To draft a WR or not with 1st round pick

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think he will end up as a big slot at the NFL level personally. Regardless of the gauntlet speed he doesn't separate outside on tape.

But according to the hype tape, he wasn't trying to get a lot of separation. 

 

They claimed Coleman was purposefully going right to the CB.  They called it "stepping on the toes" of the CB, and the tape they showed seemed to back this up.  Coleman was running right to where the CB was and then making the CB do something.  Coleman didn't get much room but according to the statistics they provided seemed like that was all he needed - an incredibly low drop rate.

 

This was a podcast by homers of the school but it did bring up a good possible point.  And they poo-poo'd the LSU guys as being schemed open and anyone could do that. 

[biggerdaddynj]

On 3/27/2024 at 11:35 PM, biggerdaddynj said:

Ironic that in the year of the top WRs we’ll see in the draft for years to come that the Bills who desperately need a top tier young WR won’t get one.  Instead we’ll wind up with a WR it’ll take a couple of years to begin to develop.

 

Heard Greg Cossell breaking down the top 5 or 6 WRs and he essentially said only the top three are impact players the rest have warts that’ll take a couple of years to begin to develop.  

Just sad, really sad how I felt pre-combine and mocks and how I feel now.

Irony is a way of life for us and on countless times, and for me it’s over four decades.  It’s ok to say it out loud so I can move one.  No shame, or self pity, just pure utter sarcastic, hilarity, Bills’ style.  But one of these days!  🏆 

[GunnerBill]

18 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

But according to the hype tape, he wasn't trying to get a lot of separation. 

 

They claimed Coleman was purposefully going right to the CB.  They called it "stepping on the toes" of the CB, and the tape they showed seemed to back this up.  Coleman was running right to where the CB was and then making the CB do something.  Coleman didn't get much room but according to the statistics they provided seemed like that was all he needed - an incredibly low drop rate.

 

This was a podcast by homers of the school but it did bring up a good possible point.  And they poo-poo'd the LSU guys as being schemed open and anyone could do that. 

 

His drop rate wasn't that low.

[CNYfan]

There are WRs available after the top three who will shine in 2024.  No need for self-pity, the FO just has to dig in and take two shots at grabbing one.   I am optimistic.

[Einstein's Dog]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

His drop rate wasn't that low.

Drop rate has a lot of subjectivity to it.  The one they were referencing in the podcast had a low rate attributable to K Coleman - I don't know which one they used.

 

If X Legette/K Coleman/T Franklin are all there I think this might be the year to trade back a little.

[SoonerBillsFan]

Yes

[HappyDays]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

His drop rate wasn't that low.

 

When I watch Coleman full game cut ups I see the ball constantly arriving late. And when it isn't arriving late, it's arriving high or behind. The extra half second it takes for the ball to get to him is leaving room for the DB to impact the catch. In the NFL playing with good QBs that stick the ball on him he won't have that problem. So the real problem is that his style of game isn't conducive to playing with a pure college QB because he isn't creating yards of separation. I still think his skill set projects very well to the pros though.

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

When I watch Coleman full game cut ups I see the ball constantly arriving late. And when it isn't arriving late, it's arriving high or behind. The extra half second it takes for the ball to get to him is leaving room for the DB to impact the catch. In the NFL playing with good QBs that stick the ball on him he won't have that problem. So the real problem is that his style of game isn't conducive to playing with a pure college QB because he isn't creating yards of separation. I still think his skill set projects very well to the pros though.

For as much love as Jordan Travis got esp after the injury, I thought their season offensively was disappointing considering they had 5 skill NFL guys that will probably be drafted(Coleman, Wilson, Benson, Bell, and maybe Travis). As i have said a couple of times they didn’t utilize the field between the hashes a lot and threw a lot of go balls and hoped that he or Coleman would come down with it. 

 

Idk if that was playing to Travis strengths , the WRs or both but it was a really weird year esp cause they went 13-0

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

When I watch Coleman full game cut ups I see the ball constantly arriving late. And when it isn't arriving late, it's arriving high or behind. The extra half second it takes for the ball to get to him is leaving room for the DB to impact the catch. In the NFL playing with good QBs that stick the ball on him he won't have that problem. So the real problem is that his style of game isn't conducive to playing with a pure college QB because he isn't creating yards of separation. I still think his skill set projects very well to the pros though.

 

He wasn't helped by his QB a ton, for sure. I dunno. He just ends up competing for almost every ball. It is why I quite like the big slot idea. Scheme him some free releases against zone and get the ball in his hands. I like him quite a bit after the catch.

[Dr. Who]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He wasn't helped by his QB a ton, for sure. I dunno. He just ends up competing for almost every ball. It is why I quite like the big slot idea. Scheme him some free releases against zone and get the ball in his hands. I like him quite a bit after the catch.

