Diggs trade aftermath...what this means for the offense, draft, other WR's still here...

[MasterStrategist]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I will be the first to admit, I thought there was little chance Beane would trade Diggs before the draft unless one of 2 things happened:  He either got a huge offer he couldn't refuse or something behind the scenes made Diggs an "addition by subtraction" situation, kind of like Beanes first year here where he moved Sammy for a 2nd right away and then we dumped Darius for a 6th rounder to just get him away from the team midseason.

 

Well, we know we didn't get an "offer he couldn't refuse" given the overall compensation is pretty weak, especially for the cap hits we will take.  So, seems like there was more going on behind the scenes where Beane felt we were better off as a team if he was not on the roster this year.  So will be interesting to see what comes out after this, if anything.  

 

So where does that leave us as an offense with both Diggs and Davis, our top 2 WR's last 2 years, now gone?  I am gonna say this right out the gate, I think that not only are we fine, but we might be an even better offense in 2024 than we were in 2023.  Im no Diggs hater, but the reality is he commanded a lot of targets on a team that loves to spread the ball around.  

 

Looking back at last season, both Diggs and Davis were not more often than not barely showing up on the stat sheets during the back half of the season and playoffs.  Yet this team went 6-1 during that span to win the division and the 2 seed and almost made the AFCCG.  

 

Our roster right now:

We have an exciting nucleus of young talent on our offense today, even before the draft and with Diggs gone.  The combination of Shakir, Kincaid, and Cook are an exciting trio of young weapons who broke out last year and look to have bright futures.  Samuel is only 27 and here 3 years as well and is another quality weapon for this offense.  

• Shakir - He put up 611 yards on just 39 targets last year which is incredible.  That is an insane 13.5 yards per TARGET...not per catch, per target.  And that came with a catch rate of like 87% catch rate.  The guy made a lot of plays and was arguably our best WR down the stretch to obtain the 2 seed.  @BADOLBILZasked me what I think he can be and I flat out said this kid is a 1000+ yard WR IMHO on a lot of teams this year but would never get that chance in Buffalo (and no one likely would) as long as Diggs is here because he commands too many targets and then there are a lot of other mouths to feed after Diggs when you look at who is on the roster and the expected addition of a high round rookie in this draft.  
  • But now, with Diggs gone, I do think we will see Shakir flirt with a 1000 yards and maybe exceed it here in Buffalo this season.  There is still a lot of mouths to feed (Rookie, Samuel, Kincaid, Cook both running and recieving, etc) beyond Shakir, but I do think he will be Allens most trusted target this year and I will increase my prediction on him from pre-Diggs trade of 700-900 to now post Diggs trade of 900-1100 yards.  
• Kincaid - Like Shakir, his role just got bigger in terms of available targets.  How much bigger I think depends on how fast whatever rookie we take gels with Allen in the offense.  If the rookie comes in and rips off say 1200+ yard season, then I think Kincaid probably finishes more in that 700-850 yard range.  If the rookie is more of a 800-1100 rookie year, then I can see Kincaid hitting at least 800 yards and flirting with a 1000 potentially.  
• Samuel - I don't think his role changes much to be honest.  I think he is going to be a 700 yard type WR for us, a guy who is valuable but maybe his impact is more streaky.  Not a knock on him, more about there is only one football to go around and he has less time and rapport with Allen right now, so I think Shakir and Kincaid will have a leg up on targets, especially early on.  

 

Impact on the draft:

I honestly don't think this changes a whole lot for us in regards to the draft given its been very clear we were looking at WR early for a while now.  However, the biggest impact now is maybe in Beane's comfort on how aggressive he may want to be to get a guy.  With an extra 2nd rounder next year, he might feel more comfortable including our first next year if a guy he covets gets close enough where our first gets us there.  The 2nd rounder next year itself doesn't get us a lot of movement in this draft but our first can get us into the teens.  

 

Best case scenario for Bills (if Beane intends to get up and get a guy) is that these 3 things happen ahead of us:

1. A big QB run happens (Possible the first 4 picks could be QB's if AZ trades back with someone like Minny) 
2. Brock Bowers goes BEFORE one of the big 3 WR's (MHJ, Nabers, Odunze)
3. Someone over drafts Xavier Worthy before one of the big 3 after falling in love with his 40 time

 

If those 3 things happen, I think it is highly likely that one of either Nabers or Odunze fall into the back half of teens where using our first next year gets us into play for a move up to get one.  If only 2 of those things happen, still possible.  

