Which round are the Bills more likely to trade up....1st or 2nd??

[Special K]

I can see scenarios where the Bills could either trade up or trade down in the 1st and 2nd round, however this question is regarding trade ups.

 

IMO, I think it is a no-brainer that the Bills will try to trade up in the 2nd round....they have enough draft capital to facilitate moving up, and the value at pick 60 does not coincide with the positions the Bills will likely want to fill in the draft.

 

I predict a move up of 10-15 spots in the 2nd to either snag a WR if they go Defense at 28, or to grab a difference-maker on Defense if they get their WR in round one.

 

What do you think??

[WotAGuy]

If anything, it will be third or lower. Their trade ammo is all lower rounds picks. 

[gonzo1105]

Neither. To move up 10 spots in the 2nd round the Bills would have to give up both 4ths and a 6th. 
 

That would leave Buffalo with 30, 50, 2 5ths , 2 6ths and a 7th just can’t see Beane doing it. 
 

 

What I can see is Buffalo making a move into the 30’s picking up an early 4th or 3rd and than maneuvering up whether for another 3rd or moving up in the 2

Edited March 28 by gonzo1105

[The Wiz]

8 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

If anything, it will be third or lower. Their trade ammo is all lower rounds picks. 

Not if you include next years picks.

 

I think this is the year it happens and are going to take a swing and move up a bunch in the 1st or 2nd or both just to get something that give them immediate returns on the field.  Not gonna say which picks and I know they don't like bargaining the future but I think it's about time they take a swing and see what happens.

Edited March 28 by The Wiz

[WotAGuy]

8 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Not if you include next years picks.

 

I think this is the year it happens and are going to take a swing and move up a bunch in the 1st or 2nd or both just to get something that give them immediate returns on the field.  Not gonna say which picks and I know they don't like bargaining the future but I think it's about time they take a swing and see what happens.

Trading next year’s high picks sounds like a good idea until next year when you realize it wasn’t worth it and you need that pick back.  
 

The draft, even the first round, is too much of a crap shoot to trade future picks. The idea is to keep finding Matt Milanos and Terrel Bernards and make the best of your high picks each year. 
 

The Bills might try to get back into the third this year, but I don’t see them using next year’s picks to do it. 

[Warriorspikes51]

Yes.

IMO Beane’s joking comments about taking WR in every round….

 

he MAY be willing to push chips in 

 

2025 1st, 2nd may be used to move up in 1 or both rounds.

 

Beyond trading for Diggs with a 1st, we’ve never invested premium picks at WR

 

this year is the year with value + need to go after the position very aggressively

 

Beane should approach the draft as if the WR depth chart looks like this

 

Samuel

Shakir 

 

 

Diggs is 50/50 gone between now and next summer.  Hollis is a good depth player short term. Shorter is a ? if he makes the 53

Edited March 28 by Warriorspikes51

[Kirby Jackson]

I think either/both are possible. If one of the big 3 WRs slips to 9, I believe that the Bills are going to try to move all of the way up. If Thomas slips, I could see them trying to go up 7-8 spots. Otherwise I think they stay or go back in the 1st. 
 

I think in the 2nd it will be a defensive player. It could be on the DL or a safety. Depending on the board, they may slide up depending on who slips. If someone like Chop Robinson is on the board in the early ‘40’s, the Bills will be looking to go up.

 

They have 11 picks. They won’t pick more than 7-8 guys at this point. They also won’t hesitate to use future capital to get a potential star. They don’t have enough top of the roster talent.

Edited March 28 by Kirby Jackson

[gonzo1105]

16 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Not if you include next years picks.

 

I think this is the year it happens and are going to take a swing and move up a bunch in the 1st or 2nd or both just to get something that give them immediate returns on the field.  Not gonna say which picks and I know they don't like bargaining the future but I think it's about time they take a swing and see what happens.

I think the 3rd round comp pick was a killer and why Beane is pissed about it because that might have been their plan to get Thomas or Mitchell or a sliding Odunze. That 3r rounder was a valuable trade chip. 
 

I don’t see Beane wanting to give up 60.

 

So we’re looking at 30, a 4th this year a 2025 1st(the equivalent of a 2nd rounder this year to get up to around where the Colts are picking. That is in range for Brian Thomas

 

If you want to get a couple picks higher like the Broncos at 12  you can throw in your 2025 3rd rounder

 

 

[BillsFanForever19]

I think the smart move is to stay pat at 28 or Trade down a little bit from there to try and pick up a 3rd or another 4th that we can use to get back up into the 3rd.

