Calling it now: You're all about to witness the arrival of Shakir

[MasterStrategist]

45 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm curious about your thoughts on the Michigan State tape. His contested catch percentage was much better there than it was at FSU. I don't think Coleman regressed so that leads me to believe it was a difference in QB that caused the substantial dip in contested catch percentage. I thought Jordan Travis had very poor ball placement and timing on a lot of those opportunities.

 

In any case I don't like Coleman because of what he's done. I like him because of what I think he will be after NFL coaching and seasoning. All the tools are there, he just needs to learn how to use that size and body control to dominate CBs at the next level.

Spot on, I came away with the same conclusions after watching Mich ST vs FL ST snaps.

 

Travis extended plays, and Coleman seems to do very well being "qb friendly" on those play types.  But Jordan was inconsistent with ball placement, and his timing was a typical college QB at many times (little anticipation/underthrew Coleman on some deep passes).

 

His contested catches were quite solid when the QB put it where it was intended (ie: back shoulder, away from defenders leverage, etc).  He even bailed out Travis quite a few times.  Travis might be a quality backup someday, but I think Colemans game will transition to Josh's playing style and benefit of much better ball placement.  We also finally have a WR capable of drawing Def Pass Interfernce penalties downfield, alot weren't called in college but NFL is much different.

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

But, there is a very strong theme Beane has made very clear...he wants players with an edge, players who bring more swagger and toughness to the table.  He isn't trying to build a track team out there, he is giving Allen options at various phases of the field, guys who can make that extra play or two that we have failed to make in the post season that has kept us from advancing.  

 

They said Jefferson was a big slot too.  They said Mike Evans wasn't fast enough to be on the outside.  And I know that you felt DeAndre Hopkins was the best WR in football for a long time, yet Coleman's pro day 40 was faster than any 40 Hopkins ran. 

 

So for me, I think he is going to excel at the contested catch in the NFL and benefit from off script throws by Allen too getting him balls in areas only he can get to.  And I do think he has the commitment, intelligence, and athleticism to excel and succeed in the NFL at getting separation and plenty of YAC as well.  

I think the strong theme Beane/Brady are going for is catch percentage.  Players with better hands.  And I think K Coleman fits that mold.  The future looks bright.

 

But the present 2023 season needs improvement, IMO, in the WR room IMO.  Just one more good WR that lines up outside.

 

I love that you bring up DHop because he is on my wish  list.  We could send enticing draft capital and find enough cash to handle the $13M salary and play cap games to extend another year.  DHop could be a great mentor to K Coleman.

[BurpleBull]

19 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

No need to repeat yourself.

Oh no!😟

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I think the strong theme Beane/Brady are going for is catch percentage.  Players with better hands.  And I think K Coleman fits that mold.  The future looks bright.

 

But the present 2023 season needs improvement, IMO, in the WR room IMO.  Just one more good WR that lines up outside.

 

I love that you bring up DHop because he is on my wish  list.  We could send enticing draft capital and find enough cash to handle the $13M salary and play cap games to extend another year.  DHop could be a great mentor to K Coleman.

I wasn’t interested in using the draft capital and cap space on DHop, but now that we drafted Coleman, I’m much more open to it as I agree he would be an excellent mentor.  

[PBF81]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Sadly I agree with a lot of this. My scouting report on Coleman was basically (this is almost word for word my original notes on him).

 

1. Elite size and fast enough without top end speed - seems to move faster with the ball than when running routes. 

 

2. Does not separate, espeically vertically. Lacks explosion in his get off which often results in him giving up leverage early in the down when outside. 

 

3. Hands are okay but doesn't win enough contested catches for a guy with his size (my point there basically not a lot of "drops" in the true sense of the word but a lot of balls he could make a play on and reel in that he doesn't manage to)

 

4. Better uses his leverage and size when deployed from the slot and gets a free release. That allows him to dictate to the DB better.

 

5. YAC monster, surprisingly fluid when ball carrying for a guy his size and tough to bring down in the open field. 

 

6. Excellent and willing run blocker.

 

7. Very young probably not yet fully developed physically. NFL coaching and conditioning could help his explosion which might give him a better chance in time outside.

