Beane Discusses Draft Strategy w/ Pat McAfee

[MJS]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

It really shouldn't be much of a shock. That's been the way Brandon has run the draft almost every year since he's been here. 

Not really. He trades up for the guys he wants. He seems to target specific positions of need. He doesn't appear to draft BPA or focus on just player value to me.

[<bills4life>]

1 hour ago, TheWeatherMan said:

What we think McBeane will do:

 

1st: WR

2nd: S

4th: C

4th: WR

 

What McBeane will do:

 

1st: DT

2nd: DE

4th: S

4th: CB

 

 

 

 

And then we will hear the proverbial “beane is a wizard” “in beane we trust” and “big baller beane”.

[Alphadawg7]

16 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Part of being a good GM is understanding your own weaknesses. I hope Beane understands that his board is not infallible. Which is no slight against him - nobody's draft board ends up being even close to right when all is said and done. If you're right even 50% of the time you're one of the best to have ever done it.

 

All the talk about BPA assumes there is some kind of objective BPA. But of course there isn't one. So Beane should make the pick that is most likely to have a high impact ceiling on the team. Any WR he takes that turns out even just a decent 1st round pick will end up being a 1,000+ yard WR. Just like Kincaid ended up breaking franchise records. So drafting what he thinks is the best WR available is hitting the easy button on maximizing the 1st round pick. Drafting, say, Chop Robinson is hitting the hard button. That pick isn't likely to have the impact of a 1,000 yard WR.

 

Do the easy thing. Get the franchise a likely win out of our 1st round pick.

 

No disrespect, but you have a very unrealistic expectation if you assume any first round WR will be an "easy button to 1000 yard season".  Not only are the odds against that, but its probably more realistic to say a rookie elsewhere has less competition for snaps than any WR we draft who still has to share the targets with Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, Cook, and even Knox.  

 

Let me first be clear...I also WANT us to get a WR early this draft, in fact, I am hoping we make a small move up and go get Thomas.  This is a great shot at getting an heir to Diggs, and I am all for it.  But I also don't want to reach for a WR either for just the sake of taking one.  

 

But your 1000 yard easy button comments is just not realistic unless injuries pave the way for it.  Not only do we typically bring rookies along slowly unless we have no choice, but Diggs, Shakir, Kincaid, Samuel, Cook, and Knox are all going to get their targets and without injuries creating opportunities, any rookie we draft is most likely to put up 500-700 yards at best this season.  

 

Again, I am also wanting to go WR and even trade up for Thomas.  However, I don't want to reach for someone either at 28 just for the sake of taking a WR, reaching is never a sound draft strategy.  

[billsfan89]

The Bills are going to take a WR or DL at pick 28. I don't think they view safety as a starting need but rather a depth need which can be addressed in the mid-rounds. The offensive line should be in play at pick 28 but I think they also look at that as more of a depth need. 

 

My ideal draft is the Bills can trade down to around the pick 35-40 range and pick up a 3rd round pick swapped for the Bills 7th and maybe a pick in 2025 depending on how far they go. Then they go WR early in round 2 and offensive line at pick 60. Then in round 3 go defensive line and in round 4 go defensive line and safety. The rest of the draft can be used to assess the depth needs at RB, OL and CB along with possibly getting a kicker and or punter. 

[GoBills808]

13 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No disrespect, but you have a very unrealistic expectation if you assume any first round WR will be an "easy button to 1000 yard season".  Not only are the odds against that, but its probably more realistic to say a rookie elsewhere has less competition for snaps than any WR we draft who still has to share the targets with Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, Cook, and even Knox.  

 

Let me first be clear...I also WANT us to get a WR early this draft, in fact, I am hoping we make a small move up and go get Thomas.  This is a great shot at getting an heir to Diggs, and I am all for it.  But I also don't want to reach for a WR either for just the sake of taking one.  

 

But your 1000 yard easy button comments is just not realistic unless injuries pave the way for it.  Not only do we typically bring rookies along slowly unless we have no choice, but Diggs, Shakir, Kincaid, Samuel, Cook, and Knox are all going to get their targets and without injuries creating opportunities, any rookie we draft is most likely to put up 500-700 yards at best this season.  

 

Again, I am also wanting to go WR and even trade up for Thomas.  However, I don't want to reach for someone either at 28 just for the sake of taking a WR, reaching is never a sound draft strategy.  

If the rookie is good then the idea that guys like Shakir/Samuel/Knox are going to eat into his targets would be concerning...I hope they're not thinking that way anymore

 

 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

If the rookie is good then the idea that guys like Shakir/Samuel/Knox are going to eat into his targets would be concerning...I hope they're not thinking that way anymore

 

 

 

 

 

You are grossly undervaluing Shakir and Kincaids abilities in this offense.  

