Calling it now: You're all about to witness the arrival of Shakir

[Alphadawg7]

Heading into the draft in 2022 I posted about keeping an eye on Shakir and the Bills.  I missed rounds 3 and 4 and came back to the draft right as we were announcing our pick in the 5th having no idea he was still on the board and was stunned when they called his name and thought I misheard it because I figured he would go in rounds 2 or 3.  I was thrilled when we called his name, maybe the most excited I have ever been about a pick that wasn't an early round choice, and I have been maybe his biggest cheerleader since getting here.  Ive got a pretty good track record on WR's around here, and he was one I felt from the get go was going to be different and develop into a great player for us.  

 

Ive posted threads and countless comments about him since we took him, and here is a quote back in early May after the draft showing an example of that belief in him early on and not just since his mini breakout this year.  

 

On 5/11/2022 at 11:34 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

Another example...Shakir this year...getting him in the 5th round, I do think he has elite talent potential where he could develop into one of the best slot WRs in football.  So much about his tape reminds me of Kupp in how he uses his hands, controls his body, runs his routes etc.  And he has some of Deebo or AJ Brown in him after the catch too where he runs with strength and agility.  Doesn't mean he will, but I do think he has elite talent potential despite a 2nd/3rd round grade heading into draft and an actual 5th round draft selection.  

 

Now after reading that above from May of 2022...watch this highlight video and tell me that doesn't look spot on to how I described hm.  From how he plays as a WR, to how he has some Deebo and AJ Brown in him with the ball in his hands.

 

SHAKIR HIGHLIGHTS CLICK HERE (highly suggest you watch before commenting to at least see what I am referencing)

 

This man is an excellent route runner...has sure hands...runs a 4.43 forty...is shifty...excels with YAC and is tough when running...and he is a smart player.  Most importantly, he has the drive to be great and trains in the offseason with players like Moulds.  His biggest shortcoming is he doesn't have long arms which makes him less of a go up and get it WR, but we don't need him to be that when he is so good at everything else.

 

2023 Stats: 87% Catch Rate, 39 Rec on 45 Targets, 611 Yards (13.5 yards per TARGET - insane), 15.6 YPC, 2 TD's

 

Diggs had 160 targets in 2023 for 1183 yards.  Now I know Diggs is drawing the best of the defense a lot of the times, so its not an apples to apples comparison.  But just out of curiosity, what does Shakir's season look like on 160 targets based on his stats last year?  

 

Diggs:  160 Targets, 107 Rec, 1183 yards, 8 TD's

Shakir:  160 Targets, 139 Rec, 2160 yards, 7 TD's

 

Again, I know that is an unrealistic comparison given the level of defensive attention both got and how Shakir benefits from the extra attention Diggs takes.  BUT...that is a massively different level of efficiency and effectiveness.  And defenses STILL will have to contend with Shakir, what ever rookie we draft, Kincaid, Samuel, Knox, Cook as receiver and Allen running.  So Shakir still should see plenty of opportunities against the defenses moving forward.  

 

I mean, even if he just gets up to 100 targets, that is still a 1,350 yard season, and make no mistake about it, he very well could (and probably should) see 100 targets this year.  He is going to be the ONLY WR with any experience and rapport with Josh entering camp, he definitely caught Josh's attention and the teams last year and became a play making machine who they trust.  This team notoriously likes to ease Rookies in as much as they can, so doubtful any rookie is coming in commanding anywhere near Diggs target share.  

 

Dorsey was an idiot for not using him in 2022 when we needed help bad in the slot...he was a bigger fool for not getting him involved earlier in 2023.  In Joe Bradys first game, Shakir had his first career 100 yard game and would go on to end the season with another one.  Diggs had 0 games with 100 yards during that stretch.  

 

In the aftermath of the Diggs trade...the time is now.  I think you will see Shakir emerge as a legit WR and legit weapon for this team and not only will he break 1000 yards this year, he very well may lead the team in both receptions and yards.  And I think he is one of the reasons they felt confident to trade Diggs now rather than later.  

 

You heard it hear first...and have been hearing it here about him since before the 2022 draft.  

 

#WitnessTheArrival

Edited April 5 by Alphadawg7

[NickelCity]

It's a good write up and I don't wanna be glib, but to an extent I think he arrived last season! To bills fans at least. He'll be known to league wide fans shortly.

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, NickelCity said:

It's a good write up and I don't wanna be glib, but to an extent I think he arrived last season! To bills fans at least. He'll be known to league wide fans shortly.

 

I don't disagree, I even referenced his season as a mini breakout last year and some are seeing what I have been saying since 2022, but most are still over looking him and what his potential now is with Diggs gone.  Most still think of him as more of a role player.

