Diggs traded to Texans for picks

[turbo044]

4 minutes ago, nucci said:

Pretty amazing that football people don't get this. Kincaid, Cook and Samuel will get plenty of targets

Shakir too

[SoonerBillsFan]

53 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Crazy with the target share
 

One produced,one didn't.   I said repeatedly, and got bashed for it, Diggs quit halfway through the season.  I still stand by what I saw.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Remember the guy who tormented us for two decades?

 

Yeah, that Bill Belichick. Remember what that guy used to do with old talent?

 

Yeah, sent them packing.

 

I'll never complain about my team behaving in that way, it's good football business

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

6 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:

Brian Thomas has huge bust potential. Doesn't seem to have good hands, doesn't display toughness, and hasn't shown the ability to run good routes either

 

I get that he's big and fast, but the tape doesn't lie. He either ran by people and was wide open, or he caught a screen pass and made a play. It certainly didn't hurt having Nabers on the other side with Daniels as the QB either 

 

He is a project that might not ever realize his potential. It's not what this team needs

So who do you want and why?

[PBF81]

8 minutes ago, nucci said:

Pretty amazing that football people don't get this. Kincaid, Cook and Samuel will get plenty of targets

 

Well, the coverage will be tighter on them, so it remains to be seen how they respond when covered more tightly.  

 

 

[Beck Water]

6 minutes ago, boyst said:

i remember watching people cover film and going after Davis to see whats going on and the whole time i would notice only single coverage on Diggs with a floating safety over the top pretty much ignoring him half the time.

 

This past season, Diggs was NOT getting open against physical man coverage by top CBs like Sneed.  It was notable.  Give him Kader Kohou and he'd eat him for brunch, of course.

 

In previous seasons, IIRC I read that the Bills were one of the bottom teams for % man because they ate it alive.  They didn't even see that much man 2022 IIRC  - McKenzie could eat man.  I believe I saw this year the Bills faced one of the highest % man coverage. 

Why?  Because they couldn't exploit it.

 

 

[nucci]

5 minutes ago, turbo044 said:

Shakir too

right, forgot him

[One Buffalo]

 

Good point.  And with the potentially high 2nd round pick as well, the deal looks pretty good from a future (beyond 2024) perspective. 

[nucci]

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, the coverage will be tighter on them, so it remains to be seen how they respond when covered more tightly.  

 

 

why...teams will still play zone and man to man against us ....players will be single covered. They'll get open.

[BeastMaster]

Just now, LABILLBACKER said:

So who do you want and why?

I like Legette. He reminds me of AJ Brown...just a physical guy that can run and catch. He's big and fast enough with the physicality to win contested catches.

 

I also like Coleman, although I'm not sure he's quite fast enough to be a number one.

 

My preference is to get two guys in the first two rounds. I would be fine standing pat and drafting someone at 28 with a trade back for Legette, or Coleman, or Mitchell, or Worthy. 

 

I am not opposed to drafting Thomas, but I'm not moving up for him, and I'm getting another guy that is more NFL ready so he isn't forced into trying to be the guy right away.

 

[Avisan]

7 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Long rant

 

Buddy, Mario Manningham and David Three both did basically nothing with their careers outside of improbable Superbowl catches for the Giants.  Diggs was a middling-to-poor postseason player for us that ALSO did not have any big step-up moments.  That is eminently replaceable in the postseason, and there is no reason why a different player would be any less likely to step up than he was.

 

Even the very best teams have a pretty poor probability of winning the playoffs in any given year.  Let's do a math exercise.

 

Team X is a dominant roster with great coaching.  They catch a first round bye.  They have an 80% chance to win the divisional roound.  They have a 75% chance to win the AFCCG.  70% to beat the best team in the NFC.  They are THAT good.

 

What are the odds that they win the Superbowl in this hypothetical?

 

42%.  This utterly dominant team that wins, at worst, 7 out of every 10 games they play against the best the league can offer, would win the Superbowl less than half the time.

 

I would give the Bills a ~10% chance this season, same as about any other season.  75% chance to win the wildcard round with 50/50s the rest of the way, which I feel like lines up pretty well with the past results we've seen.

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, One Buffalo said:

 

Good point.  And with the potentially high 2nd round pick as well, the deal looks pretty good from a future (beyond 2024) perspective. 

Good point? You'd have the player on the roster.

That's like saying you can save $300 you planned on spending on groceries by lighting $250 on fire and then just not eating. The math only works if you ignore what the values represent.

[uticaclub]

10 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Remember the guy who tormented us for two decades?

 

Yeah, that Bill Belichick. Remember what that guy used to do with old talent?

 

Yeah, sent them packing.

 

I'll never complain about my team behaving in that way, it's good football business

 

 

He did, but never but himself in a position with bad contracts like Diggs & Miller

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, nucci said:

why...teams will still play zone and man to man against us ....players will be single covered. They'll get open.

 

We'll see to what extent that happens and whether or not it makes up for half of Allen's numbers on the receiving end.  It'll be great if it's that simple.  Shakir's the one we should have our eyes on.  Samuel's a known quantity.  

 

 

[Ga boy]

32 minutes ago, turbo044 said:

Yep - that was me I think.  I believe trading up to 5/6 cost too much,  so I think Beane Monitors Thomas II and if he falls to the late teens, he tries to trade #28 and a 2025 2nd to move up and grab him.  If Thomas II goes earlier than 15, he does something like this mock draft I just did.

#28 McConkey

Trade #60, #133 and #160 to PHI for #50

#50 Legette (note: Coleman and Polk arestill available too if Beane prefers either).  Perhaps, if it played out this way, Beane wouldn't trade up and just wait to see who last to #60

I think our best chance is 11 or 12 with Denver and Minny to get one of the top 3.  The teams in the teens either need WRs or wouldn’t want to help us.  In the 20s, Philly or Minny might be potential trade partners.  Also, we can move back and get Legette and Coleman.  Both of them, along with Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel and Shorter, would make our offense scary.

[nucci]

Just now, PBF81 said:

 

We'll see to what extent that happens and whether or not it makes up for half of Allen's numbers on the receiving end.  It'll be great if it's that simple.  Shakir's the one we should have our eyes on.  Samuel's a known quantity.  

 

 

I know what you're saying but it is that simple. Football is not a complicated game.  You run patterns and get open. We'll be fine

[SoonerBillsFan]

12 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Remember the guy who tormented us for two decades?

 

Yeah, that Bill Belichick. Remember what that guy used to do with old talent?

 

Yeah, sent them packing.

 

I'll never complain about my team behaving in that way, it's good football business

 

 

Beane said at the beginning of this offseason he is learning.  So far he is showing it.

[Motorin']

Just now, BullBuchanan said:

Good point? You'd have the player on the roster.

That's like saying you can save $300 you planned on spending on groceries by lighting $250 on fire and then just not eating. The math only works if you ignore what the values represent.

 

And what if the $300 worth of groceries are already half rotten, and you probably won't even get $25 worth of food out of it? Then you saved $25. 

 

Except the Bills save 25 million next year they can spend else where. And the year after, and the year after.

[DJB]

 

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Good point? You'd have the player on the roster.

That's like saying you can save $300 you planned on spending on groceries by lighting $250 on fire and then just not eating. The math only works if you ignore what the values represent.

Only if Diggs has more value here than not, which clearly Beane doesn’t necessarily agree with you on.