The unsexy, unexciting first round pick

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

Asking that question means that you are just another one of the lemmings who think that maybe, just maybe, Beane and McDermott actually might know what they're doing. 

 

 

Watching Russ Brandon trade away All Pro LT Jason Peters and replacing him with waiver-wire refugees in 2009 convinced me of the importance of having a solid OL.  I think it was 2 or 3 years before the Bills got around to even drafting an actual LT.

 

 

Prioritizing need over talent sets up a team for failure.  A team like the Bills has to make its high draft picks count because the draft is the best place to find the difference makers they need.   If there's a WR and/or DE as well as a C on the board that the Bills have graded as first round talents, they should take the one they think is likely to become a stud.    If there's a first round C on the board but none of the WRs or DEs left are close to his quality, it's a no-brainer to take the C.

 

 

Maurkise Pouncey went to the Stillers at #18 in 2010.   Nine times Pro Bowler, 2 time All Pro.   He retired after the 2020 season.   The only season he failed to make the Pro Bowl was the season he suffered a season-ending injury in the opening game of the season.   He came back the next season to be selected All Pro a second time.

This is a falsehood.  If anything sets you up for failure, it is wasting draft picks trading up for a specific player.  

 

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, Yantha said:

LOL.  Sorry I disagree big time on that one.

 

Big time?   Ok.  What 3 centers in the AFC could McGovern absolutely not be as good as next year?

 

Humphrey and Linderbaum were early picks but a lot of the better centers in the AFC were picked on day 3 or undrafted..........and some of THEM got to center because they weren't good enough to play guard.    McGovern was a stud C recruit,  was a 3rd round pick and has proven himself as a starting G in the NFL.

 

The point is,  there isn't any reason to assume he won't be a strength.

 

Now whether David Edwards is a starting NFL G any longer is a far bigger concern.  

 

And it wouldn't be a surprise if Dion Dawkins game began to decline this season and Spencer Brown prices himself out of Buffalo and suddenly the Bills were going into 2025 wanting 2 new tackles.

 

I am all for addressing OL with multiple picks in this draft........but the 1st round is WAY too early for a center in a draft with stud premium position talent at WR and OT.  

 

  

 

 

[Whites Bay]

30 minutes ago, nosejob said:

Gimme:

Latu

Legette

Sweat

Burton and/ or Walker

M. Smith and do what you want after this..

 

Javon Solomon...

Cedric Johnson

J. Crumedy

 

Feel free to throw in a couple Safeties and CBs.

I don't follow this sh!t anywhere NEAR the way you guys do, so forgive the dumb question.

 

If there's no trading up or down, you're saying Latu in the first, Legette in the second.  Bills don't have a third, much to Beane's consternation.  So that means Sweat is going in the fourth?  Would he last that long?

[Paup 1995MVP]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

Asking that question means that you are just another one of the lemmings who think that maybe, just maybe, Beane and McDermott actually might know what they're doing. 

 

 

Watching Russ Brandon trade away All Pro LT Jason Peters and replacing him with waiver-wire refugees in 2009 convinced me of the importance of having a solid OL.  I think it was 2 or 3 years before the Bills got around to even drafting an actual LT.

 

 

Prioritizing need over talent sets up a team for failure.  A team like the Bills has to make its high draft picks count because the draft is the best place to find the difference makers they need.   If there's a WR and/or DE as well as a C on the board that the Bills have graded as first round talents, they should take the one they think is likely to become a stud.    If there's a first round C on the board but none of the WRs or DEs left are close to his quality, it's a no-brainer to take the C.

 

 

Maurkise Pouncey went to the Stillers at #18 in 2010.   Nine times Pro Bowler, 2 time All Pro.   He retired after the 2020 season.   The only season he failed to make the Pro Bowl was the season he suffered a season-ending injury in the opening game of the season.   He came back the next season to be selected All Pro a second time.

Good answer.  Would not put him up there with the all time greats.  But had a real good career.

[nosejob]

3 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

I'm all in on WR in round 1, but I'll NEVER be against investing in the O-line.

 

It's not as exciting, but a better O-line lifts the entire offensive unit. As long as we're not continuing to ignore the offense, I'll be fine.

But after listening to the radio, it looks like there's at least a dozen Olimen worthy of higher rd. picks. We gotta dress, what 46-53? We should concentrate on impact players and not players for other teams to poach...JMO We have an almost entire Oline in waiting. We need a Bruce Smith, Eric Moulds/Lee Evans or Leonard Smith.

 

I say F=it and use next year's 1st to do it. We need to make an extra 2nd and 3rd this year!

