To draft a WR or not with 1st round pick

[Einstein's Dog]

13 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Its funny, once I get away from the big 3, my hopes and targets have changed several times already this offseason.  Ive been interested in being aggressive and going up and getting Thomas if he got into say the 20's because 6'3" and 4.34 forty's don't come around all the time.  Still am.  But where I have been debating myself on is who do I prefer if the big 3 and Thomas go elsewhere.

 

These are probably my most consistent next 3 I have been the most interested in after the MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, and Thomas are off the board. I would add in 3 more to kind of make a top 10 of Legette, Worthy, and Franklin as guys most often seen to be mixed in here in this tier of guys.  

 

Here is an interesting scenario:  We move back from 28 and recoup our 3rd.  Take Coleman on the move back and get a guy who was built to play in Buffalo with this offense and then comeback and use that extra 3rd we got and double down on a route-running playmaker like Jalen McMillian.  

 

I mean what if we came out of this draft and turned our one pick at 28 into both Coleman and McMillian?  

 

Yes, move back and get one of X Legette/K Coleman/T Franklin.

 

I was with you until the end, the Warriorspike like overreach of a good thing.  I am against the spending the extra pick on another WR.  There are a lot of areas that would benefit from a rising young player - DL, S, and even OL.

 

Drafting two WRs high in the draft would a sure way to thwart one of those two WRs or Shakir out of PT and development.

[Alphadawg7]

32 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is WR5 for me and he would be a tier below Latu as a prospect by my board. I know you don't like him but I'd be closer to having the conversation on Legette. Latu is the half a round higher graded DE from your example if compared to Thomas in my view.

 

Its not that I don't like Legette, he is quite intriguing with his size and speed.  Biggest difference between me and you on him is that I have stronger concerns about some of his weaknesses holding back from being less a dominant WR1 and more of a WR2 in the NFL.  Which is why I am more comfortable getting him in the 2nd than at 28.  If we took Latu in the first and then landed Legette in the 2nd via our pick or even a trade up, I would be pretty stoked about that.  

 

9 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Yes, move back and get one of X Legette/K Coleman/T Franklin.

 

I was with you until the end, the Warriorspike like overreach of a good thing.  I am against the spending the extra pick on another WR.  There are a lot of areas that would benefit from a rising young player - DL, S, and even OL.

 

Drafting two WRs high in the draft would a sure way to thwart one of those two WRs or Shakir out of PT and development.

 

Yeah, I don't disagree with you and I know it would never happen after we signed Samuel to a 3 year deal too.  Just a fun scenario for discussion.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Its not that I don't like Legette, he is quite intriguing with his size and speed.  Biggest difference between me and you on him is that I have stronger concerns about some of his weaknesses holding back from being less a dominant WR1 and more of a WR2 in the NFL.  Which is why I am more comfortable getting him in the 2nd than at 28.  If we took Latu in the first and then landed Legette in the 2nd via our pick or even a trade up, I would be pretty stoked about that.  

 

Yea I think his 2023 tape is clearly the 4th best tape of any receiver in this class. I'd take him and not look back. I get the risks with age and late breakout and one year production. But I saw someone say it the other day and I agree.... if he had two years of his 2023 production he would be slam dunk WR4 in this class for everyone.

[Einstein's Dog]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah, I don't disagree with you and I know it would never happen after we signed Samuel to a 3 year deal too.  Just a fun scenario for discussion.  

 

I thought it was a little weird coming from you because the top reason for the stack scenario is brought about by anti-Diggs sentiment, moving on quickly -even this year from him.  The second most popular stack reason is non-belief in Shakir.  You've never expressed either of those opinions.

 

As to the rankings of the WRs I can only think in tiers because we don't get the interviews.  Knowing the mindset, attitude would make a huge difference.  For instance if the rumors of A Mitchell took place in talks with the Bills FO, I would think he would be out.  On the other hand, the X Legette and K Coleman seem like excellent fits.

[Alphadawg7]

34 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I am very leery about Colman and he might last to striking distance of pick 60 if other teams fear his lack of speed and lateral movement.  Isn’t McMillan 90% slot?

 

IMHO I think speed gets taken out of games too often late in the season and playoffs in Buffalo by bad weather.  So I am not as worried about his speed concerns because he makes up for it in physical play and getting open using strength and IQ.  Larry Fitzgerald had an elite career playing this way despite a 4.64 forty time.  Don't get me wrong, I love to add elite speed whenever we can, but far too often our team has been too soft in the playoff losses, so adding someone with his kind of strength and ball skills intrigues me.  Im not locked in on him by any means, just less concerned about the speed for those reasons.

