Beane's First-Round Deals

[Shaw66]

As I've tried to digest the hole left by Diggs' departure, I don't for a minute think that Beane is going to sit back and just do the best he can when his pick rolls around late in the first round.   That just isn't his style. 

 

We've often seen Beane move around in the first round, and I think we will see it again.   He's done little moves, of course, up a pick or two or three, but we've seen at least two big moves:   Cordy Glenn and picks to move up to Cinci's pick (followed by the trade with Denver to go up and get Josh), and the Bills' first round pick to get Diggs.   Two big draft-related moves to fill a hole.  

 

It caused me to wonder what kind of things Beane could be considering now.   Others of you will have much better ideas than I, and I don't really know how to gauge value, cap, and all the other things that need to be considered, but two thoughts came to mind.

 

Maybe the Vikings want to make a bold move to get up to the top of the draft.   Maybe they have a vision for the future of a rebuilt roster.  Maybe they don't want to write a big check for a receiver.  Would they trade Justin Jefferson for the Bills' #1 and some other consideration?  They did it with Diggs, why not again?   Is Aiyuk still on his first contract?   Who else has a proven receiver with a contract the Bills can afford for a year?

 

Or, more along the Cordy Glenn line, who's the quality starter the Bills might package with their first round pick to move up to the top 10?  Does Kromer like Van Demark so much that he'd be willing to part with Dion Dawkins.   Dion and the Bills #1 for the Giants' #1?   What other players are good enough to bring interest but not so good that they're untouchable?  

 

Whatever, we can be sure that Beane is doing some creative thinking.

Edited April 5 by Shaw66

[Virgil]

The deal that sticks out to me the most was for Edmunds.  That one was way out of left field, but it shows Beane will do whatever it takes to get his person.  

[iccrewman112]

The Giants sure need OL help but I don’t see the Bills moving Dawkins he has generally be healthy at a position of need at with a recently redone deal. Also he played very well by most metrics  last year.

[Nephilim17]

I can't see Beane giving up capital to trade for a veteran WR. That is capital that could help us rise in the draft and get a young future star (one hopes).

My feeling is that after the cap purge they want some young players on cost-controlled contracts for a few years. So I don't see giving up a second for a 30-year-old guy who will want a chunk of money.

But I do see a trade up to the high teens or lows 20s (18-22ish) to secure a guy like Thomas.

EDIT: Sorry, I misread Shaw's post. He's suggesting that Beane gives up a good Bills vet to move up, not that we give up a pick to get a vet.

I don't see that, though. Do you want to take a chance by trading Dawkins? I don't think so. And who else is there to trade? Knox has too much dead money.

Edited April 4 by Nephilim17

[Sweats]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

As I've tried to digest the hole left by Diggs' departure, I don't for a minute think that Beane is going to sit back and just do the best he can when his pick rolls around late in the first round.   That just isn't his style. 

 

We've often seen Diggs move around in the first round, and I think we will see it again.   He's done little moves, of course, up a pick or two or three, but we've seen at least two big moves:   Cordy Glenn and picks to move up to Cinci's pick (followed by the trade with Denver to go up and get Josh), and the Bills' first round pick to get Diggs.   Two big draft-related moves to fill a hole.  

 

It caused me to wonder what kind of things Beane could be considering now.   Others of you will have much better ideas than I, and I don't really know how to gauge value, cap, and all the other things that need to be considered, but two thoughts came to mind.

 

Maybe the Vikings want to make a bold move to get up to the top of the draft.   Maybe they have a vision for the future of a rebuilt roster.  Maybe they don't want to write a big check for a receiver.  Would they trade Justin Jefferson for the Bills' #1 and some other consideration?  They did it with Diggs, why not again?   Is Aiyuk still on his first contract?   Who else has a proven receiver with a contract the Bills can afford for a year?

 

Or, more along the Cordy Glenn line, who's the quality starter the Bills might package with their first round pick to move up to the top 10?  Does Kromer like Van Demark so much that he'd be willing to part with Dion Dawkins.   Dion and the Bills #1 for the Giants' #1?   What other players are good enough to bring interest but not so good that they're untouchable?  

 

Whatever, we can be sure that Beane is doing some creative thinking.

