Beane's First-Round Deals

[Ralonzo]

On 4/4/2024 at 1:14 PM, Logic said:

The other one that makes sense to me is Denver at 12. The Broncos may want to move back, collect more picks, and go after a Bo Nix type at quarterback. Something like our 1st round picks this year and next year plus a 2nd could get this done. This would theoretically allow the Bills a shot at Brian Thomas Jr, the next best receiver after the "big three".

 

Odd that you mention Denver and Nix. I had a mock where I went the other direction - trading down from 28 to 35 with Denver who also added 71 and 226 in order to draft Nix. A subsequent trade down with Washington from 60 for 67 + 100 yielded the possibility of drafting the following players:

#35 Ad Mitchell WR

#67 Kingsley Suamataia T

#71 Ricky Pearsall/Devontez Walker WR

#100 Calen Bullock S

 

It's up to Beane to decide whether something like this is superior to leveraging the capital for one slam dunk player in the first half of R1, or an established threat who'll need a payday soon, but don't panic if nothing happens before #28 is on the clock. Day 2 tackles and receivers in this draft, some of them would go R1 in other years I'm sure.

Edited April 5 by Ralonzo
post got doubled

[Tipster19]

I don’t have time to figure out how to post a picture of Jefferson at Buffalo’s airport but I didn’t think it was him anyways so I confirmed it with my son who is a big LSU fan and he said that it’s definitely not Jefferson so scrap all that, I didn’t even want to say it but some here wanted to know why I thought Beane was ready to explode. With all that said I responded in Virgil’s previous post titled NFL Trade Chart-For Those Who Are Interested. Here’s what I think is very possible.

 

Thanks for posting this! Since the Diggs’ trade I’ve pondering Beane’s rationale and of course a trade up in the draft is almost a guarantee. Under that assumption I came up with some possibilities, 3 as a matter of fact.
 

When Beane gave up his 1st rd pick for Diggs it almost killed him. He was itching so bad during that draft. I remember him stopping just short of saying that he would never give up a 1st rder again unless it was in an extreme circumstance. Well, here we are! What I believe what Beane might be thinking is he can trade next year’s 1st rd pick this year because he has 2 2nd rd picks next year that he can pair up and get back into the 1st rd again. Just food for thought.

 

Scenario #1. Using the above chart Beane goes COMPLETELY all in and makes a trade with the Bears at #9. The Bears only have 4 picks in the entire draft so I could see them moving back to acquire more picks. This serves twofold, it gets them one of the top 3 WRs in the draft and it also leapfrogs the Jets at #10 who very well could be taking one of the top WRs themselves. My guess would be it’s for Rome Odunze.

 

Scenario #2. Once again Beane makes another leapfrog move and trades up with the Saints at #14 just before the Colts at #15. In this scenario it’s for LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr. Based on LSU WRs in the past (Chase & Jefferson) being so pro ready I believe that this is our best option for Diggs’ replacement. Git ‘er done Beanie!

 

Scenario #3. The Bills just stand pat at #28 and draft Georgia WR Ladd McConkey. Under this scenario I would think that the Bills would also make a trade for a veteran like Brandon Aiyuk. I won’t venture what the compensation would be but the Bills but I would imagine that Buffalo will have enough resources left to get a trade like this done. 
 

Personally I like Scenario #2 the best and that’s what I’m hoping for.

 

Edited April 5 by Tipster19

[Einstein's Dog]

2 hours ago, Dillenger4 said:

Good points. I am dreaming about an Ayouk trade. I think JJ is way too far fetched for our current position but it would be ideal.

Realistically speaking, I think Beane moves on one of the 2 following scenarios:

 

1) OBJ - he had 550yds and 3 TD's last season with Balt. Some good catches over 40 yds and a lot of 20 yard catches as an average. 1-year deal to keep the boat-a-float sorta speak. Wouldn't cost a lot.

 

2) Ayouk from SF. Get him for one of next years #2 and #5? He woudl fill the #1 requirement perfect.

 

Either scenario allows us to keep our drafy and fill the holes we need.

