How would you construct the 2024 Bills WR Room?

[nosejob]

3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Trade our 1st this year and a 4th next year for Aiyuk.  Draft the best WR available in round 2.  Next year you'll have a 1st and two 2nd's to address likely needs (CB, DE, and OT).

I like this idea, however, what about trading next years 1st and 4th for Aiyuk while moving to pick 31 and getting pick 90. That would be my take it or leave it deal to SF. Good luck getting a 1st for him with all the WRs in this class.

If there's a Chop, an Olineman, maybe a Nix or Pennix that the Niners want, then there's the offer.

 

BTW, Then I'm taking McConkey at 31 and targeting Sweat with the 2nd.

Edited April 4 by nosejob

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Okay, that’s a fair opinion. I’m not looking for “a good guy.” I’m looking for a top of the depth chart, low risk, stud. 
 

The goal of this wasn’t to say what we wouldn’t do. There’s plenty of that going on here already. This was, “who would be your 6 or 7 WRs on the roster this year and how did you get them?” Obviously we don’t know who will be on the board at 28 but we can use reasonable assumptions. Harrison won’t be, Pearsall will be, Mitchell might be. Be reasonable but lay out what your group would look like

 

This is probably going to sound heretical but...go light on the WRs.

 

Hear me out:

A lot of Brady's wrinkles were off of what Shanahan was running in San Fran. And ho boy, does Shanahan love his 21, 22 and 13 personnel.

 

I mean, if I am going to look at the skill position players the Bills have right now that differentiate them (explosive or what is different from most NFL teams), this is what I come up with:

James Cook (Use analogous to CMC)

Curtis Samuel (a poor man's Deebo Samuel)

Khalil Shakir (great hands, great separation, great YAC)

Kincaid (great ability to get open, one of the more surehanded tight ends in the league)

Gilliam (one of the better FBs in the league)

 

The more I look, the more the remaining pieces look like what Shanahan has been doing. Maybe the skill pieces are not quite as good, but with Allen to make plays, I think the Bills could mow down the increasingly lighter defenses of the league.

 

So, how would I construct the room, based on what the team has now and what I think they are likely to acquire?

Curtis Samuel: starting Y receiver, can be used as moveable chess piece in slot of backfield

Shakir: starting slot receiver, Y receiver on plays when Samuel is in the backfield

Justin Shorter: starting X (weakside) receiver, pending a rookie fighting him for the job

[Yet to be drafted high round rookie]: Competition for X receiver, ideally taking the job from Shorter

[Yet to be drafted mid round rookie]/Isabella/Hollins/Thompson: fight out for depth and ST roles for 2 spots

 

That would get the Bills 6 WR, with my ideal groupings of [high impact rookie], Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Cook as a base set, modified with swapping out Cook for Knox on obvious pass downs, and Kincaid for heavy run sets.

 

 

 

[Gregg]

4 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

Stay at 28. Draft a WR. The WR class is loaded no need to give up next year 1st. 

 

Especially with this being a deep draft class at WR. Look at last year as an example. The Rams drafted Puka Nacua in the 5TH ROUND, and he went out and had 105 receptions for 1,486 yards with 6 TD's. The pressure is on Beane to upgrade at WR obviously but as the Rams proved you can find them in the later rounds.

[ddaryl]

I think there is a strong possibility of a major move upwards in this draft for a top WR.

I also feel Beane has a handshake deal in place to make a move to #4 or #6.

Add in the fact that our 2025 Cap space is large we can fill some holes through FA in 2025


the WRs in this draft are deep but after the 1st 4 come off the board the rest of the field looks like rock solid #2s or field stretchers. We need a stud #1 to compliment Allen and I don't feel accepting whomever is left at #28 or in the 2nd round will fill hole we have at the #1 WR position, and a #1 WR is not on our roster today. We have solid players who will make an impact but not a #1

[Warriorspikes51]

DK Metcalf 

Xavier Worthy
Xavier Legette 

Curtis Samuel

Khalil Shakir 

Max Hollins 

 

😎  😆 because  it's Angels in the outfield   "hey, it could happen!"  

