Calling it now: You're all about to witness the arrival of Shakir

[Alphadawg7]

39 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Sorry, Dawg, I don't buy all this Shakir love.

 

He's a nice solid player, but relying on stats like his catch percentage and his YAC to prove he's great is misguided. His catch rate and his YAC are high because he's a punt returner/ball carrier, not a true wideout.  

 

Why is his catch rate high? Because the Bills run a lot of plays for him designed to get him the ball around the line of scrimmage with running room. He's an extended part of the running game. So, throws to him are easy, because he's supposed to be open to take what is an extended handoff.  

 

His YAC is high for the same reason. The Bills want him to get the ball in space, because he has unique ball carrying skills, with excellent change of pace and direction.  

 

That's what makes his numbers high.  

 

He isn't creating his numbers by running the routes that Diggs or Coleman or Kincaid or Cooper or any of the other true receivers run.  He's not catching sideline balls, he's not catch back-shoulder balls, he's not catching deep balls.  

 

He's excellent in this offense, and he's a real weapon, but when defenses begin to focus on playing him tight off the line of scrimmage, I think he will struggle. 

 

I think he's always going to be a complementary receiver. He's never going to be a high-priced free agent. 

 

All good

 

But I do respectfully disagree with this.  I think if you even just watch his season highlights so far this year and from last year you will see he is more capable and doing more than you are giving him credit for here.

 

And if you listen to any current or former players/coaches/GM's talk about Shakir, they all gush about just how good he is too.  

[Royale with Cheese]

54 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Sorry, Dawg, I don't buy all this Shakir love.

 

He's a nice solid player, but relying on stats like his catch percentage and his YAC to prove he's great is misguided. His catch rate and his YAC are high because he's a punt returner/ball carrier, not a true wideout.  

 

Why is his catch rate high? Because the Bills run a lot of plays for him designed to get him the ball around the line of scrimmage with running room. He's an extended part of the running game. So, throws to him are easy, because he's supposed to be open to take what is an extended handoff.  

 

His YAC is high for the same reason. The Bills want him to get the ball in space, because he has unique ball carrying skills, with excellent change of pace and direction.  

 

That's what makes his numbers high.  

 

He isn't creating his numbers by running the routes that Diggs or Coleman or Kincaid or Cooper or any of the other true receivers run.  He's not catching sideline balls, he's not catch back-shoulder balls, he's not catching deep balls.  

 

He's excellent in this offense, and he's a real weapon, but when defenses begin to focus on playing him tight off the line of scrimmage, I think he will struggle. 

 

I think he's always going to be a complementary receiver. He's never going to be a high-priced free agent. 

 

He is a similar player as Wes Welker and Julian Edelman.  

Edelman had a career catch percentage of 65.9% and Welker was 70.8....with Brady throwing to him.  Shakir is currently at 82.5%....94.7% this year.

 

Not to mention is short area burst is much, much better than Edelman and Welker.  He's the definition of making guys miss in a phone booth.

The one slot WR who gets mentioned as the best is St. Brown on the Lions and he's at 74%.  And has a lower Y/R by 3 yards.

[ColoradoBills]

59 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think he's always going to be a complementary receiver. He's never going to be a high-priced free agent.

 

Spotrac already has his "Market Value" up to $18.3M per for 4 years, $73M total.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/market-value/_/id/77025/khalil-shakir

[buffaloboyinATL]

Sorry, I just got here, did I miss it?  

 

This arrival is so anticipated, I feel like Linus awaiting the arrival of The Great Pumpkin.  

 

[eball]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I think he's always going to be a complementary receiver. He's never going to be a high-priced free agent. 

 

IMHO you think incorrectly.  If you can get open and catch the ball in this league you are valuable.  Shakir is only starting to scratch the surface.

 

[Long Suffering Fan]

17 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

He is a similar player as Wes Welker and Julian Edelman.  

Edelman had a career catch percentage of 65.9% and Welker was 70.8....with Brady throwing to him.  Shakir is currently at 82.5%....94.7% this year.

 

Not to mention is short area burst is much, much better than Edelman and Welker.  He's the definition of making guys miss in a phone booth.

The one slot WR who gets mentioned as the best is St. Brown on the Lions and he's at 74%.  And has a lower Y/R by 3 yards.

 

4 minutes ago, eball said:

IMHO you think incorrectly.  If you can get open and catch the ball in this league you are valuable.  Shakir is only starting to scratch the surface.

 

Shaw has a good point in that stats can be deceiving and manufactured by situation, but I am with Royale and eball for two reasons:

 

1.  His stats are stupid high.  The comparison to Edelman and Welker's stats reveal that.  Some of his stats might be manufactured by usage, but it is hard to explain all of it considering how high they are.

 

2.  He passes the eye test.  Who doesn't like watching him with the ball?  He is exciting in a way that few Bills receivers ever have been.

[Nineforty]

1 hour ago, Maine-iac said:

No he's not playing the WR position like Diggs or Coleman or Cooper but I think your wrong about Kincaid.  He is running those routes just like Beasley did here or many other slot WR's on many other teams.  Yes this year his catches have come mostly around the line of scrimmage but he already had proven he can catch last year when he averaged almost 16 yards per catch.  He certainly wasn't catching everything at the line of scrimmage last year.  He has become a very productive slot WR and should be considered with the likes of Flowers or Reed who are good WR's.