 

 

 

All good points.

The bolded is a scenario i've thought about probably a thousand times already......Minny did it before, would they do it again?

I, for one, would love to have JJ on this team, however, seeing the way Beane is, he is probably done with high WR's from other teams and will probably want to get his in the draft this year, but just not where everyone thinks.......my gut feeling

[boater]

I just hope the College Scouts are on the ball this year. We need them at their best more than ever before.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

4 minutes ago, Virgil said:

The deal that sticks out to me the most was for Edmunds.  That one was way out of left field, but it shows Beane will do whatever it takes to get his person.  

They only moved from 22 to 16 to get up for Edmunds. It wasn’t all that much of an investment but I do agree with your sentiment. 

[Virgil]

Just now, EmotionallyUnstable said:

They only moved from 22 to 16 to get up for Edmunds. It wasn’t all that much of an investment but I do agree with your sentiment. 

 

Was it?  Crap, my brain is broke.  I thought we traded back into the 1st for Edmunds

[The Jokeman]

6 minutes ago, iccrewman112 said:

The Giants sure need OL help but I don’t see the Bills moving Dawkins he has generally be healthy at a position of need at with a recently redone deal. Also he played very well by most metrics  last year.

The Giants could also use some help at TE if Waller retires which been rumored. I'm not saying we could get Knox and #28 for #6 but it's an interesting thought. Personally I wouldn't make the trade. 

Edited April 4 by The Jokeman

[Logic]

While I would love a Justin Jefferson trade...he's going to command record-breaking money when he signs his extension, and I don't think Beane is ready to turn around after the Diggs ordeal and hand $30million+ to another receiver.

Rather, what I view as more likely is that he'd prefer to draft a rookie in round 1, because that player would be cost-controlled for five years, and would allow him to spend money rebuilding other parts of the roster that need it. 

The trade that makes the most sense to me is Chicago at 9 (they don't have a second rounder, and likely would be open to trading back and collecting more picks to build around presumptive first pick Caleb Williams). Something like our 1st round picks this year and next year, plus a 2nd and a 4th, would likely get this deal done. It would theoretically allow the Bills a shot at Rome Odunze (one of the "big three" WRs in this year's draft).

The other one that makes sense to me is Denver at 12. The Broncos may want to move back, collect more picks, and go after a Bo Nix type at quarterback. Something like our 1st round picks this year and next year plus a 2nd could get this done. This would theoretically allow the Bills a shot at Brian Thomas Jr, the next best receiver after the "big three".

Lastly, failing a move up, I could see the Bills either picking at 28 or moving back into the second round to add a third rounder. In this scenario, they'd draft a receiver in round two (the position is very deep in this draft), and then trade the newly acquired 3rd for a veteran receiver like Brandon Aiyuk. I don't necessarily see them going this route, but it wouldn't shock me.

You're right about one thing: Beane won't be standing pat at 28 and just doing nothing and using all 11 picks. He WILL be wheeling and dealing. It's a lead pipe lock.

[BBFL]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

While I would love a Justin Jefferson trade...he's going to command record-breaking money when he signs his extension, and I don't think Beane is ready to turn around after the Diggs ordeal and hand $30million+ to another receiver.

Rather, what I view as more likely is that he'd prefer to draft a rookie in round 1, because that player would be cost-controlled for five years, and would allow him to spend money rebuilding other parts of the roster that need it. 

The trade that makes the most sense to me is Chicago at 9 (they don't have a second rounder, and likely would be open to trading back and collecting more picks to build around presumptive first pick Caleb Williams). Something like our 1st round picks this year and next year, plus a 2nd and a 4th, would likely get this deal done. It would theoretically allow the Bills a shot at Rome Odunze (one of the "big three" WRs in this year's draft).

The other one that makes sense to me is Denver at 12. The Broncos may want to move back, collect more picks, and go after a Bo Nix type at quarterback. Something like our 1st round picks this year and next year plus a 2nd could get this done. This would theoretically allow the Bills a shot at Brian Thomas Jr, the next best receiver after the "big three".

Lastly, failing a move up, I could see the Bills either picking at 28 or moving back into the second round to add a third rounder. In this scenario, they'd draft a receiver in round two (the position is very deep in this draft), and then trade the newly acquired 3rd for a veteran receiver like Brandon Aiyuk. I don't necessarily see them going this route, but it wouldn't shock me.

