Calling it now: You're all about to witness the arrival of Shakir

[EasternOHBillsFan]

Haven't seen a great WR like Shakir since Dre and that's not hyperbole... now at long last our WR corps being on the same page makes him deadly.

[TheBrownBear]

1 hour ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

Haven't seen a great WR like Shakir since Dre and that's not hyperbole... now at long last our WR corps being on the same page makes him deadly.

I've been saying it for a good year.  Tough.  Great hands.  Good route runner.  Not afraid to go over the middle.  And he's great with the YAC.  Reminds me of someone.

[Saxum]

1 hour ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

Haven't seen a great WR like Shakir since Dre and that's not hyperbole... now at long last our WR corps being on the same page makes him deadly.

 

4 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

I've been saying it for a good year.  Tough.  Great hands.  Good route runner.  Not afraid to go over the middle.  And he's great with the YAC.  Reminds me of someone.

 

The issue is there are no other players available like him and hard to spot them in the draft.  If you lose a #1 WR you can draft (like Vikings) or trade (like Bills did) but hard to find that complementary dangerous receiver.   Opposing teams need to keep a good CB on him even if he lining up in the middle and most teams do not allocate funds for a Taron Johnson.

[Alphadawg7]

16 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

@Alphadawg7

 

What kind of contract do you foresee for Shakir? Would you anticipate something this offseason?

 

Personally I’d like to let him play out his rookie deal and see what happens with Coleman and the next rookie we take next off season….

 

That said, he’ll be way more expensive if production continues. I’m not sure where his value would lie across the league, and more importantly, to Beane.

 

I think it comes down to how the rest of the season plays out.  Shakir has missed out on about 2 games of football this season between sitting one out and then weeks 2 and 3 the blowouts basically took away both 2nd halves.  Yet he is 21st in the NFL in receiving yards and on pace for just over a 1000.  Had the offense been running its normal offense those 2 games in the 2nd half and he had not missed a game, he would be on pace for 1100-1200 yards most likely. 

 

This team runs a lot, carries an "everyone eats" spread the ball around mentality, we just acquired Cooper, and Keon is coming into his own...make it really hard to project what any player is going to do rest of season or week to week.  If I had to guess I think he still finishes where I originally projected him, which is 900-1100 yards.  

 

I do think they will extend this offseason, and I think it will be a priority for Beane.  Shakir seems to love being here and the team loves him.  So, I think Beane will look to do it this year where both sides can agree on a fair deal that maybe has a little home town discount compared to waiting a year and testing the open market.  And for Shakir, waiting a year also is risky while playing on a rookie deal, I mean a major injury like Diggs just got could change everything for him.  

 

I can see something like $17-18M per for 3 years or something like that.  Now...if he keeps having games like he did last week and gets to or surpasses 1200 yards, that number is going to get up to and probably above $20M/per.

[machine gun kelly]

2 hours ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

Haven't seen a great WR like Shakir since Dre and that's not hyperbole... now at long last our WR corps being on the same page makes him deadly.

Yep.  Josh finally has what he needs for success.

 

1. Cooper will keep learning the offense and synergy with Josh.
2. Coleman is developing into a deep threat with over 20 yards per catch regardless of talking heads stating he slow.
3. Shakir is a stud slot WR.
4. DK2 will get the job done with Kinkaid as the primary.
5. We now have a legitimate duo running and short passing threat in Cook and Davis.  Ty is also a great depth for us as RB’s always seemed to get dinged up more than many positions.
6. Our O line in advanced stats has us probably the 3rd best line in the league, and certainly helps that Josh evades better than any QB in the league.

I couldn’t find the movie clip on YouTube so will just plagiarize from the remake of Midway when thinking of the Fish.

 

”WE’RE GONNA GIVE THEM A SCHLACKIN”.  (Great movie if you haven’t seen it and makes you proud to be an American- It was the greatest naval victory in the history of the US)

[Dukestreetking]

Very quick math on KS last 17 games played (bearing in mind context @Alphadawg7 provided above):

 

67c/76t: 88% catch rate; 923yd @ 13.8yd/rec; 5td.

