Diggs trade aftermath...what this means for the offense, draft, other WR's still here...

[Alphadawg7]

I will be the first to admit, I thought there was little chance Beane would trade Diggs before the draft unless one of 2 things happened:  He either got a huge offer he couldn't refuse or something behind the scenes made Diggs an "addition by subtraction" situation, kind of like Beanes first year here where he moved Sammy for a 2nd right away and then we dumped Darius for a 6th rounder to just get him away from the team midseason.

 

Well, we know we didn't get an "offer he couldn't refuse" given the overall compensation is pretty weak, especially for the cap hits we will take.  So, seems like there was more going on behind the scenes where Beane felt we were better off as a team if he was not on the roster this year.  So will be interesting to see what comes out after this, if anything.  

 

So where does that leave us as an offense with both Diggs and Davis, our top 2 WR's last 2 years, now gone?  I am gonna say this right out the gate, I think that not only are we fine, but we might be an even better offense in 2024 than we were in 2023.  Im no Diggs hater, but the reality is he commanded a lot of targets on a team that loves to spread the ball around.  

 

Looking back at last season, both Diggs and Davis were not more often than not barely showing up on the stat sheets during the back half of the season and playoffs.  Yet this team went 6-1 during that span to win the division and the 2 seed and almost made the AFCCG.  

 

Our roster right now:

We have an exciting nucleus of young talent on our offense today, even before the draft and with Diggs gone.  The combination of Shakir, Kincaid, and Cook are an exciting trio of young weapons who broke out last year and look to have bright futures.  Samuel is only 27 and here 3 years as well and is another quality weapon for this offense.  

• Shakir - He put up 611 yards on just 39 targets last year which is incredible.  That is an insane 13.5 yards per TARGET...not per catch, per target.  And that came with a catch rate of like 87% catch rate.  The guy made a lot of plays and was arguably our best WR down the stretch to obtain the 2 seed.  @BADOLBILZasked me what I think he can be and I flat out said this kid is a 1000+ yard WR IMHO on a lot of teams this year but would never get that chance in Buffalo (and no one likely would) as long as Diggs is here because he commands too many targets and then there are a lot of other mouths to feed after Diggs when you look at who is on the roster and the expected addition of a high round rookie in this draft.  
  • But now, with Diggs gone, I do think we will see Shakir flirt with a 1000 yards and maybe exceed it here in Buffalo this season.  There is still a lot of mouths to feed (Rookie, Samuel, Kincaid, Cook both running and recieving, etc) beyond Shakir, but I do think he will be Allens most trusted target this year and I will increase my prediction on him from pre-Diggs trade of 700-900 to now post Diggs trade of 900-1100 yards.  
• Kincaid - Like Shakir, his role just got bigger in terms of available targets.  How much bigger I think depends on how fast whatever rookie we take gels with Allen in the offense.  If the rookie comes in and rips off say 1200+ yard season, then I think Kincaid probably finishes more in that 700-850 yard range.  If the rookie is more of a 800-1100 rookie year, then I can see Kincaid hitting at least 800 yards and flirting with a 1000 potentially.  
• Samuel - I don't think his role changes much to be honest.  I think he is going to be a 700 yard type WR for us, a guy who is valuable but maybe his impact is more streaky.  Not a knock on him, more about there is only one football to go around and he has less time and rapport with Allen right now, so I think Shakir and Kincaid will have a leg up on targets, especially early on.  

 

Impact on the draft:

I honestly don't think this changes a whole lot for us in regards to the draft given its been very clear we were looking at WR early for a while now.  However, the biggest impact now is maybe in Beane's comfort on how aggressive he may want to be to get a guy.  With an extra 2nd rounder next year, he might feel more comfortable including our first next year if a guy he covets gets close enough where our first gets us there.  The 2nd rounder next year itself doesn't get us a lot of movement in this draft but our first can get us into the teens.  

 

Best case scenario for Bills (if Beane intends to get up and get a guy) is that these 3 things happen ahead of us:

1. A big QB run happens (Possible the first 4 picks could be QB's if AZ trades back with someone like Minny) 
2. Brock Bowers goes BEFORE one of the big 3 WR's (MHJ, Nabers, Odunze)
3. Someone over drafts Xavier Worthy before one of the big 3 after falling in love with his 40 time

 

If those 3 things happen, I think it is highly likely that one of either Nabers or Odunze fall into the back half of teens where using our first next year gets us into play for a move up to get one.  If only 2 of those things happen, still possible.  

