To draft a WR or not with 1st round pick

[DJB]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I like Legette too, his package of physical traits is tantalizing. The concern on him is he is 27 months older than Coleman so I worry that he is already close to his ceiling. I prefer high upside in my 1st round picks if it can be helped.

 

Mitchell I don't see a physically dominant player on tape. He has the look of a good all around WR2. I'd be fine with him in the 1st round but I fear that he wouldn't ever give us a true #1. It is kind of the poor man's version of Jerry Jeudy coming out where everyone agreed he was a very good well rounded WR but at this stage his lack of one elite trait has limited his ceiling in the NFL.

 

I've ultimately decided my preferences are Coleman, Legette, and Franklin, in that order and with more separation between Coleman and Legette than Legtte and Franklin. After that I would be happy with Thomas (I don't think he will be at 28 in any case) then Mitchell. Then there is a drop off to the next batch which for me is Worthy then McConkey. After that I think you're getting into prospects that I wouldn't consider until the middle of the 2nd round or later.

 

So for me there are 7 WRs that I would be at least happy with at #28, although the last 3 I would feel better if it came after a trade down.

I’m aware of the age with Leggete and the late break out. Hugely concerning but his tape this year is one of the best amongst the WR group. 
 

Mitchell has WR1 upside. The size, speed, agility and ability to get open is superb. He didn’t put up great numbers due to terrible QB play. Yes he takes plays off , can it be coached out of him? We will find out. 
 

Coleman I’m not a fan of and I’ve been vocal about that . I’m not worried anyway as he’s not the type of WR Beane has described what we are looking for . I.e hands, ability to separate and explosive plays. 
 

All of these guys come with warning flags. None are perfect not even Harrison, it’s figuring out which one will translate to the NFL and into our offense 

Edited March 30 by DJB

[nosejob]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

So, he has to play where Kincaid plays most of the time? I don't think I like that.

I wish Odunze would fall far enough to make a play for him. (I presume he is WR3.)

I'd gamble on Thomas' traits, but even he is probably out of reach.

 

I think Legette is the next best play at WR that is likely to be there at #28, but I think Franklin might be their pick.

Read an article comparing Franklin to Diggs. And Worthy might be an option, but neither of them is a big X. 

Gimme Legette, Polk, Burton, Walker, Baker...etc. I'm gonna put my confidence in the FO. Wouldn't be surprised Brady gets Thomas nor surprised at McD getting Latu. Hoping for the latter myself.

Edited March 30 by nosejob

[Dr. Who]

19 minutes ago, nosejob said:

Gimme Legette, Polk, Burton, Walker, Baker...etc. I'm gonna put my confidence in the FO. Wouldn't be surprised Brady gets Thomas nor surprised at McD getting Latu. Hoping for the latter myself.

Latu might fall because of the injury concern, though I share that concern.

 

I mostly have a different list at WR. I like Thomas, Mitchell, Legette, and then I like McConkey, who isn't an X, though he can play outside. I am biased, because an UGA fan, but I think he is going to be better than many imagine. I like Polk and Baker the best from the rest of your selections. I've said a few times here that I am afraid McD is going to rush the podium to select Cooper Dejean. Newton is the only fella that could fall to #28 that I wouldn't blame them for taking, though I strongly favor WR.

[nosejob]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

Latu might fall because of the injury concern, though I share that concern.

 

I mostly have a different list at WR. I like Thomas, Mitchell, Legette, and then I like McConkey, who isn't an X, though he can play outside. I am biased, because an UGA fan, but I think he is going to be better than many imagine. I like Polk and Baker the best from the rest of your selections. I've said a few times here that I am afraid McD is going to rush the podium to select Cooper Dejean. Newton is the only fella that could fall to #28 that I wouldn't blame them for taking, though I strongly favor WR.

CB in the 1st would make me queezy for  sure...uggh...even McD can't be that dumb.

[Dr. Who]

7 minutes ago, nosejob said:

CB in the 1st would make me queezy for  sure...uggh...even McD can't be that dumb.

Well, let's hope so.

[nosejob]

25 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Well, let's hope so.

Hold my beer....Kaiir Elam

 

[CapeBreton]

On 3/28/2024 at 3:52 PM, OldTimer1960 said:

Who says they didn’t like those guys?  They wanted a vet for a young Allen to aid his development.  I don’t think you can conclude that they didn’t like Jefferson, Aiyuk, etc.

