Calling it now: You're all about to witness the arrival of Shakir

[BeastMaster]

I don't see Cooper Kupp at all when watching Shakir FWIW

 

Shakir is his own player, and he will do well in whatever role it is that the Bills have for him this upcoming season

 

 

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's not a 1:1 comparison but this was the pro-Gabe Davis narrative after 2020. As we found out, yards per target doesn't automatically scale like that. Some players' skill sets shine better when they are low target players.

 

I'll gladly eat crow if I'm wrong but I think Shakir is one of those players. I see people compare him to Beasley but I think they're almost total opposites. Shakir isn't nearly as sudden as Beasley was on his route breaks which means his success against man will always be limited. If you can't regularly beat man you can't be a high volume target, simple as that.

 

I still love Shakir in his current role though. Strong hands + great YAC is an extremely valuable complementary skillset.

 

Yep. If he had cleared his man coverage a split second sooner the Bills have a touchdown at the end against KC. But he got caught up just long enough by the DB in coverage and Josh had to hold the ball one tick too long and Jones got there. 

 

I'm not sure I totally agree on the difference between he and Beas. Beas wasn't great against man either. He was an elite zone beater not because of his suddenness but because of his natural feel for the soft spots in zone defences. In was instinctive. I think ultimately it is why he was an UDFA yet went on to have some success, because you can't measure the thing Cole Beasley had that was special. It was feel.

 

I think Shakir is more sudden but he doesn't run routes as well and doesn't have the same feel. Even last season there were multiple times when he ran into coverage where you really want your slot receiver to just stop and sit. That was a major problem his rookie year and it is why despite being on the field on a third of the Bills offensive snaps in 2022 he totalled just 20 targets. He did improve his route running a bit in year 2, and he is definitely a threat with the ball in his hands when actually the player he reminds me of isn't a receiver at all - it is Austin Ekeler - with that low centre of gravity and ability to twist and turn out of tackles and bounce out of contact.

 

Could he be a 1,000 yard receiver? I'm not sure for two reasons:

 

1. I still think the Bills will want to have a lot of 12 personnel packages where Kincaid essentially becomes their slot receiver. I don't think they are going to have that as the single base formation or anything like that, but they are going to want to use it some. In those packages Shakir either comes off the field or splits wide where he just isn't close to as effective for obvious reasons - alligator arms, route running, size.

 

2. I think Josh Allen is a downfield thrower. I don't know that he is every going to be Tom Brady who is happy to move down the field with running backs, tight ends and slot receivers. Partly because he doesn't throw those little option routes, screens and wheels with enough precision for YAC and partly because I think he can lose patience when you try and force him into that kind of game plan. So I'm not sure a shifty slot receiver like Shakir will get the level of targets he needs for a 1,000 yard season. 

 

He could probably do it once somewhere down the line.... Beas nearly did it for us in 2020. Lance Moore who was mentioned as another comparison somewhere in this thread did it once with Drew as well. But those true pure slot guys are rarely 1,000 yard guys on a regular basis. Edelman did it three times in six years with Brady but again I just don't think the Bills offense can or should be a replica of that New England offense. 

 

My realistic projection for Shakir in 2024 is something like, 80 targets, 60 catches, 820 yards, 4 TDs. 

[Commish]

Brett Whitefield was on with Joe Marino yesterday - said he had Shakir as the 5th best receiver of his class back in '22.

[nucci]

Hear me out

[nosejob]

I think Shakir has plenty of speed and ability for deep slants, posts and go routes. IMO, he's much more than solely a slot receiver.

 

BTW, I think catch percentage will be a major factor when it comes to drafting now.....at least I hope so.

[K D]

I'm calling it now... Shakir is mid and will be a decent 3rd WR option. Nothing about his game stands out. He's small, not fast, hasn't shown great yac ability, has had a number of drops, gets small during contested plays (doesn't box out or gain body position). He's a 5th round receiver playing as good as a 3rd round receiver. Nothing too exciting here

[GunnerBill]

Just now, nosejob said:

I think Shakir has plenty of speed and ability for deep slants, posts and go routes. IMO, he's much more than solely a slot receiver.

 

BTW, I think catch percentage will be a major factor when it comes to drafting now.....at least I hope so.

 

How does he get off press or deal with physical cover corners though? He has the speed you need to go deep, he doesn't have any of the other attributes you need. 