 

And I think McMillian gets labeled a slot because he played a lot of it for Washington because they had Odunze and Polk.  I would be hesitant to label him a slot only guy in the NFL right now personally.  With his excellent route running, I think he can move around the field inside and out.  

[OldTimer1960]

49 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The two receiver picks that I would hate are:

 

Coleman at #28

 

And

 

Walker at #60

 

I can talk myself into almost any of the other realistic options at those spots.

I’m in agreement on Coleman at 28, would you consider him at 60 if you hadn’t taken one in the first? 
 

Walker was miserable at the Sr Bowl for sure, but he has athletic tools.  Do you think he is fatally flawed?  I know he dropped a bunch at Sr Bowl, he was better, albeit against no defense at the Combine.  He would not be one of my top choices, but is he “developable”?

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

IMHO I think speed gets taken out of games too often late in the season and playoffs in Buffalo by bad weather.  So I am not as worried about his speed concerns because he makes up for it in physical play and getting open using strength and IQ.  Larry Fitzgerald had an elite career playing this way despite a 4.64 forty time.  Don't get me wrong, I love to add elite speed whenever we can, but far too often our team has been too soft in the playoff losses, so adding someone with his kind of strength and ball skills intrigues me.  Im not locked in on him by any means, just less concerned about the speed for those reasons.

 

And I think McMillian gets labeled a slot because he played a lot of it for Washington because they had Odunze and Polk.  I would be hesitant to label him a slot only guy in the NFL right now personally.  With his excellent route running, I think he can move around the field inside and out.  

I guess that you do have to consider that Odinze and Polk were there.  Virtually every play that I watched of his (only 1 game), he was in the slot.  I might not have picked his best game because I came away thinking “what is the buzz about him?”

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I thought it was a little weird coming from you because the top reason for the stack scenario is brought about by anti-Diggs sentiment, moving on quickly -even this year from him.  The second most popular stack reason is non-belief in Shakir.  You've never expressed either of those opinions.

 

As to the rankings of the WRs I can only think in tiers because we don't get the interviews.  Knowing the mindset, attitude would make a huge difference.  For instance if the rumors of A Mitchell took place in talks with the Bills FO, I would think he would be out.  On the other hand, the X Legette and K Coleman seem like excellent fits.

 

Hahaha, yup.  Def don't believe there is any drama with Diggs and the team, and I do have a lot of confidence in Shakir and think not only will he be a good player for us the next 2 seasons he is still under contract, but I think he is the kind of player I can see Beane resigning as well.  

 

I will say though, Diggs future here I think is going to come down to how he plays here based on his cost moving forward.  He shows he still is playing at a high level, his odds of being back in 2025 increase and maybe even a contract restructure to help keep him here to retire a Bill.  But if his play starts to be clear is falling off this season, then I think moving on from him after this season starts to get considered because the cap impact of doing so becomes more manageable next year.  

 

And what is the A Mitchell rumor, I think I missed that.  

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I guess that you do have to consider that Odinze and Polk were there.  Virtually every play that I watched of his (only 1 game), he was in the slot.  I might not have picked his best game because I came away thinking “what is the buzz about him?”

 

If you look back, a lot of people were down on Justin Jefferson labeling him a slot guy mostly too because he played so much of it at LSU.  Now I am not saying he is in the same tier as JJ as a prospect, just stating how one is used in college can sometimes create an inaccurate assumption about the player in the NFL. 

[Einstein's Dog]

10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Hahaha, yup.  Def don't believe there is any drama with Diggs and the team, and I do have a lot of confidence in Shakir and think not only will he be a good player for us the next 2 seasons he is still under contract, but I think he is the kind of player I can see Beane resigning as well.  

 

I will say though, Diggs future here I think is going to come down to how he plays here based on his cost moving forward.  He shows he still is playing at a high level, his odds of being back in 2025 increase and maybe even a contract restructure to help keep him here to retire a Bill.  But if his play starts to be clear is falling off this season, then I think moving on from him after this season starts to get considered because the cap impact of doing so becomes more manageable next year.  

 

And what is the A Mitchell rumor, I think I missed that.  