 

Did not look at advanced stats, most importantly success rate, but I suspect they're... acceptable.

 

Yeah, I'm biased, as he's my current favorite Bill.

 

But, bottom line: not too bad for a 5th and as a ~WR2 (w addition of Coop/formerly Stef)...and trending up.

[Bray Wyatt]

He is like an even better Beasley, and now that we found a young version of that, I think we should extend him and keep him here. Josh's safety valve

[TheWei44]

I understand the comparisons to Beasley, but I think Shakir is much, much better - Beasley was great with clutch catches, finding soft spots in the zone, moving the chains, tough as nails (especially for his size), but offered very little YAC IIRC.  Shakir shares some of those valuable traits, but he is so much more explosive/dangerous after he catches the ball.  

Edited 23 hours ago by TheWei44

[folz]

21 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

What do you mean, scratch the surface?  Is he ever going to lead the league in reception yards - like 1500 yards?  He might have a year like that, but he's not going to be a top 5 star.  He's not going to be as good as Diggs was. 

 

He's a third year receiver, who has only been starting since about mid-season last year. It's safe to assume that he still has room to grow. Experience is a real thing in the NFL.

 

And I don't think anyone is talking about him being the best WR in the league. They are talking about him becoming a top-receiver in the league. I think it comes down to how you define a top receiver. You are defining it as top 3-5 with 1,500 yards and 10 TDs. I think others have a broader view of top. With 32 teams, I'd say if you are in the top 15-16 WRs, I would consider you a top receiver in the league. Now is Khalil capable of that? Last year, George Pickens was 16th in yards with 1,104 yards and 5 TDs.

 

Since Khalil has been starting (when his snap count went up last year), he has 957 yards and 4 TDs. That is over a 17-game stretch (basically one season). His first 17 games as a starter. And his snap count and targets are up significantly this year. Add in experience, and could we see maybe 1,200 yards and 7 TDs? I think so. Looking at 2023 receiving yards stats, that would put him in the range of Chase, Diggs, K. Allen, and Cooper. I think Khalil is definitely capable of 1,100-1,200 yards and 5-7 TDs. Might not make it this year, but the talent is there.

 

Now, of course, Khalil will never look like Jefferson, Chase, Brown, Lamb, etc. because you're not going to throw him jump balls, or certain other passes because of the size difference, etc. He's a different kind of player. Those guys are true X/boundary receivers, while Khalil will make more of his money over the middle of the field. But does it matter how you make your yards? Are Andre Reed or Tyreek Hill or Wes Welker not top receivers because a lot of their yards came over the middle of the field and/or with YAC?

 

And let's face it. His catch percentage is amazing...would be even if every single target was a screen pass, which obviously they are not.

[Shaw66]

27 minutes ago, folz said:

 

He's a third year receiver, who has only been starting since about mid-season last year. It's safe to assume that he still has room to grow. Experience is a real thing in the NFL.

 

And I don't think anyone is talking about him being the best WR in the league. They are talking about him becoming a top-receiver in the league. I think it comes down to how you define a top receiver. You are defining it as top 3-5 with 1,500 yards and 10 TDs. I think others have a broader view of top. With 32 teams, I'd say if you are in the top 15-16 WRs, I would consider you a top receiver in the league. Now is Khalil capable of that? Last year, George Pickens was 16th in yards with 1,104 yards and 5 TDs.

 

Since Khalil has been starting (when his snap count went up last year), he has 957 yards and 4 TDs. That is over a 17-game stretch (basically one season). His first 17 games as a starter. And his snap count and targets are up significantly this year. Add in experience, and could we see maybe 1,200 yards and 7 TDs? I think so. Looking at 2023 receiving yards stats, that would put him in the range of Chase, Diggs, K. Allen, and Cooper. I think Khalil is definitely capable of 1,100-1,200 yards and 5-7 TDs. Might not make it this year, but the talent is there.

