Beane Discusses Draft Strategy w/ Pat McAfee

[Governor]

Beane drafts BPA at position of extreme need in McD’s weird defense so that eliminates quite a few players that are likely better overall talent.

[JerseyBills]

What he said makes perfect sense and absolutely how I want my GM thinking 

[BullBuchanan]

14 hours ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

 

Sounds like Beane's going with a position of need that has less depth than receiver UNLESS he has the receiver graded higher. That doesn't sound good for pick 28. It sounds rational. But does have me wondering what round he'll take a WR? Unless it's smoke. 

Good. It's the smart thing to do.

[SoonerBillsFan]

He needs to cut the BS and take a WR.  Give Josh a legit 1st round talent and another weapon at WR.

[gonzo1105]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Can you quantify what, exactly, that you are "waiting" for?  

 

And if the process that's brought you to this conclusion is that the Bills can be a great passing team with an average WR corps, think again.

 

The Bills have finished just 9th-11th in passing yards each of the last 3 seasons and as a result JA17 has had to take it on himself to will the team to victory by any means necessary.   He has had to turn into RB2 in the second half of each season since the Bills WR corp peaked in the first half of 2020.  

 

WR is a problem that they should have been more serious about addressing since the END of the 2020 season finished with their undersized receiving corps falling on it's face in the playoffs(due both to wear and tear and their lack of physicality/size at a time when the refs put away the flags).

 

They are at the point now where they need to get an X receiver AND draft a guy to replace Diggs in 2025(or maybe late 2024 if he falls off again).

 

And I know @Alphadawg7 thinks Shakir can just move outside and get 80 more targets and become WR1 but SO MANY others blindly thought the same way about Gabe Davis getting an expanded role.    We just don't know what a 40-50 target guy is going to look like getting double work.   And he's 24 months from free agency too.

 

The reality is that it's long overdue to get serious about adding high-end talent to this WR corps and NOW is the time because it's an excellent WR draft.   

 

 

 

 

You don’t seem to understand that my whole process is to make people think. HappyDays said that 27 WRs and 13 of them came in the first round this past year. 
 

I rebutted that WR play is highly contingent on QB play. I said that to him and he didn’t respond because he knew it hurt his argument at the time. 
 

Then when I responded that only 3 of 12 WRs have 1,000 yards on their first two years after he states that 1,000 yards shouldn’t be hard for a guy he rebutted with well most of those guys don’t have Josh Allen and a guy should easily be able to eclipse 1,000 yards( my original point). 
 

I then said if that is now his point than the Bills can be willing to wait until round 2 to get their WR. 
 

 

He talked out of both sides his mouth, used my original point, got caught and conveniently didn’t respond again. I’m not against WR in the first round. 
 

The whole idea of my post was to say it’s not as easy as snap your fingers and you have 1,000 yards for a rookie or 2nd year guy and most of the guys who achieved that were taken in the top 15 of the draft not in late round 1. 
 

Do you understand what I’m putting down yet or do I need to further explain it? 

[HappyDays]

42 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

He talked out of both sides his mouth, used my original point, got caught and conveniently didn’t respond again. I’m not against WR in the first round.

 

What are you on about? I didn't respond because your post went all over the place and I decided we had each said our side and that was that. But sure I'll respond to your callout.

 

Perhaps you don't realize that two things can be true at once? In this case, really three things:

 

1) 1st round WRs are much more likely to turn into 1,000 yard WRs.

 

2) WRs that play with elite QBs are much more likely to turn into 1,000 yards.

 

3) This WR draft class in particular is strong in the top 50 picks.

 

That is my whole point. Because of these three statements all being (inarguably) true, the most likely valuable thing the Bills can do in this draft is pick a WR in the 1st round.

 

I'll let you have the last word. Don't waste it.