 

Chris Long just called him Beasley on steroids haha ~3 min mark

 

 

Edited October 31 by Nineforty

[Alphadawg7]

16 minutes ago, Nineforty said:

 

Chris Long just called him Beasley on steroids haha ~3 min mark

 

 

 

Hahaha Chris Long with the opening up with the epic name Gaff on "Cook" 

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Maine-iac said:

 Yes this year his catches have come mostly around the line of scrimmage but he already had proven he can catch last year when he averaged almost 16 yards per catch.  He certainly wasn't catching everything at the line of scrimmage last year.  

Yes, he had more yards per catch last year, but he was way, way under 1000 yards.  He wasn't a feature receiver.  This season he's being used differently. 

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

All good

 

But I do respectfully disagree with this.  I think if you even just watch his season highlights so far this year and from last year you will see he is more capable and doing more than you are giving him credit for here.

 

And if you listen to any current or former players/coaches/GM's talk about Shakir, they all gush about just how good he is too.  

Yes, he's doing more, and yes everyone is happy with him.  I'm just saying he's no star.  He's a guy who has skills and a scheme that allow him to take advantage of defensive schemes designed to stop deep balls.  

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes, he had more yards per catch last year, but he was way, way under 1000 yards.  He wasn't a feature receiver.  This season he's being used differently. 

 

That is because he didn't really get his chance to play until Dorsey was fired.  He had 611 yards on just 45 targets.  If he had just doubled his targets that would only still be 90 targets and it would have put him over 1200 yards.  For reference both Davis and Kincaid had around 90 targets too last year each, neither got close to 1000 yards let alone 1200 yards.

 

[Shaw66]

54 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

He is a similar player as Wes Welker and Julian Edelman.  

 

Yes to Edelman.  Edelman played maybe 10 years, had three years over 100 yards. 

 

No to Welker.  Welker was a major threat, a guy went well over 100 yards five times. 

 

Those guys were the same style, size, yes.  

43 minutes ago, eball said:

 

IMHO you think incorrectly.  If you can get open and catch the ball in this league you are valuable.  Shakir is only starting to scratch the surface.

 

What do you mean, scratch the surface?  Is he ever going to lead the league in reception yards - like 1500 yards?  He might have a year like that, but he's not going to be a top 5 star.  He's not going to be as good as Diggs was.  He's playing in a scheme designed to get him the ball, and against defenses that give up the short pass in order to stop the deep ball.  

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

That is because he didn't really get his chance to play until Dorsey was fired.  He had 611 yards on just 45 targets.  If he had just doubled his targets that would only still be 90 targets and it would have put him over 1200 yards.  For reference both Davis and Kincaid had around 90 targets too last year each, neither got close to 1000 yards let alone 1200 yards.

 

So Davis and Kincaid are stars now?  They're ordinary NFL receivers.  Nice to have, but not stars. 

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

So Davis and Kincaid are stars now?  They're ordinary NFL receivers.  Nice to have, but not stars. 

 

I didn't say they were stars, I showed the opposite by showing just how substantially more effective Shakir was with his targets last year and how good he really is.  

[finn]

19 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

That is because he didn't really get his chance to play until Dorsey was fired.  He had 611 yards on just 45 targets.  If he had just doubled his targets that would only still be 90 targets and it would have put him over 1200 yards.  For reference both Davis and Kincaid had around 90 targets too last year each, neither got close to 1000 yards let alone 1200 yards.

 

I still shake my head when I hear Davis' name. Not his fault, but what a waste of targets. 

[BearNorth]

Since he wasn't a first rounder, next year is Shakir's contract year, and he's an extreme bargain - currently $1.1MM cap hit.

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

58 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes to Edelman.  Edelman played maybe 10 years, had three years over 100 yards. 

 

No to Welker.  Welker was a major threat, a guy went well over 100 yards five times. 

 

Those guys were the same style, size, yes.  

I was mostly referring to the types of routes they would run.  Mostly the short routes.  These top guys are in the 60%-70% area…Shakir is above that.  That’s impressive.  

[notpolian]

I don't care what kind of routes he is targeted on.  His catch percentage is amazing this year.  He can also elude defenders and tries hard consistently.  It's gonna be tough to re-sign him and the others (Benford, Groot) given the current cap situation.  

 

Can we just give him Knox's money to begin with and go from there?  😉

[SydneyBillsFan]

Was never in doubt.

 

Brains, work ethic, team first, sticky hands, tough at the point of contact.

 

A top calibre slot receiver. We got really lucky here. Hope he retires a Bill.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

@Alphadawg7

 

What kind of contract do you foresee for Shakir? Would you anticipate something this offseason?

 

Personally I’d like to let him play out his rookie deal and see what happens with Coleman and the next rookie we take next off season….

 

That said, he’ll be way more expensive if production continues. I’m not sure where his value would lie across the league, and more importantly, to Beane.

[Saxum]

7 minutes ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

Was never in doubt.

 

Brains, work ethic, team first, sticky hands, tough at the point of contact.

 

A top calibre slot receiver. We got really lucky here. Hope he retires a Bill.

 

Don't forget one of best Bills wide receivers as a mentor.

[SydneyBillsFan]

5 minutes ago, Saxum said:

 

Don't forget one of best Bills wide receivers as a mentor.

 

That's a big part of it, for sure.

 

Even if Eric looks more like a DT than a WR these days....