Calling it now: You're all about to witness the arrival of Shakir

[White Linen]

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I presume Shakir will lead the Bills in receiving yards.......I know people love Kincaid for that but an untested, elevated WR1 is generally the better bet than an unproven TE1..........but 13.5 yards per target on 100 targets?

 

 C'mon now.

 

It was one thing doing that in limited exposure last year..........defense's aren't just going to let him roll up 80 yards per game and leave nickel and dime defenders on him.    That would be a pretty crazy season if he did that with so little else around him.    Aiyuk had a similar ypt last year but that was with Deebo, Kittle and McCaffrey also commanding attention.

 

Yeah, I see what you mean.  It's pretty ridiculous to think Allen could elevate a receiver to that level.  Obviously Purdy having better weapons is the only way it can happen.

[MasterStrategist]

I'm hoping for Shakir to have a big season, first key is keeping him healthy.  My biggest question is just that/can he handle the target share to approach 1k.

 

I just see too many options that are similar talent-level but bring a different skillset.  Kincaid has the most potential.  

 

I'm expecting 3-4 guys in the 700-900 range.  2-3 in the 400-600 range (Cook, Hollins, Knox if he stays healthy). Then some unknowns in how they use Davis, MVS, Ty.

 

Like I've said all offseason, it's going to be a committee type and I'm not expecting Shakir to be our leading receiver.  It's either Kincaid or Samuel IMO

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, White Linen said:

 

Yeah, I see what you mean.  It's pretty ridiculous to think Allen could elevate a receiver to that level.  Obviously Purdy having better weapons is the only way it can happen.

 

The more normal result is that a great WR is great even if his QB(s) aren't very good.   That happens.   Does a great QB ever double the otherwise reasonably expected output of a WR to the extent of making him one of the top producers in the game?   I don't think we've EVER seen that happen.   The QUALITY of WR talent matters.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, Allen2Coleman said:

He seems to find open spots in the defense going to be interesting this year to see him get even more involved and if he can keep improving this year.

 

He's more than that though I think. Beasley found open spots. Shakir has serious YAC ability based on what we saw out of him last year. 

[White Linen]

49 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The more normal result is that a great WR is great even if his QB(s) aren't very good.   That happens.   Does a great QB ever double the otherwise reasonably expected output of a WR to the extent of making him one of the top producers in the game?   I don't think we've EVER seen that happen.   The QUALITY of WR talent matters.

 

I do think the quality of the WR talent matters but to say we've never seen a great QB cause a WR to emerge is absurd.  

 

Wes Welker immediately doubled his output from Miami to NE and he doubled it for 3 straight years.  

 

I also think the Bills change from Diggs, Gabe and Knox to Kincaid, Shakir and whoever emerges is rare.  However to think Allen isn't going to cause a couple receivers to have great years relatively, IMO, is nuts.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

 

I'm expecting 3-4 guys in the 700-900 range.  2-3 in the 400-600 range (Cook, Hollins, Knox if he stays healthy). Then some unknowns in how they use Davis, MVS, Ty.

 

At least one over 1000, and maybe two.  Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, Coleman each are candidates.

[ToGoGo]

1 hour ago, White Linen said:

 

I do think the quality of the WR talent matters but to say we've never seen a great QB cause a WR to emerge is absurd.  

 

Wes Welker immediately doubled his output from Miami to NE and he doubled it for 3 straight years.  

 

I also think the Bills change from Diggs, Gabe and Knox to Kincaid, Shakir and whoever emerges is rare.  However to think Allen isn't going to cause a couple receivers to have great years relatively, IMO, is nuts.

Can’t believe the poster you replied to even suggested that. 

[Scott7975]

14 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

@NewEra is correct. I was looking for comps in term of playing style. Not production or target volume. 

 

Robert Woods, Zay Flowers? There measurables are very close. Shakir is actually a bit more athletic than both.  Hard to say as I think he hasnt gotten all that much play and have to see his role this year.  I was banging the drum for him last year though. He was our most explosive player.

Edited September 2 by Scott7975

[HOUSE]

Who called it first ?

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/news/buffalo-bills-espn-khalil-shakir-leading-receiver

Edited September 2 by HOUSE

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, HOUSE said:

Who cared it first?

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/news/buffalo-bills-espn-khalil-shakir-leading-receiver

I cared too, 

[Orlando Buffalo]

I watched him a couple times in college and know he has big play ability but he is definitely smaller so it might limit his usage. I am hopeful but expect about 700-800 yards from him this year. 

[Allen2Coleman]

9 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

He's more than that though I think. Beasley found open spots. Shakir has serious YAC ability based on what we saw out of him last year. 

I don’t think he’s too much like Beasley, Shakir finds open spots all over the field Beasly had the nack of finding a first down but rarely was there yac, and it tended to be in the same area. But it has been a while since weve seen Beasly could be bad memory on my part . 