[Don Otreply]

13 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Adam Thielen got 1,000 yards last year, at the age of 33, playing in a hilariously awful passing offense. It really isn't that hard, especially when you have an elite QB throwing you the ball. The Bills just haven't made a serious effort to get a 1,000 yard caliber WR since 2020.

 

By putting together that list of other WRs you're completely missing my point. In our offense with our QB a 1st round WR is most likely to end up being a high impact high value pick. If you draft them to a team led by Sam Howell or Mason Rudolph, probably not.

 

@Kirby Jacksonsaid it best in another thread. If we are going to win a Super Bowl, it will be because of Josh Allen. Not because of our DL rotation. We have to start doing everything we can to maximize Allen's abilities on the field because his career will be gone before we know it. You do that by adding weapons when the opportunity is there. If this 1st round class doesn't represent that kind of opportunity, none of them ever will.

 

FWIW I believe Beane knows this. He can go on McAfee and make a big show about how he's going to wait to take deeper position groups (like WR) later in the draft. His actions tell me otherwise. He called Curtis Samuel a "weapon," not a WR. He hasn't added a legitimate outside WR in FA. He didn't restructure Diggs' contract. They've met with all of the 2nd tier WR prospects. All of this evidence points to him drafting a WR high with the intention of them being our future #1.

I sure hope so,  opportunity is knocking and I’d like to think Beane is gonna open the door at 28, and invite in our next WR weapon. 

 

 

But sadly I am ready for the disappointment of yet another rotational D-line guy…for our ever so vaunted post season defense…,  

[Einstein's Dog]

4 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

I sure hope so,  opportunity is knocking and I’d like to think Beane is gonna open the door at 28, and invite in our next WR weapon. 

 

 

But sadly I am ready for the disappointment of yet another rotational D-line guy…for our ever so vaunted post season defense…,  

We want more than just a WR out of this draft though.  WR, DL, and S.  Players who are part of the future in short time.

 

I think Beane will have to think long and hard about moving back a little if his preferred non-prima donna WRs are all still there at 28 - Legette/K Coleman and maybe T Franklin.

[Don Otreply]

4 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

We want more than just a WR out of this draft though.  WR, DL, and S.  Players who are part of the future in short time.

 

I think Beane will have to think long and hard about moving back a little if his preferred non-prima donna WRs are all still there at 28 - Legette/K Coleman and maybe T Franklin.

If that were to happen and Beane actually has a trading partner, and we get the wideout we need…,  I don’t care how it is achieved, as long as it happens, like I said, opportunity is knocking. 

[Maynard]

10 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I’m hoping we move up in first and get Thomas…or Odunze it he slides close enough because of an early QB run and someone like Cowboys over drafts Worthy ahead of Odunze.  I’m also ok moving back from 28 and taking a WR and picking up maybe a 3rd in doing so.  I’m also fine going BPA if it’s another position and then maybe trading up in the 2nd to go get our guy.

 

Draft is so deep and rich at WR, so I’m good with a number of scenarios.  I don’t feel like it’s gotta be one particular way this year.

Odunze will not make it past Chicago’s pick at 9. Williams and Odunze have apparently become quite close. 

10 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I’m hoping we move up in first and get Thomas…or Odunze it he slides close enough because of an early QB run and someone like Cowboys over drafts Worthy ahead of Odunze.  I’m also ok moving back from 28 and taking a WR and picking up maybe a 3rd in doing so.  I’m also fine going BPA if it’s another position and then maybe trading up in the 2nd to go get our guy.

 

Draft is so deep and rich at WR, so I’m good with a number of scenarios.  I don’t feel like it’s gotta be one particular way this year.

Odunze will not make it past Chicago’s pick at 9. Williams and Odunze have apparently become quite close. 

[Alphadawg7]

8 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

"Lol, expect".........I said you think he CAN.

 

I never said you think that WILL happen.   Not withstanding your opinion that he's blocking Shakir's ascension to WR1.