 

Do you know that Shakir averaged 13.5 yards per target?  Not per catch...per TARGET last year.  Thats is insane and it came with like an 87% catch rate.  He was without question our best WR down the stretch and in the playoffs last year.  Kincaid put up a very good rookie year as well.  Both these guys are young.  

 

There is very little chance that any rookie we will draft at WR that will average both 13.5 yards per target with an over 80% catch rate.  Its just not likely gonna happen, that is crazy efficient.

 

Again, I also want a WR...but as unrealistic as you have been about trading Diggs, you are equally underestimating the roles and abilities of Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, and Cook will bring to this offense this year.

Edited March 26 by Alphadawg7

[Allen2Moulds]

Beane in the past, has said that WR is one of the toughest positions for him to evaluate. It may of been after the Diggs trade, and why they chose the trade route, despite it being a very good WR class that year. I just hope, that doesn't keep him away from drafting one early. If we don't come away with a WR in round 1 or 2, I think 90% of the board will be disappointed, myself included.

He'll obviously never say, but I'm sure Diggs's antics are probably wearing thin on him, and might be motivating him to find his successor.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You are grossly undervaluing Shakir and Kincaids abilities in this offense.  

 

Do you know that Shakir averaged 13.5 yards per target?  Not per catch...per TARGET last year.  Thats is insane and it came with like an 87% catch rate.  He was without question our best WR down the stretch and in the playoffs last year.  Kincaid put up a very good rookie year as well.  Both these guys are young.  

 

There is very little chance that any rookie we will draft at WR that will average both 13.5 yards per target with an over 80% catch rate.  Its just not likely gonna happen, that is crazy efficient.

 

Again, I also want a WR...but as unrealistic as you have been about trading Diggs, you are equally underestimating the roles and abilities of Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, and Cook will bring to this offense this year.

only Bills fans could possibly be worried about Brian Thomas Jr taking targets away from Khalil Shakir lol

 

 

[HappyDays]

27 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No disrespect, but you have a very unrealistic expectation if you assume any first round WR will be an "easy button to 1000 yard season".  Not only are the odds against that, but its probably more realistic to say a rookie elsewhere has less competition for snaps than any WR we draft who still has to share the targets with Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, Kincaid, Cook, and even Knox.  

 

Let me first be clear...I also WANT us to get a WR early this draft, in fact, I am hoping we make a small move up and go get Thomas.  This is a great shot at getting an heir to Diggs, and I am all for it.  But I also don't want to reach for a WR either for just the sake of taking one.  

 

But your 1000 yard easy button comments is just not realistic unless injuries pave the way for it.  Not only do we typically bring rookies along slowly unless we have no choice, but Diggs, Shakir, Kincaid, Samuel, Cook, and Knox are all going to get their targets and without injuries creating opportunities, any rookie we draft is most likely to put up 500-700 yards at best this season.  

 

Again, I am also wanting to go WR and even trade up for Thomas.  However, I don't want to reach for someone either at 28 just for the sake of taking a WR, reaching is never a sound draft strategy.  

 

So to be clear, I'm not guaranteeing that any WR we draft in the 1st round will be a 1,000+ yard WR. There is obviously a chance they will be a complete and utter bust. That is the risk of any pick.

 

My point is that if you assume you end up decently happy with the 1st round pick - not a bust, not a superstar, just a solid overall 1st round pick - if that player is a WR their impact is likely to be higher than any other position. Ideally a WR we take in the 1st round would get 1,500+ yards in a season at some point, but a good baseline for a decent value pick in that spot would be 1,000 yards by their sophomore season.

 

I'll use Kincaid and Rousseau as examples. Kincaid had a solid rookie season. No one would say he set the league on fire. But that solid rookie season translated into franchise records, a clear measurable impact on the offense, and a TD in a playoff game. Rousseau on the other hand has been a solid player since entering the league. I haven't felt that kind of impact from him yet. His playoff highlight was grazing Mahomes' shoulder on a play that ended in a 1st down.

 

To maximize the likelihood that the 1st round pick will have a measurably high impact on the team, it has to be a WR. Playing in an offense with Allen and a decent mix of supporting talent means their floor will be higher than any other position we can take.

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

Not really. He trades up for the guys he wants. He seems to target specific positions of need. He doesn't appear to draft BPA or focus on just player value to me.

Not really. He moves up for one of the last remaining players with a 1st round grade. Of  course I believe the Allen trade was different. That's a lot different than saying "I need a ....." and moving up to where they are being taken. He has pretty much stayed true to his board and that's why people here keep yelling about certain picks at spots.

