Is drafting Diggs replacement a priority in this draft?

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, appoo said:

How do you think the Bills got Diggs? There’s enough GMs out there who think you can always find WR1s in the first round, that they don’t wanna pay their current WRs. 
 

I still think stud WRs are well worth paying, and I think you can find them in the trade market and draft. 

I think there's a distinction

 

I would agree top tier elite guys are probably worth paying but that wasn't what Diggs was prior to coming here, he was a borderline top10 guy who blossomed into a legit top5 guy playing in this offense. It was a gamble that paid off but frankly even Diggs hasn't been the piece the Bills have needed to get to Super Bowl...all things considered in hindsight staying put and drafting Jefferson would have been the easy call

 

 

[Virgil]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Their passing game has been in gradual decline for the past 3 seasons.    It's necessitated using Allen like RB2 down the stretch each season.

 

Even if Diggs was still projecting as a top 10 WR in 2024.........and he's not, IMO........WR should still be the top positional priority.

 

I'd argue the only part of the passing game that has declined is the deep ball.  With the addition of our run game this past season, the numbers were bound to go down and they really didn't drop that much.  I'd also argue the lack of deep ball came from the shift in opposing defensive focuses to a cover 2 look.  Most passing teams saw the same decline in deep passes.  

 

Now, to support your comment.  When we did go against Cover 1, we didn't really have the guys who could win off the line and create separation.  

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

In my mind, it is. Not because I expect Diggs to go anywhere anytime soon but for the following:

 

• I don't expect the Bills play/state of the AFC to drop off/surge enough that the Bills will be picking in the teens to low 20s anytime soon. This particular draft looks like one where it might be the only one for the next few years where the Bills are in position to draft someone who projects as one.
• Diggs' greatest strengths have never been elite measurables so much as above average one married to excellent route running and technique. He's been so good at it that he is a true WR1, but teams have devoted gameplan to doing their best to shut him down. He's not Tyreek Hill, where by pure speed he can get outside, or work in the backfield and get 30 yards. The best thing for him is to take pressure off so teams can't shift coverage to his side.
• I did not expect Diggs to go anywhere this offseason, and don't think it's likely that he goes anywhere in 2025, if I am looking down the road in 2026 he will be 33 and costing the Bills $28.5 million in cap space. While the top $'s for WRs is about to explode around then, that's a decent chunk of change to invest in a player on the downside of their career. I'd much prefer an insurance policy in the works.

[Einstein]

We are 2 years past due. Yes.

[appoo]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I think there's a distinction

 

I would agree top tier elite guys are probably worth paying but that wasn't what Diggs was prior to coming here, he was a borderline top10 guy who blossomed into a legit top5 guy playing in this offense. It was a gamble that paid off but frankly even Diggs hasn't been the piece the Bills have needed to get to Super Bowl...all things considered in hindsight staying put and drafting Jefferson would have been the easy call

 

 

Jefferson was the 22nd pick of the draft. 
 

the Vikings purely got lucky 

[blacklabel]

Adding Samuel makes for a decent group. But there are still some question marks.

 

Can Diggs bounce back? Was he hurt, or was the offense in general just not always on the same page? Would having other, more dangerous options that Gabe open things up for Diggs? And then after this year I think his contract becomes more flexible. He's at an age where teams maybe start thinking about moving on. And I'm sure the idea of a solid young WR on a rookie deal is enticing for Beane. 

 

Not all of those guys are gonna go in the first...but would any of them still be on the board when Bills pick at 60 in the second round? Beane has a bunch of mid-round picks he could wheel and deal if he wanted to go BPA in the first and then move around and grab his WR in the second. 

 

Either way, I'm good with whatever direction they go. 

[GoBills808]

Just now, appoo said:

Jefferson was the 22nd pick of the draft. 
 

the Vikings purely got lucky 

Of course they did

 

that's not the point. They could have gotten someone only say 80% as good as Jefferson and they still come out ahead

 

and it's possible that kind of guy will be available this year around where we pick

[Ethan in Cleveland]

WR and edge - doesn't matter which comes first 

No team drafts BPA and certainly Beane does not. Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Epenesa, Rousseau, Elam, and even Kinciad were all positions of absolute need at the time they were drafted.

