Calling it now: You're all about to witness the arrival of Shakir

[BADOLBILZ]

On 4/4/2024 at 11:07 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

I mean, even if he just gets up to 100 targets, that is still a 1,350 yard season

 

I presume Shakir will lead the Bills in receiving yards.......I know people love Kincaid for that but an untested, elevated WR1 is generally the better bet than an unproven TE1..........but 13.5 yards per target on 100 targets?

 

 C'mon now.

 

It was one thing doing that in limited exposure last year..........defense's aren't just going to let him roll up 80 yards per game and leave nickel and dime defenders on him.    That would be a pretty crazy season if he did that with so little else around him.    Aiyuk had a similar ypt last year but that was with Deebo, Kittle and McCaffrey also commanding attention.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

There does seem to be something special with Shakir. The dude just knows how to YAC. I'm having a hard time figuring who his past or present comp would be in the league. 

[JerseyBills]

I love Shakir and feel he was a huge reason they let Diggs go after his emergence under Brady, he's going to have a monster season 

21 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

There does seem to be something special with Shakir. The dude just knows how to YAC. I'm having a hard time figuring who his past or present comp would be in the league. 

Cooper Kupp? 

[BADOLBILZ]

15 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 I'm having a hard time figuring who his past or present comp would be in the league. 

 

 

Well, he was basically the 4th receiving target to the opposition most of last season.   As with Gabe Davis in 2022......what he is capable of will be much clearer this year with the larger sample size and doing it as the #1 or #2 focus of the opposing pass defense.

 

Shakir had 3 excellent games out of 17 last regular season.   He averaged 104 yards in those games.   His next 5 best dropped off precipitously to just 44.6 average.   Then basically 9 games of nothing.   Sample size is just too small to project into the role he is going into as WR1 for the 2nd best QB in the NFL.

 

I doubt his incredible small-sample production drops off like it did for Robert Foster after he averaged a ridiculous 20 yards per catch in 2018.    But we've also seen other WR's have great limited role seasons like Davis and Chris Burkett(who lead the NFL with 22.9 yards per reception on 34 grabs in 1986.......and then needed 56 catches to get almost the same bulk production in 1987).     

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I presume Shakir will lead the Bills in receiving yards.......I know people love Kincaid for that but an untested, elevated WR1 is generally the better bet than an unproven TE1..........but 13.5 yards per target on 100 targets?

 

 C'mon now.

 

It was one thing doing that in limited exposure last year..........defense's aren't just going to let him roll up 80 yards per game and leave nickel and dime defenders on him.    That would be a pretty crazy season if he did that with so little else around him.    Aiyuk had a similar ypt last year but that was with Deebo, Kittle and McCaffrey also commanding attention.

Yeah but I’ve never once stated he will repeat his YPT efficiency, I was highlighting just how efficient he was last year.  It’s common sense with more volume it will come down some.  

I do think he will lead the team in yards receiving while also competing with Kincaid for most receptions.

 

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Well, he was basically the 4th receiving target to the opposition most of last season.   As with Gabe Davis in 2022......what he is capable of will be much clearer this year with the larger sample size and doing it as the #1 or #2 focus of the opposing pass defense.

 

Shakir had 3 excellent games out of 17 last regular season.   He averaged 104 yards in those games.   His next 5 best dropped off precipitously to just 44.6 average.   Then basically 9 games of nothing.   Sample size is just too small to project into the role he is going into as WR1 for the 2nd best QB in the NFL.

 

I doubt his incredible small-sample production drops off like it did for Robert Foster after he averaged a ridiculous 20 yards per catch in 2018.    But we've also seen other WR's have great limited role seasons like Davis and Chris Burkett(who lead the NFL with 22.9 yards per reception on 34 grabs in 1986.......and then needed 56 catches to get almost the same bulk production in 1987).     

The guy is talking about past and present comps-  and you bring up Gabe Davis and Chris Burkett.  As if that is the kind of comp he’s looking for.  Shakir is nothing like either of those guys- but…..stats, 4th option, one year wonders.  Any chance to take a dump 

 

@Sammy Watkins' Rib

It’s tough to find good comparisons for Shakir due to his squatty dimensions (long torso, short legs, short arms).  I think you have to look at attributes.  He has great footwork and body control, very good hands, feel for the zone and RAC ability.  
 

one WR that comes to mind is a stronger and quicker version of Doug Baldwin.  Not a super athlete but plenty athletic.  Not super fast, but plenty fast enough.  Hands, separation, smarts. 
 

Looking at current WRs, while he’s not as good, another guy I liken him to is Amon-Ra St Brown.  St Brown lite.  Similar dimensions- Squatty, strong, best in the slot, good rac, separation and hands.  
 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Yeah but I’ve never once stated he will repeat his YPT efficiency, I was highlighting just how efficient he was last year.  It’s common sense with more volume it will come down some.  

I do think he will lead the team in yards receiving while also competing with Kincaid for most receptions.