[NoSaint]

10 hours ago, Yantha said:

 

It's a fair point but you can't sign a probowl center.  They all have jobs with other teams at this point.

 

WR is likely the round 1 pick, but remember the thread was about a scenario where our top WRs are all gone by 28, and Beane said he'd pass on WR if the value wasn't there in the pick 28 bracket of players.

Sorry, I just said "WR".....  

 

If none of the WR at 28 have a 1st round grade - we’ve screwed up by not moving up

 

if picking there you then look to pass rushers and guys that effect the qb

 

no luck there? Have to try to move back

 

no luck there? Maybe an OT or CB?

no luck there? May as well trade it for an established guy at a less premium spot since you aren’t saving money anyway. Take the risk out and let someone else get their draft target 

 

to put it in perspective- average centers are paid like good kickers. Bass is the 8th ranked kicker and would be a slightly above average paid center (essentially even with Morse now)

that’s not a top 40 wide receiver or top 50 edge rusher pay check. 
 

could you imagine taking a kicker anywhere near that spot? 

 

Edited March 29 by NoSaint

[BigDingus]

18 minutes ago, nosejob said:

But after listening to the radio, it looks like there's at least a dozen Olimen worthy of higher rd. picks. We gotta dress, what 46-53? We should concentrate on impact players and not players for other teams to poach...JMO We have an almost entire Oline in waiting. We need a Bruce Smith, Eric Moulds/Lee Evans or Leonard Smith.

 

I say F=it and use next year's 1st to do it. We need to make an extra 2nd and 3rd this year!

 

I mostly agree. As I said, I'm also wanting to draft a WR in the 1st.

 

O-Line is impactful though, as it can allow our existing QB/WRs/TEs/RB to thrive & reach their full potential. Josh with a comfortable pocket & time to survey the field would increase his accuracy & decision-making, allow routes to develop for receivers, not allow defenses to pressure the QB without blitzing, open up holes for the RB or Josh to take off, etc.

 

The Chiefs targeted their O-line in FA & the draft and managed to win multiple SBs after trading away one of the top 3 WRs in the game.

 

Building up the OL will help establish everything for years to come, but I say this while still wanting a WR in round 1. If anything, we need a plan in place to replace Diggs when that time comes. It's not about any perceived drama, only the inevitable slowing down.

[4BillsintheBurgh]

6 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Brave putting the bolded on this forum :).   I agree for the most part, I do want them to invest a 1 or 2 in a WR though, mostly for the future rather than this upcoming year.

I want to win a super bowl next year. I understand the wr thought process, it's just a question of when and to what degree a wr can help. I want the help this year, don't care about the future while we have Josh, have to be worried about 2024. 

Edited March 29 by 4BillsintheBurgh

[4BillsintheBurgh]

6 hours ago, Brandon said:

 

They weren't counting on needing it.  That miss on Basham really screwed up the depth.  They'd likely have a mid round developmental guy or two on the roster from the last few drafts if not for that.  

Considering the value of a pass rusher I don't see that as an excuse. In fact, I'm assuming they weren't thinking long term with Boogie well before they traded him. I think you're right, Boogie precluded them from having room for a mid round guy. I'm talking someone like Jarvis was, a long shot, maybe even an international guy or a udfa. Just to try and make use of the environment to hit it big. As opposed to a jag wr or lb. 

Edited March 29 by 4BillsintheBurgh

[Rigotz]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Correct. So based off that game our #1 need is an outside WR that can win vertically. A close 2nd is a pass rusher that can actually take down Mahomes. We didn't lose to the Chiefs because of our IOL.

The Chiefs never punted and dominated in the trenches. It’s well known their strength is IOL. They didn’t need 1st round draft pick X receiver opposite their other star receiver.

 

The Bills let pressure up the middle often to Jones. Great player, but had his way with Morse.

 

Maybe we have a difference of opinion, but I have a feeling Beane sees it my way.

[Mr. Wonderful]

14 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

What if it turns out that McGovern actually makes a great Center? What if he was sitting there waiting for Morse to retire? Do we know that he isn’t? 

 

Dallas tried him at center.  It went so well they moved him back to guard. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Rigotz said:

The Chiefs never punted and dominated in the trenches. It’s well known their strength is IOL. They didn’t need 1st round draft pick X receiver opposite their other star receiver.

 

The Bills let pressure up the middle often to Jones. Great player, but had his way with Morse.

 

Maybe we have a difference of opinion, but I have a feeling Beane sees it my way.

 

 

It's true that Chris Jones is the best defensive player on the field that day anytime the Bills play the Chiefs.