 

i would be disappointed with OBJ.  That would be one move I would not like, out of a lot of scenarios that are exciting to me.

 

One scenario, kind of a compromise, I just thought of that I like is - trade a 4th to Tenn for Dhop.  And we extend his reasonable contract (I think he is like $12-13M) for another year.  Tenn just brought in C Ridley and 1st rounder from last year.

 

Then draft similar to how we would have with Diggs - get one of the WRs with potential in the first two rounds.

[Warriorspikes51]

Could Spencer Brown be used like Cordy Glenn was?

 

 

 

 

 

 

10 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Suddenly you're breaking this down into two deals. That's just a form of spin.

 

You posed it as one deal. That's how I read it.

 

And no. The Bills should not take that.

 

Again, if they did that, they'd be paying $49M on this year's cap for Metcalf and Diggs elsewhere.

 

That major cap hit means we would have to leave holes unfilled. And a greatly reduced chance of bringing in other good players at reasonable cost because you've emptied the early parts of these two drafts. That's part of what this deal's results would be.

 

We'd have great WRs for the future, but be weaker in several places elsewhere. Deals aren't made in a vacuum. You can't ignore the Bills' cap and roster situation. As the cap and the roster currently stand, strong pass.

yea…because it’s with the same team. Seattle.  
 

what are you talking about? We have tons of future cap space. Diggs is off the books after this season.  Metcalf extension could be agreed to and backload the deal to fit him under the cap this year

 

what holes? Depth players?  They barely cost anything against the cap because of how the top 51 works.

Edited April 6 by Warriorspikes51

[Thurman#1]

19 hours ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

The question is do you trust Bills scouts and Beane to make the right choice.  Watkins was a Doug Whaley move, and hindsight being 20/20 he wasn't a great talent evaluator

If Beane feels strongly then he's going to make the move. I share some trepidation, but I share equal trepidation looking for another expensive FA to replace Diggs with added trepidation do to the amount it will cost cap wise while Allen's making his bank

 

 

While I see where you're coming from and I have some feelings in common with you, I think that that is NOT the question.

 

Also disagree with you about Whaley. He wasn't a bad talent evaluator. He was a bad overall strategist. The horrendous part of that move wasn't drafting Watkins. (Not that it turned out well, but at that time from having that pick, he was a reasonable pick.) If we hadn't picked him, he'd still have gone within the next couple of picks. He was widely considered to be as close to a sure thing as you can get.

 

The stupid part of that move was moving up to make the pick. That's the part of this that the academics tell you is very likely to raise your chances of an unsuccessful draft.

 

EVERYBODY makes bad picks. Including the absolute best scouting staff in the league. Even in the first round. It's part of the deal. Look at the Chiefs for one. Their 1st rounder last year played 218 snaps, without injury. DE Anudike-Uzomah totalled half a sack and 14 tackles. Now, it's way too early to say he's a bust. But was his first year a disappointment? The Chiefs won't say that, but yeah, he was. How about Edwards-Hilaire? Bad pick. Decent player, but a bad pick by a really good scouting staff.

 

EVERYBODY makes bad picks. Everybody. Drafting is not an exact science, it just isn't. Look at Cody Ford. Our scouts obviously really liked this guy. Thing is, you're going to make bad picks. So you understand that and you use best practices to maximize your chances.

 

And best practices are to NOT give away big value picks in trade-ups for non-QBs. (Again, see the Massey-Thaler study, "The Loser's Curse: Decision Making and Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft." Key findings:  "[The NFL draft] It is also a domain in which multiple psychological factors suggest that teams may overvalue the chance to pick early in the draft. Using archival data on draft-day trades, player performance, and compensation, we compare the market value of draft picks with the surplus value to teams provided by the drafted players. We find that top draft picks are significantly overvalued in a manner that is inconsistent with rational expectations and efficient markets, and consistent with psychological research." Massey and Thaler are extremely respected. Thaler has got a Nobel Prize. And the other studies in this are that have followed have all agreed.)

 

What all those bad WRs drafted in the first ten picks in the last ten years should teach us is NOT that you shouldn't draft WRs in the top ten. If you're already in the top ten, go ahead and draft one if you believe in him. It is that trading away premium assets to get higher lowers your chances of draft success.

