So, those of you who have won your league

[drnykterstein]

It all depends on how many teams are in the league.  I am in a 14 team league which requires that you start 2 RB's.  By the end of the 3rd round, most teams have selected 2 RB's(some will even take 3 in 3 rounds) and if you are one of the teams that hasn't, you are basically looking at a crapshoot for a starting RB, let alone depth at RB.  This poses a problem down the line because nobody usually has great depth at RB, so trading for one is virtually impossible, even if you are strong at another position.

 

just my 2 cents.

375053[/snapback]

Yeah, rules of the league were

2 RB's/2WR's or 3WR's/1RB. 12 man league.

most teams in the league went 2/2. for half of the games I went 3/1 and then when I was able to dig up 2 starting RB's I went 2/2.

 

my general starting linup was

bulger/goings/suggs/moss/harrison/mcmichaels/akers/bills

and somehow that linup dominated every week (only near the end of the season though). someone from my team stepped up every week.

 

there were two players in my league that went RB in the first 4 rounds. neither of them made the playoffs.

 

also I rember how i lost the championship now. I started volek instead of bulger, that was the week volek got 2 fantasy points. suck suck suck, why did I not trust my proven starter.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

I won 3 out of 8 leagues last year. In those leagues, I was strong at HB. It depends on your league's settings, but HBs are usually the most important. A good HB over an average one can make a huge difference whereas a good WR over an average one isn't as big. Also, you have to make the right moves and hope your gambles pay off (like picking up JJ last year). So, yeah, luck plays a big part too.

374161[/snapback]

 

This is my philosophy as well. RBs make you or break you. A healthy priest Holmes catapulted me to an 8-0 start and a spot in the championship game.

 

Of course, when he got hurt, I was scrambling to find his replacement. Fortunately, I had Donovan McNabb on my squad as well.

[Thorolf]

So if Payton Manning was available for your first pick, you wouldn't take him? Madness.

370562[/snapback]

 

In my opinion, the 'madness' is taking Manning in the first round.

 

Think about it... he had a career year last season that he is, quite honestly, VERY unlikely to repeat. But even if he does match last year's numbers - he was typically a third or fourth round pick last year. How many of your league champions had him as their QB?

 

I was in 13 leagues last year. He was the QB on exactly ONE - and that team also had Shaun Alexander, a couple of good receivers, and Antonio Gates.

 

Now, he is being taken in the first, and I am not a fan of the tactic. I see guys who no longer have a first round RB (70-75% chance to be in the top-10), and so must rely on a second-round RB to succeed (about 40% chance to be in the top-10). Then, they will normally have to take an RB in the third round because starters are getting scarce (unlikely to make it to the top-10 or -15). In a league that starts 2 RBs, by this point the team has sacrificed approximately 12-15 points per game in order to gain 5 by locking up Manning.

 

But wait, there's more. Because many people will have a receiver by the end of the third round, our fateful Manning picker now is unable to get a first-tier WR, and will often have a difficult time finding a second-tier WR. Now, other guys start going for QBs, so the draft begins to even out, but it is rarely looking all that good for the guy who took Manning.

 

Maybe I'll be proven wrong and Manning will carry an otherwise weak team on his shoulders - but I doubt it. He may score 5-10 points per game higher than, say, the #10 to #15 QBs, but that isn't enough to make up for the loss of points taken by backing up the skill position players by at least a round each.

[Buftex]

In my opinion, the 'madness' is taking Manning in the first round.

 

Think about it... he had a career year last season that he is, quite honestly, VERY unlikely to repeat. But even if he does match last year's numbers - he was typically a third or fourth round pick last year. How many of your league champions had him as their QB?

 

 

378209[/snapback]

 

 

Wow, that has to be a typo! You were in 13 leauges last year, and Manning was typically a 3rd or 4th round pick, in each? He has gone in the top 5 each of the last 4 years in my leauge, he was #1 overall last year.

 

Anyway, I generally agree with you about QB's, but Manning is the one QB who I would make the exception for. He had a career year last year, and played (and generally plays) at a very high level over the last 3 years or so. He threw 49 friggin' TD's man! Even if he doesn't repeat that feat, I bet, barring injury, he still throws somewhere in the 40 range. If you can get a QB who tops 30, you are doing great, but 40? I am not sure why you think his numbers will fall off so damatically. Remember, his playoff meltdowns don't mean anything in FF. He is the closest thing to Marino going right now, and is still very young, injury free, and has basically the same cast returning as last year.

