NFL Trade Chart - For those interested

[zevo]

Man If somehow odunze slips outside the top 10. Nabers is my guy but any one of those top 3 are special. 

[MikePJ76]

whatever they do they can not move this years 2nd round pick.  If and/or when the trading is done they had better still have this years 2 and 4.

[cbatl32]

58 minutes ago, Virgil said:

#12 - 1200

Bills - #1 2024 - 660 + Bills 2025 #1 300 = 960

 

That math doesn't math at all

There are different 'draft pick trade value charts'.  Remember, the Bills traded the 10th pick to KC in the Mahomes trade for a swap of picks, a 3rd rounder and next year's first rounder.  The "Rich Hill Trade Chart" is supposedly the most accurate.

[BBFL]

Wonder if we can find one of those teams in the 10-15 range who’ll take 28, the 2025 Minny 2nd instead of the 1st rounder and then flip their pick that’s after 60 but not out of the 2nd/3rd round range.

 

Looking at the teams it’s possible for

 

Indy: 15 & 82 for 28, 60 & the Vikings 2nd rounder?

Seattle: 16 & 81 for 28, 60 & the Vikings 2nd? 
Denver: 12 & 75 for 28, 60 & our 2025 1st?

 

New Orleans is tricky given the draft picks they have this year. 
Oakland have the picks but a lot of holes to fill. Probably want to keep the 3 they have in the top 80 (13, 44 & 77). 
Jets aren’t giving up the 10 spot to a division rival unless we are screwing ourselves over. No thanks. 

 

Edited April 3 by BBFL

[Solomon Grundy]

5 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

Top 15 - 1050 Value - #28, 2025 1st, and #2 next year from Diggs trade

 

If there were any move I'd be willing to make, it would be this one.  I think we all know what holes this team will have for the next few years as the age purge is already happening.  I want to keep my picks this year, because we could get that Top 4 WR, and still get a starting G/C, and DL/S with our top picks.  Next year, we wouldn't have our first, but the value is here this year.  We wouldn't miss the 2nd from the Diggs trade.  So I view it as getting a top 4 receiver at the cost of our 1st next year.  I'm good with that

 

#12 - 1200

Bills - #1 2024 - 660 + Bills 2025 #1 300 = 960

 

That math doesn't math at all

How does this year's #1=660 but next year's only=300? 

[Virgil]

6 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

How does this year's #1=660 but next year's only=300? 

Future draft picks are worth one round less value that current picks.  So next years round 1 would be equal to this years round 2

[Buffalo03]

Can our staff put out a fake drug report on one of the top 3 WRs? Get them to fall to number 15 and pull the trigger

[billsfan714]

Just take the best one at 28, don't trade away any premium picks, you want to get younger and cheaper.

[JimBob2232]

35 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

Can our staff put out a fake drug report on one of the top 3 WRs? Get them to fall to number 15 and pull the trigger

 

Well...have you seen the kind of crap Marvin Harrison Jr's dad did?  Cant let that get public.

[Chicken Boo]

6 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

Top 15 - 1050 Value - #28, 2025 1st, and #2 next year from Diggs trade

 

If there were any move I'd be willing to make, it would be this one.  I think we all know what holes this team will have for the next few years as the age purge is already happening.  I want to keep my picks this year, because we could get that Top 4 WR, and still get a starting G/C, and DL/S with our top picks.  Next year, we wouldn't have our first, but the value is here this year.  We wouldn't miss the 2nd from the Diggs trade.  So I view it as getting a top 4 receiver at the cost of our 1st next year.  I'm good with that

 

#12 - 1200

Bills - #1 2024 - 660 + Bills 2025 #1 300 = 960

 

That math doesn't math at all

 

The chart isn't gospel.  Sometimes teams have to give more, sometimes what's accpeted is less.  

[Lagoon Blues]

7 hours ago, Virgil said:

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

 

For those interested in trading up, here's some scenarios.  This is not to say that I want to Bills to make any of these moves.  Just putting information out there.

 

Bills Picks - Value

#28 - 660

#60 - 300

#128 - 44

#133 - 39.5

2025 #1 - 300

2025 #2 132

2025 #2 (Diggs) - 150?

 

These are the values of different tiers in the top 20 for this draft:

5 - 1700

10 - 1300

15 - 1050

20 - 850

 

So, for those who want a top 4 receiver, which are projected to go in the top 10-15, you'd be looking at:

Top 10 - 1300 Value - #28, #60, #133, 2025 #1 

Top 15 - 1050 Value - #28, #60 or next year's 1st, and #2 next year from Diggs trade

 

For me, that's way to rich for my blood in such a deep draft class.  But, I also wouldn't be surprised if one of them fell beyond 10.

Thanks for putting all that together man.

[MasterStrategist]

Unless they see one of the top WRs as "can't miss all-pro", then I'm hesitant to give away picks.

 

WR class is so deep this year, we have some other key holes (DE, DT, S) that we can get better at as well, at least with depth.  

 

I also don't like moving 2025 picks.  Beane is taking "his cap medicine" in 2024, why go "all in" again for 2024?  Again, if it's a can't miss prospect then maybe.  But we are setup capwise and draft picks in 2025 to be very aggressive both in FA and draft.

 

I'd rather stay patient and see who is there at 28, likely a solid WR prospect still.

[mrags]

7 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

I am probably more on the train for Brian Thomas in the top 15 than I am going up to say 9 which I think is the likeliest spot. I do think there is a good possibility that Rome Odunze could slip and I would love to get him.