 

If the Big 3 go before the 15th pick, then I think Beane might consider moving up for Thomas, although I am not sold he would be willing to go as high to get Thomas as he would one of the other 3.  

 

Predictions on next year:

I am actually quite excited to see more of Shakir, Kincaid and Cook next year to go along with a rookie and Samuel.  I think our offense has the potential to be even better in 2024 as it already proved better once those guys got more involved last year.  Diggs and the attention he commanded from the defense will be missed, but I think there are still plenty of weapons here and I think whatever rookie we bring combined with the talent of Allen will help command some of the attention Diggs was getting.  

 

I hate the cap hits...but I love the potential of what our young core and whatever rookie(s) we add to the fold can bring to this field as soon as this season.  

Edited April 3 by Alphadawg7

[MJS]

Yeah, there must have been a lot more going on that we don't know about. I know Diggs sent some mysterious tweets, but largely he kept the issues in house, and I respect him for that. Too many players go out and air their dirty laundry in interviews or on social media. Diggs didn't do that, regardless of how people feel about his tweets. Nothing was blatant.

 

That said, it's a real shame that he couldn't be more professional and control his emotions and attitude. He basically forced himself off the team, and that sucks.

[Alphadawg7]

44 minutes ago, MJS said:

Yeah, there must have been a lot more going on that we don't know about. I know Diggs sent some mysterious tweets, but largely he kept the issues in house, and I respect him for that. Too many players go out and air their dirty laundry in interviews or on social media. Diggs didn't do that, regardless of how people feel about his tweets. Nothing was blatant.

 

That said, it's a real shame that he couldn't be more professional and control his emotions and attitude. He basically forced himself off the team, and that sucks.

 

This is where I am at.  Nothing that is known right now suggests it was so bad that Beane felt like he had to make this move and he certainly didn't get some kind of big offer he couldn't refuse.  So feels like we might be in store for some details to leak out that there were some issues where they felt his presence this year on the team just didn't work anymore.  Beane is very cap savvy, so just feels like something had to be in play for him to take this much dead cap on over 2 seasons.  And its clear Beane believed Diggs would be here this year last year or he wouldn't have restructured him which made his contract so bad to trade.  Something changed between then and now.  

[BillMafia716ix]

I’m sorry but to say the Bills are going to be better on offense without Diggs and Davis is crazy too me. I like Kincaid and Shakir but you’re not going to convince me having Diggs on the field didn’t open up things for them. I think Kincaid will be a stud for sure…but Shakir let’s pump the breaks on that. 

Josh without Diggs on the field is still an unknown. Just a lot of question marks on the offensive side of the ball right now to say they are going to be better. 

[mushypeaches]

Excellent write-up by the OP

 

I agree that we do have an opportunity to be better next year - both with the young guys getting more targets, but also with an offseason to implement Brady's full scheme.

 

I also think that there's a big opportunity to get more speed into the equation as well - something that we've missed since we had McKenzie.  I'd like to see more motion, jet sweeps, all that fun stuff that I think really wasn't there last year.  I think Samuel adds a dimension of that unpredictability so hopefully we get more of an infusion of that in the draft too.

[GoBills808]

good job not taking this btw

 

On 3/19/2024 at 11:38 AM, GoBills808 said:

I'll take that bet

+550 he gets traded before season starts

 

[Brand J]

The pattern was strikingly similar to his time in MIN, including cryptic tweets, yet so many deluded themselves into believing it meant very little. I’m not at all surprised, even with the higher dead cap money. His distraction had become greater than his production and it was time to move on. The only thing that did surprise me is that the Bills had to send a couple picks back to HOU to make it work. Didn’t like that, even for late rounders. 
 

Whenever a move of this magnitude is made the GM usually speaks. I wonder what time the Beane presser will be.