[Saxum]

Depth in draft is reportedly deep so Bills should look for 2 of them with one having special teams capability  This will help Josh and let each WR be able to get up speed.  I'd emphasis WRs who played in NFL professional style .offenses in college.

[DJB]

We now have no glaring holes heading into the draft.

 

 

Time to trade up for that stud WR

[3rdand12]

59 minutes ago, Virgil said:

As we get ready for the draft, and I get ready for the TSW Mock Draft staring next weekend, there's been a lot of conversation about needing to draft a wide receiver early.  While I don't disagree with this, I do wonder what type of receiver we are looking for and what impact will they make on the offense.  Before I can make that decision, there's a few things that need to be considered

• Diggs is under contract with a sizeable hit for this year and next.  We could release him next season, but it would incur a 22 mil dead cap hit and only save us 5 million.  Diggs has also gone on record saying that he will not restructure his contract to help the Bills cap space.
• If we bring in a capable number one receiver, how does Diggs handle being the number 2 guy?  Emotional support isn't high on his capacities.
• We are stacked at inside receivers.  Between Shakir, Knox, Kincaid, and Samuel, the slot position is locked up and deep.  
• How do we even utilize a receiver that's not Diggs or a slot?  My biggest criticism of Brady is that I don't feel like he really took advantage of the mismatches we could have created with two Tight Ends and doesn't scheme players open very well.  McVay is a great example of a coach who gets people like Kupp wide open.  Brady doesn't seem to be able to do that
• Was Davis' decline due to his ability or playcalling?  To me, it's a little of both.  Davis had some mental blunders in both routes and drops, but he was a big body speed guy, that on paper, most of us would clamor to draft again.  So even if we get another player like Gabe, will we be able to utilize him?
• Free Agent Wide Receivers in 2025 look rough.  There's isn't a #1 guy that will be available
• Some mock drafts only have 5 wide receivers going in the first round.  If that's the case, there will be some great talent available in round 2 that is more than capable of becoming WR1

 

With all that being said, do we need to prioritize a receiver that can become out WR 1, knowing Diggs is here for the next two years, or do we just need another weapon that can compliment what we have?  Even with Davis being MIA in most games, Josh put up good numbers with who we had.  

 

To me, the secret answer is what Beane did with Samuel.  Samuel is documented to have the 3rd best separation in the NFL on cut routes, something badly needed on this team.  Beane also wanted to bring in Harty for a similar goal.  I think Beane wants quick guys that can create space, that Brandy can use wherever he wants on the field.  

 

So what receiver, if any, needs to be a priority?  A 6'+ receiver who can eventually take over for Diggs in 2 years?  A burner, like Hill, who we can move around in motion a lot to create mismatches from motion?  

 

My answer, and I vomit saying this, is best player available.  If that happens to be a receiver that can lineup outside, then okay.  But if there is a difference maker at another position available or a receiver that is only going to be lumped into our slot guys, then I go with the difference maker at another position.  If this draft is so deep at receiver, I might wait and get someone in the mid rounds with the potential of a #1 guy, and if it doesn't work out, we have two more years to draft the right person.  

 

 

Here are ESPN's rankings of WR's with a grade of 80 or higher.  Only one player is shorter than 6'.  Quite a few of these guys could easily be there in the second round:

• Marvin Harrison - 94 - 6'3"
• Malik Nabers - 93 - 6'
• Rome Odunze - 92 - 6'3"
• Adonai Mitchell - 90 - 6'2"
• Brian Thomas Jr - 90 - 6'3"
• Xavier Legette - 89 - 6'1"
• Ladd McConkey - 88 - 6'
• Xavier Worth - 87 - 5'11"
• Keon Coleman - 87 - 6'3"
• Troy Franklin - 85 - 6'2"
• Devontez Walker - 84 - 6'2"
• Jermaine Burton - 82 - 6'
• Ricky Pearsall - 6'1"

Bills need an X receiver.

to start.

