Diggs trade aftermath...what this means for the offense, draft, other WR's still here...

[5ths the charm]

You have to know Beane is getting ready to trade up.  He can't stay still, he loves to make deals.  Trouble is, moving for someone that doesn't reflect the immediate value of making the trade.  Trading next years #1 better bring us a Josh Allen type or why give up 2 very good players (#1 this year and #1 next year) for one that we have to be 100% right on.  We stay still and we at a minimum get a top 4 DE, top 7 WR, Top 4 DT, Top 5 DB or top 6 OT.  We could stay or trade back and still get the best Guard, best Center, best Safety, best RB, best ILB in this draft.  

[SoTier]

18 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

I’m sorry but to say the Bills are going to be better on offense without Diggs and Davis is crazy too me. I like Kincaid and Shakir but you’re not going to convince me having Diggs on the field didn’t open up things for them. I think Kincaid will be a stud for sure…but Shakir let’s pump the breaks on that. 

Josh without Diggs on the field is still an unknown. Just a lot of question marks on the offensive side of the ball right now to say they are going to be better. 

 

Shakir is coming into his third season in 2024, and usually that's when WRs who aren't top prospects from the best programs develop into good NFL wideouts if  they have the talent.   I don't think that Beane would have made the trade if the Bills coaching staff wasn't confident that Shakir can take up some of the production loss from not having Diggs.   

 

Beane doesn't strike me as a knee-jerk or fly-by-the-seat-of-his-pants type guy.  He's a forward thinker and a planner, so his focus is long-term ... which is really what a team should want with a GM.  Leave the short-term focus to the HC.    Look at last season when the consensus among fans was that the Bills were going into the season without a real replacement for Tremaine Edmunds because the new starter in his spot was some second-year kid named Terrel Bernard who wasn't a first round pick and had only played in a couple of games.   Surprise, surprise.  Beane realized that fairly early on that Edmunds wasn't what they wanted/needed  in a MLB, so he drafted a replacement really before the fans were even thinking about the "problem".   I think Bernard made more plays in his first game than Edmunds made during the entire 2022 season, and all the angst over the Bills supposed hole at LB faded away.

 

The Bills offense will look different than in past years without Diggs, but that doesn't mean that it won't be as productive.   Allen needs receiving options, and he'll have them by September, although not necessarily a WR1 as good as Diggs in his prime.  It's also possible that "the hole at WR" goes the way of the "hole at LB".

[Big Turk]

I think a key point to remember is the Bills will be clearing over $10 million post June 1st once White's cap number hits and I would suspect Beane will actively be looking to use that cap space to add to the WR room, especially via trade. Would not be surprised to see Aiyuk a target. They could replace Diggs contract with a new one for him and be better off long term and possibly immediately as well.

 

Interesting note...

 

The #1 WR in yards/target in the NFL last year for any WR with more than 50 targets?  Brandon Aiyuk...on 106 targets.

 

The #1 WR in yards/target in the NFL last year for any WR with more than 40 targets? Khalil Shakir.  Aiyuk was 2nd.

 

Don't discount a massive jump this season from Shakir to a potential 1,000 yard WR.  His rookie season he led the NFL in yards/separation per route run against man coverage. I think he is in line to become a major factor in this offense.

Edited April 4 by Big Turk

[JustAnotherBillsFan]

17 hours ago, Ya Digg? said:

....guess it's time I change my screen name

Ya Dugg?

[hondo in seattle]

I am just pondering here...

 

We know Diggs is an excellent route-runner.  Yet we all saw that he didn't get separation with consistency last year.  Somewhere I saw a chart showing Diggs as below the NFL average in separation yards in 2023.  And Josh's passer rating when throwing to Diggs (or Davis) wasn't good.  Were teams defending Diggs differently last year than they did in the past?  Did he lose a step?  Was it poor play design and calling?  

 

When we first got Diggs, he was a deep threat.  Yet last year Josh didn't connect deep a lot with Diggs.  Because of 2-high zones?  Or is the anonymous NFL coach who said Diggs is not a deep threat any more accurate?  

 

Too often last season Josh had nowhere to throw the ball.  Either our receivers sucked, or our OC sucked, or both.  I tended to blame our OCs,  but - with the Bills jettisoning both Davis and Diggs - I'm wondering how much Beane and the coaches blame them instead?  

[Starr-Bills]

Chicago at 9 has only 4 pics, they will get their new QB at #1 and maybe they hang around at 9 to get a WR but with only 4 picks and having picked up KA, I think they can be moved back...