[MJS]

19 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is where I am at.  Nothing that is known right now suggests it was so bad that Beane felt like he had to make this move and he certainly didn't get some kind of big offer he couldn't refuse.  So feels like we might be in store for some details to leak out that there were some issues where they felt his presence this year on the team just didn't work anymore.  Beane is very cap savvy, so just feels like something had to be in play for him to take this much dead cap on over 2 seasons.  And its clear Beane believed Diggs would be here this year last year or he wouldn't have restructured him which made his contract so bad to trade.  Something changed between then and now.  

Really the only leak was McDermott's "very concerned" comment from last year. The Bills keep these things quiet.

9 minutes ago, BillMafia716ix said:

I’m sorry but to say the Bills are going to be better on offense without Diggs and Davis is crazy too me. I like Kincaid and Shakir but you’re not going to convince me having Diggs on the field didn’t open up things for them. I think Kincaid will be a stud for sure…but Shakir let’s pump the breaks on that. 

Josh without Diggs on the field is still an unknown. Just a lot of question marks on the offensive side of the ball right now to say they are going to be better. 

The offseason isn't over. The roster is still being built. We have the draft, potential trades, and up until the season to bring in free agents.

[Alphadawg7]

10 minutes ago, BillMafia716ix said:

I’m sorry but to say the Bills are going to be better on offense without Diggs and Davis is crazy too me. I like Kincaid and Shakir but you’re not going to convince me having Diggs on the field didn’t open up things for them. I think Kincaid will be a stud for sure…but Shakir let’s pump the breaks on that. 

Josh without Diggs on the field is still an unknown. Just a lot of question marks on the offensive side of the ball right now to say they are going to be better. 

 

I acknowledged that with Diggs, and said that would be the biggest loss.  But I did counter that with how important hitting on the rookie WR will be because that rookie WR could take at least some of that attention Diggs got if he shows he can make an impact year 1 like Jefferson, Chase, Pakua, etc have done the last few years.  

 

So I don't disagree Diggs helps open things up, but we land say Thomas who is 6'3" and runs a 4.34 forty out there, he is gonna command some attention.  And if he and Allen show early chemistry, that attention will increase as the season goes on.  

 

But also...the biggest benefit of spreading the ball around is to create mismatches and take advantage of what the D is giving you.  And when you got guys like Kincaid, Shakir, and even Samuel who can move around in the offense, plus Cook out of the backfield, Allens threat to run, and whatever the Rookie WR is bringing to the table, then you don't "NEED" a Diggs to open up everything for you.  

[Virgil]

Sorry, I can't take this post seriously.  What do you mean you didn't predict that Beane would eat 31 mil in dead cap space? 😜

[Ga boy]

12 minutes ago, mushypeaches said:

Excellent write-up by the OP

 

I agree that we do have an opportunity to be better next year - both with the young guys getting more targets, but also with an offseason to implement Brady's full scheme.

 

I also think that there's a big opportunity to get more speed into the equation as well - something that we've missed since we had McKenzie.  I'd like to see more motion, jet sweeps, all that fun stuff that I think really wasn't there last year.  I think Samuel adds a dimension of that unpredictability so hopefully we get more of an infusion of that in the draft too.

Definitely need more screens to keep D off balance.

[78thealltimegreat]

I really had no problem moving on from Steff after how much he complains he had arguably his worst game as a bill his last game.

But to do it now and not closer to the draft or having something else planned is utterly ridiculous.

I still have to think there is something else at work cause man the WR Depthchart is absolutely terrible. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I will be the first to admit, I thought there was little chance Beane would trade Diggs before the draft unless one of 2 things happened:  He either got a huge offer he couldn't refuse or something behind the scenes made Diggs an "addition by subtraction" situation, kind of like Beanes first year here where he moved Sammy for a 2nd right away and then we dumped Darius for a 6th rounder to just get him away from the team midseason.

 

Well, we know we didn't get an "offer he couldn't refuse" given the overall compensation is pretty weak, especially for the cap hits we will take.  So, seems like there was more going on behind the scenes where Beane felt we were better off as a team if he was not on the roster this year.  So will be interesting to see what comes out after this, if anything.  

