Is drafting Diggs replacement a priority in this draft?

[FireChans]

27 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Only nine rookie WR's had more yards than Diggs had last year in NFL history.  None had more receptions.  Expecting a rookie WR to come in and produce at his level is unrealistic.

Pretty sure a couple of the guys drafted in the first round last year well outproduced Diggs from like week 8 on.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, appoo said:

How do you think the Bills got Diggs? There’s enough GMs out there who think you can always find WR1s in the first round, that they don’t wanna pay their current WRs. 
 

I still think stud WRs are well worth paying, and I think you can find them in the trade market and draft. 

 

The Bills got Diggs by giving up a #1 pick, a future draft #4, and taking on a big salary since Diggs had already signed a 5 year, $72M contract extension 2 years before the Bills traded for him.

 

That's the valid point people who argued against the move (especially in hindsight, after the Vikes got Jefferson who turned out to be arguably better): we traded the opportunity to get a good WR on a cost-controlled rookie contract, for getting a vet WR who was the #1 hit on our cap the day we acquired him (before our QB got paid).

[The valid counter-point is that the Bills and Allen benefited by bringing a well-developed route technician into the WR room, to help level-up the other WR and boost Allen's development.  Some truth there]

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Should be job 1

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

 

Listen man, if you're going to come at me with logic and reason, then I just don't know how to talk to you.

 

To your point though, I'm basing this on the eye test as much as anything else.  I don't know how to even look up the stats for average yards in the air prior to completion.  I think Allen's turnovers this year were a big factor in the stats you listed and not being in sync on the few deep balls they tried.  We definitely incorporated more passed out of the backfield.  

 

The best way to look up air yards vs yac I know:

pro-football-reference

pick yer guy (Josh Allen)

scroll down to "Advanced Passing" "Air Yards" tab.

You want CAY/comp (completed air yards per completion) and YAC/comp.

 

What you see there is a bit of a muddled picture, but to the point about deep threat - we can see that between 2021 and 2022 (when I would argue the Bills receiver corps fell off in quality), there was actually an INCREASE in CAY/comp from 6.5 to 7.5 y/a suggesting Josh was going for the deep shot instead of the short and intermediate routes that were Beasley's bread-n-butter.  A full ypa jump is likely significant. 

 

We can see CAY/comp plummeted this past season to 6.1, while YAC rose to its best value since Allen's rookie year - probably on the heels of Kincaid emerging as a reliable short-yardage target with decent YAC, Cook emerging as a short target with significant YAC abilities, and Shakir showing some YAC chops - while Davis and Diggs and Josh just couldn't seem to get on the same page deep.

 

1 hour ago, BillsFan130 said:

Crazy. If what you said is true (which I'm sure it is) , that just shows he wants out.

 

Cause who would turn down cash up front with more security in his contract 

 

I don't think the Bills offered Diggs a restructure with more cash up front for more security later in his contract.

[nedboy7]

Not exactly.  You need to draft best outside WR available and hope they become a #1.  The idea that you can just draft a #1 cause he is in the first round is wishful thinking.  This is why they probably need to draft couple WRs if possible. 

There is no guarantee Allen becomes who he is if they dont get him Diggs early in his career.  The Diggs trade was smart and payed off in the long term. 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

 

 

Either on Twitter or Instagram, someone recommended that Diggs restructure his deal to help the team or facilitate a trade.  Diggs responded personally and said "nope"

 

I looked at his twitter trying to find it and couldn't, but I think it was something like "take a pay cut" or "give back some of your money" or something.

 

Here's the point from a business perspective: the guys on the Bills who did take a pay cut, Von and Knox, were guys whose performance this past season was objectively far below where they were paid, making them poor ROI.  They also had little or no guaranteed salary.  So it made sense to both sides: the team gets some cap relief, the player gets incentives he can "bet on himself" to achieve, and the player gets future guarantees.

 

Diggs, on the other hand, can construct an argument that he's still a top-10 WR in the league and maybe has fallen off a bit from where he's paid, but not much.  And, if he just sat tight, his salary fully guaranteed on the 5th day of the new league year.  So the Bills really don't have a great case, or much leverage, for asking him to take a pay cut.  And, most of his unpalatable cap hit is previous restructures, and money already paid to him as option or restructure bonuses.  He ain't taking money he's already been paid out of his bank account to give to the Bills, and even if the NFLPA allowed this (don't think they do) it would be ridiculous business practice for the Bills to ask an employee to return contracted $$ they've already been paid.