BEARS (4)

2-Round 1: Nos. 1 overall (from Panthers), 9

1-Round 3: No. 75

1-Round 4: No. 122 (from Eagles)

 

We send Knox (has experience with a young raw QB can help the transition),  #28 and a few mid to late round pics (say 4-128, 5-144 and 6-200 this year) so Chicago can fill out a roster on the cheap and we get #9 so we can draft one of the two best WRs left ( I don't think NE takes one, Chargers will obviously since they let Keenan Allen go... to the bears. This works for the Bears, two experienced receiving targets and some mid to late round talent to fill out the roster, bills get more salary relief (Knox especially for a player who will be struggling to get playing time from Kincaid, and we don't need all those camp/PS players from the late rounds of our draft.

 

BILLS (10)

1-Round 1: No. 28 overall

1-Round 2: No. 60

2-Round 4: Nos. 128, 133

3-Round 5: Nos. 144 (from Bears), 160 (from Packers), 163

2-Round 6: Nos. 200 (from Cowboys through Texans), 204

1-Round 7: No. 248

 

Mock Draft 3.0

https://www.nfl.com/news/lance-zierlein-2024-nfl-mock-draft-3-0-giants-trade-up-for-qb-drake-maye-wr-ladd-mcconkey-to-chiefs

 

Draft picks by team:

https://www.nfl.com/news/2024-nfl-draft-every-team-s-full-set-of-picks

[GASabresIUFan]

https://theathletic.com/5389671/2024/04/04/buffalo-bills-stefon-diggs-trade-texans/

 

Quote

 

Which receiver or pass catcher currently on the team can benefit most from this trade?

Buscaglia: I appreciate the “currently on the team” piece of the equation because this wide receiver room is very much a “to be determined,” with a big investment in the draft with an early pick as a likely outcome. For now, it’s probably Kincaid. Allen got very comfortable with Kincaid once Dawson Knox had to miss multiple weeks with an injury, which pushed Kincaid forward as one of their best offensive players on the team in just his first season. Expect to see a lot more of Kincaid this year, especially with how much he helped open up the passing attack last year with his unique skill set.
 

Graham: I’ll go with Shakir, who didn’t hit 40 percent of the offensive snaps until Week 8, right about the time Diggs’ parachute opened. From that point on, counting the playoff games, Shakir’s 17-game pace was 58 receptions for 866 yards and four TDs. That was for an interim offensive coordinator calling plays that were devised all summer for a presumed top three of Diggs, Gabriel Davis and Deonte Harty. Brady now will be designing plays with the knowledge a surging Shakir can play 80 to 90 percent of the snaps. While he almost certainly won’t fill the Diggs vacuum entirely by himself, Shakir will have the best chance to exploit the opportunity.

 

 

[90sBills]

4 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

If you put "not giving Allen weapons" in quotes, it implies sarcasm. I didn't read through the thread, so if that is not your intention, I misread your intent.

It wasn’t meant to be sarcasm. The quotes were quoting what most here say. Yes I agree that the WR room needs an upgrade. Even more so now that Diggs is gone.

 

My response was to the poster that said we can win with scrub receivers like KC did because we have Allen.  We can all see that is not true given what has played out. No snark intended.

[VW82]

With so much lost depth and holes to fill on both sides of the ball, it’d be reckless to trade up. That’s what makes this trade so perplexing. We NEEDED Diiggs this year. Instead we’re basically paying top dollar (via cap) to play against us. Next year we’ll have more options. 
 

In no particular order, we need to address:

 

1. both outside WR spots

2. Interior OL starters (C maybe LG) and depth

3. Starting Safety

4. Edge depth

5. DT depth 

6. LB depth

 

We don’t know what Milano will look like when he returns. He’s pushing 30. Daquan is re-signed but is entering his mid-30s. We could use a third RB. 
 

Trading multiple picks to move up into the teens to take a wideout who will likely take a year or two to figure things out is bad planning. I’d rather see us trade a lower pick for a proven stopgap and pick away at the problem over time. BPA in the meantime. We have too many needs to get hyper focused. This is now a re-tool year. 

Edited April 4 by VW82

[Nuncha]

21 hours ago, MJS said:

Yeah, there must have been a lot more going on that we don't know about. I know Diggs sent some mysterious tweets, but largely he kept the issues in house, and I respect him for that. Too many players go out and air their dirty laundry in interviews or on social media. Diggs didn't do that, regardless of how people feel about his tweets. Nothing was blatant.

 

That said, it's a real shame that he couldn't be more professional and control his emotions and attitude. He basically forced himself off the team, and that sucks.

His play the last quarter of the season and post season also helped "force" him off the team as well.  The dude was brutal down the stretch.