 

If the Big 3 go before the 15th pick, then I think Beane might consider moving up for Thomas, although I am not sold he would be willing to go as high to get Thomas as he would one of the other 3.  

 

Predictions on next year:

I am actually quite excited to see more of Shakir, Kincaid and Cook next year to go along with a rookie and Samuel.  I think our offense has the potential to be even better in 2024 as it already proved better once those guys got more involved last year.  Diggs and the attention he commanded from the defense will be missed, but I think there are still plenty of weapons here and I think whatever rookie we bring combined with the talent of Allen will help command some of the attention Diggs was getting.  

 

I hate the cap hits...but I love the potential of what our young core and whatever rookie(s) we add to the fold can bring to this field as soon as this season.  

Agree, nice write up!

 

At least this will be a very interesting draft. I don't think Beane will reach at 28 either, before Diggs trade I was thinking 60/40 DL in Rd 1.  Now it's 100% WR, and there will be 1st round graded guys there, at least a couple.

 

Have a chance to add more speed/size to the group.  I like the idea of spreading the targets more as well.

 

Green Bay has shown a nice model to succeed, without a true #1.  Find 3 solid #2 types, and solid depth.

 

IMO, we have:

#1-nobody

#2: Kincaid (potential), Samuel (2b), Shakir (2b potential)

#3: Knox

Depth: Hollins

 

I think if we can find 1 more reliable WR, and 1 solid depth (with speed or size, to round out WR room).  Round 1 and Round 4 or 5.

 

Only so many targets to go around, now we can actually spread the ball like Bradys offense is designed to do.  It also will allow Josh to play more freely, without constant nagging from Diggs to get him the ball.

[Brand J]

2 hours ago, iccrewman112 said:

I wonder if a small move up in the 2nd can get Franklin after the poor combine. 
 

im curious how his first 10 split was on these private workouts he had.

I heard somewhere he didn’t run the 40 at his pro day and stood on his numbers from the combine (which confused some here considering he claimed to be sick). Pro day reports used to be widely available like combine performances. Wonder what changed and why it feels more secretive now. 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, nosejob said:

I heard 24 going into the season. The same as Shakir going into his 3rd yr. That was Brown and Tasker talking.

He is 23 now and his birthday is in January according to the Google.

[Tulsabillsfanz]

Justin Shorter will get a chance to show if he can be a contributor.   Here’s hoping he’s like Shakir & Bernard & has a great improvement in his second year on the roster. 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Too bad Stephon is gone, but if he wanted out of Buffalo that badly, good riddance.  He was playing with a very tight and competitive team, with a generational talent at QB, and it wasn't enough.  Good luck finding a better recipe for success in Houston.  

His departure also leaves a huge hole in the salary cap for a year.  That was Beane's choice, but it indicates how little the organization wanted him back in the locker room, that they were willing to eat millions in dead cap money.  Doubtless Josh Allen was included in the discussion and must have agreed that the team was better off bringing in rookie replacements and free agents.  

Beane has drafted, I believe, 39 players in his tenure as a GM and 33 are still in the NFL, so he has a good record judging talent.  This is a draft loaded with WRs and there's good reason to believe he'll grab one or two who'll be ready to contribute this year or the next, in addition to the players they already have on board.

 

  

[NoSaint]

7 hours ago, MJS said:

Yeah, there must have been a lot more going on that we don't know about. I know Diggs sent some mysterious tweets, but largely he kept the issues in house, and I respect him for that. Too many players go out and air their dirty laundry in interviews or on social media. Diggs didn't do that, regardless of how people feel about his tweets. Nothing was blatant.

 

That said, it's a real shame that he couldn't be more professional and control his emotions and attitude. He basically forced himself off the team, and that sucks.

nothing was blatant? Come on. It’s been national news for years.
 

he didn’t do anything selflessly - he pushed as hard as he could without being considered and irredeemable cancer by future teams. 
 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

5 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

The only place anywhere that's saying that we'll be better offensively after this trade is a subset of fans here.  Nowhere else does anyone think that at face-value right now at this point in time are we improved, many think we're notably worse.  Out of about ten, I haven't seen one "grade" that's more positive than negative regarding this trade.  

 

As for me, I'm simply envious of what the Texans are doing to support Stroud, after one season, contrasted to how little we've done for Allen after 7 seasons.  