 

The only issue with that is finding a partner that wants to move to 28. Prevailing thought is that the type of guys left at 28 aren't too dissimilar to the types of guys you'd find throughout Round 2. And that the real depth of the Draft is in the 2nd and 3rd tiers that spread multiple rounds.

 

If that's the case, it may not be as easy as the Trade Down crowd makes it out to be to find someone who will give up multiple mid rounders for 1 guy still on the board at the end of Round 1.

 

But, anyways, I think the move up makes more sense in Round 2. Getting a difference maker that can play right away at WR (if we were to go DL in Round 1) or DL (if we were to go WR in Round 1) is a dubious proposition at 60. Probably need to get up to at least the middle of Round 2 to secure someone there.

 

In a perfect world, it's a small trade down from 28 (unless someone has fallen) and then a trade up from 60.

[The Wiz]

1 minute ago, WotAGuy said:

Trading next year’s high picks sounds like a good idea until next year when you realize it wasn’t worth it and you need that pick back.  
 

The draft, even the first round, is too much of a crap shoot to trade future picks. The idea is to keep finding Matt Milanos and Terrel Bernards and make the best of your high picks each year. 
 

The Bills might try to get back into the third this year, but I don’t see them using next year’s picks to do it. 

I'm all about them trying to find a "diamond in the rough" but I don't think any of the top 3 WR's are near the same as when we moved up to get Watkins.  I get the feeling that is probably a thing that is causing most people to be weary of the idea of moving up.  But if 2 (1's gets you in that sweet spot.  I'm assuming other late round picks will be included).  Why not go for broke and get one of the top 3 WR's in the draft and a future Diggs replacement that you don't have to worry about paying for 5 years?

 

Could even toss a little spice on it and say trade up in the 1st round (for next years 1st and a 4th this year) and down in the 2nd assuming the 1st was a top flight WR and the 2nd rounder was Polk and gained a late 2nd and another 4th.  Interested then?

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I think the 3rd round comp pick was a killer and why Beane is pissed about it because that might have been their plan to get Thomas or Mitchell or a sliding Odunze. That 3r rounder was a valuable trade chip. 
 

I don’t see Beane wanting to give up 60.

 

So we’re looking at 30, a 4th this year a 2025 1st(the equivalent of a 2nd rounder this year to get up to around where the Colts are picking. That is in range for Brian Thomas

 

If you want to get a couple picks higher like the Broncos at 12  you can throw in your 2025 3rd rounder

 

 

The difference between the 3rd and 4th, in terms of draft value is a mid 4th rounder. Basically the NFL took, the equivalent of the 117th pick away from the Bills.

[The Wiz]

1 minute ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I think the smart move is to stay pat at 28 or Trade down a little bit from there to try and pick up a 3rd or another 4th that we can use to get back up into the 3rd.

My guess is, if this happens, Baltimore or KC is going to jump us again to get a player we want like they did with McDuffie and hopefully Beane isn't gun-shy about going to get the guy even if it cost him and extra pick or 2.

 

Yes, they can turn that 3rd rounder into something to move up in the 2nd round but they are going to be looking at the bottom of the 2nd tier barrel for WR if they don't get one in the first round (and they don't actually need to use that pick but to move up from 60 to low 40's it might cost them close to that or a combo of picks later on).

 

[Warriorspikes51]

I want both LSU WR’s.  Joe Brady, make it happen!  In all seriousness, believe it’s highly likely we will target them. If Nabers makes it to 6, Beane will call Schoen. We CAN afford a Julio Jones style trade
 

Or, if BTJ makes it to 16, we call Seattle

 

an elite offensive weapon is far and away the biggest need on this team. 

Edited March 28 by Warriorspikes51

[The Wiz]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The difference between the 3rd and 4th, in terms of draft value is a mid 4th rounder. Basically the NFL took, the equivalent of the 117th pick away from the Bills.

Those are the rounds that Beane tends to leverage the best though to get teams to move with them.

[julian]

15 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think either/both are possible. If one of the big 3 WRs slips to 9, I believe that the Bills are going to try to move all of the way up. If Thomas slips, I could see them trying to go up 7-8 spots. Otherwise I think they stay or go back in the 1st. 
 