 

Do I think Shakir is capable of a 1000+ yard season if he got the targets…yes I do.  I was on him going into the draft and even said prior to the draft to keep an eye on Shakir to the Bills.  And nothing he’s done since arriving has deterred my confidence in him as a WR.  
 

I however didn’t say he would primarily be a boundary WR or even a WR1 as you just said in your posts.  He will be someone that will move inside and out and is an ascending player whose efficiency last year was more than impressive.  13.5 yards per target is crazy good to go along with like an 87% catch rate.    
 

So yes, I’m confident in him, he’s earned that.  But there’s no reason to over exaggerate my confidence in him the way you are as if I’m making bigger claims for him than I am.

 

 

Edited March 27 by Alphadawg7

[DCofNC]

18 hours ago, Blackbeard said:

Beane is one of THE BEST GMs in the league.  

 

I have full faith in him.  

Yeah man, he’s got this roster STACKED with stars at so many positions, the critics here need to chill.

[Allen2Moulds]

Even the best have to get lucky. I was just listening to a podcast, I forgot who the guest was, but they said that KC really wanted Paxton Lynch, and attempted to trade in front of Denver to get him, but was unable to. Had they been successful, no Mahomes or Chris Jones. 

[colin]

didn't we trade up for kinkaid?  we traded down for tre, but up (i think) for elam.  we traded up for josh, and i THINK for edmunds.  we've done some 2nd round and perhaps 3rd round (that im forgetting) trade ups too.

 

we traded our first for diggs as well.

 

it's clear to me beane looks at the draft as a place to get talent, and does not see much value in just having draft picks (remember when new england was obsessed with 2nd round picks and traded like every year for them?  lol).  with 11 picks, i think we are keeping at most 7 players we draft this year, and maybe less (as in, on opening day).  the WR, S, DT and DE free agency signings shows me they filled out as much need and depth that they could prior to the draft, so it is a pretty sure bet that beane will target his guys as they are potentially available, and wheel and deal all over the place to get them.

 

most likely, i think there is less of a run on wrs than expected, so he'll trade up to get someone he sees as a like top 4 or 5 wr and a like 12th best player at pick 15-20.

 

i think 2nd and 3rd round trades are likely too, where he grabs someone they think is a stud S or 3 tech as well.  OL and big RB are the other things we walk away with earlier rather than later in the draft.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

You don’t seem to understand that my whole process is to make people think. HappyDays said that 27 WRs and 13 of them came in the first round this past year. 
 

I rebutted that WR play is highly contingent on QB play. I said that to him and he didn’t respond because he knew it hurt his argument at the time. 
 

Then when I responded that only 3 of 12 WRs have 1,000 yards on their first two years after he states that 1,000 yards shouldn’t be hard for a guy he rebutted with well most of those guys don’t have Josh Allen and a guy should easily be able to eclipse 1,000 yards( my original point). 
 

I then said if that is now his point than the Bills can be willing to wait until round 2 to get their WR. 
 

 

He talked out of both sides his mouth, used my original point, got caught and conveniently didn’t respond again. I’m not against WR in the first round. 
 

The whole idea of my post was to say it’s not as easy as snap your fingers and you have 1,000 yards for a rookie or 2nd year guy and most of the guys who achieved that were taken in the top 15 of the draft not in late round 1. 
 

Do you understand what I’m putting down yet or do I need to further explain it? 

 

 

The problem is that your argument is too rudimentary.      

 

Case in point.........what position that you can draft in round 1 is "as easy as snapping your fingers and you have (the equivalent) of 1,000 yards for a rookie"?    

 

As you should know.......the answer is NONE.

 

Only about 50% of 1st round picks actually play well enough prior to their 4th season(let alone in a rookie season) to warrant their team picking up their 5th year option after year 3.    

