TSW Mock Draft 1.0 - Completed

[Mark Vader]

7 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

The Arizona Cardinals draft is over:

 

1st Round (#4)- Marvin Harrison Jr WR Ohio State

Others considered for the pick- None

 

1st Round(#27)- Terrion Arnold CB Alabama

Others considered for the pick- None

 

2nd Round(#35)- Xavier Legette WR South Carolina

Others Considered for the pick- Ladd McConkey, Chop Robinson(Gone), Zach Frazier OG

 

3rd Round(#66)- Bralen Trice DE Washington

Others Considered for the pick- Adissa Isaac DE, Kris Jenkins(Gone), Braden Fiske (Gone)

 

3rd Round(#71)- Trey Benson RB Florida State

Others Considered for the pick- Christian Haynes OG, Cole Bishop S, Junior Colson LB, Isaac DE

 

3rd Round(#90)- Cole Bishop SAF Utah

Others Considered for the pick- Colson LB(Gone), Haynes(Gone), Van Pran (Gone), Trotter (Gone)

 

 

Overall, I'm damn happy with the value I got in this draft. A lot of skill positions but I arguably came away with the best WR, CB, and RB in this draft in my 3 rounds. I thought about taking Zach Frazier at 35 and to be honest probably should have made that move with the remaining WR's left on the board but I wanted to pair the safe Harrison with a high upside WR in Legette instead of another floor player in McConkey. Trice is a high motor Defensive end who isn't the best athlete but never quits on plays and actually has a very advanced repertoire of pass rush moved. He'll get that opportunity in Arizona's 3-4. Benson and Bishop are players who will get PT in 2024 but will eventually take over for their incumbents in 2025 who will be Free Agents.

 

 

Now let's wait a few years when they all become unrestricted free agents and want to get the HELL out of Arizona.

[TheWeatherMan]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In my top 100 over 40% are WR and OL. I don't think it is miles off at all.

The OL alone makes up 46% of the starting offense and 23% when combining them with the starting defensive positions.  When you include WRs (2) it becomes 64%/32%.  
 

In your top 100 you say 40% are OL and WR, that’s not far off from the 32% of the starting positions they would fill.   WRs make up 9% (13% in 3 WR packages) of the starting positions.  
 

So from a numbers standpoint OL/WR soaks up 32% of starting bullets, which you have at 40% in your top 100.  WR takes up 9% and has 25% of the top 64 in this mock draft.  Lots of additional things to consider but from my numbers the 17 WRs bring drafted top 64 is a significantly greater anomaly than 40 OL/WR top 100.  
 

7 WRs is the record for most WRs drafted in the first round (2004).  More than doubling that # through the end of the second round would be unprecedented and a massive historical anomaly.  Without looking it up and based on the numbers above, I doubt you can say this when combining OL into the fold.

 

Bottom line, I don’t think your statement makes 17 WRs going top 64 seem less crazy, it does the opposite.  

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

The OL alone makes up 46% of the starting offense and 23% when combining them with the starting defensive positions.  When you include WRs (2) it becomes 64%/32%.  
 

In your top 100 you say 40% are OL and WR, that’s not far off from the 32% of the starting positions they would fill.   WRs make up 9% (13% in 3 WR packages) of the starting positions.  
 

So from a numbers standpoint OL/WR soaks up 32% of starting bullets, which you have at 40% in your top 100.  WR takes up 9% and has 25% of the top 64 in this mock draft.  Lots of additional things to consider but from my numbers the 17 WRs bring drafted top 64 is a significantly greater anomaly than 40 OL/WR top 100.  
 

7 WRs is the record for most WRs drafted in the first round (2004).  More than doubling that # through the end of the second round would be unprecedented and a massive historical anomaly.  Without looking it up and based on the numbers above, I doubt you can say this when combining OL into the fold.

 

Bottom line, I don’t think your statement makes 17 WRs going top 64 seem less crazy, it does the opposite.  

 

13 in the first two rounds is the record that has happened twice in the past four drafts. That is going to be broken this year. Whether it is 17, Im not sure. A couple of those that went here felt reaches. But equally Javon Baker who just went here is going to go much earlier come draft night. 

 

The strength of this class early is WR and OT. That is where the runs will be. It is a weak RB class. A weak TE class. A weak LB class. A weak safety class at the top (they will come into their own more in rounds 3 and 4). So I think 17 might be one or two higher than reality but not more than that.