 

Now, of course, Khalil will never look like Jefferson, Chase, Brown, Lamb, etc. because you're not going to throw him jump balls, or certain other passes because of the size difference, etc. He's a different kind of player. Those guys are true X/boundary receivers, while Khalil will make more of his money over the middle of the field. But does it matter how you make your yards? Are Andre Reed or Tyreek Hill or Wes Welker not top receivers because a lot of their yards came over the middle of the field and/or with YAC?

 

And let's face it. His catch percentage is amazing...would be even if every single target was a screen pass, which obviously they are not.

Good stuff.  I hear you. 

 

I'd say Kahlil will go over 1000 yards three times in his career, if he plays 10 year.  He isn't a 1000-yard guy; he's a guy who, when things fall right, will get 1000 yards.  

 

When the defenses evolve to slow down all this short-yardage passing, I think Kahlil will have trouble getting targets. 

[Allen2Moulds]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Good stuff.  I hear you. 

 

I'd say Kahlil will go over 1000 yards three times in his career, if he plays 10 year.  He isn't a 1000-yard guy; he's a guy who, when things fall right, will get 1000 yards.  

 

When the defenses evolve to slow down all this short-yardage passing, I think Kahlil will have trouble getting targets. 

I think we have to view him the context that he's a slot WR. Even at his peak, Beasley never eclipsed 1000yds, if Shakir does, that's an outstanding season, and one can easily argue he's among the elite, as far as slot guys go.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I think it comes down to how the rest of the season plays out.  Shakir has missed out on about 2 games of football this season between sitting one out and then weeks 2 and 3 the blowouts basically took away both 2nd halves.  Yet he is 21st in the NFL in receiving yards and on pace for just over a 1000.  Had the offense been running its normal offense those 2 games in the 2nd half and he had not missed a game, he would be on pace for 1100-1200 yards most likely. 

 

This team runs a lot, carries an "everyone eats" spread the ball around mentality, we just acquired Cooper, and Keon is coming into his own...make it really hard to project what any player is going to do rest of season or week to week.  If I had to guess I think he still finishes where I originally projected him, which is 900-1100 yards.  

 

I do think they will extend this offseason, and I think it will be a priority for Beane.  Shakir seems to love being here and the team loves him.  So, I think Beane will look to do it this year where both sides can agree on a fair deal that maybe has a little home town discount compared to waiting a year and testing the open market.  And for Shakir, waiting a year also is risky while playing on a rookie deal, I mean a major injury like Diggs just got could change everything for him.  

 

I can see something like $17-18M per for 3 years or something like that.  Now...if he keeps having games like he did last week and gets to or surpasses 1200 yards, that number is going to get up to and probably above $20M/per.

 

 

I like that you are laying it out there on what you think the contract would look like.   But if he is more than just a Christian Kirk level slot.......then settling for what Kirk got 3 years later is a huge sacrifice.   I mean the cap will have increased by $50M in that time and that figure might be up to $70M by the time Shakir's contract is set to expire AFTER the 2025 season.  And if he produces more like 1200 yards that number is certainly closer to $30M value in 2025 than $20M.    This is why I see a potential Gabe Davis like standoff.   Shakir might be settling for 60 cents on the dollar signing early.   In the deals they got done with Knox and Spencer Brown I don't think either were asked to sacrifice nearly that much potential.

[Virgil]

On 4/4/2024 at 11:07 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

Heading into the draft in 2022 I posted about keeping an eye on Shakir and the Bills.  I missed rounds 3 and 4 and came back to the draft right as we were announcing our pick in the 5th having no idea he was still on the board and was stunned when they called his name and thought I misheard it because I figured he would go in rounds 2 or 3.  I was thrilled when we called his name, maybe the most excited I have ever been about a pick that wasn't an early round choice, and I have been maybe his biggest cheerleader since getting here.  Ive got a pretty good track record on WR's around here, and he was one I felt from the get go was going to be different and develop into a great player for us.  

