To draft a WR or not with 1st round pick

[Turbo44]

5 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

still waiting to see what Blackmon does.  Would love for him to accept the contract offer we supposedly presented him with.

Take Safety off the board for us.  As it is, there's likely to be good value at Safety in Round 4 anyway.  No need to take one high 

per my draft blog above, I just tried a mock draft to see if it was pracitcal:

 

#28 came around and all tier 2 wr's were available.  SF offered e #31 and their 2025 2nd for #28 I accepted.

with #31 I took mitchell

I have an unexplainable love for McConkey and when he was still available at #44, I traded #60 and our 2025 2nd for #44 and grabbed McConkey.  so, net, i have the same amount of picks left and grabbed Adalai Mitchell and McConkey.  Great WR room now and gives us option flexibility with Diggs in 2025 and beyond

[Alphadawg7]

20 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Latu is my answer too. If he is there then unless one of the top 3 receivers is also there I'd take him and start trying to trade up in round 2 to make sure I get a receiver. He is just a tier of talent above all the receivers except the top 3. You can't pass on that at a premium position.

 

But this Bills regime has been reluctant to take risks on injury guys. So I doubt they'd do it. 

 

What if Thomas is there?  Legit WR1 prospect that is 6'3" with a 4.34 forty time doesn't come around that often.  I am not sure they can pass that up if he makes it to 28, although I don't expect him to.  I know he has his own question marks and areas to improve, but that is a pretty sexy package for Allen if he is on the board at 28.  

[CapeBreton]

This regime is good at identifying WR talent later in the draft (Davis, Hodgins, Shakir have all done well) but I question their ability to evaluate first round talent. In the 2020 draft, they didn't like the guys they scouted and proceeded to trade the 1st for Diggs. Meanwhile, they passed on the likes of Justin Jefferson, Aiyuk, Higgins, and Pittman. I'm happy with Diggs but the fact they didn't like these guys is a major red flag. 

[Turbo44]

8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

What if Thomas is there?  Legit WR1 prospect that is 6'3" with a 4.34 forty time doesn't come around that often.  I am not sure they can pass that up if he makes it to 28, although I don't expect him to.  I know he has his own question marks and areas to improve, but that is a pretty sexy package for Allen if he is on the board at 28.  

If Thomas isn't drafted in the first 18, i think Beene is trying desperately to trade up for him.  I think there's a 30% chance he falls to 19/20.  No way in the world he falls to 28 because someone (KC, etc) would jump Buffalo to grab him before Buffalo.  For all we know, Beene may have another receiver rated higher??  They've spent a lot of time with Franklin and have been kinked to Coleman and Mitchell.  The only top guy they haven't been linked to - no meetings, etc is McConkey - Smokescreen or not a fit??  

[longtimebillsfan]

21 hours ago, Yantha said:

Personally I think we need to try to trade Stefon Diggs BEFORE the draft day for a pick package that nets a second rounder in some way.

 

I'm happy to move on from Diggs and go all in with this WR class.

Won't/can't happen this year due to huge cap hit.

[starrymessenger]

37 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

per my draft blog above, I just tried a mock draft to see if it was pracitcal:

 

#28 came around and all tier 2 wr's were available.  SF offered e #31 and their 2025 2nd for #28 I accepted.

with #31 I took mitchell

I have an unexplainable love for McConkey and when he was still available at #44, I traded #60 and our 2025 2nd for #44 and grabbed McConkey.  so, net, i have the same amount of picks left and grabbed Adalai Mitchell and McConkey.  Great WR room now and gives us option flexibility with Diggs in 2025 and beyond

I'm intrigued by the possibility of taking WRs with our first 2 picks (however we get there) depending who still is on the board in the second and how much it might cost to move up. Don't see it as a real possibility though given other needs. 

[Mat68]

I think if Oduzne or Thomas make it to 19 to 20 range Beane will try to move up.  After the top 4 you would have to look at what Beane drafts in round 1.  Young guys with elite traits. That would include both Texas wrs Worthy and Mitchell.  Troy Franklin from Oregon and Keon Coleman.  They have been talking about explosiveness, I think that disqualifies Coleman.  His 40 limits him to day 2.  That leaves realistically Worthy, Mitchell or Franklin.  I would be happy with any of them.  If your fans of guys not mentioned than Buffalo may go a different position round 1 and get aggressive day 2 or trade back.