Edited April 4 by Nuncha

[MJS]

15 minutes ago, Nuncha said:

His play the last quarter of the season and post season also helped "force" him off the team as well.  The dude was brutal down the stretch.

That's true. And it culminated in his atrocious game against the Chiefs in the playoffs. And Beane puts a lot of stock in elimination games. He always says that those games highlight your difficiencies. Diggs was clearly a difficiency in that game.

[Rockinon]

I think the OP is pretty close to having this right. Brady was clearly trying to spread the ball around and playmakers like Cook, Shakir and Kincaid stepped up nicely. The offense needed to evolve. It could not continue as the Allen to Diggs show. I am not really buying that Stephon's talent has dropped off, but do think his production has. It became clear that the team needs other playmakers to step up because it was stagnating. Really looking forward to seeing what new wrinkles are added to make the offense more explosive. Hopefully Brady continues to improve on what, I think was an impressive start last year. It really is nice to have some young talent stepping into significant roles. The pieces are coming together and I don't think Beane is done adding even more young talent. Overall, I agree that the offense is moving in the right direction and could be even better moving forward.

[Big Turk]

21 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

I’m sorry but to say the Bills are going to be better on offense without Diggs and Davis is crazy too me. I like Kincaid and Shakir but you’re not going to convince me having Diggs on the field didn’t open up things for them. I think Kincaid will be a stud for sure…but Shakir let’s pump the breaks on that. 

Josh without Diggs on the field is still an unknown. Just a lot of question marks on the offensive side of the ball right now to say they are going to be better. 

 

At this point it is...but we don't know what other moves Beane has up his sleeve or who we get in the draft so we can't say that isn't possible either.

 

Have to wait and see. As of right now definitely not. But this isn't the roster that will take the field in September either.

[Orlando Buffalo]

In this draft I don't want to spend any future picks to move up for a WR, since so many high potential guys are available. I would rather sit tight and draft best one at 28 and use round 5 pick to move up in second to get another. Other than MHJ I would not bet on any individual  rookie WR is a difference maker before November so I am thinking long term here 

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, bigK14094 said:

But, Cook is an unreliable pass catcher, in the same way Dawson Knox drops his share and more.

 

He only drops sure TD passes HA.

 

But yeah, on the other hand though he still has a high catch rate by the nature most of the throws to him are short.  But it is maddening when he dropped I believe 4 sure fire TD's this year.

4 hours ago, amprov56 said:

The sky was suppose to fall after Sammy Watkins left, the emotional attachment to him lingered for years; many will be lamenting Diggs well into the 2030's. 

 

Haha spot on

[Allen2Moulds]

22 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I will be the first to admit, I thought there was little chance Beane would trade Diggs before the draft unless one of 2 things happened:  He either got a huge offer he couldn't refuse or something behind the scenes made Diggs an "addition by subtraction" situation, kind of like Beanes first year here where he moved Sammy for a 2nd right away and then we dumped Darius for a 6th rounder to just get him away from the team midseason.

 

Well, we know we didn't get an "offer he couldn't refuse" given the overall compensation is pretty weak, especially for the cap hits we will take.  So, seems like there was more going on behind the scenes where Beane felt we were better off as a team if he was not on the roster this year.  So will be interesting to see what comes out after this, if anything.  

 

So where does that leave us as an offense with both Diggs and Davis, our top 2 WR's last 2 years, now gone?  I am gonna say this right out the gate, I think that not only are we fine, but we might be an even better offense in 2024 than we were in 2023.  Im no Diggs hater, but the reality is he commanded a lot of targets on a team that loves to spread the ball around.  

 

Looking back at last season, both Diggs and Davis were not more often than not barely showing up on the stat sheets during the back half of the season and playoffs.  Yet this team went 6-1 during that span to win the division and the 2 seed and almost made the AFCCG.  

 

Our roster right now:

We have an exciting nucleus of young talent on our offense today, even before the draft and with Diggs gone.  The combination of Shakir, Kincaid, and Cook are an exciting trio of young weapons who broke out last year and look to have bright futures.  Samuel is only 27 and here 3 years as well and is another quality weapon for this offense.  