[BillsVet]

This along with the other 100+ page thread is gonna be a back and forth of the raw emotion fans versus those who look for statistical evidence and/or understand human nature, i.e. what defenses will likely do.  

 

After Shakir went for 3-115-1 against NYJ in Week 11 he proceeded to go 11-143-1 in his next 5 games before 6-105-0 at Miami in the finale.  

 

That's 20-363-2 under Brady on 24 targets in 7 regular season games.  Then 10-75-2 in the 2 playoff games on 12 targets for 30 catches on 36 targets totaling 438 yards and 4 TDs in 9 games.    

 

Can see a few scenarios happening...either he elevates his game as a good slot receiver and performs fairly decent against even better coverage.  Or, they line him up outside and he struggles with less than ideal physical traits.  Or, he struggles inside against better coverage.

 

Whatever the case, just because he had moments last season doesn't mean it'll just work that way again.  Especially without Diggs to take heat away from him.  Someone else will have to fill that role to allow others to flourish.  

[BADOLBILZ]

17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

I have repeatedly told you 900-1100 yards was my range but you always like to exaggerate it incorrectly.

 

 

 

Yeah, that's my bad.   I guess I just can't wrap my head around why you think you are an outlier in thinking that Shakir can be a good starting receiver.   I could understand better if you were predicting year 3 Shakir was going to replicate A-R St. Brown's year 3 stats.   That would be extraordinary.  900?  Not so much.

 

There is still a big difference between 900 and 1100 yards.......that's two different tiers of receiver.   It's like the difference between 9 wins and 11 wins.  To paraphrase Parcells......."it's easy to get to 9 wins.......11-12 is an entirely different matter".    Gabe Davis peaked at 55.7 yards per game in 2022.   They really needed him to get to 65+ as the second option to keep pace with what they had done by committee in 2021-2022.   55 yards is not that high of a bar but you have been acting like it would be surreal and you were the only one who saw it coming.

 

I mean,  he was one of the most hyped 5th round picks I've ever seen.   Even Beane took a victory lap saying that other GM's were calling to congratulate him for getting a good player they coveted in the 5th.   His strengths have been exactly what was lauded on draft day.   No surprises.  His projected weakness(playing outside) has been able to be worked around.   And you can do that if the player isn't a primary option.   Here is the draft thread,  does it seem like fans were sleeping on him?:

 

 

Edited September 2 by BADOLBILZ

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah, that's my bad.   I guess I just can't wrap my head around why you think you are an outlier in thinking that Shakir can be a good starting receiver.   I could understand better if you were predicting year 3 Shakir was going to replicate A-R St. Brown's year 3 stats.   That would be extraordinary.  900?  Not so much.

 

There is still a big difference between 900 and 1100 yards.......that's two different tiers of receiver.   It's like the difference between 9 wins and 11 wins.  To paraphrase Parcells......."it's easy to get to 9 wins.......11-12 is an entirely different matter".    Gabe Davis peaked at 55.7 yards per game in 2022.   They really needed him to get to 65+ as the second option to keep pace with what they had done by committee in 2021-2022.   55 yards is not that high of a bar but you have been acting like it would be surreal and you were the only one who saw it coming.

 

I mean,  he was one of the most hyped 5th round picks I've ever seen.   Even Beane took a victory lap saying that other GM's were calling to congratulate him for getting a good player they coveted in the 5th.   His strengths have been exactly what was lauded on draft day.   No surprises.  His projected weakness(playing outside) has been able to be worked around.   And you can do that if the player isn't a primary option.   Here is the draft thread,  does it seem like fans were sleeping on him?:

 

 

 

A couple of things.

 

Are we certain Khalil is going to be the primary receiving target? Obviously, Kincaid has a very good chance to be that guy. But even outside of Kincaid, I could see Coleman being that guy as well. But I think a more likely scenario is that we see Kincaid, Khalil and Coleman all between 90 - 120 targets on the season. A fairly tight grouping for 1 -3 top target getters. If this is the case I think it takes more pressure off of Khalil as the primary target receiver even if he does end up leading the team in targets. 

 

Second, Beasley rightfully earned a 2nd team all-pro selection for his 967 yard season in 2020 and hitting that magic number of 65 ypg. He was a crucial cog in the Bills success offensively that season with a 68% success rater per PFR's success metric. Good for 7th highest success rate in the league that year and higher than Diggs 65%. Khalil had a 73% success rate last year, qualifying as the number one success rate out of all pass catchers. 

 

My hope is that the Bills have three players average in the ball park of 65 ypg receiving this year. Coleman, Shakir and Kincaid. With Cook and Davis combining for another 45 ypg. That puts Allen at 240 ypg passing. 4,080 yards on the season. Samuel is the wild card for me. If he stays healthy and the Bills feature him we could be looking at 4 players in the 65 ypg range with Coleman probably being the lowest average of the four. 