[mrags]

I think he’s a lock for our slot WR. And fully expect him to be as good or better than Beasley at his best on the Bills. At a minimum, assuming he’s healthy all season, I fully expect 80+ receptions, 800+ yards, and 7+ TDs. 

[NickelCity]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I don't disagree, I even referenced his season as a mini breakout last year and some are seeing what I have been saying since 2022, but most are still over looking him and what his potential now is with Diggs gone.  Most still think of him as more of a role player.

 

It's not an unreasonable take. I really only frequent TBD, so I'm used to more plugged in bills fans (lol). 

 

Id like to see Shakir add a few Beasley moves to find a soft spots in zones. He has done it, and I can't wait to see more 

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, mrags said:

I think he’s a lock for our slot WR. And fully expect him to be as good or better than Beasley at his best on the Bills. At a minimum, assuming he’s healthy all season, I fully expect 80+ receptions, 800+ yards, and 7+ TDs. 

 

If he gets 80 receptions, he will definitely be over 1000 yards.  He is too good after the catch not to be.  Cole was amazing at getting to a spot and making the play to move the chains.  He wasn't the YAC guy that Shakir is, Cole was easy to take down and tackle.  

[NoSaint]

I’ll say again- lance moore, not kupp.

 

who is still a great contributor but not an elite player

[Búfalo Blanco]

I'll definitely agree with you on this one, Alphadawg... 

 

Shakir was my favorite Bills breakout last season and he didn't take off quite like I thought he would, but there were glimpses.. especially once Brady took over.

 

Great analysis.

[mrags]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

If he gets 80 receptions, he will definitely be over 1000 yards.  He is too good after the catch not to be.  Cole was amazing at getting to a spot and making the play to move the chains.  He wasn't the YAC guy that Shakir is, Cole was easy to take down and tackle.  

Agree on the comparison or lack of. I am just not sold on him reaching 1k yet. Diggs is the only one to do it since John Browns first year on the team when he was the #1 and barely surpassed 1k with 1,060 yards. 

 

 

 

 

[SCBills]

I still legitimately have no idea what Shakir is tbh. 

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, NoSaint said:

I’ll say again- lance moore, not kupp.

 

who is still a great contributor but not an elite player

 

No disrespect, but I can confidently say he will be a much better player than Lance Moore.  

 

I am not saying he is as good as Kupp, but no one thought Kupp was a WR1 until he had a monster season with Stafford one year and got an insane 191 targets.  For Kupp, it was a change at QB and almost 200 targets to break out into legit WR1 discussions...for Shakir, it might just be the removal of a 160 target hog of Diggs.  But he does pattern his game off of Kupp and studies him, and I felt his college tape reminded me a lot of Kupp even before he said that just in style of play. 

 

Big difference though between Shakir and Kupp is Shakir is quite a bit faster than Kupp down field (4.43 compared to a 4.64 forty time) but Kupp has excellent sudden movement so he plays a lot faster than his 40 time suggests in the short and mid areas of the field where he eats the most.  

[MJS]

I think Shakir is a good player. He is versatile. I just don't think he has a super high ceiling. He could develop into a decent #2 receiver or slot receiver, but I don't see him as more than that.

 

But I could be wrong. You never know.

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I still legitimately have no idea what Shakir is tbh. 

 

And thats fair...that just means it will be even more fun for you when you find out this year HA 

[HappyDays]

21 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I mean, even if he just gets up to 100 targets, that is still a 1,350 yard season

 

It's not a 1:1 comparison but this was the pro-Gabe Davis narrative after 2020. As we found out, yards per target doesn't automatically scale like that. Some players' skill sets shine better when they are low target players.

 

I'll gladly eat crow if I'm wrong but I think Shakir is one of those players. I see people compare him to Beasley but I think they're almost total opposites. Shakir isn't nearly as sudden as Beasley was on his route breaks which means his success against man will always be limited. If you can't regularly beat man you can't be a high volume target, simple as that.

 

I still love Shakir in his current role though. Strong hands + great YAC is an extremely valuable complementary skillset.

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, MJS said:

I think Shakir is a good player. He is versatile. I just don't think he has a super high ceiling. He could develop into a decent #2 receiver or slot receiver, but I don't see him as more than that.

 

But I could be wrong. You never know.

 

All good, its why I started this thread.  A lot of people feel the same as you, nothing wrong with that.  Honest question...did you watch the highlight video?  I think people forget the kind of plays he was making when he got opportunities.  These were not just a bunch of simple plays.  The route running, concentration, hands, body control, physicality, YAC ability were all on display.  I think people still have a limited view of him based on his draft slot of the 5th round because what he has shown glimpses of on the field is pretty strong.   