 

Ideal usage: big slot receiver, some outside use in redzone and goalline. Developmental prospect as an outside receiver between the 20s. 

 

Late 2nd round grade. (He ended up #50 overall on my board FWIW)

 

_ _ _ _ _ 

 

If the Bills had a true #1 (still had the Diggs of two years ago for example) and were bringing Coleman in as a potential upgrade to Gabe I'd completely have got it. He has some similar traits and good reason to think his ceiling is higher. But if they bring this kid in stick him outside and expect him to be your #1 outside receiver early I fear you are setting him and your team up to be disappointed.

 

Wow, I think anyone watching that video will come away with the exact same conclusions.  

 

 

[PBF81]

6 hours ago, Logic said:

With that said, while I appreciate the conclusion you came to after watching his "All Targets" video, I feel like you're being a bit unfair and unreasonable.

 

Well, OK, I'd be happy to go thru game-by-game, one game/day and annotate each target/catch if you like.  Be fun, the schedule doesn't come out for at least another week.  

 

 

6 hours ago, Logic said:

Coleman was a consensus top 40 player in this draft. There was barely an outlet anywhere that didn't list him as such. We saw Bill Belichick's draft board on the McAfee pre-draft show, and it had Coleman as a top 40 player. We know for sure the Bills had him there. Rumors are that the Patriots wanted to draft him as well, and in any case, he likely would've never fallen past pick 40 at the very latest.

My point is that your comments about "wondering why anyone sees anything in him at all" indicate to me that you might be out of your depth. That is to say, there must be a REASON so many different pro scouts and analysts saw enough potential in Coleman to grade him as a second round prospect. The fact that you fail to see what that reasons might be suggests that maybe you're not sure what to be looking for.

 

Now don't get me wrong -- the pros get it wrong sometimes, too, and busts and bad players are routinely drafted high. But Beane has a reasonably good draft track record (I said reasonably good, not elite) and an army of scouts that do this for a living, and they saw fit to draft Coleman with the 33rd pick. Surely there must be SOME reason. Surely there must be SOME redeeming qualities.  

While I still don't like pick, I can at least admit that he has positive and moldable qualities. Your analysis makes it sound like he's a 5th to 7th round prospect -- if not outright undraftable -- and that just strikes me as overkill. I can't help but wonder what your conclusion would've been about Josh Allen if you had watched an "all throws" video from his final college season.  

 

You put waaaay too much credence in the "draft experts."  They whiff on so many picks every season.  

 

Either way, I wasn't referring to my take or your take, I was referring to the actual plays that he participated in actively.  Again, I'd be happy to go thru that video GBG and PBP to discuss.  IMO there's not a whole lot of controversy if you actually watch it.  

 

As to being out of my depth, LOL, OK.  But FWIW I was about the only one I know that made similar claims about Watkins and sternly warned that Evans would be the far better WR and that Watkins had little chance of living up to his hype.  I also pointed that the plays on which Zay Jones made a living at SC simply wouldn't occur in the NFL and that he'd be a bust.  Back when we drafted Hardy in the early 2nd round I boldly claimed that he'd bust and that Stevie Johnson would be a far better WR.  The heat I took for those publicly.  LOL  There are others, but I'm quite comfortable with my analyses and assessments on players.  

 

Not to argue on that, but the point is that more players than not do not live up to their top-40 grades.  And honestly, using Belichick as an example of draft boards, ... that's a good one.  Unless it's linemen or defenders ... 

 

Either way, not trying to be contentious, but if you'd like to go thru the video like that, let me know.  I'm pretty sure you'd agree by the end of the exercise.  

 

 

[PBF81]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Diggs disappeared under Dorsey the year before too in the 2nd half of the season and playoffs.  Diggs has never in 4 seasons had a great playoff run, or even a good one. 

 

Everyone except for Davis disappeared in the playoffs and even he wasn't entirely consistent.  There's not a player on our team besides Allen that a claim for playoff consistency can be made.  Not one.  That my friend definitely has to do with coaching.  