[ToGoGo]

4 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

A couple of things.

 

Are we certain Khalil is going to be the primary receiving target? Obviously, Kincaid has a very good chance to be that guy. But even outside of Kincaid, I could see Coleman being that guy as well. But I think a more likely scenario is that we see Kincaid, Khalil and Coleman all between 90 - 120 targets on the season. A fairly tight grouping for 1 -3 top target getters. If this is the case I think it takes more pressure off of Khalil as the primary target receiver even if he does end up leading the team in targets. 

 

Second, Beasley rightfully earned a 2nd team all-pro selection for his 967 yard season in 2020 and hitting that magic number of 65 ypg. He was a crucial cog in the Bills success offensively that season with a 68% success rater per PFR's success metric. Good for 7th highest success rate in the league that year and higher than Diggs 65%. Khalil had a 73% success rate last year, qualifying as the number one success rate out of all pass catchers. 

 

My hope is that the Bills have three players average in the ball park of 65 ypg receiving this year. Coleman, Shakir and Kincaid. With Cook and Davis combining for another 45 ypg. That puts Allen at 240 ypg passing. 4,080 yards on the season. Samuel is the wild card for me. If he stays healthy and the Bills feature him we could be looking at 4 players in the 65 ypg range with Coleman probably being the lowest average of the four. 

We’re going to see a receiver by committee offense with no real #1. Don’t be surprised if Kincaid is the leading receiver at the end of the year. 
 

I keep thinking peak Russell Wilson Seahawks as the comp with Golden Tate/Lockett/Baldwin/Zach Miller/Jimmy Graham. 
 

When Allen threw his perfect game against the Pats, it was a committee performance. Don’t be surprised if this is a career year for Allen. 

[oldmanfan]

I think Brady is going to have a lot of pre-snap motion with the wideouts to help scheme guys open.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah, that's my bad.   I guess I just can't wrap my head around why you think you are an outlier in thinking that Shakir can be a good starting receiver.   I could understand better if you were predicting year 3 Shakir was going to replicate A-R St. Brown's year 3 stats.   That would be extraordinary.  900?  Not so much.

 

There is still a big difference between 900 and 1100 yards.......that's two different tiers of receiver.   It's like the difference between 9 wins and 11 wins.  To paraphrase Parcells......."it's easy to get to 9 wins.......11-12 is an entirely different matter".    Gabe Davis peaked at 55.7 yards per game in 2022.   They really needed him to get to 65+ as the second option to keep pace with what they had done by committee in 2021-2022.   55 yards is not that high of a bar but you have been acting like it would be surreal and you were the only one who saw it coming.

 

I mean,  he was one of the most hyped 5th round picks I've ever seen.   Even Beane took a victory lap saying that other GM's were calling to congratulate him for getting a good player they coveted in the 5th.   His strengths have been exactly what was lauded on draft day.   No surprises.  His projected weakness(playing outside) has been able to be worked around.   And you can do that if the player isn't a primary option.   Here is the draft thread,  does it seem like fans were sleeping on him?:

 

 

Yet you spent all last offseason and even during the season trying to convince me Shakir can’t catch.  Earlier this offseason you kept trying to downplay Shakir as well.  
 

LMAO…love how you try and spin your stance now though like you weren’t throwing shade at him the past 2 years.  And I find it hilarious you want to pretend now everyone has been as high on Shakir as I have not only now but the past 2 seasons.  Was I the only one, certainly not, but the majority saw him as a role player at best or some meh player until recently.  

Edited September 2 by Alphadawg7

[transplantbillsfan]

I hope so. I just drafted him as a starting WR in fantasy.

 

Also got Josh Allen and Dalton Kincaid 

[ddaryl]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

 

My hope is that the Bills have three players average in the ball park of 65 ypg receiving this year. Coleman, Shakir and Kincaid. With Cook and Davis combining for another 45 ypg. That puts Allen at 240 ypg passing. 4,080 yards on the season. Samuel is the wild card for me. If he stays healthy and the Bills feature him we could be looking at 4 players in the 65 ypg range with Coleman probably being the lowest average of the four. 

 

1 hour ago, ToGoGo said:

We’re going to see a receiver by committee offense with no real #1. Don’t be surprised if Kincaid is the leading receiver at the end of the year. 
 

I keep thinking peak Russell Wilson Seahawks as the comp with Golden Tate/Lockett/Baldwin/Zach Miller/Jimmy Graham. 
 

When Allen threw his perfect game against the Pats, it was a committee performance. Don’t be surprised if this is a career year for Allen. 

 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401326626

 

That playoff game is a great example of wr by commitee...  As it started to look more like that  Brady took over OC imo. 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401547543

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401547558

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401547583

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401547600

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401547611

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401547626

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401547647

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401547751

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401547758