Beane's First-Round Deals

[ddaryl]

30 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Quick question: What do these players have in common? Kevin White, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (from Clemson to the Chargers), John Ross, Drake London and Sammy Watkins?

 

All WRs chosen in the top ten picks in the last ten years.

one.

 

 

 

 

The question is do you trust Bills scouts and Beane to make the right choice.  Watkins was a Doug Whaley move, and hindsight being 20/20 he wasn't a great talent evaluator

If Beane feels strongly then he's going to make the move. I share some trepidation, but I share equal trepidation looking for another expensive FA to replace Diggs with added trepidation do to the amount it will cost cap wise while Allen's making his bank

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Man, you frightened me there. I thought I'd misread the post. Went back and checked it. It's the 2024 1st rounder and the 2025 1st as well, plus the other picks.

 

For Brian Thomas, no I am not. Even throw in the right to pay Metcalf $18M and I'm not.

 

yes it's pick 28.....you are getting back 16 in the deal.   

 

Essentially it breaks down like this:

28, a 4th, 2025 2nd  for 16 (BTJ)
 

2025 1st, 2nd  for DK Metcalf 

Is that not fair value? 
 

[oldmanfan]

14 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

Miller was old and signed because we had spent obscene amount of cap space & draft capital on push rush & got nothing. 

 

We don't know what Diggs issues were. They could have been with Beane & management

We got a lot of sacks, just what we wanted, until the ACL.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

20 hours ago, iccrewman112 said:

The Giants sure need OL help but I don’t see the Bills moving Dawkins he has generally be healthy at a position of need at with a recently redone deal. Also he played very well by most metrics  last year.

 

Would probably be spencer brown if they moved either.  

[PBF81]

6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Saying Allen is rotting on the vine is perhaps the most ridiculously hyperbolic statement made on this board in recent memory.

 

Take it with a grain of salt.  Allen needs WRs.  

 

But the wailing and moaning here over us not having any good WRs apart from Diggs on Allen's watch, LOL, barring us taking a WR at 28th, and assuming that one works out well as a rookie, buckle up, it's going to be a laugh riot here.  

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

6 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Would probably be spencer brown if they moved either.  

 

perhaps a slight chance Collins was signed because Beane will use Spencer Brown like Cordy Glenn to jump up in Round 1  or as part of a package to a team that wants a starting OT in a move up ? 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

perhaps a slight chance Collins was signed because Beane will use Spencer Brown like Cordy Glenn to jump up in Round 1  or as part of a package to a team that wants a starting OT in a move up ? 

 

If you aren't planning to sign, or balking at the price?  I would think the giants would be the first team I would call.  

[Thurman#1]

23 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Oh really?  Weird!  How did he manage to reel in 17 TD's this past season and have the 2nd highest contested catch rate of the top 12 receivers in the class?
 

Not to mention his drop % was 2nd lowest  

But yea...he's just tall and fast  🙄

 

 

Did he say that he was JUST tall and fast? Or is that you just paraphrasing badly?

 

Nobody doubts his speed or his height, they're terrific, but he does have other good traits. But he's got some question marks also. He's not great at separation on short and mid-range routes, he's not a very sudden explosive cutter. And there are questions about how he'd handle parts of the route tree against NFL DBs.

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

If you aren't planning to sign, or balking at the price?  I would think the giants would be the first team I would call.  

 

Yes, if we target #6,  Joe Schoen could accept Brown instead of an additional 2nd & allow us to keep pick 60
 

28, 2025 1st, 2nd, Brown, 4th

[finn]

57 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

There are 3 WR's who are the top WR in most draft classes, plus BTJ who is probably the 2nd WR in most classes

Go after them if you have conviction on a specific player.   Enough playing around and being cautious 

Like Whaley went after Sammy Watkins? Two first rounders and fourth to move up four spots to get a player he had conviction on, as you put it, while passing on Mike Evans and Odell Beckham, who were both available in their original spot and ended up having far better careers. 

 

Not saying you never trade up. It's sometimes the right move, especially for a quarterback. Beane has moved up four times, for Allen, Edmunds, Elam and Kincaid. Given what he gave up, that's not a very good record. Allen was a slam dunk of course, and Kincaid looks great (although La Porta was available in their original slot). But Edmunds was no more than above average, and Elam, well...