 

 

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Or maybe that had to do with their QB not being very good.  If you cant see the MASSIVE canyon of difference between Allen and Bridgewater and how that will affect the two teams scoring then I don't know what to tell you.  And those guys had that season with a crappy Bridgewater at QB.

 

29th and 30th.  Bridgewater isn't that bad.  And this isn't a comparison between Allen and Bridgewater, if you are going to make one, it would be wise to acknowledge that Allen can cover quite a few coaching sins.  

 

 

5 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

How are you getting 3-4 drops against Boston College?

 

You must be grading this extremely difficult against Coleman intentionally.

 

Travis' ball placement is horrible on half his throws, not only against BC but others.  He's also late with his throws until Keon is wide open on others, and under threw at least 2 long TDs to Keon.

 

Back to BC game, Keon back shoulder in end zone his arm is being arm barred on 1st pass...that would've been a 1 handed catch...is that 1 of your 4 drops?  How about the crosser where Travis throws the ball behind Keon, into double coverage...does that count as another?

 

You can be against the pick, that's your opinion.  But if you're counting 15 drops, that just seems like biased judgment of what you deem "catchable", bad throws/uncatchable, and what are true 50/50 balls.  First play vs LSU, Travis throws that pass at least 1 foot over a 6' 4" man who also got a great vertical on the play,  was that a drop?

 

Drops are a judgement.  You do realize that there's no hard standard and different stat sites/companies tally them differently, right?  

 

Did you actually watch the video?  Again, I'd be happy to go thru it PBP/GBG.  Just let me know.  We can discuss each catch.  

 

BTW, I've posted this about a half-dozen times, it's also a great analysis.  

 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-florida-state-keon-coleman-polarizing-wide-receiver-prospect

 

It contradicts a lot of the draft profiles.  

 

 

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, NewEra said:

We have different interpretations of an argument

 

OK, but I'm the one that's willing to put in the time, again, together this time, to go through all of the video evidence.  You don't appear to be willing to do that and there's still no indication that you even watched it.  What, can't afford 15 minutes a day for a week to actually analye it.  Seriously, I have absolutely zero idea how anyone watches all of Coleman's plays last season and comes away with the notion that he's anything but a gadget/slot guy.  I'd guess off-hand that half the plays he ran were bubble screens or something akin to that.  Yeah, those'll work well in the NFL.  LOL 

 

 

Edited May 3 by PBF81

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

OK, but I'm the one that's willing to put in the time, again, together this time, to go through all of the video evidence.  You don't appear to be willing to do that and there's still no indication that you even watched it.  Seriously, I have absolutely zero idea how anyone watches all of Coleman's plays last season and comes away with the notion that he's anything but a gadget/slot guy.  I'd guess off-hand that half the plays he ran were bubble screens or something akin to that.  Yeah, those'll work well in the NFL.  LOL 

 

 

Of course it is. Arguing is your MO.   I’ll take a pot shot and be on my way nowadays.  Ain’t no one convincing anyone of anything and ain’t no one admitting that their wrong when discussing things that cannot be proven.  

But now that we’re here, amuse me. 
Debate my post that you originally quoted with something more than what Badol has already provided you with.   

[PBF81]

17 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Of course it is. Arguing is your MO.   I’ll take a pot shot and be on my way nowadays.  Ain’t no one convincing anyone of anything and ain’t no one admitting that their wrong when discussing things that cannot be proven.  

But now that we’re here, amuse me. 
Debate my post that you originally quoted with something more than what Badol has already provided you with.   

 

My offer stands.  You can take me up on it or keep arguing.  

 

Your call.  What I just wrote is not an argument.  

 

Here's an argument:  You just don't like the takes so you manifest that in tantrums of sorts.  Never willing to look at the actual data, just countering with your opinions.  

 

 

Edited May 3 by PBF81

[NewEra]

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

My offer stands.  You can take me up on it or keep arguing.  

 

Your call.  What I just wrote is not an argument.  

 

Here's an argument:  You just don't like the takes so you manifest that in tantrums of sorts.  Never willing to look at the actual data, just countering with your opinions.  

 

 

14 hours ago, NewEra said:

No, but Kincaid will

 

12 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

We will see. 