 

Ive posted threads and countless comments about him since we took him, and here is a quote back in early May after the draft showing an example of that belief in him early on and not just since his mini breakout this year.  

 

 

Now after reading that above from May of 2022...watch this highlight video and tell me that doesn't look spot on to how I described hm.  From how he plays as a WR, to how he has some Deebo and AJ Brown in him with the ball in his hands.

 

SHAKIR HIGHLIGHTS CLICK HERE (highly suggest you watch before commenting to at least see what I am referencing)

 

This man is an excellent route runner...has sure hands...runs a 4.43 forty...is shifty...excels with YAC and is tough when running...and he is a smart player.  Most importantly, he has the drive to be great and trains in the offseason with players like Moulds.  His biggest shortcoming is he doesn't have long arms which makes him less of a go up and get it WR, but we don't need him to be that when he is so good at everything else.

 

2023 Stats: 87% Catch Rate, 39 Rec on 45 Targets, 611 Yards (13.5 yards per TARGET - insane), 15.6 YPC, 2 TD's

 

Diggs had 160 targets in 2023 for 1183 yards.  Now I know Diggs is drawing the best of the defense a lot of the times, so its not an apples to apples comparison.  But just out of curiosity, what does Shakir's season look like on 160 targets based on his stats last year?  

 

Diggs:  160 Targets, 107 Rec, 1183 yards, 8 TD's

Shakir:  160 Targets, 139 Rec, 2160 yards, 7 TD's

 

Again, I know that is an unrealistic comparison given the level of defensive attention both got and how Shakir benefits from the extra attention Diggs takes.  BUT...that is a massively different level of efficiency and effectiveness.  And defenses STILL will have to contend with Shakir, what ever rookie we draft, Kincaid, Samuel, Knox, Cook as receiver and Allen running.  So Shakir still should see plenty of opportunities against the defenses moving forward.  

 

I mean, even if he just gets up to 100 targets, that is still a 1,350 yard season, and make no mistake about it, he very well could (and probably should) see 100 targets this year.  He is going to be the ONLY WR with any experience and rapport with Josh entering camp, he definitely caught Josh's attention and the teams last year and became a play making machine who they trust.  This team notoriously likes to ease Rookies in as much as they can, so doubtful any rookie is coming in commanding anywhere near Diggs target share.  

 

Dorsey was an idiot for not using him in 2022 when we needed help bad in the slot...he was a bigger fool for not getting him involved earlier in 2023.  In Joe Bradys first game, Shakir had his first career 100 yard game and would go on to end the season with another one.  Diggs had 0 games with 100 yards during that stretch.  

 

In the aftermath of the Diggs trade...the time is now.  I think you will see Shakir emerge as a legit WR and legit weapon for this team and not only will he break 1000 yards this year, he very well may lead the team in both receptions and yards.  And I think he is one of the reasons they felt confident to trade Diggs now rather than later.  

 

You heard it hear first...and have been hearing it here about him since before the 2022 draft.  

 

#WitnessTheArrival

 

How does it feel to be so wrong?  You should consider deleting your account and changing teams to root for.  And it's public for everyone to see...Ouch

 

 

😜

[EasternOHBillsFan]

18 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

I've been saying it for a good year.  Tough.  Great hands.  Good route runner.  Not afraid to go over the middle.  And he's great with the YAC.  Reminds me of someone.

 

Dre is my favorite Bill of all time, and I think in the case of Dre and Shakir game recognizes game  

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/news/buffalo-bills-offense-andre-reed-amari-cooper

[EasternOHBillsFan]

17 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

Yep.  Josh finally has what he needs for success.

 

I couldn’t find the movie clip on YouTube so will just plagiarize from the remake of Midway when thinking of the Fish.

 

”WE’RE GONNA GIVE THEM A SCHLACKIN”.  (Great movie if you haven’t seen it and makes you proud to be an American- It was the greatest naval victory in the history of the US)

 

Without the Battle of the Coral Sea, Midway could have been different, but we agree!