 But yea , Bills need to be thinking on gathering a 1A sometime soon

But not a priority this draft.
I am liking Troy Franklin. Might have to fiddle with draft to get that.

 

As always  

 Enjoy your posts very much. Creates great talking points and good informed opinions

 

[3rdand12]

11 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

I'd argue the only part of the passing game that has declined is the deep ball.  With the addition of our run game this past season, the numbers were bound to go down and they really didn't drop that much.  I'd also argue the lack of deep ball came from the shift in opposing defensive focuses to a cover 2 look.  Most passing teams saw the same decline in deep passes.  

 

Now, to support your comment.  When we did go against Cover 1, we didn't really have the guys who could win off the line and create separation.  

need the outside speed. and or ability to separate from one on one and press coverage.

Big ask.

I think Bills have the inside routes covered.

 

BTW  I expect Diggs will have a better year under Brady , having a very good threat from Curtis S

Kincaid and Cook getting balls in the air.

Add another starter ? Takes that pressure off Diggs.

 

 

[Beck Water]

I don't think of it as we need to "draft a Diggs replacement" in this draft per se in this draft, but this may be a matter of semantics.  I 100% believe we need to try to draft the best WR prospect we can get at our draft position or a reasonable maneuver.

 

The way I see it, offenses work better when they have two very good to elite WR.  Davis racked up 200 yds in the 2021 division round because the Chiefs were scared of Diggs and covered him like a blanket.  That proved to be somewhat of a 1-off occurrence rather than a steady diet, and Diggs doesn't elicit the same fear these days.

 

Then of course, there's the ever-present "what if he gets hurt?"  I thought Milano was the "indispensible man" on D, but to their credit the Bills made a combination of Poyer and Dodson work in his stead.  We need to have some option for Diggs - another WR who can step up and be that #1, at least on some of the snaps even if he's platooning with Samuel or Shakir.

 

So I 100% see the need for another good to elite WR to pair with Diggs who will hopefully grow into a #1 role, whether that's next year or 2 years from now.

 

We need to be able to rely on WR help we get in the draft, not signing FA at a very pricy position.

Edited March 23 by Beck Water

[BADOLBILZ]

6 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

I'd argue the only part of the passing game that has declined is the deep ball.  With the addition of our run game this past season, the numbers were bound to go down and they really didn't drop that much.  I'd also argue the lack of deep ball came from the shift in opposing defensive focuses to a cover 2 look.  Most passing teams saw the same decline in deep passes.  

 

Now, to support your comment.  When we did go against Cover 1, we didn't really have the guys who could win off the line and create separation.  

 

What data leads you to that very specific conclusion about "deep" passes being the only decline in their game?    

 

The Bills were 3rd in passing yards and Allen lead the league in completion % in 2020.

 

They have fallen off to between 9th and 11th each year and Allen's completion % and QB ratings have dropped significantly since.

 

Do you NOT recall 2022 in fall?  When Allen tore his arm.......'against the Jets......what a mess.    He was hurling nothing but intermediate and deep throws for much of the season thereafter.  

 

It's not like they've been reduced to a dink and dunk by a decline in the deep ball.    It's been much more than just that.

 

Their WR corps has just declined in quality quite drastically from prime Diggs/Beasley/Brown and Davis as WR4.

 

For much of 2020 they had arguably the most talented WR corps in the NFL and it was cited for helping elevate Allen's game to broadly unexpected heights.

 

A stack of deep WR drafts have followed and caused defense's to adapt to the depth around the league.  The amount of talent in most WR rooms around the league has only grown.    Teams have followed the plan to put big talent around their young QB.   The Bills, on the other hand,  have gotten notably worse at WR despite that rising tide of talent league-wide. 