 

And then there are levels of success with these fringe 1st/2nd level picks.    The Bills were overdue for adding a big play WR in the 2022 draft......but instead chose to address an on-paper need at CB in Kaiir Elam instead of taking the "over-aged", small school Christian Watson that some of us preferred taking a risk on.    Watson has not been a star yet..........but he's shown flashes.   He's produced big plays put up 1,000 yards and 12 TD's and has to be accounted for due to his explosive ability in his first 2 seasons and set a floor for the top young WR corps in the NFL(because they KEPT investing, as the Bills should this year).

 

Elam has been a bust so far and outperformed by a 6th rounder.     

 

So yeah, we want a guy who will produce 1,000 yards as a rookie WR in round 1 but the reality that the player might not hit that number isn't a persuasive argument against the selection of one.    If you are going to be teaching class your lectures need more depth.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

15 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

What if a player at another position of need (say a DE) has 9.2 grade at 28 and the next best guy at that same position has a 7.9 grade.  Now the best WR left on the board has an 8.7 and of the 7 WR's listed above they are all tightly graded from 8.5 to 8.7 amongst themselves. 

 

Wouldn't you agree that it would be absolutely best to take the 9.2 player and then grab say even the 8.5 WR over reaching for say the 8.7 WR and being stuck with the 7.9 guy at the other position for our first 2 rounds?

 

 

In your scenario, that's easy - you pick the edge. Because (without getting too bogged down in the hypothetical grading system) a difference of half a point is probably at least one tier difference on the draft board. There it isn't about whether the drop off is bigger it is just about taking the guy who is clearly the best player at a premium position. 

 

The difficult scenario is if it is closer and the other way around.... so let's say your highest graded remaining player is a wide receiver, at 8.9 and the next best is an edge at 8.7 and the drop off at edge is down to your 7.9 example but you have 6 receivers between 8.6 and 8.0 that is where it gets tricky. But Beane also has to weigh up how likely is he to then be able to get any of his 6 other closely graded receivers? Because it is okay in theory saying "the drop off is bigger at edge" but you have to really look at the drop off between the guys there at #28 and what is likely to be there at #60. If you think the likelihood is all six of the receivers in between are gone the next time you get on the clock then the drop off being less is pretty irrelevant. 

 

The only scenario in which you take a guy other than receiver is if the guy you have BPA sticking out on the board is higher tier of prospect (not just 0.1 or 0.2 difference) and is at a premium position. 

[BillsVet]

9 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

I love Beane. That said, I don't hace confidence that there will be difference making WRs near pick 28 and I don't see us hitting on an early rd DE because frankly I don't have confidence in this FO's ability to identify and draft DLmen. A rotational DT plays 40-50% of the snaps and is involved in every single play they are on the field for. A backup WR, which is what I believe will be left around 28, can run dozens of routes and will realistically affect 4-6 plays with catches and maybe a couple more if they can block well. Unless we get a gift dropped in our lap I don't really see how a top 5-10 WR is better for our team than a rotational piece with upside. We are going to put Shakir, Samuel and Diggs out there half the plays and drop Shakir to put in another TE in 12 personnel. There are realistically 4 WRs that could come in and convince this staff to sit Shakir or Samuel and we're not sniffing them barring a miracle.  

 

This is a defeatist mentality based on their late position in RD1 and something I've seen over the years.  It's like Whaley moaning about being in QB purgatory, yet some years later a new regime at OBD emphasized going to get their guy...and did it.  I get that it's a cultural thing though...most people are scared to death of any risk now.  Why not apply that outlook to the football team?    

 

Your assertion that a rotational DT who "is involved in every single play" is surface-level analysis.  He's on the field perhaps 30-40 snaps and comes into contact with the opponent OL.  Great.  But reducing a WR to only impact 4-6 plays because they were targeted or made a catch is delusional.  A guy who has speed affects the game by creating opportunities for other receivers.  The work an opposing DC has to do accounting for that guy behind the scenes is something you completely miss.  

 

And lost in all this debate is that people continue viewing the draft as more for need than it really is.  If you're a good team and using the draft that way, you won't be a good team for long.  Another DT for a safe McDefense isn't going to do much long-term, even if he's a good starter.    