[wolfpack78]

Take a flier on Michael Thomas on a one year prove it deal.  

[Warriorspikes51]

8 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

I think there is a strong possibility of a major move upwards in this draft for a top WR.

I also feel Beane has a handshake deal in place to make a move to #4 or #6.

Add in the fact that our 2025 Cap space is large we can fill some holes through FA in 2025


the WRs in this draft are deep but after the 1st 4 come off the board the rest of the field looks like rock solid #2s or field stretchers. We need a stud #1 to compliment Allen and I don't feel accepting whomever is left at #28 or in the 2nd round will fill hole we have at the #1 WR position, and a #1 WR is not on our roster today. We have solid players who will make an impact but not a #1

 

I could see Beane having a potential deal with AZ for MHJ or NYG for Nabers 

If it's NYG for #6, there's a chance we could keep pick 60   (28, 128, 2025 1st, 2nd, 4th)  
 

Could also target 9-12 range for Odunze  (28, 2025 1st, 2nd) 

 

Come away with an Alpha in Nabers / Odunze  and maybe a guy like Franklin / Pearsall / Polk at 60
 

Edited April 4 by Warriorspikes51

[billieve420]

If it is small trade up to get the guy you want fine. However, no to moving up into the Top 5 for a WR. I am only giving up huge draft haul when looking for a QB. Other than that no to any other position. I would rather trade picks for a veteran WR at that point who actually has performed at the NFL level.

[nosejob]

48 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It can't go down by tomorrow. Aiyuk is on a 5th year option at $14m. That means to trade for him we'd need to be able to absorb that contract (even if we then immediately extend him and lower the hit) and we can't. We can't extend him until he is on our roster. He can't be on our roster unless we can absorb the current contract. 

 

Could he do a 1 year extension with SF, to lower his hit to nothing this year on the basis he has a gentleman's agreement that the Bills would immediately re-do that deal again? Possible, but unlikely. 

How about a 14 mil. signing bonus?

[SCBills]

Shakir

Samuel

RD1 Pick (Around 28)

RD2 Pick (Trade up)

Hollins

Shorter

 

OR

 

Shakir

Samuel

Nabers (big trade up)

Vet WR not on roster currently

Hollins

Shorter 

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, 518Buffalo said:

I'm firmly in the Packers model camp of adding WR talent through the draft. I would love to draft the best WR at 28 or even trade back into the 2nd, and then pick up another in the 4th to compete with Shorter for the last active roster spot. I wouldn't be opposed to Beane getting aggressive if there's a guy he really likes and he's only giving up one of our first or MIN 2nd next year, but with the roster retool we just went through the focus should be on maximizing Josh's 2nd window which to me means putting rookie-scale WRs around him. I think even without a true #1 next year, between Kincaid/Shakir/Samuel/Cook/rookie WR there is solid enough depth for Josh to work with if he can perform at the level we expect him to. I mean hell Mahomes just won 2 SBs without a top WR.

 

Shakir

Samuel

1st or 2nd round WR

Hollins

4th round WR

Shorter/Isabella

 

Don't really care what the Packers did with their WR group...they've accomplished little in the playoffs even with Rodgers going back years.  They are in no way a blueprint for how to build an offense and even after investing more at WR, it was too little too late.  If there's a similarity to Buffalo, it's that they didn't support their franchise QB with what it takes to build a SB caliber offense.     

 

This sort of evaluation above values their quantity too highly as opposed to quality.  This is only realized when the season starts and guys like Shakir and Samuel are elevated to more prominent roles they cannot equal previous production.  It's like Davis a few years ago going from being the WR3 and people just assuming he'd produce as a WR2.  He never did.

 

And then there's the assumption that younger players will improve.  Davis never really did nor has Knox.  I like Kincaid, but it's no guarantee that a 2nd year player breaks out.  You don't pin your hopes on young players who are unproven, while increasing their role.  It's why one of the issues moving Diggs is that they didn't have a plan aside from drafting someone.    

