To my gamblers- Interesting odds change regarding where Diggs plays in 24

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

I would move Diggs for a 1st rounder or early 2nd rounder and yes take the dead cap. It would allow us to get much younger at WR by taking two guys with elite traits early in the draft and grow with Allen. Diggs at best has 2 more solid seasons in him imo

 

 

lol who wouldn't??  might as well ask for 5 1st rounders.

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

To me the explanation behind the Cowboys odds drop does not make sense.  Why would being stagnant decrease their odds?   They added no one of note and lost T Pollard, Gallup, and an OLman.  And Philly signed Barkley.

 

The lack of hype and talk has got to be killing J Jones.  Adding Diggs would be huge in terms of talk and increased odds/eyeballs.  Also giving Dak the weapons of Cee Dee and Diggs and going with a heavy passing attack could help in determining what they do in the future contract of Dak (which seems in question).

 

Gonzo above (and seconded by Mr WEO) seem to think moving Diggs for a 1st would be something they would like.  Then Dallas seems to be in play to me. 

[bigK14094]

On 3/30/2024 at 7:29 PM, JerseyBills said:

 httpsnames://torotimes.com/posts/houston-texans-make-major-jump-in-stefon-diggs-next-team-odds-01ht5m9ag0r9

So I would never say never but we all know there's pretty much no chance Stef is traded , unless it's an offer Beane just can't refuse, but what I find interesting here are the odds on where Diggs starts in 2024 and as a gambler I'm likely going to put my $ where my mouth is because these odds are great and it's easy easy $.

 

From article - When DraftKings Sportsbook first released odds on Stefon Diggs’ next team in February, the Buffalo Bills were big favorites (-300) to retain the four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver while the Houston Texans were 10-to-1 to land to get him. 

 

For non gamblers you'd need to spend 300 to win 100 on Diggs staying in Buf and spend 10$ to win 100 if he landed in Hou.. 

 

Back to article - 

There’s been a shift in those odds over the last month with Houston jumping up the board, though the odds are still projecting a return to Buffalo. By March 18, DraftKings’ new odds had Buffalo as the favorite (-230) and Houston up to +550 - again as the third-favorite - behind the Dallas Cowboys (+400).

With the Cowboys being stagnant in free agency, they’ve dropped to +850 to land Diggs while Houston’s price has been bumped to +350 in the latest market shift. Those odds carry an implied probability of 22.22% that Houston would make a giant splash by giving quarterback C.J. Stroud an elite outside weapon next season. 

 

So now, big difference , you can now spend only 230 to win 100 for Diggs staying in Buff and Hou dropped all the way to +350, 👀👀 meaning instead of winning 100$ on a 10$ bet , now , a 10$ bet will only win you 35$ if Diggs landed on Houston. That's a MASSIVE DIFFERENCE 

 

Just caught my eye and very interesting to see the numbers move that significantly, especially towards Hou .  I know what I'm doing, I'm 100% putting 1150$ to win an easy 500$ on Diggs starting the season as a Buffalo Bill. Maybe much more. 

 

Just wanted to give my gamblers an easyyyy money maker that is Bills related!🤑

The betting action accounts for the shift in odds. Means nothing in terms of fundamental  considerations by the Bills, Texans or Diggs.

[JerseyBills]

4 hours ago, bigK14094 said:

The betting action accounts for the shift in odds. Means nothing in terms of fundamental  considerations by the Bills, Texans or Diggs.

ya, I'm just saying it's easy $ for -230 to put on Diggs as a Bill, which is 99.9999% happening 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

2 hours ago, bigK14094 said:

The betting action accounts for the shift in odds. Means nothing in terms of fundamental  considerations by the Bills, Texans or Diggs.

While yes, the betting action is accounting for the shift in odds, it doesn't mean the fundamentals are the same.  To me, the situation has shifted more towards Dallas being a player for Diggs.  Lets not forget J Jones quote of Dallas being "All in".  How does that mesh with total inaction in FA?  They lost Pollard/Gallup/OL.  And now there is nothing left in FA to move the needle.  J Jones has to be getting desperate to make a splash.

 

There is a scenario in my mind where Beane has joined in with the McDermott/Brady disgust-fest of Diggs.  It's not just that Diggs dropped huge passes at the end (KC and Denver come to mind) but remember him inexplicably taking himself out on 3rd downs.  I thought for sure we were going to hear of some injury Diggs was playing through (where we would say "what a trooper, tough guy, team man").  Nope, he went and played flag football at the pro bowl.  How can an OC (Brady) like, in any way, his top WR taking himself out on key 3rd downs?  Easy to see how Brady would want Diggs gone, McD wouldn't like the culture disruption, and now Beane -not only didn't Diggs take the pay cut- Diggs publicized it to the team and kind of stuck it to Beane with "Ready for watever" and "Well.." kind of showing he stood up to Beane and got his money.