[starrymessenger]

31 minutes ago, CapeBreton said:

This regime is good at identifying WR talent later in the draft (Davis, Hodgins, Shakir have all done well) but I question their ability to evaluate first round talent. In the 2020 draft, they didn't like the guys they scouted and proceeded to trade the 1st for Diggs. Meanwhile, they passed on the likes of Justin Jefferson, Aiyuk, Higgins, and Pittman. I'm happy with Diggs but the fact they didn't like these guys is a major red flag. 

They needed a top NFL wideout who could hit the ground running. And their strategy did pay dividends. Word has it, and I believe it, that they were all in on Addison last year and would have selected him with their first pick. If so, their evaluation of a first round talent was spot on. 

[Mat68]

2 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

I'm intrigued by the possibility of taking WRs with our first 2 picks (however we get there) depending who still is on the board in the second and how much it might cost to move up. Don't see it as a real possibility though given other needs. 

I take the opposite body type the top of day 3.  If you go smaller early I would look at Baker, Thrash, Rice if they still available.  You went bigger body early I would look for Malik Washington, Crowing, Tahj Washington.  I think early than later is more likley.  Or back to back if they waited on Wr. 

Just now, starrymessenger said:

They needed a top NFL wideout who could hit the ground running. And their strategy did pay dividends. Word has it, and I believe it, that they were all in on Addison last year and would have selected him with their first pick. If so, their evaluation of a first round talent was spot on. 

The guys drafted before Jefferson that busted is also a consideration.  I would expect Beane was shocked Jefferson was still there.  Either way Beane took a sure thing that has been top 5 across the board since arriving.  

[Hermes]

44 minutes ago, CapeBreton said:

This regime is good at identifying WR talent later in the draft (Davis, Hodgins, Shakir have all done well) but I question their ability to evaluate first round talent. In the 2020 draft, they didn't like the guys they scouted and proceeded to trade the 1st for Diggs. Meanwhile, they passed on the likes of Justin Jefferson, Aiyuk, Higgins, and Pittman. I'm happy with Diggs but the fact they didn't like these guys is a major red flag. 

In all fairness the past few years the only one of those who's been on Diggs level has been Jefferson. So really it's a pretty even swap. Especially when you consider that JJ was a rookie taken late in the first. No one could've anticipated he'd surpass Diggs at this point. He'd be the No 1 pick (or close to it in a redraft).

 

So what you're saying is they correctly diagnosed (3 of 4) that Diggs would be better than. Maybe they didn't think Jefferson would be there and they're kicking themselves for it since they retroactively compared him to a Brian Thomas type prospect who'd be gone by their pick.

 

Nobody knows. Hopefully we find out soon, they're freaking awesome at it

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

What if Thomas is there?  Legit WR1 prospect that is 6'3" with a 4.34 forty time doesn't come around that often.  I am not sure they can pass that up if he makes it to 28, although I don't expect him to.  I know he has his own question marks and areas to improve, but that is a pretty sexy package for Allen if he is on the board at 28.  

 

He is WR5 for me and he would be a tier below Latu as a prospect by my board. I know you don't like him but I'd be closer to having the conversation on Legette. Latu is the half a round higher graded DE from your example if compared to Thomas in my view.

[Mat68]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is WR5 for me and he would be a tier below Latu as a prospect by my board. I know you don't like him but I'd be closer to having the conversation on Legette. Latu is the half a round higher graded DE from your example if compared to Thomas in my view.

Latu may not be on Buffalos board due to his medicals. Thomas Jr athletic profile and age matches Beanes first rd picks.  Leggette would be a complete outlier from their first rd picks. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Latu may not be on Buffalos board due to his medicals. Thomas Jr athletic profile and age matches Beanes first rd picks.  Leggette would be a complete outlier from their first rd picks. 

 

I agree Latu is unlikely on their board.

 

I am not sure I agree on Legette being a complete outlier. He is a physical freak which aligns with Josh, Tremaine, Ed and Groot. They like their freaks. I take the point that they like young freaks and their older picks - Tre and Dalton have been more polished guys. So it is an alteration to the trend but it isn't a complete outlier IMO.