• Shakir - He put up 611 yards on just 39 targets last year which is incredible.  That is an insane 13.5 yards per TARGET...not per catch, per target.  And that came with a catch rate of like 87% catch rate.  The guy made a lot of plays and was arguably our best WR down the stretch to obtain the 2 seed.  @BADOLBILZasked me what I think he can be and I flat out said this kid is a 1000+ yard WR IMHO on a lot of teams this year but would never get that chance in Buffalo (and no one likely would) as long as Diggs is here because he commands too many targets and then there are a lot of other mouths to feed after Diggs when you look at who is on the roster and the expected addition of a high round rookie in this draft.  
  • But now, with Diggs gone, I do think we will see Shakir flirt with a 1000 yards and maybe exceed it here in Buffalo this season.  There is still a lot of mouths to feed (Rookie, Samuel, Kincaid, Cook both running and recieving, etc) beyond Shakir, but I do think he will be Allens most trusted target this year and I will increase my prediction on him from pre-Diggs trade of 700-900 to now post Diggs trade of 900-1100 yards.  
• Kincaid - Like Shakir, his role just got bigger in terms of available targets.  How much bigger I think depends on how fast whatever rookie we take gels with Allen in the offense.  If the rookie comes in and rips off say 1200+ yard season, then I think Kincaid probably finishes more in that 700-850 yard range.  If the rookie is more of a 800-1100 rookie year, then I can see Kincaid hitting at least 800 yards and flirting with a 1000 potentially.  
• Samuel - I don't think his role changes much to be honest.  I think he is going to be a 700 yard type WR for us, a guy who is valuable but maybe his impact is more streaky.  Not a knock on him, more about there is only one football to go around and he has less time and rapport with Allen right now, so I think Shakir and Kincaid will have a leg up on targets, especially early on.  

 

Impact on the draft:

I honestly don't think this changes a whole lot for us in regards to the draft given its been very clear we were looking at WR early for a while now.  However, the biggest impact now is maybe in Beane's comfort on how aggressive he may want to be to get a guy.  With an extra 2nd rounder next year, he might feel more comfortable including our first next year if a guy he covets gets close enough where our first gets us there.  The 2nd rounder next year itself doesn't get us a lot of movement in this draft but our first can get us into the teens.  

 

Best case scenario for Bills (if Beane intends to get up and get a guy) is that these 3 things happen ahead of us:

1. A big QB run happens (Possible the first 4 picks could be QB's if AZ trades back with someone like Minny) 
2. Brock Bowers goes BEFORE one of the big 3 WR's (MHJ, Nabers, Odunze)
3. Someone over drafts Xavier Worthy before one of the big 3 after falling in love with his 40 time

 

If those 3 things happen, I think it is highly likely that one of either Nabers or Odunze fall into the back half of teens where using our first next year gets us into play for a move up to get one.  If only 2 of those things happen, still possible.  

 

If the Big 3 go before the 15th pick, then I think Beane might consider moving up for Thomas, although I am not sold he would be willing to go as high to get Thomas as he would one of the other 3.  

 

Predictions on next year:

I am actually quite excited to see more of Shakir, Kincaid and Cook next year to go along with a rookie and Samuel.  I think our offense has the potential to be even better in 2024 as it already proved better once those guys got more involved last year.  Diggs and the attention he commanded from the defense will be missed, but I think there are still plenty of weapons here and I think whatever rookie we bring combined with the talent of Allen will help command some of the attention Diggs was getting.  

 

I hate the cap hits...but I love the potential of what our young core and whatever rookie(s) we add to the fold can bring to this field as soon as this season.  

Given the increased potential of a trade up, who would you like us to go after?   I'm personally a fan of both LSU guys but realize Nabors would be far too expensive to get to.

[Utah John]

22 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

 

If those 3 things happen, I think it is highly likely that one of either Nabers or Odunze fall into the back half of teens where using our first next year gets us into play for a move up to get one.  If only 2 of those things happen, still possible.  

 

 

 

 

Absolutely not. We should never again use two first round picks for any player except Josh's eventual replacement, ten years from now.  But what COULD happen is Beane using this year's first, and the 2025 second he got for Diggs, to move up.  This would mean basically trading Diggs to select a better Diggs replacement than he would have received before the trade.  But as the OP said it would take a lot of breaks from other teams to leave a top WR available in a spot Beane could reach.

[amprov56]

16 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

He only drops sure TD passes HA.

 

But yeah, on the other hand though he still has a high catch rate by the nature most of the throws to him are short.  But it is maddening when he dropped I believe 4 sure fire TD's this year.

 

Haha spot on

Of course Watkins went on to a HOF career!

[Utah John]

As for trading Diggs, we like to think he's still 2022 or 2021 Diggs, but he's not that guy anymore, and next year he won't even be 2024 Diggs.  Beane does have a heart but he's also a calculating and farsighted planner.  

[amprov56]

Just now, Utah John said:

As for trading Diggs, we like to think he's still 2022 or 2021 Diggs, but he's not that guy anymore, and next year he won't even be 2024 Diggs.  Beane does have a heart but he's also a calculating and farsighted planner.  

Bill Polian once said the Buffalo Bills made a habit of keeping fan favorites after their prime and it hurt the team in the long run.