eat the most from the slot, but he isn't restricted there like someone like Cole was.  And more importantly, Allen loves utilizing his slot WR, so he can be highly productive out of the slot for this team and at a higher degree then Cole because he can attack the seems and deep posts with his speed from the slot rather than just more those short area move the chain zones where Cole made his bread and butter.  

 

Hang on, what I actually said was they had drafted Shakir to be their long term slot but he wouldn't start in 2022 until at best late in the year because he came from a gimmicky offense where he didn't really run proper routes at Boise and as such McKenzie was the best and most likely starting option they had for that year. Which far from being wrong is EXACTLY what happened. And I did say he'd do more than he did before. I think I said 500 yards, he had 400 and odd, so I was I dunno 80 yards or so high on my projection for him. 

 

Shakir is a slot only guy. He can take a snaps outside for you, he can get you out of a game there if you need him to, but if you are going to put him out there as one of your primary boundary players for a game it isn't going to go well. He doesn't have the physical skillset or route running ability to do it. And the tape when he did do it last year is very uninspiring. I like Khalil Shakir a lot. But he is a slot receiver. 

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Hang on, what I actually said was they had drafted Shakir to be their long term slot but he wouldn't start in 2022 until at best late in the year because he came from a gimmicky offense where he didn't really run proper routes at Boise and as such McKenzie was the best and most likely starting option they had for that year. Which far from being wrong is EXACTLY what happened. And I did say he'd do more than he did before. I think I said 500 yards, he had 400 and odd, so I was I dunno 80 yards or so high on my projection for him. 

 

Shakir is a slot only guy. He can take a snaps outside for you, he can get you out of a game there if you need him to, but if you are going to put him out there as one of your primary boundary players for a game it isn't going to go well. He doesn't have the physical skillset or route running ability to do it. And the tape when he did do it last year is very uninspiring. I like Khalil Shakir a lot. But he is a slot receiver. 

 

Sorry Gunner, and again, no disrespect, but you disagreed with me a lot about McKenzie specifically.  I wasn't saying you disagreed with Shakir back then as I know you liked the Shakir pick in the draft, and I know you agreed and felt he was the future of the position, as a lot of us did.  But what I am talking about is my specific criticism of McKenzie.  I repeatedly stated he is not a starter, that he won't give us much more than we had already seen from him.  These are the things you kept disagreeing with on, specifically on McKenzie and his ability to contribute as a starter that season and what we would get from him that year.  

 

And I was exactly right about everything I said about McKenzie that whole offseason that so many disagreed about.  He was so bad the team desperately signed back Cole to get McKenzie off the field with Crowder out and Dorsey not interested in getting Shakir on the field as a rookie.  

 

To be clear here on Shakir, I have not claimed Shakir can be a primary boundary player.  What I have said is he is not a slot only guy, he can move inside and out, and already has for us last year alone.  Even in my OP I said his biggest short coming is his shorter arms.  And also, people pigeon hole "slot" WR's as if they are short area players only.  Shakir can attack all the levels of the defense out of the slot and has the skills to do that.  So even when lined up in the slot doesn't mean he is restricted to stereotype of what people think of when they think of a "slot" WR.  Most people just picture the Cole Beasley role, but that is such a lazy and poor comparison for his style and skill set.  

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I agree.  It's why I think Odunze makes the most sense and realistically could get with a nice package (that's what she said).

 

He looks like a slightly faster Gabe Davis and is considered a contestant catch monster.  I think the Bills would hugely benefit with a guy where it's a broken play and Allen scrambles to the right, just go long and Allen with throw it up.  

 

Odunze is my favorite WR for this team of the top 3 to be honest and the one I hope falls to a range where we might go up and get him.  He is the kind of WR that can be dominant in good or bad weather, something we need.  His ability to go get the ball is best in class.  I would be ecstatic if we ended up with him in this draft, but just don't want to pay QB level trade compensation to do so as that is crazy to do in a draft this good at WR.  

 

I think if Odunze can get into the mid to late teens he gets into realistic trade up territory where I can see Beane sending 28 and next years first for him, which is more palatable now that we got an extra second next year.  But some of these trade ideas others have of sending like 5 picks to go up to top 10 to get him is insane.  If it costs more than our first next year, its too much in a draft this good for WR's

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Sorry Gunner, and again, no disrespect, but you disagreed with me a lot about McKenzie specifically.  I wasn't saying you disagreed with Shakir back then as I know you liked the Shakir pick in the draft, and I know you agreed and felt he was the future of the position, as a lot of us did.  But what I am talking about is my specific criticism of McKenzie.  I repeatedly stated he is not a starter, that he won't give us much more than we had already seen from him.  These are the things you kept disagreeing with on, specifically on McKenzie and his ability to contribute as a starter that season and what we would get from him that year.  