 

You said the question is whether you trust the scouts. That's not the question. The question is should you make a trade-up of that size when ALL of the studies done on this question tell you the answer is that in this kind of situation you absolutely should not, because it lowers your chances of successful drafts.

 

It's certainly not impossible that we make a trade like this. But IMO they shouldn't, and I don't think they will.

 

You don't get into and win a Super Bowl by improving your wide receiver room. You do it by improving the team. The whole team.

 

'Nuff said by me in this thread. Have a great draft season, all.

 

 

Edited April 6 by Thurman#1

[JaCrispy]

On 4/4/2024 at 12:58 PM, Virgil said:

The deal that sticks out to me the most was for Edmunds.  That one was way out of left field, but it shows Beane will do whatever it takes to get his person.  

That move still pisses me off…I hated trading away valuable picks to take a LB…it’s moves like that, where Beane is careless with his assets, that have held the team back…He spends like a drunken sailor…

 

 

Edited April 6 by JaCrispy

[Beast]

On 4/4/2024 at 1:14 PM, Logic said:

While I would love a Justin Jefferson trade...he's going to command record-breaking money when he signs his extension, and I don't think Beane is ready to turn around after the Diggs ordeal and hand $30million+ to another receiver.

Rather, what I view as more likely is that he'd prefer to draft a rookie in round 1, because that player would be cost-controlled for five years, and would allow him to spend money rebuilding other parts of the roster that need it. 

The trade that makes the most sense to me is Chicago at 9 (they don't have a second rounder, and likely would be open to trading back and collecting more picks to build around presumptive first pick Caleb Williams). Something like our 1st round picks this year and next year, plus a 2nd and a 4th, would likely get this deal done. It would theoretically allow the Bills a shot at Rome Odunze (one of the "big three" WRs in this year's draft).

The other one that makes sense to me is Denver at 12. The Broncos may want to move back, collect more picks, and go after a Bo Nix type at quarterback. Something like our 1st round picks this year and next year plus a 2nd could get this done. This would theoretically allow the Bills a shot at Brian Thomas Jr, the next best receiver after the "big three".

Lastly, failing a move up, I could see the Bills either picking at 28 or moving back into the second round to add a third rounder. In this scenario, they'd draft a receiver in round two (the position is very deep in this draft), and then trade the newly acquired 3rd for a veteran receiver like Brandon Aiyuk. I don't necessarily see them going this route, but it wouldn't shock me.

You're right about one thing: Beane won't be standing pat at 28 and just doing nothing and using all 11 picks. He WILL be wheeling and dealing. It's a lead pipe lock.

If Brandon Beane spends two 1st round and 1 2nd round pick to trade up to get the 4th best receiver he should be fired on the spot. No questions asked. Kansas City didn’t give up that much trading up to our spot to get Mahomes.

 

The Chicago trade is even worse. 
 

You can’t possibly give up that much for a rookie wide receiver. EVER. Hell, you shouldn’t ever give up that much for a proven NFL wide receiver.

Edited April 6 by Beast

[Pete]

Listen to Tim Grahams description of what transpired after Jets loss.   Josh was distraught, and took the loss very hard.  Bills players consoled Josh, tried to cheer him up.  Dawkins said to Josh "17 for life."  Diggs whispered to Josh- "Josh responded "ITS ONLY ONE ***** LOSS!" and shunned away Diggs.

 

That is a microcosm of what kind of player has Bills DNA, and what player doesn't.

 

Dawkins aint going anywhere. Power to the Schnowman!

Edited April 6 by Pete

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

On 4/4/2024 at 12:58 PM, iccrewman112 said:

The Giants sure need OL help but I don’t see the Bills moving Dawkins he has generally be healthy at a position of need at with a recently redone deal. Also he played very well by most metrics  last year.