 

Let's assume they get into position to take one of the top WR's.  Josh's top targets next year will include that rookie, Samuel (who is a career 10.7 ypc guy), 2nd year man Kincaid, Shakir who is a tweener type WR, and PS caliber types.  To me, even with the trade, their planning to support Josh is highly questionable.   

[Warriorspikes51]

16 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Shakir

Samuel

RD1 Pick (Around 28)

RD2 Pick (Trade up)

Hollins

Shorter

 

OR

 

Shakir

Samuel

Nabers (big trade up)

Vet WR not on roster currently

Hollins

Shorter 

 

Nabers is immediately the best WR on this team 

[SCBills]

2 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Nabers is immediately the best WR on this team 

 

Oh, agreed .. that wasn't in order of talent.

 

Nabers might be the most talented WR we've ever had here.. in Bills history, should we make the move. 

[GunnerBill]

29 minutes ago, nosejob said:

How about a 14 mil. signing bonus?

 

That isn't the contract you are trading for though. That is the point. You can't adjust the contract before he is on your team and he can't be on your team unless you can absorb the contract without being over the cap. 

 

The ONLY way of doing it is getting him to sign a new deal with the 49ers, and trusting them and the Bills that they will still trade him and the Bills will immediately re-do that deal again. And that kind of thing doesn't happen. 

[Nephilim17]

I can see a trade up for a WR but I don't think we have or will spend the capital to get to Harrison. I'd say slim but possible chance of trading to around 10-12 if one of the other top two guys are there and they love him, or a very good chance of trading to high teens or low 20s to snag Thomas. I think if Beane really likes Thomas he doesn't chance waiting till 28 and will spend a bit of capital for insurance.

So for all the experts...

Between Nabers, Odunze and Thomas, is there a huge gap between the first two and Thomas? I like size here and so I'm not sure about Nabers.

I think I read Odunze has a higher ceiling than Nabers — true?

Then there's Mitchell. Not as polished but has traits as well. How do you rank and differentiate those 3 or maybe 4 guys? Are Nabers and/or Odunze that much better than Thomas where the upside is worth losing next years first and second and whatever it takes?

[nosejob]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That isn't the contract you are trading for though. That is the point. You can't adjust the contract before he is on your team and he can't be on your team unless you can absorb the contract without being over the cap. 

 

The ONLY way of doing it is getting him to sign a new deal with the 49ers, and trusting them and the Bills that they will still trade him and the Bills will immediately re-do that deal again. And that kind of thing doesn't happen. 

Well he is the only trade scenario I would consider. So, give me (28) Ladd and Legette. Two good complimentary guys....somehow.

[hondo in seattle]

Andre Reed, Eric Moulds, Bobby Chandler, Lee Evans, Elbert "Golden Wheels" Dubinion...

 

Minus that, I'm good with Kirby.  But being in Cap Hell sucks.  We have too many holes to fill, including at WR, and not enough money/picks to do everything we need to do.   It's hard to imagine how Beane will fix all this.  He's the one who got us to this dire point.  Let's see if he can get us someplace better by September as he says.   

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Look, I know Bleacher Report isn't really serious, but their package for Aiyuk to the Bills is our 1st and a 5th. I just did a thing about how the Bills look like an excellent fit make a variation on what Shanahan is doing with the Niners. I would make that trade in a heartbeat.

[nosejob]

1 hour ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Look, I know Bleacher Report isn't really serious, but their package for Aiyuk to the Bills is our 1st and a 5th. I just did a thing about how the Bills look like an excellent fit make a variation on what Shanahan is doing with the Niners. I would make that trade in a heartbeat.

I love the BR draft profiles. Seems pretty thorough, easy to navigate and seems to maybe give more realistic selection projections....and my favorite part, pro comparisons.

[eball]

5 hours ago, billieve420 said:

If it is small trade up to get the guy you want fine. However, no to moving up into the Top 5 for a WR. I am only giving up huge draft haul when looking for a QB. Other than that no to any other position. I would rather trade picks for a veteran WR at that point who actually has performed at the NFL level.

The argument for doing it is the rookie contract. If you believe it is a can’t-miss player it is attractive.