 

And I was exactly right about everything I said about McKenzie that whole offseason that so many disagreed about.  He was so bad the team desperately signed back Cole to get McKenzie off the field with Crowder out and Dorsey not interested in getting Shakir on the field as a rookie.  

 

To be clear here on Shakir, I have not claimed Shakir can be a primary boundary player.  What I have said is he is not a slot only guy, he can move inside and out, and already has for us last year alone.  Even in my OP I said his biggest short coming is his shorter arms.  And also, people pigeon hole "slot" WR's as if they are short area players only.  Shakir can attack all the levels of the defense out of the slot and has the skills to do that.  So even when lined up in the slot doesn't mean he is restricted to stereotype of what people think of when they think of a "slot" WR.  Most people just picture the Cole Beasley role, but that is such a lazy and poor comparison for his style and skill set.  

 

Hang on, I was wrong about McKenzie to the tune of about 80 yards. My argument was not "he is a stud" or "the Bills long term answer at slot" my argument on McKenzie in the summer of 2022 was simply he was the best option on the roster to start in 2022 and he would be the starting slot. Both proven correct. And that he would post career high numbers, also correct. And that he would have 500 yards receiving. Not correct, he had 423. So if you want to argue I was 77 yards off on my projection, fine. But on everything else what I said is exactly what happened. 

 

As for the tired "Dorsey didn't get Shakir on the field as a rookie" - that's not true. He played 30% of the offensive snaps. Not bad for a 5th round rookie. He inly got 20 targets because he was not getting open and the reason he was not getting open was he didn't run proper routes at Boise, came from a gimmicky scheme and the learning curve to playing in a pro-style offense was significant. 

 

To be clear I have never said Khalil Shakir is Cole Beasley mark II. He is a different player than Beas. I said that already. It is like Stefon Diggs and Mike Evans are both outside receivers but are nothing alike in terms of skillset. But the numbers and the tape are pretty clear is significantly less effective when split wide. The route running is still improving and I don't discount the chance it improves further. But the physical limitations that hurt him on the outside are ones he can't change. 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Dillenger4 said:

Cool story bro. I mean, you and the the whole world can say this exact story. He is no secret. Just sayin..

 

Then maybe you haven't read this thread where most either are unsure about him or disagree he can be more than a role player.  

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Hang on, I was wrong about McKenzie to the tune of about 80 yards. My argument was not "he is a stud" or "the Bills long term answer at slot" my argument on McKenzie in the summer of 2022 was simply he was the best option on the roster to start in 2022 and he would be the starting slot. Both proven correct. And that he would post career high numbers, also correct. And that he would have 500 yards receiving. Not correct, he had 423. So if you want to argue I was 77 yards off on my projection, fine. But on everything else what I said is exactly what happened. 

 

As for the tired "Dorsey didn't get Shakir on the field as a rookie" - that's not true. He played 30% of the offensive snaps. Not bad for a 5th round rookie. He inly got 20 targets because he was not getting open and the reason he was not getting open was he didn't run proper routes at Boise, came from a gimmicky scheme and the learning curve to playing in a pro-style offense was significant. 

 

To be clear I have never said Khalil Shakir is Cole Beasley mark II. He is a different player than Beas. I said that already. It is like Stefon Diggs and Mike Evans are both outside receivers but are nothing alike in terms of skillset. But the numbers and the tape are pretty clear is significantly less effective when split wide. The route running is still improving and I don't discount the chance it improves further. But the physical limitations that hurt him on the outside are ones he can't change. 

 

 

 

All I remember is whenever I said McKenzie is not a starter you would disagree and say he is going to have a career year.  Which is pretty easy to say when his previous career year is the equivalent of just 30 targets.  All good though, we are on the same page on many topics, that one always stuck out with me as one you were oddly always disagreeing with me a lot on.  

 

I wasn't saying you compared Shakir to Cole, was referencing that comparison that has been said a lot in general.  I don't have a significant issue with your stance on Shakir, its not overly negative by any means.  Where I disagree is that he is solely this traditional "slot" guy only, even though I agree he will eat the most from the slot.  Even in my post in May of 2022 I said I felt he had the potential to be the best slot WR in the NFL.  And the reason I said that is because he can be very dangerous out of the slot attacking all 3 phases of the field.  

[muppy]

what I have seen from Shakir is he has great hands.  An attribute a WR cannot have enough of. 

 

It is a pressure packed moment but when push comes to shove CATCH THE DANGED BALL. In those clutch crucial times.

 

Basically any time  #17 throws it to you. Just CATCH IT

 

That's what we want. That's what we expect. And that my friends is the bottom line.

 

Shakir I pray you help bring we fans of thee Buffalo Bills NFL glory. AMEN!