 

But the mistake Bills fans like yourself make is not realizing that the Chiefs can't get to Josh Allen either.  

 

Neither QB got sacked and each was hit only twice in that divisional loss this season.

 

Combine this last loss and the "13 seconds game" matchup prior to it..........and each QB got sacked twice and Mahomes got hit 6 times and Allen only 4.

 

[machine gun kelly]

You don’t take a Center in the 1st round.  What does not some understand we are woefully deficient at WR.  We need someone on a 5 year contract at a rookie rate who will eventually be Diggs’ replacement.

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

What does not some understand we are woefully deficient at WR.

vast overstatement.   Yes they should get a rookie in but woefully deficient at WR is silly

[nosejob]

13 hours ago, Whites Bay said:

I don't follow this sh!t anywhere NEAR the way you guys do, so forgive the dumb question.

 

If there's no trading up or down, you're saying Latu in the first, Legette in the second.  Bills don't have a third, much to Beane's consternation.  So that means Sweat is going in the fourth?  Would he last that long?

I should have added the caveat of BB using next years 1st to create another 2nd and 3rd. We won't sit idly by from 60 to 128.

Edited March 29 by nosejob

[Mr. WEO]

15 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Asking that question means that you are just another one of the lemmings who think that maybe, just maybe, Beane and McDermott actually might know what they're doing. 

 

 

Watching Russ Brandon trade away All Pro LT Jason Peters and replacing him with waiver-wire refugees in 2009 convinced me of the importance of having a solid OL.  I think it was 2 or 3 years before the Bills got around to even drafting an actual LT.

 

 

Prioritizing need over talent sets up a team for failure.  A team like the Bills has to make its high draft picks count because the draft is the best place to find the difference makers they need.   If there's a WR and/or DE as well as a C on the board that the Bills have graded as first round talents, they should take the one they think is likely to become a stud.    If there's a first round C on the board but none of the WRs or DEs left are close to his quality, it's a no-brainer to take the C.

 

 

Maurkise Pouncey went to the Stillers at #18 in 2010.   Nine times Pro Bowler, 2 time All Pro.   He retired after the 2020 season.   The only season he failed to make the Pro Bowl was the season he suffered a season-ending injury in the opening game of the season.   He came back the next season to be selected All Pro a second time.

 

 

The Bills had a pretty solid O line last year.  Still can't get past the Chiefs.  

 

If Peters never left Buffalo, nothing would have changed for the Bills.  They were no worse without him--they had their best record in his 5 years his rookie year, where he appeared in 5 games.

 

LT and C are not game changers.  Bills need one beside Josh Allen.

[BigAl2526]

I think that when the Bills moved Conner McGovern into the center spot, they were signaling that McGovern would be Morse's replacement for the foreseeable future.   I still think WR is slightly more likely than other positions Buffalo could address at #28, but if they didn't go that route, I think they would look to DT, (Jer'Zahn Newton) DE, (Chop Robinson) or Safety (Cooper De Jean) before they pick an interior offensive lineman.  Just my opinion

[mannc]

It's poor positional value and Beane has shown that that is important to the Bills.  I just can't see it.   

[Rigotz]

14 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's true that Chris Jones is the best defensive player on the field that day anytime the Bills play the Chiefs.

 

But the mistake Bills fans like yourself make is not realizing that the Chiefs can't get to Josh Allen either.  

 

Neither QB got sacked and each was hit only twice in that divisional loss this season.

 

Combine this last loss and the "13 seconds game" matchup prior to it..........and each QB got sacked twice and Mahomes got hit 6 times and Allen only 4.

 

 

This incorrect. There's a difference between sacks and pressure.

 

Pressure is the reason Josh Allen didn't hit Khalil Shakir on the final drive and we had to settle for a Field Goal... which was missed.

 

Pat Mahomes faced 2 QB pressures the entire game, according to PFF. Josh faced 8.

 

Ed Oliver has zero defensive pressures on 13 head to head snaps vs Joe Thuney. 

 

[HappyDays]

38 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

Pressure is the reason Josh Allen didn't hit Khalil Shakir on the final drive and we had to settle for a Field Goal... which was missed.

 

That was Chris Jones on Dawkins, not on Morse. Anyways, Chris Jones is a mismatch against any offensive lineman in the final minutes of a game, other than maybe 6 or 7 guys in the entire league. You aren't going to get over the hump by improving at center and expect to just take Chris Jones out of the game. We get over the hump by out scoring KC. Which means when three perfect deep balls hit the intended receiver in the hands, we can't have all three of them hitting the ground.