[Thorolf]

Nope... no typo. The ADP on Manning from most draft sites frequently had him in the third-to-fourth rounds last year.

 

And it's not that I think his numbers will drop dramatically, but that they WILL drop. If he couldn't carry a guy's team last year with a career season being drafted in the third or fourth rounds, where is the logic that says he can more than make up for a stud RB and pushing your RB2 and WR1 back at least a round?

 

Manning is no exception. He's a stud QB, but in most leagues today he simply is not worth a first round pick. The difference in the RB and WR corps for guys who have taken Manning so far this year is often quite painful to look at. One of the guys I work with recently drafted in a CBS Sportsline Experts league, and one of those guys took Manning in the early first round. His RBs and WRs were, frankly, horrible. He's going to NEED Kevan Barlow and Travis Henry to be studs just to be mediocre, IMO.

 

I never like leaving my future entirely to luck or 'deus ex machina'... and these guys who are taking Manning in the first (especially the upper portion of the first) are all too often relying on divine intervention to transform their mid-round RBs into studs...

 

I should note that I'm not just making things up here... I am either in, or familiar with several hundred drafts, and have been for the last few years. There are guys I work with who are in favor of Manning being drafted in the LATE first, and we have some good discussions about it. We will see at the end of the year who is right, but at this point I feel pretty strongly that I am. If you are in a competitive league with guys who generally follow the stud-RB theory, I simply do not believe taking Manning in the first is a wise move.

 

Now, as I alluded to earlier, if you are in a league with guys who do NOT follow the stud-RB theory, or you are drafting with monkeys, then you can afford to take him and stock up on the stud RBs that the other guys did not draft in the first... but I don't play in any of those leagues.

 

So, to sum up... evaluate your leaguemates, and look for any scoring rules that dramatically reduce the value of an RB in comparison to QBs and WRs. If things are fairly standard, then it's gotta be an RB.

[slothrop]

Nope... no typo. The ADP on Manning from most draft sites frequently had him in the third-to-fourth rounds last year.

 

And it's not that I think his numbers will drop dramatically, but that they WILL drop. If he couldn't carry a guy's team last year with a career season being drafted in the third or fourth rounds, where is the logic that says he can more than make up for a stud RB and pushing your RB2 and WR1 back at least a round?

 

Manning is no exception. He's a stud QB, but in most leagues today he simply is not worth a first round pick. The difference in the RB and WR corps for guys who have taken Manning so far this year is often quite painful to look at. One of the guys I work with recently drafted in a CBS Sportsline Experts league, and one of those guys took Manning in the early first round. His RBs and WRs were, frankly, horrible. He's going to NEED Kevan Barlow and Travis Henry to be studs just to be mediocre, IMO.

 

I never like leaving my future entirely to luck or 'deus ex machina'... and these guys who are taking Manning in the first (especially the upper portion of the first) are all too often relying on divine intervention to transform their mid-round RBs into studs...

 

I should note that I'm not just making things up here... I am either in, or familiar with several hundred drafts, and have been for the last few years. There are guys I work with who are in favor of Manning being drafted in the LATE first, and we have some good discussions about it. We will see at the end of the year who is right, but at this point I feel pretty strongly that I am. If you are in a competitive league with guys who generally follow the stud-RB theory, I simply do not believe taking Manning in the first is a wise move.

 

Now, as I alluded to earlier, if you are in a league with guys who do NOT follow the stud-RB theory, or you are drafting with monkeys, then you can afford to take him and stock up on the stud RBs that the other guys did not draft in the first... but I don't play in any of those leagues.

 

So, to sum up... evaluate your leaguemates, and look for any scoring rules that dramatically reduce the value of an RB in comparison to QBs and WRs. If things are fairly standard, then it's gotta be an RB.

379444[/snapback]

 

 

A whole lot of words to say that Value Based Drafting is the only way to go. The key word is your draft the player with the most VALUE and not necessarily because he scores the most points. For example, Hasselbeck scores twice as much points as Tony Gonzolez - but Gonzolez has twice as much VALUE. If you do not understand this you are destined to lose your league - just give your money away.

 

I would NEVER draft MAnning before the third round because I would be sacrificing too much value at other positions. I can pick up great value at QB in the rounds 5-7 while maximizing value at my other positions.