 

It's a great analogy, because I was a Chief in the Navy and my division (electronics and comm technicians) and I always had the "Man in the Arena" speech from Theodore Roosevelt up for everyone to see. It's a team environment that gets really close once the missions start and everything must be on point. Nothing ever goes as planned but if you put the best people in charge of the pieces it's all you can do. 

 

Personally I love Tora! Tora! Tora! because it presents the mindset and actions of both friend and foe... you honestly learn more from failure than success. 

[Buffalo Junction]

19 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Good stuff.  I hear you. 

 

I'd say Kahlil will go over 1000 yards three times in his career, if he plays 10 year.  He isn't a 1000-yard guy; he's a guy who, when things fall right, will get 1000 yards.  

 

When the defenses evolve to slow down all this short-yardage passing, I think Kahlil will have trouble getting targets. 

The ability of defenses to slow down the underneath stuff is going to be dependent upon Coleman’s development and Cooper’s ability to integrate into the offense. Keon has already shown the ability to break a tackle and turn a hitch into a splash play, and he’s shown he’s capable of getting open deep on scramble drills. The whole league knows Cooper can get open deep, so he’d have to prove otherwise. 
 

That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Shakir start putting up career production that’s somewhere between K Allen and R Cobb if he stays relatively healthy. In other words… a guy that consistently sniffs a thousand yards, has the ability to have monster games, and goes over 1,000 yards 3-5 times. Shakir’s yac ability and catch percentage make him a serious problem for defenses. 

[Shaw66]

16 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

The ability of defenses to slow down the underneath stuff is going to be dependent upon Coleman’s development and Cooper’s ability to integrate into the offense. Keon has already shown the ability to break a tackle and turn a hitch into a splash play, and he’s shown he’s capable of getting open deep on scramble drills. The whole league knows Cooper can get open deep, so he’d have to prove otherwise. 
 

That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Shakir start putting up career production that’s somewhere between K Allen and R Cobb if he stays relatively healthy. In other words… a guy that consistently sniffs a thousand yards, has the ability to have monster games, and goes over 1,000 yards 3-5 times. Shakir’s yac ability and catch percentage make him a serious problem for defenses. 

Maybe Shakir could be an Allen or a Cobb.  I'd say that's his upside. Those guys were consistent and valuable contributors to their teams. 

 

But your point about Coleman and Cooper having to produce to keep the underneath stuff open is exactly my point. Really good players, like Diggs, create opportunities for themselves. Shakir isn't one of those - Shakir needs his team to create opportunities for him.  He can be really valuable when his team does that for him, but the rest of the time he's just another guy. Good player, but just another guy. 

 

Might he continue to develop?  Yes, he could, but I don't expect him to get a lot better. Why? Because he is a smart, dedicated player and hard worker, that's the edge that got him to the NFL in the first place.  We're seeing the results of his brains and dedication already, and I don't think there's a lot of upside left to see. 

 

I'm rooting for him, but I think we're seeing about the best of Shakir now. 

[machine gun kelly]

4 hours ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

Without the Battle of the Coral Sea, Midway could have been different, but we agree!

 

It's a great analogy, because I was a Chief in the Navy and my division (electronics and comm technicians) and I always had the "Man in the Arena" speech from Theodore Roosevelt up for everyone to see. It's a team environment that gets really close once the missions start and everything must be on point. Nothing ever goes as planned but if you put the best people in charge of the pieces it's all you can do. 

 

Personally I love Tora! Tora! Tora! because it presents the mindset and actions of both friend and foe... you honestly learn more from failure than success. 

EOH, thanks for your service.  I’ve not had that honor, but all of my uncles and Dad were in during Korea and Vietnam.

[Joe Ferguson]

The way Shakir plays he is bound to get injured again. His high anke sprain is not going to heal and will play hurt the rest of the season.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Joe Ferguson said:

The way Shakir plays he is bound to get injured again. His high anke sprain is not going to heal and will play hurt the rest of the season.

The way you post, you’re bound to get lots of eye rolls