 

 

This is spot on.  Hopefully though McD/Bean have got religion and after taking a step back by releasing Diggs they take two steps forward in the draft and land at least one if not two high end WR's.  This is the draft to do it and next years #2 they got for Diggs absolutely should be committed to moving up to draft a better WR.

 

 

[juno999]

7 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

I really had no problem moving on from Steff after how much he complains he had arguably his worst game as a bill his last game.

But to do it now and not closer to the draft or having something else planned is utterly ridiculous.

I still have to think there is something else at work cause man the WR Depthchart is absolutely terrible. 

Can't help but think Beane has something in the works as far as a trade or FA signing.  The draft is too much of a crap shoot.  

[VW82]

5 hours ago, Billzgobowlin said:

Either way he was not the player he used to be and his shots when he was open equaled a lot of drops.  They set up life without him when all he could catch was behind the line passes

Diggs had the same amount of drops as last year and 2020 when he made all pro. The real issue was no one else could get open vs. single coverage and so defenses just kept on bracketing Stef which kept him close to the LOS. 

 

We haven't done anything to set up life without him.  Who are the starting outside WRs?

[Beck Water]

8 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is where I am at.  Nothing that is known right now suggests it was so bad that Beane felt like he had to make this move and he certainly didn't get some kind of big offer he couldn't refuse.  So feels like we might be in store for some details to leak out that there were some issues where they felt his presence this year on the team just didn't work anymore.  Beane is very cap savvy, so just feels like something had to be in play for him to take this much dead cap on over 2 seasons.  And its clear Beane believed Diggs would be here this year last year or he wouldn't have restructured him which made his contract so bad to trade.  Something changed between then and now.  

 

Just a little nit, Beane will not be taking on dead cap over 2 seasons for Diggs in this trade.  We take it on the chin this year then next season we're clear.

 

12 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Diggs had the same amount of drops as last year and 2020 when he made all pro. The real issue was no one else could get open vs. single coverage and so defenses just kept on bracketing Stef which kept him close to the LOS. 

 

We haven't done anything to set up life without him.  Who are the starting outside WRs?

 

I'm trying to parse this statement and it does not compute "defenses kept on bracketing STef which kept him close to the LOS"

 

Can someone translate please?

 

I thought the routes a WR is assigned on a given play define his depth from the LOS

 

I'll answer your question about the starting outside WRs after training camp.

Edited April 4 by Beck Water

[MJS]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

nothing was blatant? Come on. It’s been national news for years.
 

he didn’t do anything selflessly - he pushed as hard as he could without being considered and irredeemable cancer by future teams. 

No, nothing was blatant at all.

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Just a little nit, Beane will not be taking on dead cap over 2 seasons for Diggs in this trade.  We take it on the chin this year then next season we're clear.

 

Wait, are you sure?  If that is the case, then trading Diggs was a great move as we only lose an extra $3M this year above what he was already gonna cost us.  So are you saying that essentially we got Diggs and his contract out of here for just a $3M additional cap hit this year and then we get cap relief next season?  

 

Because all I have seen is that he carries another dead cap next year of like twenty something million because we restructured him last year.  I mean I hope what you are saying is correct, that would be awesome

[Comebackkid]

things ive read so far.

Bills were tired of diggs basic insaborination of the team.   his passive aggresive attitude.  Diggs was half assing is way through some games and

pulling himself off the field a lot.  Diggs did nothing to stand up for the team and let his brother and other players trash it on his be-half.

 

mid season they had enough and started constructing the offense to prove that it was fine without Diggs.   Diggs had one td and 350ish yards the last half of the season,

while josh threw for over 1800 yards..do the math.   

 

according to a texans rb...Diggs asked for the trade. 

 

According to Bean...no at this moment we are not better than we were...however the preseason is far from over and the wr room will be 

restocked  to play off caliber.

 

Edited April 4 by Comebackkid

[Don Otreply]

The trade aftermath is that the ball will be spread around to the open receiver without regard to it being #1 thru #5, who’s ever open is the correct choice going forward, we will pick up two more WRs before training camp, I have no worries concerning Diggs departure, evidently he needed to go. 

[Toyo321]

8 hours ago, Comebackkid said:

things ive read so far.

Bills were tired of diggs basic insaborination of the team.   his passive aggresive attitude.  Diggs was half assing is way through some games and

pulling himself off the field a lot.  Diggs did nothing to stand up for the team and let his brother and other players trash it on his be-half.