I think in the 2nd it will be a defensive player. It could be on the DL or a safety. Depending on the board, they may slide up depending on who slips. If someone like Chop Robinson is on the board in the early ‘40’s, the Bills will be looking to go up.

 

They have 11 picks. They won’t pick more than 7-8 guys at this point. They also won’t hesitate to use future capital to get a potential star. They don’t have enough top of the roster talent.

All of this seems to be reasonable and it’s exactly how I’m hoping they attack this draft.

[gonzo1105]

23 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

Trading next year’s high picks sounds like a good idea until next year when you realize it wasn’t worth it and you need that pick back.  
 

The draft, even the first round, is too much of a crap shoot to trade future picks. The idea is to keep finding Matt Milanos and Terrel Bernards and make the best of your high picks each year. 
 

The Bills might try to get back into the third this year, but I don’t see them using next year’s picks to do it. 

If the Bills move up and give up their first next year to move up to the teens to get Brian Thomas they still have: 

 

 

2nd,3rd, 4th, 4th(Davis comp pick), 5th, 5th(Floyd Comp pick), 6th, 6th(Basham trade). I think the Bills could live with that. I don’t think they want to dip beyond that 

[BillsFanForever19]

3 hours ago, The Wiz said:

My guess is, if this happens, Baltimore or KC is going to jump us again to get a player we want like they did with McDuffie and hopefully Beane isn't gun-shy about going to get the guy even if it cost him and extra pick or 2.

 

Yes, they can turn that 3rd rounder into something to move up in the 2nd round but they are going to be looking at the bottom of the 2nd tier barrel for WR if they don't get one in the first round (and they don't actually need to use that pick but to move up from 60 to low 40's it might cost them close to that or a combo of picks later on).

 

The general feeling I'm getting reading things and listening to people as we get closer is that the first 3 will be gone in the first 7-10 picks and that it's likely that both Brian Thomas Jr. and Adonai Mitchell will be off the board by 28.

 

After that, the feeling is that there's upwards of 5-10 guys that are lumped together in that 3rd Tier that are all very similarly ranked, depending on the type of WR you're looking for.

 

KC is going to get a guy just as we will. Just have to accept that and get over it. You can't let fear that the guy they're going to get may end up better than the guy we're going to get dictate what we do on Draft Day.

 

There's no guarantee that us moving up to take a WR higher than the 28 is going to yield better results than the guy they could get at 32 or later. Especially when that 2nd-3rd Tier of WR is so deep and so close to each other in level of talent per prospect.

 

At Pick 30-40 - you're still going to get a guy worth taking at 28. All of Xavier Worthy, Xavier Legette, Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman, and Troy Franklin aren't going to all be gone in a small move down. Hell, the guy that Beane prefers there may still be available to him in a small trade down. I have my favorites, but there isn't a ton separating the guy at the top of that list and the bottom, in terms of talent and ceiling level of development.

 

And there isn't a ton separating those guys from guys like Roman Wilson, Malachi Corley, Ja'Lynn Polk, Ricky Pearsall, Tez Walker, and Javon Baker.

 

Long story short, I disagree with the idea of panicking over what KC might get and giving up other assets, especially 60, to take a guy slightly higher rated in prospective projection over the opportunity to add more pieces similarly ranked in rebuilding our roster.

 

If someone like Thomas or Mitchell comes within striking range and Beane really wants him, i'd have no problem with him going to get them. But ideally, you have 3 picks between Day 1 and Day 2 and you use later picks to move around and take 3 guys you really instead of just 2.

 

3 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I want both LSU WR’s.  Joe Brady, make it happen!  In all seriousness, believe it’s highly likely we will target them. If Nabers makes it to 6, Beane will call Schoen. We CAN afford a Julio Jones style trade
 

Or, if BTJ makes it to 16, we call Seattle

 

an elite offensive weapon is far and away the biggest need on this team. 

 

What I see when I read your millionth unlikely WR scenario post of the day

 

Edited March 29 by BillsFanForever19

[Yantha]

The Bills have 8 draft picks in 2025, and 11 in 2024.  That's a LOT of draft capital.

 

I could see a trade up in BOTH rounds if the conditions were right.

 

And don't forget that we could trade a PLAYER as well.

[SoonerBillsFan]

Trade up in both.

[wolfpack78]

I foresee a trade up if Odunze or Thomas falls within reasonable striking distance.  If that doesn’t happen, then trading back and back up in a separate deals to get two picks in the 30s/40s and come away Leggette and then another WR or DT depending on value.