Is drafting Diggs replacement a priority in this draft?

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Who?  And does it take into account snaps played?

 

15 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

This year's savings would depend upon how much of his fully guaranteed salary a trade partner would take on, and it would mean shoving $22M dead cap into next season.  I don't think we want to do that, personally.

 

Whether that would make sense, would depend upon whether the Bills think they can field a competitive offense with whatever rookie and late FA pickups they might make, and what (after the draft) the trade partner is willing to offer.

 

 

Also "week 8 on", the whole season does actually count.  But to @FireChans, feel free to present your data.

Someone else made the post, but I can't find it, so here ya go.

 

Week 10 on stats:

 

Diggs: 8 games 63 targets 37 rec 349 yards 1 TD

 

Nacua: 7 games 64 targets 41 rec 659 yards 4 TD

 

Rice: 7 games 61 targets 47 rec 560 yards 3 TD

 

Addison: 8 games 49 targets 29 rec 377 yards 3 TD

 

Flowers: 7 games 46 targets 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD

 

Reed: 7 games 49 targets 36 rec 376 yards 4 TD

 

JSN: 8 games 45 targets 30 rec 303 yards 2 TD

 

So everyone can miss me with "we can't expect a rookie to replace Diggs' production." He was garbage down the stretch, and if he's closer to that guy than the guy he was for the first 9 weeks of the year, he can easily be replaced.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

34 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Define awesome?

My guess is he has 95 catches for 1050-1100 yards. That would be his worst as a Bill and still one of the top WR seasons in Bills history.  

Would be sad to see him run out of town. Don't care what others think. He is the best most complete WR in franchise history.  

 

I don't back long enough to agree with the latter. He is the best this century is all I can say. But I don't consider your numbers as awesome. I think that would see him gone.

[Kaenon]

How do we get 2 guys on that list?

Do it!

[Kornfed]

How bout just somebody to compliment him. Diggs has shown so much and we fans have no idea why he tailed off last year. This man deserves the benefit of the doubt. .... Get somebody with potential to be Diggs equal and let things play out. 

[ganesh]

Diggs was firing on all cylinders in the first six games of the season...then what happend ?

[Alphadawg7]

8 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Yes, and considering the volume of quality wrs in this draft, we're looking to replace BOTH Diggs and Davis. Samuel is a nice signing but he's more a high end WR3. Shakir being a high end WR4. 

 

And personally I'm tired of worrying about whether Stef's head is in the game anymore. His playoff drop-off these last 2 years speaks volumes. 

You are way under estimating Shakir.  He needs to be a big part of this offense and was the best WR down the stretch and in the postseason last year.  
 

Give him 120+ taegets and he puts up 90+ rec for 1300+ yards and double digit TDs.  

 

Now he’s never going to get those targets here, too many mouths to feed, but if he went to somewhere where he got those targets he would be a machine.  

[Turbo44]

After doing thorough research, if Thomas jr falls to the late teens, you do whatever you need to trade up and get him.  The dropoff from the top three to him is slight and a lot less than him to the next batch.  28, our 2025 2nd and a midround 2024 pick or two should get it done.  He's that good

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

I agree. And Josh has never had a monster WR. Give him a guy he can just throw high balls to. We always see guys like Garrett Wilson, Courtland Sutton and the like make big contested catches against the Bills. I'd like the Bills to be able to do that. Paired with Diggs, Samuel, Kincaid, Shakir, that's a versatile receiver group.

 

 

Kumerow was 6'4". Duke Williams was 6'3". He's had a monster. And he's had other guys who can go up and make contested catches, including Davis and Diggs.

 

Height isn't a non-factor. But it shouldn't be in the top three either. Fast, separation and a proven ability to run a varied route tree and to be effective at all levels should be higher priorities.

 

 

Edited March 24 by Thurman#1

[Richard Noggin]

13 hours ago, appoo said:

No. You can also trade for ready made WRs 

 

It's been said, but doing this, which is not super common or automatically available, requires a BIG, long term cap investment. Plus trade compensation. Trading a 1st for Diggs made sense with a young QB17 on a rookie deal. Doing it again with an elite QB17 on a big deal, with myriad cap constraints, makes much less sense. 

 

12 hours ago, Beck Water said:

I don't think of it as we need to "draft a Diggs replacement" in this draft per se in this draft, but this may be a matter of semantics.  I 100% believe we need to try to draft the best WR prospect we can get at our draft position or a reasonable maneuver.

 

The way I see it, offenses work better when they have two very good to elite WR.  Davis racked up 200 yds in the 2021 division round because the Chiefs were scared of Diggs and covered him like a blanket.  That proved to be somewhat of a 1-off occurrence rather than a steady diet, and Diggs doesn't elicit the same fear these days.

 

Then of course, there's the ever-present "what if he gets hurt?"  I thought Milano was the "indispensible man" on D, but to their credit the Bills made a combination of Poyer and Dodson work in his stead.  We need to have some option for Diggs - another WR who can step up and be that #1, at least on some of the snaps even if he's platooning with Samuel or Shakir.

 

So I 100% see the need for another good to elite WR to pair with Diggs who will hopefully grow into a #1 role, whether that's next year or 2 years from now.

 

We need to be able to rely on WR help we get in the draft, not signing FA at a very pricy position.

 

I agree insofar as Diggs isn't the main reason the Bills "should" be trying to add an awesome boundary WR prospect in this draft. Josh Allen, a presumably historic WR draft pool, and a lack of blue chip WR prospects currently in the pipeline, are the reasons why the Bills should be looking to get a guy in the first two rounds (if not the first). The Bills have invested less draft picks in the WR position than most top orgs over the last five seasons (even with a Diggs 1st and 4th)...and it's a perfect draft year to change that. 