 

So where does that leave us as an offense with both Diggs and Davis, our top 2 WR's last 2 years, now gone?  I am gonna say this right out the gate, I think that not only are we fine, but we might be an even better offense in 2024 than we were in 2023.  Im no Diggs hater, but the reality is he commanded a lot of targets on a team that loves to spread the ball around.  

 

Looking back at last season, both Diggs and Davis were not more often than not barely showing up on the stat sheets during the back half of the season and playoffs.  Yet this team went 6-1 during that span to win the division and the 2 seed and almost made the AFCCG.  

 

Our roster right now:

We have an exciting nucleus of young talent on our offense today, even before the draft and with Diggs gone.  The combination of Shakir, Kincaid, and Cook are an exciting trio of young weapons who broke out last year and look to have bright futures.  Samuel is only 27 and here 3 years as well and is another quality weapon for this offense.  

• Shakir - He put up 611 yards on just 39 targets last year which is incredible.  That is an insane 13.5 yards per TARGET...not per catch, per target.  And that came with a catch rate of like 87% catch rate.  The guy made a lot of plays and was arguably our best WR down the stretch to obtain the 2 seed.  @BADOLBILZasked me what I think he can be and I flat out said this kid is a 1000+ yard WR IMHO on a lot of teams this year but would never get that chance in Buffalo (and no one likely would) as long as Diggs is here because he commands too many targets and then there are a lot of other mouths to feed after Diggs when you look at who is on the roster and the expected addition of a high round rookie in this draft.  
  • But now, with Diggs gone, I do think we will see Shakir flirt with a 1000 yards and maybe exceed it here in Buffalo this season.  There is still a lot of mouths to feed (Rookie, Samuel, Kincaid, Cook both running and recieving, etc) beyond Shakir, but I do think he will be Allens most trusted target this year and I will increase my prediction on him from pre-Diggs trade of 700-900 to now post Diggs trade of 900-1100 yards.  
• Kincaid - Like Shakir, his role just got bigger in terms of available targets.  How much bigger I think depends on how fast whatever rookie we take gels with Allen in the offense.  If the rookie comes in and rips off say 1200+ yard season, then I think Kincaid probably finishes more in that 700-850 yard range.  If the rookie is more of a 800-1100 rookie year, then I can see Kincaid hitting at least 800 yards and flirting with a 1000 potentially.  
• Samuel - I don't think his role changes much to be honest.  I think he is going to be a 700 yard type WR for us, a guy who is valuable but maybe his impact is more streaky.  Not a knock on him, more about there is only one football to go around and he has less time and rapport with Allen right now, so I think Shakir and Kincaid will have a leg up on targets, especially early on.  

 

Impact on the draft:

I honestly don't think this changes a whole lot for us in regards to the draft given its been very clear we were looking at WR early for a while now.  However, the biggest impact now is maybe in Beane's comfort on how aggressive he may want to be to get a guy.  With an extra 2nd rounder next year, he might feel more comfortable including our first next year if a guy he covets gets close enough where our first gets us there.  The 2nd rounder next year itself doesn't get us a lot of movement in this draft but our first can get us into the teens.  

 

Best case scenario for Bills (if Beane intends to get up and get a guy) is that these 3 things happen ahead of us:

1. A big QB run happens (Possible the first 4 picks could be QB's if AZ trades back with someone like Minny) 
2. Brock Bowers goes BEFORE one of the big 3 WR's (MHJ, Nabers, Odunze)
3. Someone over drafts Xavier Worthy before one of the big 3 after falling in love with his 40 time

 

If those 3 things happen, I think it is highly likely that one of either Nabers or Odunze fall into the back half of teens where using our first next year gets us into play for a move up to get one.  If only 2 of those things happen, still possible.  

 

If the Big 3 go before the 15th pick, then I think Beane might consider moving up for Thomas, although I am not sold he would be willing to go as high to get Thomas as he would one of the other 3.  

 

Predictions on next year:

I am actually quite excited to see more of Shakir, Kincaid and Cook next year to go along with a rookie and Samuel.  I think our offense has the potential to be even better in 2024 as it already proved better once those guys got more involved last year.  Diggs and the attention he commanded from the defense will be missed, but I think there are still plenty of weapons here and I think whatever rookie we bring combined with the talent of Allen will help command some of the attention Diggs was getting.  