 

 

There was talk of A Mitchell taking plays off.  An implication that Mitchell was a bit of a prima donna.  Questions as to why someone with his height/weight/speed combo didn't do more.

 

If A Mitchell were drafted there is the impression he would contact Josh pretty quickly and ask about the next charity golf event and if Hailee has any girl friends, whereas the first questions out of K Coleman are when can they get together and have the first 1,000 passes thrown his way.

 

 

[Nitro]

If the WR that fits the team and draft position value, trade out.   Garner more picks and drop back into the second round.  There are plenty of WR talent that are going to be available in the second round.  

[GASabresIUFan]

Just now, Einstein's Dog said:

There was talk of A Mitchell taking plays off.  An implication that Mitchell was a bit of a prima donna.  Questions as to why someone with his height/weight/speed combo didn't do more.

I call BS.  I watched this kid for two years at UGA battle through injuries and always worked his way back to the field and contributed.  He was finally healthy his one year at Texas and was excellent all season.  He transferred to Texas to be close to his daughter.  I have zero questions about this young man's character.  

[Logic]

Unless Brian Thomas gets within shouting distance and Beane trades up for him, I actually expect the Bills to take a different position in round 1, followed by a trade-up in round 2 for a WR.

I'll say this: Round 2 success rates for WRs are just about as good as Round 1 success rates for WRs the past few years. You can ABSOLUTELY still get a playmaker in round 2.


2023 2nd round WRs who hit:
Jayden Reed
Rashee Rice
(and Tank Dell was taken in the 3rd, and Puka Nacua in the 5th)

2022 2nd round WRs who hit:
None. Okay. Bad example.

2021 2nd round WRs who hit:
None again. Uh-oh. What's happening?

2020 2nd round WRs who hit:
Tee Higgins
No one else. Shoot. This is not going well.


Ok, so...after doing that exercise, I've changed my mind. I genuinely expected to prove the "2nd round receivers are good, too" point, and the data the past four years said otherwise.

WR or bust in round 1! 😅

Edited March 28 by Logic

[GunnerBill]

35 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

IMHO I think speed gets taken out of games too often late in the season and playoffs in Buffalo by bad weather.  So I am not as worried about his speed concerns because he makes up for it in physical play and getting open using strength and IQ.  Larry Fitzgerald had an elite career playing this way despite a 4.64 forty time.  Don't get me wrong, I love to add elite speed whenever we can, but far too often our team has been too soft in the playoff losses, so adding someone with his kind of strength and ball skills intrigues me.  Im not locked in on him by any means, just less concerned about the speed for those reasons.

 

And I think McMillian gets labeled a slot because he played a lot of it for Washington because they had Odunze and Polk.  I would be hesitant to label him a slot only guy in the NFL right now personally.  With his excellent route running, I think he can move around the field inside and out.  

 

It isn't just the speed with Coleman. He is a bad contested catch guy as well. He is strong and a good YAC guy. But I don't know that is enough to be more than a mid to late 2nd.

[GASabresIUFan]

Looking at the Bills roster, this is looking more and more like a BPA draft.

 

The Bills have 5 WRs on the roster and carried 5 last season

The Bills have 9 DT & Edge players including all the starters and carried 10 last year.

The Bills have 4 safeties on the roster (including Lewis) and carried 4 last season

 

On defense there are openings for 1 depth DL, and 2 depth DBs.  On offense there are openings for 1 3rd string RB, and 1 backup OL.  Shorter's grasp of the 5th WR role is tenuous.

 

The top needs are still (IMHO) in order WR, S, IOL, DL, CB and RB 

 

Edited March 28 by GASabresIUFan

[Einstein's Dog]

8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I call BS.  I watched this kid for two years at UGA battle through injuries and always worked his way back to the field and contributed.  He was finally healthy his one year at Texas and was excellent all season.  He transferred to Texas to be close to his daughter.  I have zero questions about this young man's character.  

It could be BS.  That was part of my point, the FO has to make that call.  And it probably is a big part of the decision. 

 

If they did the interview and came away with positives we might see the Bills do a small move up for Mitchell.  The Bills/Beane do get nervous if their man is coming close - and I think they feel pretty justified in it from last year with the look of the Dallas war room after Kincaid was sniped from them.  And they do have the Bills behind us and once again Dallas ahead of us - both dangers.