[GunnerBill]

With the 99th pick of the 2024 TSW v1.0 mock draft, the Los Angeles Rams select:

 

Jaden Hicks, Safety, Washington State

 

The Rams have done a decent job rebuilding their secondary this offseason with Darious Williams returning and Tre White and Kamren Curl joining. However, they could still stand to add at safety. Hicks is a smart player. I love his instincts and he has the versatility to play in the box or as a single high. The question was speed, especially when he didn't run at the Combine but a 4.49 at his pro day is good enough to make sure he goes day 2. I'm happy to snap him up at this spot.

 

@Alphadawg7 and the Washington Commanders are on the clock to round us out.

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, mannc said:

With the 96th selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars select DJ James, CB, Auburn.  
 

With this comp pick, we’re able to add one of the three best man-coverage corners in this year’s draft.  Unlike the two Alabama corners who were picked in round 1, James was constantly asked to cover number 1 SEC receivers man-to-man and he held up very well.

 

We are extremely pleased with our top three picks this year, each of whom shores up an area of need:  Laiatu Latu, Roman Wilson and DJ James.

 

@Might Rather and the Cincinnati Burrows are on the clocks.

 

 

 

I was hoping everyone would forget about him because of his ridiculously low ranking on the googlesheet. 2nd round talent to me. Surprised he lasted this long.

[Alphadawg7]

With the 100th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Washington Commanders select:  Cade Stover, TE, Ohio State

 

Recruited as a LB who also played DE, Cade has shown adaptability and promise despite only playing TE full time 2 seasons.  He brings a nice blend of toughness and explosiveness making him an exciting player both as a receiver and blocker despite his relative inexperience and we believe he can continue to grow as a TE and come in and compete to start.  
 

With that pick, the Commanders 3 round is complete and we couldn’t be more excited about the new look offense and exciting new defensive pieces for our new coaching staff to get to work with and carry this franchise into a new era.  
 

Draft Recap:

2 - Drake Maye, QB North Carolina

36 - Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia

40 - Cooper Beebee, OL, Kansas State

67 - Austin Cooper, DE, Kansas

78 - Jeremiah Trotter Jr, LB, Clemson

100 - Cade Stover, TE, Ohio State

 

Obviously with me having the final pick, you saved the best for last.  Thank you @Virgil for another great draft, and you’re welcome for me once again carrying this draft and now anchoring it here at the end and putting a ribbon on it per uge.  I know, I know…it’s really cool of me to participate without compensation, no need to keep thanking me because I’m so humble and just happy to give back.  The charitable tax write off I get is thanks enough.  If anyone is still reading this post and come this far then you may need to evaluate your life and schedule more outside time.  😂

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mrags]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

With the 99th pick of the 2024 TSW v1.0 mock draft, the Los Angeles Rams select:

 

Jaden Hicks, Safety, Washington State

 

The Rams have done a decent job rebuilding their secondary this offseason with Darious Williams returning and Tre White and Kamren Curl joining. However, they could still stand to add at safety. Hicks is a smart player. I love his instincts and he has the versatility to play in the box or as a single high. The question was speed, especially when he didn't run at the Combine but a 4.49 at his pro day is good enough to make sure he goes day 2. I'm happy to snap him up at this spot.

 

@Alphadawg7 and the Washington Commanders are on the clock to round us out.

 

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I was hoping everyone would forget about him because of his ridiculously low ranking on the googlesheet. 2nd round talent to me. Surprised he lasted this long.

I absolutely love Hicks. Want him for the Bills for sure. I was going to take him for Green Bay but opted for Williams for the dual threat as S and OLB. Then I really wanted to take him a few picks later but couldn’t pass up on Lloyd there either. 

[Doc Brown]

Thanks as always @Virgil.  I'm afraid for this board to do another mock draft because Beane might trade Josh Allen in the middle of it.

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, mrags said:

 

I absolutely love Hicks. Want him for the Bills for sure. I was going to take him for Green Bay but opted for Williams for the dual threat as S and OLB. Then I really wanted to take him a few picks later but couldn’t pass up on Lloyd there either. 