 

To be clear - I don't expect the Bills to pick Legette at #28 and I expect Thomas to be higher on their board but this thread isn't what do you think the Bills will do. It is what would YOU do. Who is your guy that would get you off receiver at #28. To me it is Latu. I'd take Latu over everyone except the top 3 receivers. It would be touch and go with my WR4 - Legette - but I'd still do it. It is enough clear blue water with my WR5 that I wouldn't even think, I'd do it.

 

Ask the question that way - Latu or whoever your WR4 is on your board? And believe me it is NOT consensus that Thomas is WR4. I touched base with some very plugged in guys pre-combine and it was a real mix. Thomas was most popular (I even found a guy who had him above Odunze), but there were people who had Mitchell at WR4, Worthy at WR4 and Coleman at WR4. 

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, CapeBreton said:

This regime is good at identifying WR talent later in the draft (Davis, Hodgins, Shakir have all done well) but I question their ability to evaluate first round talent. In the 2020 draft, they didn't like the guys they scouted and proceeded to trade the 1st for Diggs. Meanwhile, they passed on the likes of Justin Jefferson, Aiyuk, Higgins, and Pittman. I'm happy with Diggs but the fact they didn't like these guys is a major red flag. 

Who says they didn’t like those guys?  They wanted a vet for a young Allen to aid his development.  I don’t think you can conclude that they didn’t like Jefferson, Aiyuk, etc.

[Alphadawg7]

45 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

If Thomas isn't drafted in the first 18, i think Beene is trying desperately to trade up for him.  I think there's a 30% chance he falls to 19/20.  No way in the world he falls to 28 because someone (KC, etc) would jump Buffalo to grab him before Buffalo.  For all we know, Beene may have another receiver rated higher??  They've spent a lot of time with Franklin and have been kinked to Coleman and Mitchell.  The only top guy they haven't been linked to - no meetings, etc is McConkey - Smokescreen or not a fit??  

 

Its funny, once I get away from the big 3, my hopes and targets have changed several times already this offseason.  Ive been interested in being aggressive and going up and getting Thomas if he got into say the 20's because 6'3" and 4.34 forty's don't come around all the time.  Still am.  But where I have been debating myself on is who do I prefer if the big 3 and Thomas go elsewhere.

 

Assuming MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, and Thomas are all off the board.  

• McConkey - He was the first guy I was hot on at 28.  I think he has the highest floor of any WR in this range and still maintains a high ceiling too.  When it comes to WR's, one of my favorite traits is excellent route runners, so its what I was initially drawn towards with him.  
• Mitchell - Let me preface, not sure he will be there at 28, but could be.  I mean its hard not to love all his attributes, but still a bit concerning he hasn't seemingly put all that together on the field yet.  Either way, elite athleticism is intriguing.  
• Coleman - I do love me a big phsyical WR that is open when not open.  And in a city like Buffalo where bad weather back half the season and playoffs will negate speed, guys like Coleman can dominate.  While he doesn't have the top end speeds of like Thomas, Mitchell, etc, he is still fast enough to be plenty dangerous while also being incredibly strong, big, and physical.  He is the kind of guy who is open when not open or that will lay a massive block in the redzone to free up Cook for an easy TD.  And again, in Buffalo, that may just be more valuable than elite speed.  

These are probably my most consistent next 3 I have been the most interested in after the MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, and Thomas are off the board. I would add in 3 more to kind of make a top 10 of Legette, Worthy, and Franklin as guys most often seen to be mixed in here in this tier of guys.  

 

What is crazy is how many other strong WR prospects there are beyond these 10 guys including guys like Pearsall (who I think is being slept on too much), McMillian (some call Diggs 2.0), Polk, Wilson, Burton, and more.  This has to be the deepest draft at WR I can ever recall.  Some very good WR's are going to be coming out this draft not only in the 2nd round, but on day 3.  

 

Here is an interesting scenario:  We move back from 28 and recoup our 3rd.  Take Coleman on the move back and get a guy who was built to play in Buffalo with this offense and then comeback and use that extra 3rd we got and double down on a route-running playmaker like Jalen McMillian.  

 

I mean what if we came out of this draft and turned our one pick at 28 into both Coleman and McMillian?  

 

 

[Turbo44]

56 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

I'm intrigued by the possibility of taking WRs with our first 2 picks (however we get there) depending who still is on the board in the second and how much it might cost to move up. Don't see it as a real possibility though given other needs. 