 

 

 

 

[3rdand12]

7 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

I don't think of it as we need to "draft a Diggs replacement" in this draft per se in this draft, but this may be a matter of semantics.  I 100% believe we need to try to draft the best WR prospect we can get at our draft position or a reasonable maneuver.

 

The way I see it, offenses work better when they have two very good to elite WR.  Davis racked up 200 yds in the 2021 division round because the Chiefs were scared of Diggs and covered him like a blanket.  That proved to be somewhat of a 1-off occurrence rather than a steady diet, and Diggs doesn't elicit the same fear these days.

 

Then of course, there's the ever-present "what if he gets hurt?"  I thought Milano was the "indispensible man" on D, but to their credit the Bills made a combination of Poyer and Dodson work in his stead.  We need to have some option for Diggs - another WR who can step up and be that #1, at least on some of the snaps even if he's platooning with Samuel or Shakir.

 

So I 100% see the need for another good to elite WR to pair with Diggs who will hopefully grow into a #1 role, whether that's next year or 2 years from now.

 

We need to be able to rely on WR help we get in the draft, not signing FA at a very pricy position.

the concept every team wishes for is 2 of 1A type receivers.

Once they have the franchise QB

so yea

We need that

and that DT Sweat , from the draft

[Doc]

Yes.  The Bills will likely be good again and draft late again and this is a good year for WRs.  Get a guy to take over the #1 role at least by next year.

 

 

[appoo]

31 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Of course they did

 

that's not the point. They could have gotten someone only say 80% as good as Jefferson and they still come out ahead

 

and it's possible that kind of guy will be available this year around where we pick

Think you’re hugely undervaluing Diggs here. 

28 minutes ago, DJB said:

We now have no glaring holes heading into the draft.

 

 

Time to trade up for that stud WR

Safeties. Both of them. Neither up to the standard that id like anyways. But I’m sure McDermott can make it work

[Virgil]

8 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

What data leads you to that very specific conclusion about "deep" passes being the only decline in their game?    

 

The Bills were 3rd in passing yards and Allen lead the league in completion % in 2020.

 

They have fallen off to between 9th and 11th each year and Allen's completion % and QB ratings have dropped significantly since.

 

Do you NOT recall 2022 in fall?  When Allen tore his arm.......'against the Jets......what a mess.    He was hurling nothing but intermediate and deep throws for much of the season thereafter.  

 

It's not like they've been reduced to a dink and dunk by a decline in the deep ball.    It's been much more than just that.

 

Their WR corps has just declined in quality quite drastically from prime Diggs/Beasley/Brown and Davis as WR4.

 

For much of 2020 they had arguably the most talented WR corps in the NFL and it was cited for helping elevate Allen's game to broadly unexpected heights.

 

A stack of deep WR drafts have followed and caused defense's to adapt to the depth around the league.  The amount of talent in most WR rooms around the league has only grown.    Teams have followed the plan to put big talent around their young QB.   The Bills, on the other hand,  have gotten notably worse at WR despite that rising tide of talent league-wide. 

 

 

 

 

 

Listen man, if you're going to come at me with logic and reason, then I just don't know how to talk to you.

 

To your point though, I'm basing this on the eye test as much as anything else.  I don't know how to even look up the stats for average yards in the air prior to completion.  I think Allen's turnovers this year were a big factor in the stats you listed and not being in sync on the few deep balls they tried.  We definitely incorporated more passed out of the backfield.  

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, appoo said:

Think you’re hugely undervaluing Diggs here. 

Safeties. Both of them. Neither up to the standard that id like anyways. But I’m sure McDermott can make it work

If anything I'm overvaluing him

 

In this offense, being the 13th most productive wideout in the league on the 5th highest AAV is really bad value compared to a good rookie

[appoo]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

If anything I'm overvaluing him

 

In this offense, being the 13th most productive wideout in the league on the 5th highest AAV is really bad value compared to a good rookie

Where are you getting that number? Diggs has widely been consider a top 5 WR since coming to Buffalo