 

That was the report at the time, I recall Beane and company doing some heavy WR scouting in 2020 and word was they didn't like what they saw, thus trading for Diggs, a sure thing. Maybe the plan was to trade the pick all along though, who really knows.

[OldTimer1960]

On 3/30/2024 at 7:56 PM, nosejob said:

CB in the 1st would make me queezy for  sure...uggh...even McD can't be that dumb.

Why would that be dumb?  Premium position, some 1st round prospects, need likely next year.

 

I really don’t understand the fear of CB in the first round- and we hear it every year at draft time.  It is a passing dominated league, somebody needs to cover receivers- hopefully well.

 

I am not arguing that they should take a CB in the first, but if they do it would not be like taking a RB or S or LB in the first- those positions have somewhat lesser value based on how the league pays them.

Edited April 2 by OldTimer1960

[nosejob]

4 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Why would that be dumb?  Premium position, some 1st round prospects, need likely next year.

 

I really don’t understand the fear of CB in the first round- and we hear it every year at draft time.  It is a passing dominated league, somebody needs to cover receivers- hopefully well.

 

I am not arguing that they should take a CB in the first, but if they do it would not be like taking a RB or S or LB in the first- those positions have somewhat lesser value based on how the league pays them.

I shouldn't have said Dumb. If they took Q.Mitchell, I'd understand for sure...if for some reason, he made it to us. That guy's got all pro stank.

I'd prefer Latu. Not expecting Thomas to even get close.

Edited April 2 by nosejob

[billsfan89]

I think the Bills are going to draft WR or DL with the 28th pick. I don't think they feel left guard is an issue worth spending a top pick on (they probably are good with Edwards there although I personally wouldn't be) they will probably draft 1-2 O-line players in the mid-rounds for depth but I don't see them spending pick 28 or 60 in that direction. 

 

I think McBeane is likely to view DL as a place where he can address short term and future needs or WR where they can add more juice to the offense and find a long term replacement for Diggs. I think given the depth at WR and there being at least several 1st round DL players they will have both the need and value they want at one of those positions. 

 

Personally OL/DL/WR anyone of those 3 I am fine with in round 1. I would hate to see Safety and really hate any other position as at least safety is a possible need short/long term. 

[billsfan89]

3 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Why would that be dumb?  Premium position, some 1st round prospects, need likely next year.

 

I really don’t understand the fear of CB in the first round- and we hear it every year at draft time.  It is a passing dominated league, somebody needs to cover receivers- hopefully well.

 

I am not arguing that they should take a CB in the first, but if they do it would not be like taking a RB or S or LB in the first- those positions have somewhat lesser value based on how the league pays them.

 

Given McD's ability to turn late round picks (Benford and Dane Jackson), mid round picks (Taron Johnson) and un-drafted players (Levi Wallace) into players ranging from serviceable starters to elite players at their position I don't think there is really a need to invest a high pick at corner. Corner at pick 28 would be a "luxury" pick at a position that there isn't a need and the coach has shown he can find players elsewhere at. 

 

DL/OL/WR are all positions where the Bills should be able to find "first round value" at and all positions that would service the Bills short and long term needs better. Taking a corner at pick 28 would in my opinion be a drought era move expending a critical asset at a position where they are solid at and when other needs are vastly more pressing.

[nosejob]

I'm thinking DL or WR rd. 1 barring a trade back. I can't see them moving up more than 4 picks if at all. That being said, I think Thomas is out by late teens.

Mitchell and Worthy not long after. Would they go with Legette given the one yr. production and knowing he's be pretty much 30 by 2nd contract time?

Would they value McConkey enough for the 5 yr. deal?

 

As far as DL goes, I like Murphy and Newton, but why go 3 tech there?  If they can go to 24 or 26 and get a game wrecking Latu for a 2 yr. old injury discount, it's Christmas in April. They can find 2 WRs a little later.

 

We need to hit on DE, DT and at least one WR.   Latu , McConkey, Sweat and Walker. Call me happy. BB will have to wheel and deal and I think he will.

Edited April 2 by nosejob

[LABILLBACKER]

On 3/30/2024 at 3:01 PM, Dr. Who said:

Latu might fall because of the injury concern, though I share that concern.