You're right about one thing: Beane won't be standing pat at 28 and just doing nothing and using all 11 picks. He WILL be wheeling and dealing. It's a lead pipe lock.

So to piggyback off the Aiyuk thread that’s ongoing, if you’re trading at least one first rounder possibly 2, who are you trading for?

 

Jefferson or Aiyuk? Both want $ in the 30m range…

 

But I’m in the same boat as you. Don’t see them giving up the drafts picks and the cash either will command. 
 

Chicago is as good a trade spot as any as they surely want more picks this year… 

[Reed83HOF]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

While I would love a Justin Jefferson trade...he's going to command record-breaking money when he signs his extension, and I don't think Beane is ready to turn around after the Diggs ordeal and hand $30million+ to another receiver.

Rather, what I view as more likely is that he'd prefer to draft a rookie in round 1, because that player would be cost-controlled for five years, and would allow him to spend money rebuilding other parts of the roster that need it. 

Jefferson's age is what's key(and the fact he is a proven 1 and likely the best wr in the game) that is what makes him the only vet WR I would trade for and be willing to eat the contract he will get.

 

This is such a glaring hole, beane is certainly swinging big here in the draft, if JJ can't be had.

[Logic]

Just now, Reed83HOF said:

 

This is such a glaring hole, beane is certainly swinging big here in the draft, if JJ can't be had.

I agree. When he said in his press conference yesterday "I hope people know...I'm competitive as hell", I took it as confirmation of what I already knew: Beane doesn't believe in "rebuilding", and he's certainly not envisioning wasting a year of Allen's prime by saying "we're waving the white flag this year". He WILL do what's necessary to replenish his WR corps, I'm certain of it.

[HomeskillitMoorman]

13 minutes ago, Logic said:

I agree. When he said in his press conference yesterday "I hope people know...I'm competitive as hell", I took it as confirmation of what I already knew: Beane doesn't believe in "rebuilding", and he's certainly not envisioning wasting a year of Allen's prime by saying "we're waving the white flag this year". He WILL do what's necessary to replenish his WR corps, I'm certain of it.

 

I would argue not upgrading at HC is contradictory of this. But that might not be something he has the power to do. 

 

I do believe he's going to try to boost the WR corps though and I don't think he wants to just punt a season away. 

[Alphadawg7]

This is a top heavy OT draft, we aren't moving Dawkins to get a WR early and then go fishing late day 2 or day 3 after the fall off in the draft at OT to get one to protect our quarter billion dollar QB.  

Edited April 4 by Alphadawg7

[julian]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

This isnt a great OL draft, we aren't moving Dawkins.  

Is my sarcasm meter broken ? lol because I’m under the impression it’s one of the best OL drafts in history.

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, julian said:

Is my sarcasm meter broken ? lol because I’m under the impression it’s one of the best OL drafts in history.

 

I meant at OT...Isn't it top heavy and then takes a drop?  I mean if we are going WR early, I don't want to be fishing for a tackle on day 2 or 3 to protect our quarter of a billion dollar QB.  I could be wrong, as busy as I have been this year I haven't spent a lot of time on the positions I am not expecting us to be in the market for on draft day, at least early.  So I've mostly focused on WR, secondary, and DL.  

 

 

Edited April 4 by Alphadawg7

[julian]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I meant at OT...Isn't it top heavy and then takes a drop?  I mean if we are going WR early, I don't want to be fishing for a tackle on day 2 or 3 to protect our quarter of a billion dollar QB. 

Yeah I agree with you and want no part of moving Dawkins, and you might be correct on the OT being top heavy but as a hole all I’ve heard is this OL class is stacked.

[JerseyBills]

Ayuik and Jefferson both become FAs next year when that Diggs $ comes off the books and Tres $ becomes available after June 1st

[SoonerBillsFan]

One thing in the back of my mind and please correct me if I'm wrong.  Didn't Beane once say he had a hard time evaluating WR talent?  I swear I read or heard something like that.

 

That said...I could see him going ahead and trading #28 etc. For Aiyuk or Jefferson.