I don’t see it, but I didn’t see them trading Diggs either, so at this point it’s certainly worthy of consideration 

[In Summary]

Beane is a guy who believes he has a better chance hitting on a guy that he bundled picks for and moved up to get than hitting on at least one out of a greater numer of picks. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

On 4/5/2024 at 1:14 PM, Tipster19 said:

I don’t have time to figure out how to post a picture of Jefferson at Buffalo’s airport but I didn’t think it was him anyways so I confirmed it with my son who is a big LSU fan and he said that it’s definitely not Jefferson so scrap all that, I didn’t even want to say it but some here wanted to know why I thought Beane was ready to explode. With all that said I responded in Virgil’s previous post titled NFL Trade Chart-For Those Who Are Interested. Here’s what I think is very possible.

 

Thanks for posting this! Since the Diggs’ trade I’ve pondering Beane’s rationale and of course a trade up in the draft is almost a guarantee. Under that assumption I came up with some possibilities, 3 as a matter of fact.
 

When Beane gave up his 1st rd pick for Diggs it almost killed him. He was itching so bad during that draft. I remember him stopping just short of saying that he would never give up a 1st rder again unless it was in an extreme circumstance. Well, here we are! What I believe what Beane might be thinking is he can trade next year’s 1st rd pick this year because he has 2 2nd rd picks next year that he can pair up and get back into the 1st rd again. Just food for thought.

 

Scenario #1. Using the above chart Beane goes COMPLETELY all in and makes a trade with the Bears at #9. The Bears only have 4 picks in the entire draft so I could see them moving back to acquire more picks. This serves twofold, it gets them one of the top 3 WRs in the draft and it also leapfrogs the Jets at #10 who very well could be taking one of the top WRs themselves. My guess would be it’s for Rome Odunze.

 

Scenario #2. Once again Beane makes another leapfrog move and trades up with the Saints at #14 just before the Colts at #15. In this scenario it’s for LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr. Based on LSU WRs in the past (Chase & Jefferson) being so pro ready I believe that this is our best option for Diggs’ replacement. Git ‘er done Beanie!

 

Scenario #3. The Bills just stand pat at #28 and draft Georgia WR Ladd McConkey. Under this scenario I would think that the Bills would also make a trade for a veteran like Brandon Aiyuk. I won’t venture what the compensation would be but the Bills but I would imagine that Buffalo will have enough resources left to get a trade like this done. 
 

Personally I like Scenario #2 the best and that’s what I’m hoping for.

 

I am good with 2 or 3. #1 should be taken off the table completely. 

[Rockinon]

I honestly think Beane will trade this years 1st.......

 

 

 

To move down not up.

[ganesh]

On 4/4/2024 at 10:33 PM, Virgil said:

 

Was it?  Crap, my brain is broke.  I thought we traded back into the 1st for Edmunds

We had two 1st rounders that year.  One was our pick and the 2nd one is the one we got from KC for the Mahomes trade. 

 

Ours was the higher pick due to us making the playoffs.

 

We traded the 12th and two second round picks with Tampa Bay to move to 7 to get Allen.   we had to get in front of Arizona to draft Allen. 

 

The Giants were the first partner, but they balked when Barkley was available.

Denver was going to be the 2nd partner but they decided to draft Chubb.

Colts were always going to draft the Guard.

 

In between Cleveland picked QB and CB and the Jets picked their QB

[DCofNC]

The obvious move here is to package next year’s #1 to go up this year.  You will still have 2 second round picks next year so you can get into the bottom of the first again if you want or you could just look for value there in the second.   I could see a scenario where they try to get to say 12 or so with this years first and next years or add some more to go up higher.  A player trade generally will be done before the draft so everyone knows the cap consequences prior to any moves, so if it doesn’t happen soon, it’s not happening.  
 

My guess is they are hoping one of the WRs they like gets to ~10 and they can go get him.  I would guess, without looking at the chart as a guide, you are giving up this years first, next years first, the comp pick for Edmunds and something else to get up there.  If it’s for Nabers, sign me up. 

[MiracleAtRich1393]

7 hours ago, Rockinon said:

I honestly think Beane will trade this years 1st.......

 

 

 

To move down not up.