So, he has to play where Kincaid plays most of the time? I don't think I like that.

I wish Odunze would fall far enough to make a play for him. (I presume he is WR3.)

I'd gamble on Thomas' traits, but even he is probably out of reach.

 

I think Legette is the next best play at WR that is likely to be there at #28, but I think Franklin might be their pick.

Read an article comparing Franklin to Diggs. And Worthy might be an option, but neither of them is a big X. 

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

So, he has to play where Kincaid plays most of the time? I don't think I like that.

I wish Odunze would fall far enough to make a play for him. (I presume he is WR3.)

I'd gamble on Thomas' traits, but even he is probably out of reach.

 

I think Legette is the next best play at WR that is likely to be there at #28, but I think Franklin might be their pick.

Read an article comparing Franklin to Diggs. And Worthy might be an option, but neither of them is a big X. 

 

I don't think he has to. Let me be clear on that. But I like that some as a fit for his skillset. 

[HappyDays]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He wasn't helped by his QB a ton, for sure. I dunno. He just ends up competing for almost every ball. It is why I quite like the big slot idea. Scheme him some free releases against zone and get the ball in his hands. I like him quite a bit after the catch.

 

I think his QB invited the competition a lot of times. I think he is better at separating at the top of his route than you give him credit for... but the ball has to be on him as soon as he separates or else it will turn into a contested catch every time. It is a different kind of separation than what most people talk about though. It isn't Stefon Diggs in his prime juking CBs out of their cleats and catching the ball a full 4 yards away from the nearest body. He instead uses his size and strength to box out the CB and create a window for the ball at the last second, but those windows close fast when your QB is a pure "see it, then see it one more time, then throw it" type.

 

I agree he could be a great big slot in the NFL but I don't think that's his only role. Guys with his size and strength can be planted outside full time if needed. He has the frame and the look of a true #1 X. But with his run after catch skills he definitely has the inside/out versatility that the Bills love. And he's probably not even fully developed yet - he'll just be turning 21 this May. So when you talk about the physical traits AND upside that you look for in a 1st round pick, he fits the profile.

 

The question I keep coming back to in these discussions is, what has been our kryptonite (on offense) in our annual playoff losses? To me the answer is obvious - our WRs get bullied by physical man CBs every year. They simply can't match the physical intensity of DBs that are allowed to get away with murder in the playoffs. With Diggs in particular this has been why every year his production from regular season to the playoffs doesn't translate. So I am looking for a counter to that kryptonite and I believe Coleman would be the answer. He doles out the bullying, not the other way around. Give Josh Allen a physical stud on the field with him for the first time in his career.

[Bag of Milk]

On 3/28/2024 at 5:34 PM, Dr. Who said:

Not everyone likes him, but I would not pass on Mitchell at #28. Don't know if you have an opinion on Greg Cosell, but I think he is an excellent analyst. You should look up his take on Mitchell.

I'm a big fan of Cosell. For that matter I try to pay attention to those who watch the tape and not the middle man list makers.

 

Like everyone else he is not always correct. His man crush at WR last year was Jonathan Mingo 

Again, I'll reiterate that I am a huge fan of Cosell 

[Mat68]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think his QB invited the competition a lot of times. I think he is better at separating at the top of his route than you give him credit for... but the ball has to be on him as soon as he separates or else it will turn into a contested catch every time. It is a different kind of separation than what most people talk about though. It isn't Stefon Diggs in his prime juking CBs out of their cleats and catching the ball a full 4 yards away from the nearest body. He instead uses his size and strength to box out the CB and create a window for the ball at the last second, but those windows close fast when your QB is a pure "see it, then see it one more time, then throw it" type.

 

I agree he could be a great big slot in the NFL but I don't think that's his only role. Guys with his size and strength can be planted outside full time if needed. He has the frame and the look of a true #1 X. But with his run after catch skills he definitely has the inside/out versatility that the Bills love. And he's probably not even fully developed yet - he'll just be turning 21 this May. So when you talk about the physical traits AND upside that you look for in a 1st round pick, he fits the profile.

 

The question I keep coming back to in these discussions is, what has been our kryptonite (on offense) in our annual playoff losses? To me the answer is obvious - our WRs get bullied by physical man CBs every year. They simply can't match the physical intensity of DBs that are allowed to get away with murder in the playoffs. With Diggs in particular this has been why every year his production from regular season to the playoffs doesn't translate. So I am looking for a counter to that kryptonite and I believe Coleman would be the answer. He doles out the bullying, not the other way around. Give Josh Allen a physical stud on the field with him for the first time in his career.

Kryptonite has been getting bodied by man coverage.  Outside of Diggs who can get open?  Down the stretch Shakir and Kincaid stepped up and showed they could. Coleman is not larger than Davis.  I think Davis is a little more explosive. Imo size is a cherry on top of everything else they do.  Can they seperate, can they stretch a defense vertically.  If size is the answer to either lets look for something better. 