 

While there will be a cost to it, they can disguise their disgust based move to the public by claiming this was part of the hard choices of the youth movement.  And in the locker room the Beane/McD/Brady would get more respect.  They take the pick from Dallas and add it to 28 and get a big time WR prospect.  All the skill positions except for maybe C Samuel (who Brady has history with) would be looking to Josh as the elder/leader - J Cook/kincaid/new rookie/Shakir.

 

Before I thought there was no way but now I've talked myself into thinking it is a distinct possibility.  I don't think Dallas can wait to June 1st for the headlines though.  So I would need to put the 200 bones on it before the draft.

[Buffalo03]

He just got paid a huge roster bonus. He isn't going anywhere 

[JerseyBills]

On 3/30/2024 at 7:57 PM, BillsFanForever19 said:

Oh yay - another Diggs trade thread. Joy. 

 

If Diggs were to be or will be traded (which was/is very unlikely) - it would have happened before 3/17 and now it wouldn't happen until after 6/1. 

 

Beane's not locking in his 18.5m salary (which was guaranteed on 3/17) first before moving him or taking on a full 31m Dead Cap hit all at once (which is what it would be to do it post 3/17 and before 6/1).

 

I'd be EXTREMELY surprised if it were to happen even after 6/1 and before next season - as, capped or not, I don't see Beane making Pegula dish out an 18.5m dollar check for a player that won't be here. 

your last paragraph is exactly why i started this, because these are extremely good odds for a player we aĺl know is staying! Cash in!

[buffaloboyinATL]

On 3/30/2024 at 7:29 PM, JerseyBills said:

 httpsnames://torotimes.com/posts/houston-texans-make-major-jump-in-stefon-diggs-next-team-odds-01ht5m9ag0r9

So I would never say never but we all know there's pretty much no chance Stef is traded , unless it's an offer Beane just can't refuse, but what I find interesting here are the odds on where Diggs starts in 2024 and as a gambler I'm likely going to put my $ where my mouth is because these odds are great and it's easy easy $.

 

From article - When DraftKings Sportsbook first released odds on Stefon Diggs’ next team in February, the Buffalo Bills were big favorites (-300) to retain the four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver while the Houston Texans were 10-to-1 to land to get him. 

 

For non gamblers you'd need to spend 300 to win 100 on Diggs staying in Buf and spend 10$ to win 100 if he landed in Hou.. 

 

Back to article - 

There’s been a shift in those odds over the last month with Houston jumping up the board, though the odds are still projecting a return to Buffalo. By March 18, DraftKings’ new odds had Buffalo as the favorite (-230) and Houston up to +550 - again as the third-favorite - behind the Dallas Cowboys (+400).

With the Cowboys being stagnant in free agency, they’ve dropped to +850 to land Diggs while Houston’s price has been bumped to +350 in the latest market shift. Those odds carry an implied probability of 22.22% that Houston would make a giant splash by giving quarterback C.J. Stroud an elite outside weapon next season. 

 

So now, big difference , you can now spend only 230 to win 100 for Diggs staying in Buff and Hou dropped all the way to +350, 👀👀 meaning instead of winning 100$ on a 10$ bet , now , a 10$ bet will only win you 35$ if Diggs landed on Houston. That's a MASSIVE DIFFERENCE 

 

Just caught my eye and very interesting to see the numbers move that significantly, especially towards Hou .  I know what I'm doing, I'm 100% putting 1150$ to win an easy 500$ on Diggs starting the season as a Buffalo Bill. Maybe much more. 

 

Just wanted to give my gamblers an easyyyy money maker that is Bills related!🤑

OP, thank you for a great, detailed description. I am not a gambler, in part because I am in Georgia and Draft Kings etc. is not an option for me, so I am never quite sure what the odds mean. (aside from knowing which ones are better or worse) So thanks for the gambling 101.

 

That said, I also believe that Diggs will play in Buffalo again this year.  I assume that someone could offer a trade that somehow eases the dead cap money if we traded him, or at least makes it worthwhile, but I highly doubt it.  

[JerseyBills]

3 hours ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

OP, thank you for a great, detailed description. I am not a gambler, in part because I am in Georgia and Draft Kings etc. is not an option for me, so I am never quite sure what the odds mean. (aside from knowing which ones are better or worse) So thanks for the gambling 101.

 

That said, I also believe that Diggs will play in Buffalo again this year.  I assume that someone could offer a trade that somehow eases the dead cap money if we traded him, or at least makes it worthwhile, but I highly doubt it.  

Appreciate it man!!

Ya it's easy once you do it a few times but I understand how confusing it'd be if you're a non gambler.  And was just shocked and found it interesting at how much the odds dropped, especially on him going to Houston.

[buffaloboyinATL]

58 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Appreciate it man!!

Ya it's easy once you do it a few times but I understand how confusing it'd be if you're a non gambler.  And was just shocked and found it interesting at how much the odds dropped, especially on him going to Houston.