 

If the Bears want to do it, I think you have to add in this years draft picks since they dont have many.  A lot of people suggest the Rich Hill Model now.

 

Bears pick:

9 (Worth 387 points)

2025 4th Rounder(Worth 15 points)

 

Total: 402 Points

 

 

Bills trade:

28(209 points)

2025 1st Rounder(120 points)

2024 4th Rounder(19 points)

2024 5th Rounder(13 Points)

2025 3rd Rounder (50 points)

 

Total: 411 points

 

This would give the Bills the opportunity to draft Rome Odunze at 9

 

This would leave the Bills in the 2024 draft with: 9, 60, 4th rounder, 2 5th rounders, 2 6th rounders, and a 7th rounder....this leaves the Bills with 8 draft picks

 

Next Year: 2nd(Vikings), 2nd (Bills) 4th, 4th(Davis Comp pick), 4th(Bears Trade) 5th, 5th (Floyd Comp pick), 6, 6(Basham Trade)......this leaves the Bills with 9 draft picks next year.

 

I think this is a very plausible scenario for Rome if he falls.

 

 

I would do this in a heartbeat for one of the top 3 guys. Would also give up a little less for 15-18ish and go for Thomas. 

[BillsFanForever19]

7 hours ago, Virgil said:

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

 

For those interested in trading up, here's some scenarios.  This is not to say that I want to Bills to make any of these moves.  Just putting information out there.

 

Bills Picks - Value

#28 - 660

#60 - 300

#128 - 44

#133 - 39.5

2025 #1 - 300

2025 #2 132

2025 #2 (Diggs) - 150?

 

These are the values of different tiers in the top 20 for this draft:

5 - 1700

10 - 1300

15 - 1050

20 - 850

 

So, for those who want a top 4 receiver, which are projected to go in the top 10-15, you'd be looking at:

Top 10 - 1300 Value - #28, #60, #133, 2025 #1 

Top 15 - 1050 Value - #28, #60 or next year's 1st, and #2 next year from Diggs trade

 

For me, that's way to rich for my blood in such a deep draft class.  But, I also wouldn't be surprised if one of them fell beyond 10.

 

That's the old Jimmy Johnson model. It's out of date. Belichick called it out of date 5 years ago (https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/bill-belichick-every-team-uses-the-same-draft-chart) Beane on McAfee mentioned there's more modern charts than that one.

 

I tend to go off the Rich Hill model. They even say on that very page that it's more reflective of trades in modern years than that chart is:

 

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

 

I'd also add there's variables outside of the chart that determines price. When it's a less talented Draft, prices are lower. When there's an all time talent at play, the price is more. 

Edited April 4 by BillsFanForever19

[TheBeaneBandit]

7 hours ago, BeastMaster said:

The draft value chart is simply a guideline for those that don't know

 

Teams have done deals that were significantly less and significantly more on the chart, so ultimately it doesn't mean a whole lot

Right. It's really just a loose guideline. Who falls/what position will determine different scenarios.

[27yankees]

Trade 2024 1 + 2025 1/2 to Arizona for this years 35, 66, 71, 90

get's  2 WR, 1 DT, 1 Safety all capable of starting right away

[Reed83HOF]

This is easy - Julio Jones it for Odunze with NYG at 6

[pennstate10]

9 hours ago, Virgil said:

 

Top 15 - 1050 Value - #28, 2025 1st, and #2 next year from Diggs trade

 

If there were any move I'd be willing to make, it would be this one.  I think we all know what holes this team will have for the next few years as the age purge is already happening.  I want to keep my picks this year, because we could get that Top 4 WR, and still get a starting G/C, and DL/S with our top picks.  Next year, we wouldn't have our first, but the value is here this year.  We wouldn't miss the 2nd from the Diggs trade.  So I view it as getting a top 4 receiver at the cost of our 1st next year.  I'm good with that

 

#12 - 1200

Bills - #1 2024 - 660 + Bills 2025 #1 300 = 960

 

That math doesn't math at all

I dont know.  Theres a chart, and then there are real life trades.

 

"The Chiefs moved up to 10th overall by sending their first-round pick that year (27th overall) to Buffalo, along with a 2017 third-round choice (No. 91 overall) and KC's 2018 first-round pick."

[BillsFanForever19]

1 minute ago, Reed83HOF said:

This is easy - Julio Jones it for Odunze with NYG at 6

 

Seems fairly obvious that QB's will make up 4 of the first 5 picks. Minnesota with their ammo of 2 Round 1 Picks this year above ours and their need at QB is going to trade into 4 or 5 for the last of the 4 Top QB's with a high 1st Round Grade.

 

Pick 6 tends to have either MHJ or Nabers available in most mocks. I definitely like Odunze. But if we were to trade to 6 with the board going as most expect it to, Odunze would not be my pick there.

[Reed83HOF]

Just now, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Seems fairly obvious that QB's will make up 4 of the first 5 picks. Minnesota with their ammo of 2 Round 1 Picks this year above ours and their need at QB is going to trade into 4 or 5 for the last of the 4 Top QB's with a high 1st Round Grade.

 

Pick 6 tends to have either MHJ or Nabers available in most mocks. I definitely like Odunze. But if we were to trade to 6 with the board going as most expect it to, Odunze would not be my pick there.

 

Every year the QBs are going to to be the top 1-4 picks and it never happens. OTs and the 2 "elite" WRs will go and I would wager 2 of the QBs will not go in the top 6...

 

If Nabers or Harrison is there I will be surprised...It's possible, but I am fine with any of those 3