 

 

 

9 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

If you want to argue we can replicate this ...  

 

 

From my vantage point, you wanted to argue about Kincaid being doubled.  That was the topic at hand.  
 

I had better things to do.  Just as I do now that you’ve played your hand as predictably as ever.  Only here for one reason.  👏🏻 welcome back.  To ignore.  

[PBF81]

49 minutes ago, NewEra said:

 👏🏻 welcome back.  To ignore.  

 

Thank you!  Perfect.    

 

 

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm curious about your thoughts on the Michigan State tape. His contested catch percentage was much better there than it was at FSU. I don't think Coleman regressed so that leads me to believe it was a difference in QB that caused the substantial dip in contested catch percentage. I thought Jordan Travis had very poor ball placement and timing on a lot of those opportunities.

 

In any case I don't like Coleman because of what he's done. I like him because of what I think he will be after NFL coaching and seasoning. All the tools are there, he just needs to learn how to use that size and body control to dominate CBs at the next level.

 

I still think on the Michigan State tape there are balls he fails to make a play on because he is in the wrong position having given up leverage outside and so what looks like it is a contested catch shouldn't have been.

[dgrochester55]

I hope so, I see the potential, but it is not a guarantee. Lets not forget how many people saw Gabe Davis as the next breakthrough star two years ago.  There is a huge difference on how you are covered when you are seen by opponents as the #4 or #5 option compared to the #1 or #2.

 

It will be interesting to see if Shakir can step up and fill that role.

[DCOrange]

13 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm curious about your thoughts on the Michigan State tape. His contested catch percentage was much better there than it was at FSU. I don't think Coleman regressed so that leads me to believe it was a difference in QB that caused the substantial dip in contested catch percentage. I thought Jordan Travis had very poor ball placement and timing on a lot of those opportunities.

 

In any case I don't like Coleman because of what he's done. I like him because of what I think he will be after NFL coaching and seasoning. All the tools are there, he just needs to learn how to use that size and body control to dominate CBs at the next level.

This is really the crux of it. Without developing further, he is probably best suited to be a big slot in the NFL but at his age and relative inexperience, that's not really the point of drafting him. You're drafting him for the contested catch ability, YAC skills, and run blocking right now and hoping the rest develops as he comes into his body/simply works on football more.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, DCOrange said:

This is really the crux of it. Without developing further, he is probably best suited to be a big slot in the NFL but at his age and relative inexperience, that's not really the point of drafting him. You're drafting him for the contested catch ability, YAC skills, and run blocking right now and hoping the rest develops as he comes into his body/simply works on football more.

 

I agree. That is the crux of it. The problem as I see it for the Bills is that they have a big hole at outside receiver and there is a lot of pressure on this kid to fill it day 1.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Does Shakir have that dog in him though? I’m not sure. He’s just a happy go lucky guy. 

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

The problem as I see it for the Bills is that they have a big hole at outside receiver and there is a lot of pressure on this kid to fill it day 1.

 

Unfortunately that is Brandon Beane's fault unless he makes a move after June 1. I'm not going to hold it against Coleman. I don't expect him to be a #1 outside WR on day one. If he is forced into that role we will have to hope he develops quickly. If he has an Eric Moulds or Davante Adams career path no one will be unhappy with that outcome but we won't see the fruits until year three in that scenario.

[GunnerBill]

51 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Unfortunately that is Brandon Beane's fault unless he makes a move after June 1. I'm not going to hold it against Coleman. I don't expect him to be a #1 outside WR on day one. If he is forced into that role we will have to hope he develops quickly. If he has an Eric Moulds or Davante Adams career path no one will be unhappy with that outcome but we won't see the fruits until year three in that scenario.

 

Personally I think that is quite likely. Agree that isn't Coleman's fault. It is just my view as to where he is and what the performance arc looks like. 

[dave mcbride]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I still think on the Michigan State tape there are balls he fails to make a play on because he is in the wrong position having given up leverage outside and so what looks like it is a contested catch shouldn't have been.

Well, he was 19 years old at the time and coming off playing for MSU's basketball team in the spring of 2022 (they lost to Duke in the second round of the tournament). Cut him a little slack.