 

I don't think the Bills offered to restructure Diggs salary to bonuses, thus pushing cap hit into their future plans.  They usually, AFAIK, don't need the players' permission for that type of restructure since it doesn't change their yearly renumeration at all. I agree with whoever said it - might have been @GunnerBill, or @BarleyNY - I think the Bills NOT restructuring Diggs salary is a sign his time in B'lo is winding down.  Might be 2025, might be 2026, but they will move on.

Edited March 23 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

8 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

Not exactly.  You need to draft best outside WR available and hope they become a #1.  The idea that you can just draft a #1 cause he is in the first round is wishful thinking.  This is why they probably need to draft couple WRs if possible. 

There is no guarantee Allen becomes who he is if they dont get him Diggs early in his career.  The Diggs trade was smart and payed off in the long term. 

 

Right on.  And here's the thing, they need to be prepared to take a couple of shots on goal to get one in, not necessarily with 2 high draft picks this year, but 1 high and 1 later this year then 1 high and one later next year as well.  We drafted RBs in the 3rd or 2nd round 3 years in a row, after all.

Edited March 23 by Beck Water

[DJB]

1 hour ago, appoo said:

Think you’re hugely undervaluing Diggs here. 

Safeties. Both of them. Neither up to the standard that id like anyways. But I’m sure McDermott can make it work

I think Edwards is fine ….im not the biggest Rapp guy but to me they are the least import position on D

[Doc]

46 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Pretty sure a couple of the guys drafted in the first round last year well outproduced Diggs from like week 8 on.

 

Who?  And does it take into account snaps played?

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I looked at his twitter trying to find it and couldn't, but I think it was something like "take a pay cut" or "give back some of your money" or something.

 

Here's the point from a business perspective: the guys on the Bills who did take a pay cut, Von and Knox, were guys whose performance this past season was objectively far below where they were paid, making them poor ROI.  They also had little or no guaranteed salary.  So it made sense to both sides: the team gets some cap relief, the player gets incentives he can "bet on himself" to achieve, and the player gets future guarantees.

 

Diggs, on the other hand, can construct an argument that he's still a top-10 WR in the league and maybe has fallen off a bit from where he's paid, but not much.  And, if he just sat tight, his salary fully guaranteed on the 5th day of the new league year.  So the Bills really don't have a great case, or much leverage, for asking him to take a pay cut.  And, most of his unpalatable cap hit is previous restructures, and money already paid to him as option or restructure bonuses.  He ain't taking money he's already been paid out of his bank account to give to the Bills, and even if the NFLPA allowed this (don't think they do) it would be ridiculous business practice for the Bills to ask an employee to return contracted $$ they've already been paid.

 

I don't think the Bills offered to restructure Diggs salary to bonuses, thus pushing cap hit into their future plans.  They usually, AFAIK, don't need the players' permission for that type of restructure since it doesn't change their yearly renumeration at all. I agree with whoever said it - might have been @GunnerBill, or @BarleyNY - I think the Bills NOT restructuring Diggs salary is a sign his time in B'lo is winding down.  Might be 2025, might be 2026, but they will move on.

 

Personally unless he is awesome in 2024 I think it is his last year as a Bill.

[Beck Water]

54 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Personally unless he is awesome in 2024 I think it is his last year as a Bill.

 

You might be correct.  Unlike this season, the Bills would actually save cap space ($22.75M dead cap vs. $27.85M on roster).  Also unlike this season, Diggs only has $3.5M of his 2025 salary guaranteeing on the new league year, which gives both the Bills and any potential trade partners more leverage negotiating with him.

 

I think it depends upon how he plays and how the receivers we acquire play.  Hopefully the answer is "well" to both, and we trade him off for something reasonable.

[Big Blitz]

Having a WR 2 that can be WR 1 if he’s hurt has been an issue going on 2 plus years now.  
 

Yes.  Yes it is.  When they get that guy I don’t particularly care.  
 

 

My preference today after the top 3 are gone:

 

1.  Legette

2. Worthy

3. Franklin

4. Mitchell

5. Polk - he needs reevaluating.   
 

 

This will change weekly lol.  

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

You might be correct.  Unlike this season, the Bills would actually save cap space ($22.75M dead cap vs. $27.85M on roster).  Also unlike this season, Diggs only has $3.5M of his 2025 salary guaranteeing on the new league year, which gives both the Bills and any potential trade partners more leverage negotiating with him.

 

I think it depends upon how he plays and how the receivers we acquire play.  Hopefully the answer is "well" to both, and we trade him off for something reasonable.

Spotrac shows cap space savings w trade after 6/1

[BillsFan130]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

The best way to look up air yards vs yac I know:

pro-football-reference

pick yer guy (Josh Allen)

scroll down to "Advanced Passing" "Air Yards" tab.