 

I like him a lot too and I think I like him the best of all the safeties as a potential Bills fit. I think I'd probably have taken Bishop ahead of him as a fit for the Rams had he been there..... because they do a bit more bringing their safeties up to play man coverage in some packages and Bishop is better at that than Hicks, but if I was the Bills who really need their safeties to be zone specialists who can mix up looks, bait QBs into throws and then close quickly on the ball and make plays I'd be Hicks > Bishop. I think both are really good players who will go day 2 and it wouldn't stun me if one of them snuck into the bottom of the second round. 

[mrags]

32 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I like him a lot too and I think I like him the best of all the safeties as a potential Bills fit. I think I'd probably have taken Bishop ahead of him as a fit for the Rams had he been there..... because they do a bit more bringing their safeties up to play man coverage in some packages and Bishop is better at that than Hicks, but if I was the Bills who really need their safeties to be zone specialists who can mix up looks, bait QBs into throws and then close quickly on the ball and make plays I'd be Hicks > Bishop. I think both are really good players who will go day 2 and it wouldn't stun me if one of them snuck into the bottom of the second round. 

There’s quite a few safeties I like in this draft. Bishop. Bullock, Bullard, Hicks, Oladapo, Smith, Carlies. Any of them could go as early as the late 2nd but most likely 3rd to 4th rd. If I’m the one drafting, and you told me we could get any of these guys in the 4th I’d be fine with it. Knowing I can use picks in rds 1-3 on other positions and believe I can get a future starter at S in rd4. 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, mrags said:

There’s quite a few safeties I like in this draft. Bishop. Bullock, Bullard, Hicks, Oladapo, Smith, Carlies. Any of them could go as early as the late 2nd but most likely 3rd to 4th rd. If I’m the one drafting, and you told me we could get any of these guys in the 4th I’d be fine with it. Knowing I can use picks in rds 1-3 on other positions and believe I can get a future starter at S in rd4. 

 

Rounds 3 and 4 are where the value is at safety IMO. I have Nubin and Bullock with 2nds, but then a bunch or 3rd and 4th round grades. The issue for the Bills is their lack of a pick there. The 68 picks between our 2nd rounder and our first 4th rounder is really the sweet spot where a lot of those guys will go. 

[GunnerBill]

Okay, so this is a bit of a LAMP...... but it's Parliamentary recess here in the UK so my days are much quieter and I though I'd have a look back at the 2023 TSW Virgil Mocks. 

 

In version 1 I GM'd the Steelers and selected Broderick Jones at #17

In version 2 I GM'd the Packers and selected Lukas Van Ness at #15

 

In the real draft both teams traded UP Green Bay to 13 and Pittsburgh to 14 to select exactly those two players. So if you want to get your money on Newton to the Rams now is your chance 😂

 

In version 3 I went Jalen Carter over Witherspoon to the Seahawks sadly. Broke my streak. 

[Kirby Jackson]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay, so this is a bit of a LAMP...... but it's Parliamentary recess here in the UK so my days are much quieter and I though I'd have a look back at the 2023 TSW Virgil Mocks. 

 

In version 1 I GM'd the Steelers and selected Broderick Jones at #17

In version 2 I GM'd the Packers and selected Lukas Van Ness at #15

 

In the real draft both teams traded UP Green Bay to 13 and Pittsburgh to 14 to select exactly those two players. So if you want to get your money on Newton to the Rams now is your chance 😂

 

In version 3 I went Jalen Carter over Witherspoon to the Seahawks sadly. Broke my streak. 

I had the Panthers and took Stroud over Bryce Young. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I had the Panthers and took Stroud over Bryce Young. 🤷🏻‍♂️

 

Haha. Well at least you can console yourself that you were right and they were wrong!

[MrEpsYtown]

Nice work everyone! Thank you @Virgil

[stinky finger]

Thanks Virgil and fellow GMs. This is always a blast. Love the commentary! 
 

looking forward to the next draft! 

[Virgil]

2.0 sign up thread is live

[mrags]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Rounds 3 and 4 are where the value is at safety IMO. I have Nubin and Bullock with 2nds, but then a bunch or 3rd and 4th round grades. The issue for the Bills is their lack of a pick there. The 68 picks between our 2nd rounder and our first 4th rounder is really the sweet spot where a lot of those guys will go. 

I agree. But we’re likely to have 1-2 of them available if we way. And knowing Beane, if he’s got a plan in mind for one of these guys to come in be a starter maybe not this year but as early as next year, he’ll move back up to snag one. I’m not sure of the draft value of those later rd picks we have, but I’d imagine a package bundle of a few of them to get up and get one if they feel it’s worth it.