 

I hate the cap hits...but I love the potential of what our young core and whatever rookie(s) we add to the fold can bring to this field as soon as this season.  

I think this is a really good write up, Alpha. Well thought out and detailed. I don't agree with every point, however the gist of the entire post I do. 

 

I, too hate the cap hits for the moment, however it does clear a TON off the books for 2025. I think as fans we get too locked into short term and forget there are other seasons on the horizon as well. As of right now, this move provides Beane an extra 2nd round pick and about $27M in cap space in 2025. Those may both change but that is huge both for next season and this season if Beane wishes to sign guys with a void year tacked on.

 

I also think this may have been the plan at the end of the year, or at least something they discussed with Diggs in his exit interview. It was brushed off br Diggs "being Stef" but right after the season he made a point to say he was ready for whatever" several times. He understood the business. I don't think this was anything that caught Diggs off guard 

Edited April 3 by BuffaloBillyG

[Chicken Boo]

People behind the scenes knew something was brewing.  The line moved on him being traded, specifically, to the Texans.  

 

I was listening to Vic on XM and he stated that Beane is "retooling on the fly" and that's exactly what it looks like.

 

With Cook being the RB1 and the addition of Samuel, it seems to me that speed will be a primary focus for this "revamped" offense. 

 

Unfortunately, it doesn't tell us much with Nabers, Thomas, Mitchell, Franklin, etc all being 4.3 guys.

 

Pay close attention to those top-30 visits.  

Edited April 3 by Chicken Boo

[Gigs]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

Yeah, there must have been a lot more going on that we don't know about. I know Diggs sent some mysterious tweets, but largely he kept the issues in house, and I respect him for that. Too many players go out and air their dirty laundry in interviews or on social media. Diggs didn't do that, regardless of how people feel about his tweets. Nothing was blatant.

 

That said, it's a real shame that he couldn't be more professional and control his emotions and attitude. He basically forced himself off the team, and that sucks.

They probably want a top WR and felt Diggs wasn't capable in anymore in where this offense wants to go. They made sure to get a 2nd rounder, so I'll bet it's ammo/insurance to move up big time. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

45 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

good job not taking this btw

 

 

You should have been a man and done it straight up 😂

[iccrewman112]

39 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

People behind the scenes knew something was brewing.  The line moved on him being traded, specifically, to the Texans.  

 

I was listening to Vic on XM and he stated that Beane is "retooling on the fly" and that's exactly what it looks like.

 

With Cook being the RB1 and the addition of Samuel, it seems to me that speed will be a primary focus for this "revamped" offense. 

 

Unfortunately, it doesn't tell us much with Nabers, Thomas, Mitchell, Franklin, etc all being 4.3 guys.

 

Pay close attention to those top-30 visits.  

I wonder if a small move up in the 2nd can get Franklin after the poor combine. 
 

im curious how his first 10 split was on these private workouts he had.

[MJS]

I've liked Brian Thomas Jr. as a trade up target, but I listened to Locked On Bills and Joe Marino seems really high on Xavier Legette and has him rated higher than Thomas. Both of those guys are really intriguing to me. Both have size, speed, and explosiveness. If we could land either of them in round one, I'd be happy.

 

Marino describes Legette as a big, physical, alpha male receiver. He's a big receiver who plays big. Explosive accelerator. He can get off blocks in a hurry. Very good at yards after catch. Creative and sees the field well. He can win the edge on outside handoffs if you want to hand the ball off to him. Asset in the screen game and return game. He has that "my ball' mentality when the ball is in the air. Good body control and concentration.

 

And much more. He sounds perfect to me.

[Sweats]

This is what i've been saying about Diggs ever since we brought him in........he started to turn into a cancer at Minny and seems that it was starting to creep its way into this team too.

 

If fans can't see the beautiful horizon thats coming for this team now that Diggs is gone and the team can finally concentrate on some ball without the sideline temper tantrums, then i feel bad for them cause this team is rolling into the future on a high note.

[CDogg20]

The parallels between Diggs and Shakir are insane. I’m not sure we miss him as much as we think we will. Same height weight round drafted only separated by a few picks. Almost the same 40 time. He’s a very similar player. Now am I saying he is Diggs? No. But I think he can be.