 

I mostly have a different list at WR. I like Thomas, Mitchell, Legette, and then I like McConkey, who isn't an X, though he can play outside. I am biased, because an UGA fan, but I think he is going to be better than many imagine. I like Polk and Baker the best from the rest of your selections. I've said a few times here that I am afraid McD is going to rush the podium to select Cooper Dejean. Newton is the only fella that could fall to #28 that I wouldn't blame them for taking, though I strongly favor WR.

I too like Thomas, Mitchell, Legette & McConkey in that order.  Guys like Coleman, Franklin & Worthy concern me? Maybe a Dez Walker, Pearsall or Burton later?? 

 

[Dr. Who]

22 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I too like Thomas, Mitchell, Legette & McConkey in that order.  Guys like Coleman, Franklin & Worthy concern me? Maybe a Dez Walker, Pearsall or Burton later?? 

 

I've really focused on the day 1 to mid second round fellas. I would not want to invest a second in Walker or Burton, but maybe that is what you'd have to do to get them. Supposedly Burton is a very loose cannon. Polk, Pearsall and Roman Wilson I like in the second, but I want one of the WRs you and I agree on. Javon Baker is another fella I like a bit later. Cornelius Johnson is my late round flier guy.

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Given McD's ability to turn late round picks (Benford and Dane Jackson), mid round picks (Taron Johnson) and un-drafted players (Levi Wallace) into players ranging from serviceable starters to elite players at their position I don't think there is really a need to invest a high pick at corner. Corner at pick 28 would be a "luxury" pick at a position that there isn't a need and the coach has shown he can find players elsewhere at. 

 

DL/OL/WR are all positions where the Bills should be able to find "first round value" at and all positions that would service the Bills short and long term needs better. Taking a corner at pick 28 would in my opinion be a drought era move expending a critical asset at a position where they are solid at and when other needs are vastly more pressing.

Just playing devil’s advocate - couldn’t same be said for WR?  They have “found” starters without spending big $ in FA or high draft picks - and the offense has been very good.  
 

To be clear, both WR and the secondary have been more “it’s fine” than “hey, this is a strength”.  I am for Wr in round 1, provided that there is not a much higher rated player at another premium position including DE, DT, OT and CB.  I actually would be excited to trade down and get either a late 3rd or early 4th.  No WR that has any likelihood of being available is a “can’t pass up” guy.  I could align with Mitchell, Legette or McConkey with some reservations on each.

 

In my view, if Verse, Latu, Murphy or Newton are there, I’d be very tempted.  I could also really understand if they took Chop Robinson.

 

 

24 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I've really focused on the day 1 to mid second round fellas. I would not want to invest a second in Walker or Burton, but maybe that is what you'd have to do to get them. Supposedly Burton is a very loose cannon. Polk, Pearsall and Roman Wilson I like in the second, but I want one of the WRs you and I agree on. Javon Baker is another fella I like a bit later. Cornelius Johnson is my late round flier guy.

That’s the challenge.  If you take WR in the first, you could probably get an equivalent talent 10 picks later, though maybe not an X.  BUT, if you pass on WR at 28 or after small trade down, you could be down to the 4th tier in WR by 60.  

[nosejob]

41 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Just playing devil’s advocate - couldn’t same be said for WR?  They have “found” starters without spending big $ in FA or high draft picks - and the offense has been very good.  
 

To be clear, both WR and the secondary have been more “it’s fine” than “hey, this is a strength”.  I am for Wr in round 1, provided that there is not a much higher rated player at another premium position including DE, DT, OT and CB.  I actually would be excited to trade down and get either a late 3rd or early 4th.  No WR that has any likelihood of being available is a “can’t pass up” guy.  I could align with Mitchell, Legette or McConkey with some reservations on each.

 

In my view, if Verse, Latu, Murphy or Newton are there, I’d be very tempted.  I could also really understand if they took Chop Robinson.

 

 

That’s the challenge.  If you take WR in the first, you could probably get an equivalent talent 10 picks later, though maybe not an X.  BUT, if you pass on WR at 28 or after small trade down, you could be down to the 4th tier in WR by 60.  

That's why next years 1st is in play. It should get us an extra 2nd and 3rd this year, where BB can make hay. With at least a few teams with 2 2nd and 3rd rounders, now's the time to strike. Our 4ths and 5ths combined wouldn't give us a sniff of a 3rd.