 

Edited April 5 by Alphadawg7

[Alphadawg7]

28 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

It's a good write up and I don't wanna be glib, but to an extent I think he arrived last season! To bills fans at least. He'll be known to league wide fans shortly.

 

As you can see by the responses here...most still see him as more of a role player as I was saying.  Nothing wrong with that, but this is what I mean when I say I believe everyone is about to see the arrival of Shakir as more than just a role player many think he is.

[HappyDays]

18 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I am not saying he is as good as Kupp, but no one thought Kupp was a WR1 until he had a monster season with Stafford one year and got an insane 191 targets.  For Kupp, it was a change at QB and almost 200 targets to break out into legit WR1 discussions...for Shakir, it might just be the removal of a 160 target hog of Diggs.  But he does pattern his game off of Kupp and studies him, and I felt his college tape reminded me a lot of Kupp even before he said that just in style of play. 

 

Kupp's route running was special. Shakir's route running is pretty good. He creates space after the catch, not before the catch.

 

If anything Puka Nacua is the stylistic comp you're looking for, although Nacua is 2 inches taller and his arms are 2.5 inches longer. If Shakir can be the poor man's version of what Nacua was last year that's more than satisfactory.

[NoSaint]

10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No disrespect, but I can confidently say he will be a much better player than Lance Moore.  

 

I am not saying he is as good as Kupp, but no one thought Kupp was a WR1 until he had a monster season with Stafford one year and got an insane 191 targets.  For Kupp, it was a change at QB and almost 200 targets to break out into legit WR1 discussions...for Shakir, it might just be the removal of a 160 target hog of Diggs.  But he does pattern his game off of Kupp and studies him, and I felt his college tape reminded me a lot of Kupp even before he said that just in style of play. 

 

Big difference though between Shakir and Kupp is Shakir is quite a bit faster than Kupp down field (4.43 compared to a 4.64 forty time) but Kupp has excellent sudden movement so he plays a lot faster than his 40 time suggests in the short and mid areas of the field where he eats the most.  

kupp had 92 and 94 catches the two years prior tied for 11th and outright 9th in the league with Goff at qb. Stafford is very wr friendly but lets not pretend about kupp

 

being a west coast nfc team he wasn’t a household name especially here but I think he was a wr1 unless you mean wasn’t wr1 for the entire nfl 

 

as for Moore- top 3 seasons would be: 

 

65-1041-6

79-928-10

66-763-8

 

Solid yac guy who did some punt/kick returns. Not a ton but I call it out as a testament to him being able to move with the ball. 

[0017]

I’m excited to see what he can do with a full year under Brady, he has great hands, some of his catches in the playoffs were really good! I think he’s earned a spot in the lineup when we have a slot WR on the field. 

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's not a 1:1 comparison but this was the pro-Gabe Davis narrative after 2020. As we found out, yards per target doesn't automatically scale like that. Some players' skill sets shine better when they are low target players.

 

I'll gladly eat crow if I'm wrong but I think Shakir is one of those players. I see people compare him to Beasley but I think they're almost total opposites. Shakir isn't nearly as sudden as Beasley was on his route breaks which means his success against man will always be limited. If you can't regularly beat man you can't be a high volume target, simple as that.

 

I still love Shakir in his current role though. Strong hands + great YAC is an extremely valuable complementary skillset.

 

All good, this isn't one of those things where I am going to tell everyone they are wrong.  More just putting it out there now where my level of confidence is, and has always been, with Shakir in this league.  I have done a few of these Calling it now posts and all have been spot on or very close to spot on because I only do it when I really feel it.  And I can't tell you why, but I have just always felt it about Shakir going back to college.  

 

And agree, the Beasley comparison makes no sense at all.  Honestly, those people comparing him to Beasley are just making a lazy comparison because they see them both as slot WRs even though they are not remotely similar as players.  Cole was quick, not fast.  He was smart, not tough.  He was a move the chains slot guy, not a make a big play slot guy.  Don't get me wrong, Cole was a very good slot WR, he was just solely a slot WR and a short area specialist.  Shakir can move inside and outside, he is fast and can beat you downfield.  He isnt as fast as Cole with that sudden movement, but few are, and Shakir is still quick himself with good route running to go with it.  

 

All good, I am glad you at least see him as a valuable player.  But I do think you find out he is more than you are giving him credit for this upcoming season.  And if I am wrong, so be it, he will still be a valuable role player and fun to watch, that much he has already proved.