Yeah, I still highly doubt he goes anywhere, but if Houston really wants him, let's ask for Will Anderson in return.  

[Einstein's Dog]

5 hours ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

That said, I also believe that Diggs will play in Buffalo again this year.  I assume that someone could offer a trade that somehow eases the dead cap money if we traded him, or at least makes it worthwhile, but I highly doubt it.  

I don't think you can ease the dead cap money.  The 6/1 talk is about splitting it over another year. 

 

But if the Bills don't like Diggs at his current salary, the dead money can be looked at as a sunk cost. That prepaid cost may be part of an asset for another team though.  A team could trade for his contract and get Diggs at what looks like a discount as compared to other top tier WRs.  For instance it might be an incentive for Dallas to be able to get Diggs for less than $20M/yr (because the Bills have eaten part of the salary).  You can't get a WR of Diggs name/hype level/stature for anywhere near that price tag - look at what Ridley got.

 

Houston makes no sense to me, they don't have a 1st.  But Dallas?  If. for reasons mentioned in the post above, the Bills FO wants to move Diggs (which now is making sense to me), then Dallas looks like the match.  Dallas needs the hype and Dallas has a first.

 

So now the beginning of the draft is must see TV for me, because if Rome Odunze is still around past #8, Beane may move Diggs and a 4th for Dallas' 1st and 3rd.  Then the Bills could package #24 + #28 for a move up to 9 and grab Rome.

[Warriorspikes51]

12 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I don't think you can ease the dead cap money.  The 6/1 talk is about splitting it over another year. 

 

But if the Bills don't like Diggs at his current salary, the dead money can be looked at as a sunk cost. That prepaid cost may be part of an asset for another team though.  A team could trade for his contract and get Diggs at what looks like a discount as compared to other top tier WRs.  For instance it might be an incentive for Dallas to be able to get Diggs for less than $20M/yr (because the Bills have eaten part of the salary).  You can't get a WR of Diggs name/hype level/stature for anywhere near that price tag - look at what Ridley got.

 

Houston makes no sense to me, they don't have a 1st.  But Dallas?  If. for reasons mentioned in the post above, the Bills FO wants to move Diggs (which now is making sense to me), then Dallas looks like the match.  Dallas needs the hype and Dallas has a first.

 

So now the beginning of the draft is must see TV for me, because if Rome Odunze is still around past #8, Beane may move Diggs and a 4th for Dallas' 1st and 3rd.  Then the Bills could package #24 + #28 for a move up to 9 and grab Rome.

more like Diggs, 128 and 3rd next year….and that still may not be enough to

get Dallas #24. Guess it would depend how desperate Jerry Jones is for a splash move. If Jerry thinks a move like that helps Dak stay…could happen

 

 

IF something like that were to happen, I’d be willing to package both to move up….but may be even more intrigued by just grabbing some combo like both Xavier’s instead

Edited April 3 by Warriorspikes51

[Einstein's Dog]

8 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

more like Diggs, 128 and 3rd next year….and that still may not be enough to get Dallas #24. Guess it would depend how desperate Jerry Jones is for a splash move.

 

IF something like that were to happen, I’d be willing to package both to move up….but may be even more intrigued by just grabbing some combo like both Xavier’s instead

I think if Diggs is moved the FO needs to find a way to get one of the big 3 WRs in to take his place.  For the Gabe replacement there can be more leeway in getting someone up to speed.

[Warriorspikes51]

8 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I think if Diggs is moved the FO needs to find a way to get one of the big 3 WRs in to take his place.  For the Gabe replacement there can be more leeway in getting someone up to speed.

Certainly, not a bad idea! 
 

[BillsFanForever19]

40 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

more like Diggs, 128 and 3rd next year….and that still may not be enough to

get Dallas #24. Guess it would depend how desperate Jerry Jones is for a splash move. If Jerry thinks a move like that helps Dak stay…could happen

 

 

IF something like that were to happen, I’d be willing to package both to move up….but may be even more intrigued by just grabbing some combo like both Xavier’s instead

 

And there it is! Like clockwork.

 

 

[HardyBoy]

I'm not sure it's appropriate to have gambling conversations here. 

 

I was for the legalization of gambling, but the daily fantasy apps are highly predatory and designed to create dopamine addiction. The apps are exploitative and targeting young men specifically.

 

 

Edited April 3 by HardyBoy

[zevo]

hope you didn't place that bet 

[BB2004]

On 4/1/2024 at 4:51 PM, JerseyBills said:

ya, I'm just saying it's easy $ for -230 to put on Diggs as a Bill, which is 99.9999% happening 

 

 

There is no such thing as a sure bet

[Cash]

So close, OP!  Great tip that would've paid off if you put some money on Houston.  I'm shocked personally, but much less so than I would've been without this post.  When the odds move that much, someone knows something that the public doesn't.

[Mr. WEO]

#crashandburnthread