 

 

Yeah I think at one point you said between 800-1200 yards, correct?

 

Which is a huge range in wide receiver production.

 

That's the difference between 2023 Jamar Chase.....who may become the highest paid WR in the NFL soon...........or 2023 Jayden Reed/Jakoby Myers who were 50 yard per game guys.   

 

Which isn't being very specific, IMO. 

 

If he turns out to be Reed or Myers that's a pretty sizable jump from being a 600 yard bulk guy.....but certainly not star level jump.   I think he will get to 900+ but it will take a lot of targets and could come down to whether they feel compelled to take him off the field for Coleman to try to get their raw 1st round pick some lighter lifting slot work.   

[BADOLBILZ]

8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

The guy is talking about past and present comps-  and you bring up Gabe Davis and Chris Burkett.  As if that is the kind of comp he’s looking for.  Shakir is nothing like either of those guys- but…..stats, 4th option, one year wonders.  Any chance to take a dump 

 

@Sammy Watkins' Rib

It’s tough to find good comparisons for Shakir due to his squatty dimensions (long torso, short legs, short arms).  I think you have to look at attributes.  He has great footwork and body control, very good hands, feel for the zone and RAC ability.  
 

one WR that comes to mind is a stronger and quicker version of Doug Baldwin.  Not a super athlete but plenty athletic.  Not super fast, but plenty fast enough.  Hands, separation, smarts. 
 

Looking at current WRs, while he’s not as good, another guy I liken him to is Amon-Ra St Brown.  St Brown lite.  Similar dimensions- Squatty, strong, best in the slot, good rac, separation and hands.  
 

 

 

 

Incorrect.    A lot of comps have already been made for Shakir.   From Beasley to Kupp.   Foster, Davis and Burkett were true outside receivers.  The point, obviously, being that Shakir had a crazy productive season on a very limited amount of targets.    Foster had 44 targets in 2018 and Shakir had 45 in 2023.   As we've learned periodically over the years, incredibly WR efficiency over a paltry amount of targets usually hasn't scaled up.     

[Saxum]

15 minutes ago, NewEra said:

 

Looking at current WRs, while he’s not as good, another guy I liken him to is Amon-Ra St Brown.  St Brown lite.  Similar dimensions- Squatty, strong, best in the slot, good rac, separation and hands.  

 

 

He reminds me of Sr Brown - a receiver who is a lot more dangerous than he looks.

[NewEra]

12 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Incorrect.    A lot of comps have already been made for Shakir.   From Beasley to Kupp.   Foster, Davis and Burkett were true outside receivers.  The point, obviously, being that Shakir had a crazy productive season on a very limited amount of targets.    Foster had 44 targets in 2018 and Shakir had 45 in 2023.   As we've learned periodically over the years, incredibly WR efficiency over a paltry amount of targets usually hasn't scaled up.     

Lol-  incorrect.  You’re too funny.  
 

I’m not looking for comps online, yet trying to make my own comp.  
 

I don’t see Beasley as a comp other than arms and slot play.  Beasley is much smaller, weaker and worse rac. Shakir is a threat with the ball in his hand and it’s one of his strong points.  If someone is a comp yo him, rac ability has to be a strong point for them as well imo. 
 

Kupp, I can get on board with considering route running, size and hands.  
 

yes I know, Gabe, foster and Burkett were true outside guys-  which is just one of the reasons they don’t belong in a reply to the post you quoted….. other than if you’re just looking for a way to dump on Shakir.  He wasn’t looking for a statistical/production/career comparison….. yet thats what you gave him.  No mention of Kupp or Beasley because those would be positive
 

 

Edited September 1 by NewEra

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

50 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Incorrect.    A lot of comps have already been made for Shakir.   From Beasley to Kupp.   Foster, Davis and Burkett were true outside receivers.  The point, obviously, being that Shakir had a crazy productive season on a very limited amount of targets.    Foster had 44 targets in 2018 and Shakir had 45 in 2023.   As we've learned periodically over the years, incredibly WR efficiency over a paltry amount of targets usually hasn't scaled up.     

 

@NewEra is correct. I was looking for comps in term of playing style. Not production or target volume. 

Edited September 1 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yeah I think at one point you said between 800-1200 yards, correct?

 

No, once again totally incorrect like every other time you have quoted me on this.  This one is even more perplexing because we have literally discussed this exact range misquote maybe 2 dozen times, including in direct messaging.  

 

I have repeatedly told you 900-1100 yards was my range but you always like to exaggerate it incorrectly.

 

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Which is a huge range in wide receiver production.

 

Agreed, except that wasn't my range.

 

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

That's the difference between 2023 Jamar Chase.....who may become the highest paid WR in the NFL soon...........or 2023 Jayden Reed/Jakoby Myers who were 50 yard per game guys.   

 

Which isn't being very specific, IMO. 

 

Which again, was not my range, that is your incorrect recollection.