 

12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

What data leads you to that very specific conclusion about "deep" passes being the only decline in their game?    

 

The Bills were 3rd in passing yards and Allen lead the league in completion % in 2020.

 

They have fallen off to between 9th and 11th each year and Allen's completion % and QB ratings have dropped significantly since.

 

Do you NOT recall 2022 in fall?  When Allen tore his arm.......'against the Jets......what a mess.    He was hurling nothing but intermediate and deep throws for much of the season thereafter.  

 

It's not like they've been reduced to a dink and dunk by a decline in the deep ball.    It's been much more than just that.

 

Their WR corps has just declined in quality quite drastically from prime Diggs/Beasley/Brown and Davis as WR4.

 

For much of 2020 they had arguably the most talented WR corps in the NFL and it was cited for helping elevate Allen's game to broadly unexpected heights.

 

A stack of deep WR drafts have followed and caused defense's to adapt to the depth around the league.  The amount of talent in most WR rooms around the league has only grown.    Teams have followed the plan to put big talent around their young QB.   The Bills, on the other hand,  have gotten notably worse at WR despite that rising tide of talent league-wide. 

 

 

Yes. Those 2020 and 2021 Bills WR groups were good enough then. But Brown, Beasley, and Davis are gone, and Diggs is not the same dude. Shakir is a nice complementary piece, Samuel is a great Z/Y addition, and we hope to see Kincaid really take off, but the Bills need another high-end talent who can threaten defenses outside. Whether Diggs is here and healthy or not.   

[iccrewman112]

WR has become a necessary position to fill via the draft for all teams due to cap concerns. Having two 1a and 1b WRs are too expensive via free agency or 2nd and 3rd contracts one needs to be cap friendly rookie deal in my opinion.

[CaptnCoke11]

Can’t go into the draft and say we have to get a first round WR.. Beane is way smarter than that 

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, FireChans said:

Pretty sure a couple of the guys drafted in the first round last year well outproduced Diggs from like week 8 on.

 

 

When only week 8 on count towards wins and losses, that will matter. 

 

Just as reasonable and full of spin to say that he wasn't that productive after the OC who drew up the playbook was replaced by another OC forced to use the original guy's playbook.

 

Diggs was 7th in receptions, 13th in yards and tied for 8th in TDs. 10th in 1st downs. All of those are still very good. Not as good as we're used to from Diggs. But very very good.

 

And again, Josh overthrew an open Diggs on bombs like 6 times last year. 

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

You might be correct.  Unlike this season, the Bills would actually save cap space ($22.75M dead cap vs. $27.85M on roster).  Also unlike this season, Diggs only has $3.5M of his 2025 salary guaranteeing on the new league year, which gives both the Bills and any potential trade partners more leverage negotiating with him.

 

I think it depends upon how he plays and how the receivers we acquire play.  Hopefully the answer is "well" to both, and we trade him off for something reasonable.

 

 

Gunner could indeed be correct here.

 

I'd bet it's a less than 50% bet, myself. Saving $4.9M on the cap in 2025 isn't worth the difference between seeing Diggs play elsewhere vs. Diggs playing here and likely putting up 1000 yards even with a not great year.

[machine gun kelly]

16 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Even if you could find a GM willing to trade you a WR1, if it's an established player, you are talking about a large contract coming in. And then, of course, a shorter shelf life. Diggs was an unusual case, in any event, and the cost was a first round draft choice. Why not spend it on a rookie WR with potential? Maybe you think Minnesota wants to try and repeat the Diggs trade, and send us Justin Jefferson . . . 

Exactly, as some people just can’t seem to fathom we have 11 picks, and very little $.  It’s not our year for a big trade.  After this year, maybe as our cap cleans up well next year.  We purged a lot of the cap hit this year.

[PBF81]

In 7 seasons they should have done something besides merely signing Diggs to begin with.  Same for the OL and the (up until last year) hodgepodge way they've pieces our OL together.  

 

It's become an issue and it's their problem to solve.  Let's see how they do. 

 

It's quite possible that it's the overall methodology that's the issue.

 

Just sayin'.

 

 

[ProcessTruster]

no

[oldmanfan]

This year?  No.  Although I would be surprised if they don’t draft a WR day 1or 2.  They’ll keep Diggs another year or two, then when he and Miller’s cap numbers become manageable they can get a 1 in free agency if they don’t have a guy from the draft that earns it.

[DJB]

Absolutely it’s a priority. Better to get a guy a year too early than a year too late.

 

Its paramount we come out of this draft with a WR at 28

[Sweats]

We're going to have alot of choice for a WR in this draft.

My only issue is that i see people wanting McConkey and i'm saying, hell no to that. I get it, he's a gadget guy and a guy that Beane tends to love for gimmicky schemes, however, we can barely scheme for the guys that we have now......best to get a WR that can stretch the field.

I'm partial to Mitchell, but anyone that can come in and compete for Diggs' spot has my vote.

[Doc]

8 minutes ago, Sweats said:

We're going to have alot of choice for a WR in this draft.

My only issue is that i see people wanting McConkey and i'm saying, hell no to that. I get it, he's a gadget guy and a guy that Beane tends to love for gimmicky schemes, however, we can barely scheme for the guys that we have now......best to get a WR that can stretch the field.

I'm partial to Mitchell, but anyone that can come in and compete for Diggs' spot has my vote.

 

They just got one in Samuel.  No need for another.