[Bag of Milk]

On 3/28/2024 at 3:50 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I think his 2023 tape is clearly the 4th best tape of any receiver in this class. I'd take him and not look back. I get the risks with age and late breakout and one year production. But I saw someone say it the other day and I agree.... if he had two years of his 2023 production he would be slam dunk WR4 in this class for everyone..

 

From watching college football incessently and watching every video I can find on any too WR, my mind is a bit jumbled right now 

Between all the hot takes, and analytical models one can get brain freeze But I do agree with you  💯 percent that Legettes tape puts him in the top 4 without a doubt . He looks phenomenal! 

 

Edited March 30 by Bag of Milk

[DJB]

For those advocating for Coleman due to his size, then why aren’t you advocating for Leggette and Mitchell who are just as big but come with elite speed and terrific separation with cleaner hands ?

[Dr. Who]

8 minutes ago, Bag of Milk said:

I'm a big fan of Cosell. For that matter I try to pay attention to those who watch the tape and not the middle man list makers.

 

Like everyone else he is not always correct. His man crush at WR last year was Jonathan Mingo 

Again, I'll reiterate that I am a huge fan of Cosell 

I presume ahead of time that most folks recognize that everyone is making a guess, educated or not. And so much depends on the specific situation that offers or complicates the opportunity presented to a player. All that said, in any field, one ascertains which voices hold a degree of authority for you. That Cosell was off on Mingo doesn't really answer to whether Mitchell will turn out well or not. In a similar, analogous way, the Bills making a trade up for Watkins years ago bears zero import for whether any other putative trade up for WR would work out well or not.

 

Anyway, I am not tied to Mitchell. It's a shame we are not really in a position to move up for one of the top 3. All you can do is take your shot and hope for the best.

8 minutes ago, DJB said:

For those advocating for Coleman due to his size, then why aren’t you advocating for Leggette and Mitchell who are just as big but come with elite speed and terrific separation with cleaner hands ?

This is the question that occurs to me as well, but I was distracted and too lazy to ask it. I have those two ahead of Coleman for the reason you stipulate.

[HappyDays]

14 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Kryptonite has been getting bodied by man coverage.  Outside of Diggs who can get open?  Down the stretch Shakir and Kincaid stepped up and showed they could.

 

Yeah because what we've learned is that great route running isn't enough to get open outside in the playoffs. DBs are allowed to put their hands all over you and the officials are keeping their flags tucked away. So at this point we need physical traits - size/strength or speed. Someone that can either bully through the physical coverage or run away from it.

[Bag of Milk]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I presume ahead of time that most folks recognize that everyone is making a guess, educated or not. And so much depends on the specific situation that offers or complicates the opportunity presented to a player. All that said, in any field, one ascertains which voices hold a degree of authority for you. That Cosell was off on Mingo doesn't really answer to whether Mitchell will turn out well or not. In a similar, analogous way, the Bills making a trade up for Watkins years ago bears zero import for whether any other putative trade up for WR would work out well or not.

 

Anyway, I am not tied to Mitchell. It's a shame we are not really in a position to move up for one of the top 3. All you can do is take your shot and hope for the best.

We're at the stage in the process where  rhe nose is getting deafening and every players real or imagined weaknesses  are being exaggerated.

My guess is a few of these so called second tier WR's are going to be huge hits.

It will seem so logical in 6 months with hindsight 

But right now it maddening lol 

It's going to be a blast to watch. Can't wait until draft day!!

[HappyDays]

11 minutes ago, DJB said:

For those advocating for Coleman due to his size, then why aren’t you advocating for Leggette and Mitchell who are just as big but come with elite speed and terrific separation with cleaner hands ?

 

I like Legette too, his package of physical traits is tantalizing. The concern on him is he is 27 months older than Coleman so I worry that he is already close to his ceiling. I prefer high upside in my 1st round picks if it can be helped.

 

Mitchell I don't see a physically dominant player on tape. He has the look of a good all around WR2. I'd be fine with him in the 1st round but I fear that he wouldn't ever give us a true #1. It is kind of the poor man's version of Jerry Jeudy coming out where everyone agreed he was a very good well rounded WR but at this stage his lack of one elite trait has limited his ceiling in the NFL.

 

I've ultimately decided my preferences are Coleman, Legette, and Franklin, in that order and with more separation between Coleman and Legette than Legtte and Franklin. After that I would be happy with Thomas (I don't think he will be at 28 in any case) then Mitchell. Then there is a drop off to the next batch which for me is Worthy then McConkey. After that I think you're getting into prospects that I wouldn't consider until the middle of the 2nd round or later.

 

So for me there are 7 WRs that I would be at least happy with at #28, although the last 3 I would feel better if it came after a trade down.