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In your scenario, that's easy - you pick the edge. Because (without getting too bogged down in the hypothetical grading system) a difference of half a point is probably at least one tier difference on the draft board. There it isn't about whether the drop off is bigger it is just about taking the guy who is clearly the best player at a premium position. 

 

The difficult scenario is if it is closer and the other way around.... so let's say your highest graded remaining player is a wide receiver, at 8.9 and the next best is an edge at 8.7 and the drop off at edge is down to your 7.9 example but you have 6 receivers between 8.6 and 8.0 that is where it gets tricky. But Beane also has to weigh up how likely is he to then be able to get any of his 6 other closely graded receivers? Because it is okay in theory saying "the drop off is bigger at edge" but you have to really look at the drop off between the guys there at #28 and what is likely to be there at #60. If you think the likelihood is all six of the receivers in between are gone the next time you get on the clock then the drop off being less is pretty irrelevant. 

 

The only scenario in which you take a guy other than receiver is if the guy you have BPA sticking out on the board is higher tier of prospect (not just 0.1 or 0.2 difference) and is at a premium position. 

What do you think of Ladd McConkey?

[gonzo1105]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

What are you on about? I didn't respond because your post went all over the place and I decided we had each said our side and that was that. But sure I'll respond to your callout.

 

Perhaps you don't realize that two things can be true at once? In this case, really three things:

 

1) 1st round WRs are much more likely to turn into 1,000 yard WRs.

 

2) WRs that play with elite QBs are much more likely to turn into 1,000 yards.

 

3) This WR draft class in particular is strong in the top 50 picks.

 

That is my whole point. Because of these three statements all being (inarguably) true, the most likely valuable thing the Bills can do in this draft is pick a WR in the 1st round.

 

I'll let you have the last word. Don't waste it.

 

So was the 2022 draft, hence why I brought it up. 6 WRs went in the first and 12 went in the first two rounds and I proved your point to be false in that. Sure you can look in hindsight and say it wasn’t as strong now but in 2022 it was considered considerably deep. 
 

Here is your list of 2023 1000 yards, whether they achieved it in their first two years and where they were drafted in their class. 
 

Tyreek Hill- Yes first two years , went in the 5th round 

 

Ceedee Lamb Yes first two years , 1st round 

Amon Ra St. Brown- Yes first two years 4th round

 

Puka Nacua - Yes 5th round

 

AJ Brown - Yes 2nd round

 

DJ Moore- Yes 1st round

 

Brandon Aiyuk- No 1st round

 

Nico Collins- Yes 3rd round

 

Mike Evans - Yes 1st round 

 

Amari Cooper- Yes 1st round

Keenan Allen Yes 3rd Round

 

Jamarr Chase Yes 1st Round

 

Stefon Diggs- No 5th Round

 

Michael Pittman- Yes 2nd Round

 

Davante Adams No- 2nd Round

 

Adam Thielen- No- Undrafted

 

George Pickens- Yes 2nd Round

 

Chris Olave Yes 1st Round 

 

DK Metcalf- Yes 2nd Round

 

Justin Jefferson Yes 1st Round 

Davonta  Smith - Yes 1st Round 

DeAndre Hopkins- Yes 1st Round

Garrett Wilson- Yes 1st Round

 

Chris Godwin- No 3rd Round

Calvin Ridley- No 1st Round

 

Adam Theilen- No Undrafted 

 

Jaylen Waddle- Yes 1st Round

 

Terry McLaurin- Yes 3rd round 

 

There are actually 28 WRs who had 1,000 yard season: 

 

Out of those 28, 21 of 28 achieved 1,000 yards in their first two years(75%) basically proving if your good your most likely going to prove it in your first two years

 

Out of those 28, 13 went in the first much like you said which is 36.4 % not exactly what I would call impressive for something to back up needing a 1st round WR

 

Out of those 13 WRs that went in the 1st round

 

Lamb went 17th, DJ Moore 24th, Aiyuk 25th, Evans 7th overall, Cooper 4th overall, Chase 5th overall, Olave 11th overall, Jefferson 22nd overall, Smith 10th overall, Hopkins 27th overall, Wilson 10th overall, Ridley 26th overall, Waddle 6th overall

 

7 out of the 13 went in the top 15 or 53%.