[billsfan89]

22 minutes ago, Allen2Moulds said:

Beane in the past, has said that WR is one of the toughest positions for him to evaluate. It may of been after the Diggs trade, and why they chose the trade route, despite it being a very good WR class that year. I just hope, that doesn't keep him away from drafting one early. If we don't come away with a WR in round 1 or 2, I think 90% of the board will be disappointed, myself included.

He'll obviously never say, but I'm sure Diggs's antics are probably wearing thin on him, and might be motivating him to find his successor.

Odd for Beane to say that because he’s found good receivers with mid to late round selections.
 

Shakir was a 5th round pick and Gabe Davis (who may not have been the WR2 the team needed but he was still productive) was a 4th round pick. They also drafted Ray Ray McCloud who turned out to be a good returner and “gadget” WR for other teams in round 6. 
 

That’s a pretty good record for drafting WR’s in the mid to late rounds. I do think that what Beane will do is take the BPA at DL or WR at pick 28 if there is not a trade down available. Which I am fine with.

[Dr. Who]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

So to be clear, I'm not guaranteeing that any WR we draft in the 1st round will be a 1,000+ yard WR. There is obviously a chance they will be a complete and utter bust. That is the risk of any pick.

 

My point is that if you assume you end up decently happy with the 1st round pick - not a bust, not a superstar, just a solid overall 1st round pick - if that player is a WR their impact is likely to be higher than any other position. Ideally a WR we take in the 1st round would get 1,500+ yards in a season at some point, but a good baseline for a decent value pick in that spot would be 1,000 yards by their sophomore season.

 

I'll use Kincaid and Rousseau as examples. Kincaid had a solid rookie season. No one would say he set the league on fire. But that solid rookie season translated into franchise records, a clear measurable impact on the offense, and a TD in a playoff game. Rousseau on the other hand has been a solid player since entering the league. I haven't felt that kind of impact from him yet. His playoff highlight was grazing Mahomes' shoulder on a play that ended in a 1st down.

 

To maximize the likelihood that the 1st round pick will have a measurably high impact on the team, it has to be a WR. Playing in an offense with Allen and a decent mix of supporting talent means their floor will be higher than any other position we can take.

I'll throw a couple of names out for illustration. I'm not going to talk about the DTs, Murphy or Newton. Don't know if they will be there at #28. I'd still rather go WR, but I think they are reasonable late first picks. Newton is better than that, I think. Regardless, backup 3T  to Ed Oliver isn't going to make the same impact as WR2. I think Legette is likely to be there at #28. I don't think it's a certainty, though lots of folks are sure he's a late second or thereabouts. Thomas I would be amazed to see there. You have to trade up. Mitchell is a maybe. I don't think he's one of your favorites. I like him. I like McConkey, but l want to focus on Legette. If the choice is Legette or either one of the Robinsons, Legette has a much clearer path to making a difference. He is the kind of receiver that can put fear in the defender, because he can truck you. Yes, a one year, slightly older fella. Otherwise, he's not there for you at #28. Legette is a genuine replacement for Davis, where Samuel is a gadget guy plus.

 

So, I don't see a situation where it is likely the WR sitting there at #28 isn't the most compelling choice, unless you have an agenda and McD wants the first toy for his precious.

[Don Otreply]

3 hours ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:

Rule of thumb, don’t trust a single word from any GM this time of year…

Ya know, He could be saying exactly what he is gonna do, knowing full well that nobody is gonna believe a word of it, me, I expect to be completely disappointed when we take another receiver in the fifth round so that Justin Shorter has somebody to hangout with…, 

[90sBills]

Has to be WR at 28. 

[Warriorspikes51]

Beane WR Freight Train

 

Allen A-Bomb offense ignite

 

60, 128, 2025 1st, 3rd for SEA 16

Diggs, 133, 2025 4th for DAL 24 

 

16. BTJ

24. XL

28. XW 

 

🤯 😏 

 

 

[Allen2Moulds]

21 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Odd for Beane to say that because he’s found good receivers with mid to late round selections.
 

Shakir was a 5th round pick and Gabe Davis (who may not have been the WR2 the team needed but he was still productive) was a 4th round pick. They also drafted Ray Ray McCloud who turned out to be a good returner and “gadget” WR for other teams in round 6. 
 

That’s a pretty good record for drafting WR’s in the mid to late rounds. I do think that what Beane will do is take the BPA at DL or WR at pick 28 if there is not a trade down available. Which I am fine with.

I agree, he has done well in the later half of the draft. I also agree with BPA at DL. I could also see them falling in love with a guy like Cooper Dejean (CB/S hybrid)

[Westside]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

There are no mysteries.  Beane has always been very clear about how he will handle the draft.  The problem is that the fans have their own views about needs and who's available in the draft, so they concoct all sorts of theories about what Beane is going to do. 