 

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

If he turns out to be Reed or Myers that's a pretty sizable jump from being a 600 yard bulk guy.....but certainly not star level jump.   I think he will get to 900+ but it will take a lot of targets and could come down to whether they feel compelled to take him off the field for Coleman to try to get their raw 1st round pick some lighter lifting slot work.   

 

Where he ends up will come down to just how much they stick to "everybody eats" this season.  Now can he get to 1200+ Yards?  Sure, I think he could if he ends up commanding say 110-120+ targets.  But I do still think Kincaid is getting over 100 targets for sure, and also that Keon will get a healthy share of targets as well as Samuel and the RB's combined.  So that is why my prediction was 900-1100 yards even though I sit here currently very confident he breaks 1000 yards.

 

 

Edited September 1 by Alphadawg7

[Buffalo Junction]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Incorrect.    A lot of comps have already been made for Shakir.   From Beasley to Kupp.   Foster, Davis and Burkett were true outside receivers.  The point, obviously, being that Shakir had a crazy productive season on a very limited amount of targets.    Foster had 44 targets in 2018 and Shakir had 45 in 2023.   As we've learned periodically over the years, incredibly WR efficiency over a paltry amount of targets usually hasn't scaled up.     

It’s be better to be hopeful for a Randall Cobb type of outcome…. Where the efficiency drops a bit, but the overall production increases dramatically while being able to occasionally work as an outside receiver when needed. If Shakir turns into an annual 60-70 catch, 700-900 yard receiver I’d certainly be happier than a pig in slop, especially if Kincaid can improve and Coleman turns into something. 

[Shaw66]

23 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Where he ends up will come down to just how much they stick to "everybody eats" this season.  Now can he get to 1200+ Yards?  Sure, I think he could if he ends up commanding say 110-120+ targets.  But I do still think Kincaid is getting over 100 targets for sure, and also that Keon will get a healthy share of targets as well as Samuel and the RB's combined.  So that is why my prediction was 900-1100 yards even though I sit here currently very confident he breaks 1000 yards.

 

 

I haven't read much of anything in this thread, including this debate you're having with Bado.  I just want to comment about whether he can get 1200 yards.  I think he certainly can.  And I think that analyzing in terms of targets is a little off-base.  I think the actual number of targets a guy gets over the course of the season is subject to a lot of different things.  It might be something teams might plan for, but they aren't goals.  The number of targets a guy gets is dependent on game plan, on how the QB executes the plays, etc., etc.  The truth is that some guys will outperform in number of targets, and some will underperform.  

 

So, that question is, what does an overperforming Shakir look like.  And I think it's pretty easy to see.  The Shakir highlights are kind of eye-opening.   He's an extraordinary little-route runner, and he's an extraordinary open-field runner.   Especially with a good supporting cast, which he has in Samuel and Kincaid, he really could have a breakout year.   

[Alphadawg7]

18 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I haven't read much of anything in this thread, including this debate you're having with Bado.  I just want to comment about whether he can get 1200 yards.  I think he certainly can.  And I think that analyzing in terms of targets is a little off-base.  I think the actual number of targets a guy gets over the course of the season is subject to a lot of different things.  It might be something teams might plan for, but they aren't goals.  The number of targets a guy gets is dependent on game plan, on how the QB executes the plays, etc., etc.  The truth is that some guys will outperform in number of targets, and some will underperform.  

 

So, that question is, what does an overperforming Shakir look like.  And I think it's pretty easy to see.  The Shakir highlights are kind of eye-opening.   He's an extraordinary little-route runner, and he's an extraordinary open-field runner.   Especially with a good supporting cast, which he has in Samuel and Kincaid, he really could have a breakout year.   

I don’t disagree with any of this, but yardage is a direct math equation where targets is a key component of said equation.  So all I was saying is if he does get into that 110-120 target range or higher 1200* yards becomes a realistic yardage total.  
 

But, what you said I agree with is exactly what comes into play on determining where that target total lands this year.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

@NewEra is correct. I was looking for comps in term of playing style. Not production or target volume. 

 

 

And like I said he hasn't really been utilized enough to EXPECT to have a reasonable comp yet.........but also if he becomes a star WR with those 29" T-Rex arms he will be the first of his kind.     

[Allen2Coleman]

10 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

There does seem to be something special with Shakir. The dude just knows how to YAC. I'm having a hard time figuring who his past or present comp would be in the league. 

He seems to find open spots in the defense going to be interesting this year to see him get even more involved and if he can keep improving this year.

[GoBills808]

Kupp is significantly bigger and more polished than Shakir

 

That's a bad comp

[ToGoGo]

10 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

There does seem to be something special with Shakir. The dude just knows how to YAC. I'm having a hard time figuring who his past or present comp would be in the league. 

Golden Tate vibes. 
 

 

[GoBills808]

41 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

Golden Tate vibes. 
 

 

Danny Amendola