[BeastMaster]

26 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Oh really?  Weird!  How did he manage to reel in 17 TD's this past season and have the 2nd highest contested catch rate of the top 12 receivers in the class?
 

Not to mention his drop % was 2nd lowest  

But yea...he's just tall and fast  🙄

I've watched the games (not all) and I've seen his highlights. Most of the time he just ran past defenders or caught a screen pass and got some YAC

 

He's thin, and he really didn't run any routes. He also had Nabers and Jayden Daniels on a top team

 

BTJ is a guy that is being looked at as a first rounder because of his measurables. The actual skill part of being a WR is something he hasn't shown a whole lot of.

 

Feel free to disagree, but nearly all the scouting reports say the same thing 

 

He's a project, and this team isn't looking for a guy to develop right now.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

15 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

yes it's pick 28.....you are getting back 16 in the deal.   

 

Essentially it breaks down like this:

28, a 4th, 2025 2nd  for 16 (BTJ)
 

2025 1st, 2nd  for DK Metcalf 

Is that not fair value? 
 

 

 

Suddenly you're breaking this down into two deals. That's just a form of spin.

 

You posed it as one deal. That's how I read it.

 

And no. The Bills should not take that.

 

Again, if they did that, they'd be paying $49M on this year's cap for Metcalf and Diggs elsewhere.

 

That major cap hit means we would have to leave holes unfilled. And a greatly reduced chance of bringing in other good players at reasonable cost because you've emptied the early parts of these two drafts. That's part of what this deal's results would be.

 

We'd have great WRs for the future, but be weaker in several places elsewhere. Deals aren't made in a vacuum. You can't ignore the Bills' cap and roster situation. As the cap and the roster currently stand, strong pass.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, BeastMaster said:

I've watched the games (not all) and I've seen his highlights. Most of the time he just ran past defenders or caught a screen pass and got some YAC

 

He's thin, and he really didn't run any routes. He also had Nabers and Jayden Daniels on a top team

 

BTJ is a guy that is being looked at as a first rounder because of his measurables. The actual skill part of being a WR is something he hasn't shown a whole lot of.

 

Feel free to disagree, but nearly all the scouting reports say the same thing 

 

He's a project, and this team isn't looking for a guy to develop right now.

 

 

 

I do like his ability to separate when plays break down FWIW... which happens frequently with Allen at QB. 

Just now, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Suddenly you're breaking this down into two deals. That's just a form of spin.

 

You posed it as one deal. That's how I read it.

 

And no. The Bills should not take that.

 

Again, if they did that, they'd be paying $49M on this year's cap for Metcalf and Diggs elsewhere.

 

That major cap hit means we would have to leave holes unfilled. And a greatly reduced chance of bringing in other good players at reasonable cost because you've emptied the early parts of these two drafts. That's part of what this deal's results would be.

 

We'd have great WRs for the future, but be weaker in several places elsewhere. Deals aren't made in a vacuum. You can't ignore the Bills' cap and roster situation. As the cap and the roster currently stand, strong pass.

 

I don't see any way we are adding a veteran through trade.  Maybe they grab someone post-draft or post-june when they free up some space, but it'd likely be just a 1yr type of stopgap. 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Using those picks to get a player who can be a top 5 WR with Allen  and another potentially elite WR  is  IMO well worth it  

The position is by far in desperate need of that talent level 

I agree with Thurm.  Giving up those picks has long-term consequences.  I wouldn't do it.

 

Plus, I wouldn't build a receiver room around Metcalf.  

[stinky finger]

20 hours ago, Logic said:

While I would love a Justin Jefferson trade...he's going to command record-breaking money when he signs his extension, and I don't think Beane is ready to turn around after the Diggs ordeal and hand $30million+ to another receiver.

Rather, what I view as more likely is that he'd prefer to draft a rookie in round 1, because that player would be cost-controlled for five years, and would allow him to spend money rebuilding other parts of the roster that need it. 

The trade that makes the most sense to me is Chicago at 9 (they don't have a second rounder, and likely would be open to trading back and collecting more picks to build around presumptive first pick Caleb Williams). Something like our 1st round picks this year and next year, plus a 2nd and a 4th, would likely get this deal done. It would theoretically allow the Bills a shot at Rome Odunze (one of the "big three" WRs in this year's draft).

The other one that makes sense to me is Denver at 12. The Broncos may want to move back, collect more picks, and go after a Bo Nix type at quarterback. Something like our 1st round picks this year and next year plus a 2nd could get this done. This would theoretically allow the Bills a shot at Brian Thomas Jr, the next best receiver after the "big three".