[OldTimer1960]

35 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. If he had cleared his man coverage a split second sooner the Bills have a touchdown at the end against KC. But he got caught up just long enough by the DB in coverage and Josh had to hold the ball one tick too long and Jones got there. 

 

I'm not sure I totally agree on the difference between he and Beas. Beas wasn't great against man either. He was an elite zone beater not because of his suddenness but because of his natural feel for the soft spots in zone defences. In was instinctive. I think ultimately it is why he was an UDFA yet went on to have some success, because you can't measure the thing Cole Beasley had that was special. It was feel.

 

I think Shakir is more sudden but he doesn't run routes as well and doesn't have the same feel. Even last season there were multiple times when he ran into coverage where you really want your slot receiver to just stop and sit. That was a major problem his rookie year and it is why despite being on the field on a third of the Bills offensive snaps in 2022 he totalled just 20 targets. He did improve his route running a bit in year 2, and he is definitely a threat with the ball in his hands when actually the player he reminds me of isn't a receiver at all - it is Austin Ekeler - with that low centre of gravity and ability to twist and turn out of tackles and bounce out of contact.

 

Could he be a 1,000 yard receiver? I'm not sure for two reasons:

 

1. I still think the Bills will want to have a lot of 12 personnel packages where Kincaid essentially becomes their slot receiver. I don't think they are going to have that as the single base formation or anything like that, but they are going to want to use it some. In those packages Shakir either comes off the field or splits wide where he just isn't close to as effective for obvious reasons - alligator arms, route running, size.

 

2. I think Josh Allen is a downfield thrower. I don't know that he is every going to be Tom Brady who is happy to move down the field with running backs, tight ends and slot receivers. Partly because he doesn't throw those little option routes, screens and wheels with enough precision for YAC and partly because I think he can lose patience when you try and force him into that kind of game plan. So I'm not sure a shifty slot receiver like Shakir will get the level of targets he needs for a 1,000 yard season. 

 

He could probably do it once somewhere down the line.... Beas nearly did it for us in 2020. Lance Moore who was mentioned as another comparison somewhere in this thread did it once with Drew as well. But those true pure slot guys are rarely 1,000 yard guys on a regular basis. Edelman did it three times in six years with Brady but again I just don't think the Bills offense can or should be a replica of that New England offense. 

 

My realistic projection for Shakir in 2024 is something like, 80 targets, 60 catches, 820 yards, 4 TDs. 

And I think that production would be fine if it comes to fruition.  They now need at least 1 starting WR, maybe 2, but for sure an X boundary guy, but I don't think Shakir will be carrying the offense - he is a complementary piece.

[BuffaloBillyG]

44 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. If he had cleared his man coverage a split second sooner the Bills have a touchdown at the end against KC. But he got caught up just long enough by the DB in coverage and Josh had to hold the ball one tick too long and Jones got there. 

 

I'm not sure I totally agree on the difference between he and Beas. Beas wasn't great against man either. He was an elite zone beater not because of his suddenness but because of his natural feel for the soft spots in zone defences. In was instinctive. I think ultimately it is why he was an UDFA yet went on to have some success, because you can't measure the thing Cole Beasley had that was special. It was feel.

 

I think Shakir is more sudden but he doesn't run routes as well and doesn't have the same feel. Even last season there were multiple times when he ran into coverage where you really want your slot receiver to just stop and sit. That was a major problem his rookie year and it is why despite being on the field on a third of the Bills offensive snaps in 2022 he totalled just 20 targets. He did improve his route running a bit in year 2, and he is definitely a threat with the ball in his hands when actually the player he reminds me of isn't a receiver at all - it is Austin Ekeler - with that low centre of gravity and ability to twist and turn out of tackles and bounce out of contact.

 

Could he be a 1,000 yard receiver? I'm not sure for two reasons:

 

1. I still think the Bills will want to have a lot of 12 personnel packages where Kincaid essentially becomes their slot receiver. I don't think they are going to have that as the single base formation or anything like that, but they are going to want to use it some. In those packages Shakir either comes off the field or splits wide where he just isn't close to as effective for obvious reasons - alligator arms, route running, size.

 

2. I think Josh Allen is a downfield thrower. I don't know that he is every going to be Tom Brady who is happy to move down the field with running backs, tight ends and slot receivers. Partly because he doesn't throw those little option routes, screens and wheels with enough precision for YAC and partly because I think he can lose patience when you try and force him into that kind of game plan. So I'm not sure a shifty slot receiver like Shakir will get the level of targets he needs for a 1,000 yard season. 