 

However, we could end up with ie: 28,41,60 and 88. Then those later picks could give us to wiggle room.

[billsfan89]

43 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Just playing devil’s advocate - couldn’t same be said for WR?  They have “found” starters without spending big $ in FA or high draft picks - and the offense has been very good.  
 

To be clear, both WR and the secondary have been more “it’s fine” than “hey, this is a strength”.  I am for Wr in round 1, provided that there is not a much higher rated player at another premium position including DE, DT, OT and CB.  I actually would be excited to trade down and get either a late 3rd or early 4th.  No WR that has any likelihood of being available is a “can’t pass up” guy.  I could align with Mitchell, Legette or McConkey with some reservations on each.

 

In my view, if Verse, Latu, Murphy or Newton are there, I’d be very tempted.  I could also really understand if they took Chop Robinson.

 

 

I don't think the same could be said for WR as the team had to bring in John Brown and Beasley in 2019 to turn around the WR room and then traded a first for Diggs to get Josh his WR1. Yes the team found Gabe Davis in round 4 and he ended up being a decent receiver and they found Shakir in round 5 and he's shown a lot of promise this past season. But since 2018 when Josh got here, the team's best WR seasons have come from Diggs (2020-2023), John Brown (2019) and Beasley (2019-2020) all of which have come from veteran WR's brought in via fairly big free agent contracts or traded for a 1st round pick. 

 

Generally speaking if the Bills are in a place in the draft where at pick 28 (assuming there isn't a trade down available) they should be able to find a WR, DE, OG, C or DT that has a first round grade as opposed to taking a CB at that selection. That's 5 different positions where a late 1st should yield you positive short term and long term impact more so than a CB would. 

 

 

[OldTimer1960]

35 minutes ago, nosejob said:

That's why next years 1st is in play. It should get us an extra 2nd and 3rd this year, where BB can make hay. With at least a few teams with 2 2nd and 3rd rounders, now's the time to strike. Our 4ths and 5ths combined wouldn't give us a sniff of a 3rd.

 

However, we could end up with ie: 28,41,60 and 88. Then those later picks could give us to wiggle room.

I don’t think that next year’s first is worth more than this year’s 2nd in a trade.  Teams generally discount a pick next year by a round when used in trade for picks this year.

[OldTimer1960]

20 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I don't think the same could be said for WR as the team had to bring in John Brown and Beasley in 2019 to turn around the WR room and then traded a first for Diggs to get Josh his WR1. Yes the team found Gabe Davis in round 4 and he ended up being a decent receiver and they found Shakir in round 5 and he's shown a lot of promise this past season. But since 2018 when Josh got here, the team's best WR seasons have come from Diggs (2020-2023), John Brown (2019) and Beasley (2019-2020) all of which have come from veteran WR's brought in via fairly big free agent contracts or traded for a 1st round pick. 

 

Generally speaking if the Bills are in a place in the draft where at pick 28 (assuming there isn't a trade down available) they should be able to find a WR, DE, OG, C or DT that has a first round grade as opposed to taking a CB at that selection. That's 5 different positions where a late 1st should yield you positive short term and long term impact more so than a CB would. 

 

 

I agree, but I don’t think I’d be excited about a G or C in the first.  I’d sooner the C if it is Powers-Johnson.  I’m still not understanding why you don’t think a good CB could have a big impact near or long term.  Douglas is 30, Benford looks a little promising and Elam is at best unproven.  A real top CB (like they hoped Elam was) that can play tough man and also be good in zone would help a lot, in my opinion.

[Motorin']

7 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Why would that be dumb?  Premium position, some 1st round prospects, need likely next year.

 

I really don’t understand the fear of CB in the first round- and we hear it every year at draft time.  It is a passing dominated league, somebody needs to cover receivers- hopefully well.

 

I am not arguing that they should take a CB in the first, but if they do it would not be like taking a RB or S or LB in the first- those positions have somewhat lesser value based on how the league pays them.

 

I think cb is more of a need than people want to believe. Benford's been injured both of his first two seasons, Douglas is on a one year contract and Elam hasn't developed yet. 

 

I'd really love the Bills to pair Thomas with the current wr room, even if that means a trade up. I also think Mitchell has wr 1 potential, and I really like Legette. 

 

But I don't think a cb is off the table at 28 if a true lock down down #1 cb is there the the DE's and DT's with solid 1st round grades are gone.