To draft a WR or not with 1st round pick

[Solomon Grundy]

23 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I mean we did put up 36 points to the Chiefs in Arrowhead and still lost. We just need to make plays when they matter in games whether offense defense and STs. If that means adding a WR great, if it means getting a game wrecking D lineman great. Just get a difference maker imo that can disrupt them in some way 

That means getting a receiver who can actually CATCH THE FOOTBALL. Had the receivers actually caught the ball in the KC game, we'd probably had a different outcome. 

[gonzo1105]

5 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

That means getting a receiver who can actually CATCH THE FOOTBALL. Had the receivers actually caught the ball in the KC game, we'd probably had a different outcome

 

I didn’t use last year as an example. I used the 36 point game for people who believe they just adding more firepower and scoring is the answer to beating the Chiefs. Sure a WR would have helped us win last year in your opinion, and was that the case after the 36 point game. Probably not you were prob thinking damn we need more defense or our coaching blew it but I doubt anyone after that game was like man we need more firepower. 
 

Each game comes down to making plays when it matters. Last year we missed a kick, had injuries, and offense couldn’t catch. 
 

The year before the defense couldn’t stop anything and the offense couldn’t get out of neutral

 

The year before that we put up 36 points and coaching and defense failed. 
 

Each game is it’s own story and it came down to the Chiefs made more plays than the Bills when it mattered in all 3 phases 

 

[Mat68]

1 hour ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Josh, IMO, still needs a WR who's open when he's not open. A Dhop type receiver. 

Or just get a guy who gets open.  D Hop uses incredible hand size and body control.  He is not fast or imposing.  He is one of many examples on why waiting for Wr is better than over drafting one.    

[Solomon Grundy]

22 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Or just get a guy who gets open.  D Hop uses incredible hand size and body control.  He is not fast or imposing.  He is one of many examples on why waiting for Wr is better than over drafting one.    

Gabe got open. Just dropped too many critical balls

[Nephilim17]

3 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

We can make that comparison when Andy Reid or some other really good offensive HC is in charge. Not McDermott.  And when KC's GM is making our picks, not Beane.

And when we have one of the three best pass-catching tight ends of all time.

[biggerdaddynj]

Ironic that in the year of the top WRs we’ll see in the draft for years to come that the Bills who desperately need a top tier young WR won’t get one.  Instead we’ll wind up with a WR it’ll take a couple of years to begin to develop.

 

Heard Greg Cossell breaking down the top 5 or 6 WRs and he essentially said only the top three are impact players the rest have warts that’ll take a couple of years to begin to develop.  

Just sad, really sad how I felt pre-combine and mocks and how I feel now.

[billsfan89]

WR or offensive line or defensive line take whatever the best player is at either of those positions and I am fine with it. 

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, Yantha said:

Personally I think we need to try to trade Stefon Diggs BEFORE the draft day for a pick package that nets a second rounder in some way.

 

I'm happy to move on from Diggs and go all in with this WR class.

 

 

That's nuts in many ways.

 

But just the financial costs of trading him are enough to rule this out unless he starts making himself absolutely radioactive to force himself out and leaves us no choice. Next year would be the first year it would be reasonable. IMO he's most likely here two years or more.

[GASabresIUFan]

What if the plan is to not to draft a receiver high at all? Sounds crazy right!  

 

However, I believe there is a scenario where Shakir becomes the Davis replacement next season.

 

Shakir's combine stats were nearly identical to Diggs' his draft year.  Their size, speed, jumping ability are nearly identical.  Last season, Shakir's 15.7 yards per catch was 12th in the NFL of wideouts with 30 or more receptions.  For comparison purposes, Mike Evans finished 10th in that stat at 15.9 and Justin Jefferson 11th at 15.8 (Davis was 6th at 16.6).  Shakir also had 17 20+ yard plays in only 45 targets.  To put that number into context, Tyreek Hill lead the NFL with 57 plays of 20+ yards on 171 targets.  That's 1 20 yard or longer play for every 3 targets.  Shakir's 17 20+ yard plays were 1 on every 2.6 targets.  Obvious this is a bit of a small sample size, but it does get one thinking.  Now add in that management spent their biggest FA contract on a slot receiver (Samuel) and this scenario begins to gain some traction.  Now add that management moved a guard to center, so is it really so far fetched to think they might move a receiver from the slot to the boundary, especially with Samuel and Kincaid to patrol the interior? I'll add two other pieces of data in support of this scenario: 1. Beane has never drafted a WR in the 1st 3 rounds of a draft; 2. McD/Beane hate starting rookies.  We can look to Shakir's usage from year 1 to year 2 to illustrate how Bills management feels about playing most rookies.  

 

All that said, I personally believe Beane will break with tradition and draft a WR in the 1st 3 rounds in April, but I do believe that Shakir has a great chance of being the WR2 opening next season.  I believe this because Beane is also going to replace Diggs possibly after the 2024 season and certainly after the 2025 season.  My guess is in 2026 the starting WR1 and WR2 will be Shakir and whomever we draft in April.  As much as I want Thomas or Mitchell in Bills Blue and Red next season, I can see Beane trading back to add the 3rd rd pick traded for Douglas and then utilizing a 2nd rd pick or the new third on the receiver.  Guys like Worthy, Legette, Coleman or even Burton or Devontez Walker could be the guys on the radar.