Lastly, failing a move up, I could see the Bills either picking at 28 or moving back into the second round to add a third rounder. In this scenario, they'd draft a receiver in round two (the position is very deep in this draft), and then trade the newly acquired 3rd for a veteran receiver like Brandon Aiyuk. I don't necessarily see them going this route, but it wouldn't shock me.

You're right about one thing: Beane won't be standing pat at 28 and just doing nothing and using all 11 picks. He WILL be wheeling and dealing. It's a lead pipe lock.

I like your thinking 

[SoMAn]

21 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

 What other players are good enough to bring interest but not so good that they're untouchable?  

 

Other than Josh, I don't think any player is 'untouchable'.  How about Matt Milano?  

 

Milano, the Bills first, and next year's 2nd to move into top 10?  Yeah, Milano is great, but it's the old 'best ability is availability' thing.   

 

Let's turn it around with this hypothetical: If the Bills had a game wrecking WR like Jefferson, would they trade him for a LB?  I think most of us would say "hell no".

 

We love Milano, but you have to give up something to get something in trade of equal value. The Bills/Beane are trying to get back to cap manageability. They won't want to give away too many future draft picks.

If it's 86ing Milano that can get us that coveted receiver, I'm all for it.

 

Edited April 5 by SoMAn

[Shaw66]

18 minutes ago, SoMAn said:

 

I understand your logic, but I wouldn't do it.  Teams need stud players, and I wouldn't trade one just to have a shot at another. 

[SoMAn]

30 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I understand your logic, but I wouldn't do it.  Teams need stud players, and I wouldn't trade one just to have a shot at another. 

I get it - the draft can be a crapshoot. Everyone thought Watkins was going to be a superstar. But, keeping Milano on the field for the entire season is also a roll of the dice, judging by his history.  

The defense fared decently last year without Milano. Of course I would hate to lose him, but if there was a good chance at a generational WR to pair with our generational QB, I'd pull the trigger if it were up to me.

[Einstein's Dog]

3 hours ago, mrags said:

100%. He doesn’t make a move like this unless he’s got something planned. I really think it’s one of 3 options. 
 

1. He packages a whole bunch to move up around the 10th pick for Nabors or Odunze

 

2. He packages less to move into the teens for Thomas Jr. 

 

3. He packages some to move back Into the 2nd rd to grab a 2nd WR after having already picked one in the 1st rd. 

You left out a couple of options:

4.  The extremely low percentage, but Einstein Dog special, move down from 28 and select two of McConkey/K Coleman/Legette/T Franklin/Worthy.  Low percentage and this place would go nuts, but has its merits.  You get two tries at the eager, Josh allegiant, culture fitting, cost controlled, piece for a young offensive juggernaut core that will be in place for years to come.  Downside - uncertainty and downgraded odds for 2024 season.

 

5.  Much higher percentage:  Trade.  The big splash move would obviously be J Jefferson.  What a move.  But there are also others, Aiyuk, or others we don't even know about like DK Metcalf.

[Dillenger4]

15 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

You left out a couple of options:

4.  The extremely low percentage, but Einstein Dog special, move down from 28 and select two of McConkey/K Coleman/Legette/T Franklin/Worthy.  Low percentage and this place would go nuts, but has its merits.  You get two tries at the eager, Josh allegiant, culture fitting, cost controlled, piece for a young offensive juggernaut core that will be in place for years to come.  Downside - uncertainty and downgraded odds for 2024 season.

 

5.  Much higher percentage:  Trade.  The big splash move would obviously be J Jefferson.  What a move.  But there are also others, Aiyuk, or others we don't even know about like DK Metcalf.

Good points. I am dreaming about an Ayouk trade. I think JJ is way too far fetched for our current position but it would be ideal.

Realistically speaking, I think Beane moves on one of the 2 following scenarios:

 

1) OBJ - he had 550yds and 3 TD's last season with Balt. Some good catches over 40 yds and a lot of 20 yard catches as an average. 1-year deal to keep the boat-a-float sorta speak. Wouldn't cost a lot.

 

2) Ayouk from SF. Get him for one of next years #2 and #5? He woudl fill the #1 requirement perfect.

 

Either scenario allows us to keep our drafy and fill the holes we need.