 

mid season they had enough and started constructing the offense to prove that it was fine without Diggs.   Diggs had one td and 350ish yards the last half of the season,

while josh threw for over 1800 yards..do the math.   

 

according to a texans rb...Diggs asked for the trade. 

 

According to Bean...no at this moment we are not better than we were...however the preseason is far from over and the wr room will be 

restocked  to play off caliber.

 

That is a big if.  It all depends who we get in the 1st round, and was this one of the top three WR's in this draft.  We shall wait & see.

Edited April 4 by Toyo321

[GASabresIUFan]

One small point of clarification.  Diggs was going to cost us nearly 28 in cap this season.  Trading him costs us 31 million (or only 3 million more this season), but saves 27 million in 2025.  The Bills are still 4+ under the cap even after this move and will be about $12 mill under on June 1 after the draft picks are signed.

 

I agree with the OP that this offense has the opportunity to be significantly more dynamic next season.  I’ve talked about GB before with their 4 excellent young WRs and 2 good young TEs who make it near impossible for defenses to focus on any one player in the passing game.  The Bills now have a similar opportunity.  Brady and Allen can redistribute the 300 targets that went to Diggs, Davis, Harty and Sherfiled among Samuel and the kids and give Allen the green light to throw to the open guy. No favorites.  Kincaid, Cook and Shakir proved last year if you throw to them they’ll catch it.  They each caught over 80% plus of the balls thrown their way.  Davis and Diggs were a combined 63% on 241 targets.  Now add a dynamic WR talent from the draft, and I think we’ll see Josh running less and complete a significantly higher % in 2024 than in recent years. 
 

Assuming everyone stays relatively healthy

I see Kincaid going over 1000 yards on 125 targets (95 receptions)

Cook jumps to 50 catches from 44  for 500 yards

Draftee replaces Davis with 750 yards on about 45 catches on 65 targets

Shakir doubles his targets to about 90 with 70 receptions for 925 yards

Samuel adds another 700 yards on 58 catches on 80 targets

[Comebackkid]

5 minutes ago, Toyo321 said:

That is a big if.  It all depends who we get at in the the 1st round, and was this one of the top three WR's in this draft.  We shall wait & see.

6-1 during the hardest part of the schedule and diggs did squat...he wasnt getting double teamed either.   plus on two possesions he fumbed the ball and let it 

get intercepted.   u dont need a super start..u just need a lot of guys that do there job well.   u could say that davis and diggs (last half of the season) 

actually dragged the rest of the wr down with them.   

but your right..everything is wait and see right now.

Edited April 4 by Comebackkid

[ghostwriter]

What does the Diggs trade mean to our offense? Well, Buffalo will have $19M more cap space in 2025 and Buffalo now has an extra RD2 pick that we can use to move up with in an extremely dense if not historic WR draft.. Let’s just wait and see what happens on the 28th. 

[Alphadawg7]

One more thing I just thought of...I bet Josh Allen, McD, Beane, and the other players are going to be happy they won't have to keep getting asked the same repetitive stupid questions about Diggs, him and Josh's relationship, etc etc.  

 

I think not having that energy around the team will help get this team back to having fun again.  

[Big Blitz]

We’re going to draft a WR sure.  Priority one.  
 

 

HOWEVER, the ENTIRE offense is about to change.  
 

So let’s shuffle half the Oline to.  This is insane.  
 

I’m 100000 percent serious - the odds are extremely high we aren’t winning a SB this year.  We’ll compete.  But there is way too much turnover almost everywhere but. The Dline.  
 

 

CENTER - STABILIZE THE IOL for a decade with a Center in a trade back to get another pick - Coleman?  In RD 2.  Or maybe Mitchell.  
 

Bc right now this is shaping up to be the Josh show again.  So PROTECT HIM!!!!

 

 

My ideal draft - and it’s the right way to go:

 

Trade back:

 

RD 2 Powers - Johnson or Frazier

RD 2 pick 2 - Mitchell or Coleman or Legette.  
 

 

I’ll be thru the moon.  

 

YOU WIN IN THE TRENCHES - WITH AN ELITE QB YOUR WRs CAN BE MVS, TONEY, HARDMAN AND A ROOKIE AND YOU CAN WIN THE SB.  

Edited April 4 by Big Blitz