 

FYI:

Mitchell 6-2, 205 lbs, 39.5 in vertical, 4.34 in the 40. 

Walker 6-1.5, 193 lbs, 40.5 in vertical, 4.36 in the 40. 

 

Not to be cynical, but the difference between a 1st rd pick and a 2nd rd pick in cap cost is almost $1.3 million.  

 

 

Edited March 28 by GASabresIUFan

[Chicken Boo]

7 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

The Chiefs haven't drafted a 1st Round WR for Mahomes since they added him. I guess they're a poor team to emulate? 

 

The Bills aren't the Chiefs.   

 

They should be a building a team that best suits Josh Allen, not Patrick Mahomes.

[OldTimer1960]

7 hours ago, biggerdaddynj said:

Ironic that in the year of the top WRs we’ll see in the draft for years to come that the Bills who desperately need a top tier young WR won’t get one.  Instead we’ll wind up with a WR it’ll take a couple of years to begin to develop.

 

Heard Greg Cossell breaking down the top 5 or 6 WRs and he essentially said only the top three are impact players the rest have warts that’ll take a couple of years to begin to develop.  

Just sad, really sad how I felt pre-combine and mocks and how I feel now.

The receiver class is very strong, but that doesn’t mean everyone in it is a future dominant receiver in the NFL, nor does it mean that a receiver that still needs development can’t contribute while they develop or that they won’t become outstanding.  I think fans expectations are a little high.  Patience will be required for many of these receivers and some who start modestly will become outstanding.  Most rookies take time unless they are so physically dominant that it carries over to the league immediately.  Even Bruce Smith had only 6.5 sacks as a rookie.

[DCOrange]

Unless Brian Thomas slides, I’d probably vote to skip WR at 28. After the top 4, I’m not really dying to take any of them in the first round. There should be plenty of talent available in the second and if we get nervous, we can trade up in the second round no problem. 

[OldTimer1960]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

What if the plan is to not to draft a receiver high at all? Sounds crazy right!  

 

However, I believe there is a scenario where Shakir becomes the Davis replacement next season.

 

Shakir's combine stats were nearly identical to Diggs' his draft year.  Their size, speed, jumping ability are nearly identical.  Last season, Shakir's 15.7 yards per catch was 12th in the NFL of wideouts with 30 or more receptions.  For comparison purposes, Mike Evans finished 10th in that stat at 15.9 and Justin Jefferson 11th at 15.8 (Davis was 6th at 16.6).  Shakir also had 17 20+ yard plays in only 45 targets.  To put that number into context, Tyreek Hill lead the NFL with 57 plays of 20+ yards on 171 targets.  That's 1 20 yard or longer play for every 3 targets.  Shakir's 17 20+ yard plays were 1 on every 2.6 targets.  Obvious this is a bit of a small sample size, but it does get one thinking.  Now add in that management spent their biggest FA contract on a slot receiver (Samuel) and this scenario begins to gain some traction.  Now add that management moved a guard to center, so is it really so far fetched to think they might move a receiver from the slot to the boundary, especially with Samuel and Kincaid to patrol the interior? I'll two other pieces of data in support of this scenario: 1. Beane has never drafted a WR in the 1st 3 rounds of a draft; 2. McD/Beane hate starting rookies.  We can look to Shakir's usage from year 1 to year 2 to illustrate how Bills management feels about playing most rookies.  

 

All that said, I personally believe Beane will break with tradition and draft a WR in the 1st 3 rounds in April, but I do believe that Shakir has a great chance of being the WR2 opening next season.  I believe this because Beane is also going to replace Diggs possibly after the 2024 season and certainly after the 2025 season.  My guess is in 2026 the starting WR1 and WR2 will be Shakir and whomever we draft in April.  As much as I want Thomas or Mitchell in Bills Blue and Red next season, I can see Beane trading back to add the 3rd rd pick traded for Douglas and then utilizing a 2nd rd pick or the new third on the receiver.  Guys like Worthy, Legette, Coleman or even Burton or Devontez Walker could be the guys on the radar.

 

FYI:

Mitchell 6-2, 205 lbs, 39.5 in vertical, 4.34 in the 40. 

Walker 6-1.5, 193 lbs, 40.5 in vertical, 4.36 in the 40. 

 

Not to be cynical, but the difference between a 1st rd pick and a 2nd rd pick in cap cost is almost $1.3 million.  

 

 

I like that Shakir was trending upward at a pretty high rate to end last year, but are we getting ahead of ourselves thinking no way do they draft competition for Shakir?  He caught 39 passes last year and defenses now have a year of film on him so they will try to take away what he thrived on last year.  
 

I am excited about Shakir, but I’m not sure that you can write it in ink that he is for sure a good starter in the slot or out wide.