 

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Unless Brian Thomas gets within shouting distance and Beane trades up for him, I actually expect the Bills to take a different position in round 1, followed by a trade-up in round 2 for a WR.

I'll say this: Round 2 success rates for WRs are just about as good as Round 1 success rates for WRs the past few years. You can ABSOLUTELY still get a playmaker in round 2.


2023 2nd round WRs who hit:
Jayden Reed
Rashee Rice
(and Tank Dell was taken in the 3rd, and Puka Nacua in the 5th)

2022 2nd round WRs who hit:
None. Okay. Bad example.

2021 2nd round WRs who hit:
None again. Uh-oh. What's happening?

2020 2nd round WRs who hit:
Tee Higgins
No one else. Shoot. This is not going well.


Ok, so...after doing that exercise, I've changed my mind. I genuinely expected to prove the "2nd round receivers are good, too" point, and the data the past four years said otherwise.

WR or bust in round 1! 😅

Not everyone likes him, but I would not pass on Mitchell at #28. Don't know if you have an opinion on Greg Cosell, but I think he is an excellent analyst. You should look up his take on Mitchell.

[Logic]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Not everyone likes him, but I would not pass on Mitchell at #28. Don't know if you have an opinion on Greg Cosell, but I think he is an excellent analyst. You should look up his take on Mitchell.

I actually will look that up, because I DO like Greg Cosell, and I currently DON'T like AD Mitchell.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Unless Brian Thomas gets within shouting distance and Beane trades up for him, I actually expect the Bills to take a different position in round 1, followed by a trade-up in round 2 for a WR.

I'll say this: Round 2 success rates for WRs are just about as good as Round 1 success rates for WRs the past few years. You can ABSOLUTELY still get a playmaker in round 2.


2023 2nd round WRs who hit:
Jayden Reed
Rashee Rice
(and Tank Dell was taken in the 3rd, and Puka Nacua in the 5th)

2022 2nd round WRs who hit:
None. Okay. Bad example.

2021 2nd round WRs who hit:
None again. Uh-oh. What's happening?

2020 2nd round WRs who hit:
Tee Higgins
No one else. Shoot. This is not going well.


Ok, so...after doing that exercise, I've changed my mind. I genuinely expected to prove the "2nd round receivers are good, too" point, and the data the past four years said otherwise.

WR or bust in round 1! 😅

Hahaha I still enjoyed the ride of reading your “logic” 😂

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, Logic said:

I actually will look that up, because I DO like Greg Cosell, and I currently DON'T like AD Mitchell.

https://www.the33rdteam.com/adonai-mitchell-nfl-draft-2024-combine-results-scouting-report-for-texas-wr/

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/greg-cosell-in-depth-film-breakdown-of-wr-draft-targets

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Unless Brian Thomas gets within shouting distance and Beane trades up for him, I actually expect the Bills to take a different position in round 1, followed by a trade-up in round 2 for a WR.

I'll say this: Round 2 success rates for WRs are just about as good as Round 1 success rates for WRs the past few years. You can ABSOLUTELY still get a playmaker in round 2.


2023 2nd round WRs who hit:
Jayden Reed
Rashee Rice
(and Tank Dell was taken in the 3rd, and Puka Nacua in the 5th)

2022 2nd round WRs who hit: 
None. Okay. Bad example.

2021 2nd round WRs who hit:
None again. Uh-oh. What's happening?

2020 2nd round WRs who hit:
Tee Higgins
No one else. Shoot. This is not going well.


Ok, so...after doing that exercise, I've changed my mind. I genuinely expected to prove the "2nd round receivers are good, too" point, and the data the past four years said otherwise.

WR or bust in round 1! 😅

2022:

2nd rd picks GEORGE PICKENS (1941 yards in 2 seasons including 1140 last year); plus Christian Watson (an emerging star if he can stay healthy) and Alec Pierce,  plus Romeo Dobbs in the 4th and Shakir in the 5th

 

2021: the 2nd rd was not great but

Elijah Moore is a solid player from the 2nd, Josh Palmer is good from the 3rd, Nico Collins from the 3rd is an emerging star and Amon St Brown from the 4th is a huge star already.

 

2020:

Did you forget Michael Pittman in the 2nd rd? Davis and Mooney were good later round picks.

 

2019:

Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown & DK Metcalf were all 2nd rd picks. Diontae Johnson and Terry McLaurin went in the 3rd

Edited March 28 by GASabresIUFan