You want CAY/comp (completed air yards per completion) and YAC/comp.

 

What you see there is a bit of a muddled picture, but to the point about deep threat - we can see that between 2021 and 2022 (when I would argue the Bills receiver corps fell off in quality), there was actually an INCREASE in CAY/comp from 6.5 to 7.5 y/a suggesting Josh was going for the deep shot instead of the short and intermediate routes that were Beasley's bread-n-butter.  A full ypa jump is likely significant. 

 

We can see CAY/comp plummeted this past season to 6.1, while YAC rose to its best value since Allen's rookie year - probably on the heels of Kincaid emerging as a reliable short-yardage target with decent YAC, Cook emerging as a short target with significant YAC abilities, and Shakir showing some YAC chops - while Davis and Diggs and Josh just couldn't seem to get on the same page deep.

 

 

I don't think the Bills offered Diggs a restructure with more cash up front for more security later in his contract.

I don't think so either, there was miscommunication between the OP and I 

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

6 hours ago, Virgil said:

As we get ready for the draft, and I get ready for the TSW Mock Draft staring next weekend, there's been a lot of conversation about needing to draft a wide receiver early.  While I don't disagree with this, I do wonder what type of receiver we are looking for and what impact will they make on the offense.  Before I can make that decision, there's a few things that need to be considered

• Diggs is under contract with a sizeable hit for this year and next.  We could release him next season, but it would incur a 22 mil dead cap hit and only save us 5 million.  Diggs has also gone on record saying that he will not restructure his contract to help the Bills cap space.
• If we bring in a capable number one receiver, how does Diggs handle being the number 2 guy?  Emotional support isn't high on his capacities.
• We are stacked at inside receivers.  Between Shakir, Knox, Kincaid, and Samuel, the slot position is locked up and deep.  
• How do we even utilize a receiver that's not Diggs or a slot?  My biggest criticism of Brady is that I don't feel like he really took advantage of the mismatches we could have created with two Tight Ends and doesn't scheme players open very well.  McVay is a great example of a coach who gets people like Kupp wide open.  Brady doesn't seem to be able to do that
• Was Davis' decline due to his ability or playcalling?  To me, it's a little of both.  Davis had some mental blunders in both routes and drops, but he was a big body speed guy, that on paper, most of us would clamor to draft again.  So even if we get another player like Gabe, will we be able to utilize him?
• Free Agent Wide Receivers in 2025 look rough.  There's isn't a #1 guy that will be available
• Some mock drafts only have 5 wide receivers going in the first round.  If that's the case, there will be some great talent available in round 2 that is more than capable of becoming WR1

 

With all that being said, do we need to prioritize a receiver that can become out WR 1, knowing Diggs is here for the next two years, or do we just need another weapon that can compliment what we have?  Even with Davis being MIA in most games, Josh put up good numbers with who we had.  

 

To me, the secret answer is what Beane did with Samuel.  Samuel is documented to have the 3rd best separation in the NFL on cut routes, something badly needed on this team.  Beane also wanted to bring in Harty for a similar goal.  I think Beane wants quick guys that can create space, that Brandy can use wherever he wants on the field.  

 

So what receiver, if any, needs to be a priority?  A 6'+ receiver who can eventually take over for Diggs in 2 years?  A burner, like Hill, who we can move around in motion a lot to create mismatches from motion?  

 

My answer, and I vomit saying this, is best player available.  If that happens to be a receiver that can lineup outside, then okay.  But if there is a difference maker at another position available or a receiver that is only going to be lumped into our slot guys, then I go with the difference maker at another position.  If this draft is so deep at receiver, I might wait and get someone in the mid rounds with the potential of a #1 guy, and if it doesn't work out, we have two more years to draft the right person.  

 

 

Here are ESPN's rankings of WR's with a grade of 80 or higher.  Only one player is shorter than 6'.  Quite a few of these guys could easily be there in the second round:

• Marvin Harrison - 94 - 6'3"
• Malik Nabers - 93 - 6'
• Rome Odunze - 92 - 6'3"
• Adonai Mitchell - 90 - 6'2"
• Brian Thomas Jr - 90 - 6'3"
• Xavier Legette - 89 - 6'1"
• Ladd McConkey - 88 - 6'
• Xavier Worth - 87 - 5'11"
• Keon Coleman - 87 - 6'3"
• Troy Franklin - 85 - 6'2"
• Devontez Walker - 84 - 6'2"
• Jermaine Burton - 82 - 6'
• Ricky Pearsall - 6'1"