 

The only WRs that wouldn’t have cost a ton for a trade up were Aiyuk, Hopkins, Ridley, Jefferson, Moore. 38%. 
 

Aiyuk and Ridley didn’t achieve 1,000 yards in their first two years. 
 

The only other WR on this list that was drafted near the 28th pick that had 1,000 yards was Michael Pittman at 34th. Every other WR was drafted 50 or later that went in the 2nd round 

 

6 out of 28 1,000 yard WRs went in trade up range or slightly after the Bills pick at 28  or 21%

 

If anything, statistically speaking, based on your own data, The Bills have a 21% chance of getting a 1,000 yard WR based on 2023 1,000 yard WRs. 
 

Just to be fair for the last statistic I didn’t include most 2nd rounders because they went before pick 60 besides DK Metcalf who went 64th. So this excludes Aj Brown, George Pickens, and Devante Adams. 
 

10 of the 28 guys were drafted after pick 60 or 35%
 

Now for your last point of it depends who your QB is:  Of course it does to an extent but not entirely. 

 

Hill, Waddle, St Brown, Lamb, Nacua, Brown, Collins, Allen, Chase, Diggs, Smith, Ridley, Aiyuk, Jefferson imo and it’s my opinion got good to great QB play most of the year. 

 

McLaurin, Theilen, Evans, Godwin, Wilson, Adams, Hopkins, Pittman, Pittman, Olave, Pickens, Metcalf received inconsistent play imo again

9 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The problem is that your argument is too rudimentary.      

 

Case in point.........what position that you can draft in round 1 is "as easy as snapping your fingers and you have (the equivalent) of 1,000 yards for a rookie"?    

 

As you should know.......the answer is NONE.

 

Only about 50% of 1st round picks actually play well enough prior to their 4th season(let alone in a rookie season) to warrant their team picking up their 5th year option after year 3.    

 

And then there are levels of success with these fringe 1st/2nd level picks.    The Bills were overdue for adding a big play WR in the 2022 draft......but instead chose to address an on-paper need at CB in Kaiir Elam instead of taking the "over-aged", small school Christian Watson that some of us preferred taking a risk on.    Watson has not been a star yet..........but he's shown flashes.   He's produced big plays put up 1,000 yards and 12 TD's and has to be accounted for due to his explosive ability in his first 2 seasons and set a floor for the top young WR corps in the NFL(because they KEPT investing, as the Bills should this year).

 

Elam has been a bust so far and outperformed by a 6th rounder.     

 

So yeah, we want a guy who will produce 1,000 yards as a rookie WR in round 1 but the reality that the player might not hit that number isn't a persuasive argument against the selection of one.    If you are going to be teaching class your lectures need more depth.

 

 

You’re talking to the wrong guy again brother. I’m not the one who said I can snap my finger and get a 1,000 yard WR by year 2 he did. Nor have I said we’ll get a star at any position. He’s the one who brought up 1,000 yard WRs. Watson doesn’t fit his criteria for his original argument so your point on Watson is null and void on this topic 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

What do you think of Ladd McConkey?

 

Good player but he seems to replicate skillsets we have on the roster. I think he will ultimately do a lot of his damage in the NFL from the slot. He is a bit like Samuel he can do some outside stuff and be moved around the formation but he isn't going to be a game wrecking outside receiver. He is going to be a guy who lines up all over catches the ball and gets some YAC. I don't think you have much diversity in your receiving corps with a 30 year old Diggs plus Samuel, Shakir and McConkey.