I think in a vacuum there are many trade downs I could get behind but not this year. There is no way in hell I want KC getting first crack at a WR

[BobbyC81]

On 4/4/2024 at 9:58 AM, Nephilim17 said:

I can't see Beane giving up capital to trade for a veteran WR. That is capital that could help us rise in the draft and get a young future star (one hopes).

My feeling is that after the cap purge they want some young players on cost-controlled contracts for a few years. So I don't see giving up a second for a 30-year-old guy who will want a chunk of money.

But I do see a trade up to the high teens or lows 20s (18-22ish) to secure a guy like Thomas.

EDIT: Sorry, I misread Shaw's post. He's suggesting that Beane gives up a good Bills vet to move up, not that we give up a pick to get a vet.

I don't see that, though. Do you want to take a chance by trading Dawkins? I don't think so. And who else is there to trade? Knox has too much dead money.

If they were going to do this trade of a vet, it should’ve been done before the start of the league year.  You had , Poyer and Morse as assets to deal rather than just letting them go.  Likely they tried but had little interest.

 

After some thought, I also better understand trading Diggs now if they were going to deal him.  With the WRs considered so highly for this draft, chances are most teams would’ve rather waited to see how the draft turned out and be less likely interested in dealing draft assets for Diggs and taking on his contract.  Having found an interested team, and having to deal late round picks along with Diggs, Beane may have had to bend over backwards to get the Texans to accept a deal.  There also may have not been any other serious teams.

 

Interesting also that the WR needy Giants, with ex-Bills at GM and head coach didn’t trade for Diggs.

 

Edited April 7 by BobbyC81

[Nephilim17]

21 minutes ago, BobbyC81 said:

Interesting also that the WR needy Giants, with ex-Bills at GM and head coach didn’t trade for Diggs.

 

Yes, very interesting indeed.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

On 4/4/2024 at 7:55 PM, Shaw66 said:

As I've tried to digest the hole left by Diggs' departure, I don't for a minute think that Beane is going to sit back and just do the best he can when his pick rolls around late in the first round.   That just isn't his style. 

 

We've often seen Beane move around in the first round, and I think we will see it again.   He's done little moves, of course, up a pick or two or three, but we've seen at least two big moves:   Cordy Glenn and picks to move up to Cinci's pick (followed by the trade with Denver to go up and get Josh), and the Bills' first round pick to get Diggs.   Two big draft-related moves to fill a hole.  

 

It caused me to wonder what kind of things Beane could be considering now.   Others of you will have much better ideas than I, and I don't really know how to gauge value, cap, and all the other things that need to be considered, but two thoughts came to mind.

 

Maybe the Vikings want to make a bold move to get up to the top of the draft.   Maybe they have a vision for the future of a rebuilt roster.  Maybe they don't want to write a big check for a receiver.  Would they trade Justin Jefferson for the Bills' #1 and some other consideration?  They did it with Diggs, why not again?   Is Aiyuk still on his first contract?   Who else has a proven receiver with a contract the Bills can afford for a year?

 

Or, more along the Cordy Glenn line, who's the quality starter the Bills might package with their first round pick to move up to the top 10?  Does Kromer like Van Demark so much that he'd be willing to part with Dion Dawkins.   Dion and the Bills #1 for the Giants' #1?   What other players are good enough to bring interest but not so good that they're untouchable?  

 

Whatever, we can be sure that Beane is doing some creative thinking.

I really don't think there's a player we have to give up in a deal for Jefferson most likely would have to be multiple firsts and that 2nd Rd pick to get Jefferson. 

[BobbyC81]

2 hours ago, MiracleAtRich1393 said:

I think in a vacuum there are many trade downs I could get behind but not this year. There is no way in hell I want KC getting first crack at a WR

Just saw a mock on NFL.com by MJD where he has KC getting Worthy, who he refers to as Tyreke Hill 2.0.  Ugh!

[Boatdrinks]

16 minutes ago, BobbyC81 said:

Just saw a mock on NFL.com by MJD where he has KC getting Worthy, who he refers to as Tyreke Hill 2.0.  Ugh!

Saw an ESPN mock last week that had the Bills drafting Worthy. None of these mocks mean a thing, really.