Beene has done a pretty good job filling other needs.  The biggest needs, other than WR are Edge and safety and maybe a 3rd string RB.  If he stands pat, he could draft wr's with the first 2 picks.  My favorite idea is:

#28 McConkey

#60 Walker (maybe a small trade up for Legette or Franklin if they fall)

[OldTimer1960]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Its funny, once I get away from the big 3, my hopes and targets have changed several times already this offseason.  Ive been interested in being aggressive and going up and getting Thomas if he got into say the 20's because 6'3" and 4.34 forty's don't come around all the time.  Still am.  But where I have been debating myself on is who do I prefer if the big 3 and Thomas go elsewhere.

 

Assuming MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, and Thomas are all off the board.  

• McConkey - He was the first guy I was hot on at 28.  I think he has the highest floor of any WR in this range and still maintains a high ceiling too.  When it comes to WR's, one of my favorite traits is excellent route runners, so its what I was initially drawn towards with him.  
• Mitchell - Let me preface, not sure he will be there at 28, but could be.  I mean its hard not to love all his attributes, but still a bit concerning he hasn't seemingly put all that together on the field yet.  Either way, elite athleticism is intriguing.  
• Coleman - I do love me a big phsyical WR that is open when not open.  And in a city like Buffalo where bad weather back half the season and playoffs will negate speed, guys like Coleman can dominate.  While he doesn't have the top end speeds of like Thomas, Mitchell, etc, he is still fast enough to be plenty dangerous while also being incredibly strong, big, and physical.  He is the kind of guy who is open when not open or that will lay a massive block in the redzone to free up Cook for an easy TD.  And again, in Buffalo, that may just be more valuable than elite speed.  

These are probably my most consistent next 3 I have been the most interested in after the MHJ, Nabers, Odunze, and Thomas are off the board. I would add in 3 more to kind of make a top 10 of Legette, Worthy, and Franklin as guys most often seen to be mixed in here in this tier of guys.  

 

What is crazy is how many other strong WR prospects there are beyond these 10 guys including guys like Pearsall (who I think is being slept on too much), McMillian (some call Diggs 2.0), Polk, Wilson, Burton, and more.  This has to be the deepest draft at WR I can ever recall.  Some very good WR's are going to be coming out this draft not only in the 2nd round, but on day 3.  

 

Here is an interesting scenario:  We move back from 28 and recoup our 3rd.  Take Coleman on the move back and get a guy who was built to play in Buffalo with this offense and then comeback and use that extra 3rd we got and double down on a route-running playmaker like Jalen McMillian.  

 

I mean what if we came out of this draft and turned our one pick at 28 into both Coleman and McMillian?  

 

 

I am very leery about Colman and he might last to striking distance of pick 60 if other teams fear his lack of speed and lateral movement.  Isn’t McMillan 90% slot?

1 minute ago, Turbo44 said:

Beene has done a pretty good job filling other needs.  The biggest needs, other than WR are Edge and safety and maybe a 3rd string RB.  If he stands pat, he could draft wr's with the first 2 picks.  My favorite idea is:

#28 McConkey

#60 Walker (maybe a small trade up for Legette or Franklin if they fall)

Walker is possible in round 2.  He really had a bad time at the Senior Bowl and that’s hard to forget, but he has size, great speed and hops.  Can he catch, especially contested catches?

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I am very leery about Colman and he might last to striking distance of pick 60 if other teams fear his lack of speed and lateral movement.  Isn’t McMillan 90% slot?

Walker is possible in round 2.  He really had a bad time at the Senior Bowl and that’s hard to forget, but he has size, great speed and hops.  Can he catch, especially contested catches?

 

The two receiver picks that I would hate are:

 

Coleman at #28

 

And

 

Walker at #60

 

I can talk myself into almost any of the other realistic options at those spots.

[Augie]

1 hour ago, longtimebillsfan said:

Won't/can't happen this year due to huge cap hit.

 

DING! DING! DING!!!

 

You win a prize as the One Millionth poster to point that out!  😂 

 

I just don’t see it being at all realistic, but I’ve been wrong before. But I just don’t see it. 

 

 

[Turbo44]

I just did a mock and took

 

#28:  McConkey at 28 (there was a run on WRs and it was between him and Worthy)

#60:  Traded #60 and (2) 5ths to move up to #52 and took Legette

 

Pretty realistic if Beene's wants to stack WR's. I would love this as I have a serious man crush on McConkey but would to pair him with a more natural X receiver.