 

Here's what Beane is going to do:   

 

1.  Evaluate the players available and rank them.  

2.  Look for players the Bills covet at any position who may be falling to where the Bills pick.

3.  Maybe trade up to get one they like.  

4.  Do all of this with an understanding, THEIR understanding, of what the Bills need.  Their understanding and ours may be very different.  This season, in particular, their understanding of whether the Bills need a receiver and what kind of receiver may be very different from ours.  Their understanding of where to get what they need may also be very different from ours.  

Is this your own view? Did Beane call and tell you his plan? Did you concoct this theory?

[Alphadawg7]

32 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

So to be clear, I'm not guaranteeing that any WR we draft in the 1st round will be a 1,000+ yard WR. There is obviously a chance they will be a complete and utter bust. That is the risk of any pick.

 

My point is that if you assume you end up decently happy with the 1st round pick - not a bust, not a superstar, just a solid overall 1st round pick - if that player is a WR their impact is likely to be higher than any other position. Ideally a WR we take in the 1st round would get 1,500+ yards in a season at some point, but a good baseline for a decent value pick in that spot would be 1,000 yards by their sophomore season.

 

I'll use Kincaid and Rousseau as examples. Kincaid had a solid rookie season. No one would say he set the league on fire. But that solid rookie season translated into franchise records, a clear measurable impact on the offense, and a TD in a playoff game. Rousseau on the other hand has been a solid player since entering the league. I haven't felt that kind of impact from him yet. His playoff highlight was grazing Mahomes' shoulder on a play that ended in a 1st down.

 

To maximize the likelihood that the 1st round pick will have a measurably high impact on the team, it has to be a WR. Playing in an offense with Allen and a decent mix of supporting talent means their floor will be higher than any other position we can take.

 

Ideally, any early WR we take this year is someone you want to see ascend to WR1 when Diggs time is up here (maybe as early as next year) or his play falls off as he finishes his career here and falls back more to a WR2/3 role towards the end of his career.  Either way, ideally, we are drafting Diggs replacement.  Which means it may take until Diggs is no longer a Bill before any rookie we draft hits 1000+ yard season (barring injuries creating an earlier opporunity) because the rest of our pass catchers are both young and talented, meaning they will have significant roles themselves in Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, and even Cook.  

 

Also, comparing Kincaid to Rousseau isn't really fair as they were not in the same draft.  So lets look at Rousseau's draft:  The next 5 WRs off the board after his pick were:  E. Moore, R. Moore, D. Eskridge, T. Atwell, T. Marshall.  So lets say the Bills pass on Rousseau and instead reach for one of those 5 players...do you really think the Bills are better off if they pass on Rousseau for one of those pedestrian WR's?  I mean 3 of them are scrubs, and 2 of them are decent, but nothing special and certainly not more valuable than a starting DE like Rousseau.  

 

And again, I am on the WR early band wagon, just saying I go into every draft with the mindset of not reaching is the best practice unless absolutely necessary.  And I do not at all think it is necessary to reach at WR this year based on how good of weapons we already have and how rich and deep this draft is at WR.  

 

 

 

[HappyDays]

19 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

So lets look at Rousseau's draft:  The next 5 WRs off the board after his pick were:  E. Moore, R. Moore, D. Eskridge, T. Atwell, T. Marshall.  So lets say the Bills pass on Rousseau and instead reach for one of those 5 players...do you really think the Bills are better off if they pass on Rousseau for one of those pedestrian WR's?  I mean 3 of them are scrubs, and 2 of them are decent, but nothing special and certainly not more valuable than a starting DE like Rousseau.  

 

My point pertains to this draft. Most drafts won't have this many high quality WR prospects available at the end of the 1st round. I'm not criticizing the Rousseau pick in that particular draft, I'm saying that if we took a Rousseau equivalent while passing on say a Kincaid equivalent we would ultimately be disappointed. And in this draft class specifically there are going to be WRs taken somewhere between 28 and 60 that become high impact starters. I know this almost with complete certainty. I am not nearly as certain that a pass rusher or any other position on defense is going to have a high impact starter taken in that range in the draft.

 

Edited March 26 by HappyDays

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, Gambit said:

While I'm on team WR for RD 1, did people forget we drafted Kincaid in RD1 last year? Sure, he's not a WR but it's not like he isn't a awesome weapon for Allen.

True and Diggs was basically our first round pick in 2020.  His best WR acquisitions besides that have come in free agency with Brown and Beasley.  Shakir and Gabe are good day finds on day 3 to fill that WR3/4 role.  Now he has to show he can draft the eventual next WR1 for this team and this has to be the draft he does it in.