I don't think just clarifying a WR as "Diggs replacement" is a fair assesment, how about more weapons at Josh disposal? It's been Diggs or bust pretty much since we traded for him and it's obviously taken it's toll. Now add Kincaid, Knox back, Diggs, emergence of Shakir, Samuel and now a rookie to take the top off of defenses. We aso all know too well that injuries can easily derail everything, if our offense gets hit with injuries or our defense again maybe we'll need to rely heavily on the offense which we should anyways. I don't think it's wise to think any of these players will be there for us at 60 but these are just my opinions. We've already invested heavily on our DL and I think it's backfired on us... a 1st for groot, 1.9 for Oliver, 2nd round picks on Basham/Epenesa, all these are solid player but so far none have been difference makers especially when we need them in the playoffs. Get Josh as many weapons he needs along the OL and at WR/TE so we just need Josh to outscore opponents. I'm not saying never draft  DL because it hasn't really worked out but I wouldn't this season, this year needs to be soley focused on Allen.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Spotrac shows cap space savings w trade after 6/1

 

This year's savings would depend upon how much of his fully guaranteed salary a trade partner would take on, and it would mean shoving $22M dead cap into next season.  I don't think we want to do that, personally.

 

Whether that would make sense, would depend upon whether the Bills think they can field a competitive offense with whatever rookie and late FA pickups they might make, and what (after the draft) the trade partner is willing to offer.

 

2 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Who?  And does it take into account snaps played?

 

Also "week 8 on", the whole season does actually count.  But to @FireChans, feel free to present your data.

Edited March 24 by Beck Water

[BigAl2526]

I'm a little concerned about Diggs' late season drop in production combined with the fact that both Samuel and Shakir are probably better suited to slot receiver than an X receiver on the outside.  For those reasons, I would kind of like the Bills to end up with a receiver in the first or second round.  The Bills are not going to get a chance at Harrison, Nabers, or Odunze.  Hoping Brian Thomas will drop to 28 is an iffy proposition.  The odds are better for Adonai Mitchell.  He's the guy I'd like to see the Bills get.  I'm not thrilled with Keon Coleman, who is a sloppy route runner.  I'm OK with Ladd McConkey, but he's less than ideal since he's better fit in the slot. I'm wary of Worth being frail.  I wouldn't consider anyone else in the first round.  If I didn't draft WR in round one, I'd jump at Legette or Franklin in round 2.  I'd be OK with Walker or Pearsall too.

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Personally unless he is awesome in 2024 I think it is his last year as a Bill.

Define awesome?

My guess is he has 95 catches for 1050-1100 yards. That would be his worst as a Bill and still one of the top WR seasons in Bills history.  

Would be sad to see him run out of town. Don't care what others think. He is the best most complete WR in franchise history.  

[billsfan89]

I think it’s important to keep the WR room stacked with good young talent while Josh Allen is QB. I would love to see the Bills first two picks be WR/G in either order. 
 

I think the defensive needs that the Bills have can mostly be filled in the mid rounds. Depth at CB and Safety scream 5th round picks while adding to the defensive line rotation can be done with the round 4 selections. 
 

So I think the focus of the top 2 picks being offense is what I would like to see. Of course whose available at what pick is going to make an impact so I wouldn’t be too dissatisfied if they got defensive line help at either pick 28 or 60

[Dr. Who]

7 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:

I'm a little concerned about Diggs' late season drop in production combined with the fact that both Samuel and Shakir are probably better suited to slot receiver than an X receiver on the outside.  For those reasons, I would kind of like the Bills to end up with a receiver in the first or second round.  The Bills are not going to get a chance at Harrison, Nabers, or Odunze.  Hoping Brian Thomas will drop to 28 is an iffy proposition.  The odds are better for Adonai Mitchell.  He's the guy I'd like to see the Bills get.  I'm not thrilled with Keon Coleman, who is a sloppy route runner.  I'm OK with Ladd McConkey, but he's less than ideal since he's better fit in the slot. I'm wary of Worth being frail.  I wouldn't consider anyone else in the first round.  If I didn't draft WR in round one, I'd jump at Legette or Franklin in round 2.  I'd be OK with Walker or Pearsall too.

 

I generally agree with your WR assessments. Thomas will go in the mid to late teens, most likely. You'd have to move up to get him, and the cost would be high. Mitchell might be there, but I think you may have to move up some to secure him as well. I'm pretty sure Legette will be there as late as the early second, but I'm not absolutely certain. He's one of those I think may actually be higher on teams' draft boards than folks surmise.