 

He could probably do it once somewhere down the line.... Beas nearly did it for us in 2020. Lance Moore who was mentioned as another comparison somewhere in this thread did it once with Drew as well. But those true pure slot guys are rarely 1,000 yard guys on a regular basis. Edelman did it three times in six years with Brady but again I just don't think the Bills offense can or should be a replica of that New England offense. 

 

My realistic projection for Shakir in 2024 is something like, 80 targets, 60 catches, 820 yards, 4 TDs. 

Very nice breakdown of Shakir here. I think tempering expectations are a smart idea. We saw what getting too riled up about potential can lead to with Gabe Davis. 

 

On the other hand, while your projection is fair and realistic..I would be more than happy with that statline and production from a former 5th round investment. Add in that I could also see him getting a look at the KR job this year. With the new rules I think he has exactly the right skillset to be good in that spot.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, BuffaloBillyG said:

Very nice breakdown of Shakir here. I think tempering expectations are a smart idea. We saw what getting too riled up about potential can lead to with Gabe Davis. 

 

On the other hand, while your projection is fair and realistic..I would be more than happy with that statline and production from a former 5th round investment. Add in that I could also see him getting a look at the KR job this year. With the new rules I think he has exactly the right skillset to be good in that spot.

 

Yea I'm not down on Shakir at all. I had a late 3rd on him coming out and was happy with the pick. I think he is a good complimentary receiver and that is great value from a 5th rounder. Even if we just got two more seasons like 2023 in terms of production and then he walked in FA that would be a decent return, but I think the ceiling can be higher than that... without him being quite in 1,000 yard guy territory. 

[RiotAct]

 careful, I made the same kind of thread last September about Kaiir Elam after Tre went down with the ACL

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

24 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

I'm calling it now... Shakir is mid and will be a decent 3rd WR option. Nothing about his game stands out. He's small, not fast, hasn't shown great yac ability, has had a number of drops, gets small during contested plays (doesn't box out or gain body position). He's a 5th round receiver playing as good as a 3rd round receiver. Nothing too exciting here

 

He's the same height and faster than Diggs, FWIW

 

[TheBeaneBandit]

12 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

He's the same height and faster than Diggs, FWIW

 

With T Rex arms though.

38 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

I'm calling it now... Shakir is mid and will be a decent 3rd WR option. Nothing about his game stands out. He's small, not fast, hasn't shown great yac ability, has had a number of drops, gets small during contested plays (doesn't box out or gain body position). He's a 5th round receiver playing as good as a 3rd round receiver. Nothing too exciting here

This right here. You double or triple his targets, his catch % that all you number crunching nerds are getting all crazy about will plummet back to an average number. He is a nice piece to have in group sure, but he's a #3 that can fill in as a #2 in stretches.

[Big Turk]

#1 WR in yards/target with 50+ targets? Brandon Aiyuk.

 

#1 WR in yards/target with 40+ targets? Khalil Shakir.

 

His rookie season he led the NFL in being open against man coverage.

 

I think Shakir is going to have a huge season as well...

 

Over the last 10 games he had 535 yards receiving. If all he did was have that pace for 17 games, he would have over 900 yards...IMHO, I think he can be a 1000 yard receiver next year.

[sunshynman]

I said before his small break out last year that he was a stud. People are going to love him and he will get a lot of national attention soon. His ceiling is higher than most people think.

[SoCal Deek]

For whatever reason I’ve always seen him to be similar to Andre Reed. He has that same over the middle YAC thing going for him. 

[corta765]

Tupac is coming back?!?!?

[zevo]

this isa great post and I feel the same. I think he is going to have a big year. he was clutch at the end of the season

[zow2]

Nice analysis by the OP, but it's not a great take to say Shakir will arrive.  A lot of us have been super high on Shakir since that first training camp and feel he was underutilized from the beginning.  He arrived this past season.  He will continue to ascend this season.

[babulator]

Shakir reminds me of a smaller Robert Woods, that's a pretty solid comparison and good company to keep. I also expect Samuel to have a very good season as well. I'm excited to see how brady uses him. I see him having success on broken plays too, where he's coming back to Josh and getting some nice YAC plays.