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

but are we getting ahead of ourselves thinking no way do they draft competition for Shakir?

I never said that.  I said they may not draft a receiver as early as people here, including me, hope.  Last year our 3 starting WRs were 2 5th rd picks (Diggs & Shakir) and a 4th rd pick (Davis).  Just because a player was drafted on day 3 doesn’t mean they won’t be given a chance to earn PT.  Davis earned significant PT as a rookie. Brady increased Shakir’s usage and targets and Shakir delivered, likely earning Brady and McD’s trust in the process.
 

 

Edited March 28 by GASabresIUFan

[Warriorspikes51]

The only way anything else should even be considered is if a top 12-15 player drops to 28

 

I’d say 70% chance Beane is moving up for WR. Whether that’s 2-5 picks, into the teens or top 10 will be interesting!

[OldTimer1960]

29 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I never said that.  I said they may not draft a receiver as early as people here, including me, hope.  Last year our 3 starting WRs were 2 5th rd picks (Diggs & Shakir) and a 4th rd pick (Davis).  Just because a player was drafted on day 3 doesn’t mean they won’t be given a chance to earn PT.  Davis earned significant PT as a rookie. Brady increased Shakir’s usage and targets and Shakir delivered, likely earning Brady and McD’s trust in the process.
 

 

Sorry, didn’t mean to imply that you said that.  What I was trying to raise is the idea that maybe we shouldn’t rule out the possibility of drafting a “non-X” receiver early.  I still strongly believe that they need a big body WR, but I’m asking do they really want to avoid guys that are mostly or partially slot or move guys who are excellent prospects on the basis of having Samuel and a promising but not fully proven Shakir.

 

This is meant as a question to spark discussion not as me arguing one way or the other.

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I never said that.  I said they may not draft a receiver as early as people here, including me, hope.  Last year our 3 starting WRs were 2 5th rd picks (Diggs & Shakir) and a 4th rd pick (Davis).  Just because a player was drafted on day 3 doesn’t mean they won’t be given a chance to earn PT.  Davis earned significant PT as a rookie. Brady increased Shakir’s usage and targets and Shakir delivered, likely earning Brady and McD’s trust in the process.
 

 

 

 

I do get your point, and it's true.

 

But while you could say that Diggs was a 5th rounder, you could also say that we gave up a 1st for him.

 

But I agree that they love for their mid-to-late-round guys to make contributions if possible, and for the right guys they make it possible.

 

And I think people may be forgetting how good Shakir was getting near the end. In the last ten games he put up 536 yards, 53.6 YPG. If he manages that rate per game, 17 games would be 911 yards. And he was trending up.

[Turbo44]

3 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

The only way anything else should even be considered is if a top 12-15 player drops to 28

 

I’d say 70% chance Beane is moving up for WR. Whether that’s 2-5 picks, into the teens or top 10 will be interesting!

Beane does like to move up but it may not make sense this year.  He's not trading into the top 10 to get one of the top 3 and Thomas probablly goes in the lowe to mid teens.  Too rich to move up to that.  Unless Beane really loves a guy in tier 2, there's no reason to move up from 28 as a few of these guys will be there:  Mitchell, Franklin, coleman, Worthy, McConkey. I would rather trade down into the early 2nd and grab ones of these guys and an extra pick (2025 2nd or 2024 3rd is about proper value).  The only was I see Beane trading up is:

1. If Thomas drops to around 19/20 = doubtful

2. Beane loves one of the tier 2 guys better than the rest and wants to make sure he gets him = like he did with Kinkaid.  Probably not necessary, but he may do it.

[Warriorspikes51]

still waiting to see what Blackmon does.  Would love for him to accept the contract offer we supposedly presented him with.

Take Safety off the board for us.  As it is, there's likely to be good value at Safety in Round 4 anyway.  No need to take one high 

Edited March 28 by Warriorspikes51

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

The only way anything else should even be considered is if a top 12-15 player drops to 28

 

I’d say 70% chance Beane is moving up for WR. Whether that’s 2-5 picks, into the teens or top 10 will be interesting!

 

 

Clearly you could be right.

 

I'd put the odds of that closer to 20 - 30%, myself.

 

We'll see. But I'd put the odds of moving into the top ten at just about zero. Trading up far enough to require giving up high round picks the next year is just not best practices unless you're trying to acquire a franchise quarterback. 

 

Doing it for another position works out badly more often than not. And that's not me, that's what all of the studies say.

 

https://www.bruinsportsanalytics.com/post/nfl_trading_down

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/opinion/nfl-draft.html

Massey and Thaler    https://faculty.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/massey---thaler---losers-curse---management-science-july-2013.pdf

Harvard Sports Analysis Collective   https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/04/25/dont-trade-up-in-the-nfl-draft/

 

There are plenty more and they all say much the same thing. Not that you should never trade up. But that you shouldn't be overpaying by using such strategies as trading next year's 1st rounders because of your faith in one player you have targeted. You lower your chance of success.

 

Beane has said he knows this. And IMO he'd be even likelier not to do that in a year where we're already lacking a 3rd round pick.