Is drafting Diggs replacement a priority in this draft?

[Virgil]

As we get ready for the draft, and I get ready for the TSW Mock Draft staring next weekend, there's been a lot of conversation about needing to draft a wide receiver early.  While I don't disagree with this, I do wonder what type of receiver we are looking for and what impact will they make on the offense.  Before I can make that decision, there's a few things that need to be considered

• Diggs is under contract with a sizeable hit for this year and next.  We could release him next season, but it would incur a 22 mil dead cap hit and only save us 5 million.  Diggs has also gone on record saying that he will not restructure his contract to help the Bills cap space.
• If we bring in a capable number one receiver, how does Diggs handle being the number 2 guy?  Emotional support isn't high on his capacities.
• We are stacked at inside receivers.  Between Shakir, Knox, Kincaid, and Samuel, the slot position is locked up and deep.  
• How do we even utilize a receiver that's not Diggs or a slot?  My biggest criticism of Brady is that I don't feel like he really took advantage of the mismatches we could have created with two Tight Ends and doesn't scheme players open very well.  McVay is a great example of a coach who gets people like Kupp wide open.  Brady doesn't seem to be able to do that
• Was Davis' decline due to his ability or playcalling?  To me, it's a little of both.  Davis had some mental blunders in both routes and drops, but he was a big body speed guy, that on paper, most of us would clamor to draft again.  So even if we get another player like Gabe, will we be able to utilize him?
• Free Agent Wide Receivers in 2025 look rough.  There's isn't a #1 guy that will be available
• Some mock drafts only have 5 wide receivers going in the first round.  If that's the case, there will be some great talent available in round 2 that is more than capable of becoming WR1

 

With all that being said, do we need to prioritize a receiver that can become out WR 1, knowing Diggs is here for the next two years, or do we just need another weapon that can compliment what we have?  Even with Davis being MIA in most games, Josh put up good numbers with who we had.  

 

To me, the secret answer is what Beane did with Samuel.  Samuel is documented to have the 3rd best separation in the NFL on cut routes, something badly needed on this team.  Beane also wanted to bring in Harty for a similar goal.  I think Beane wants quick guys that can create space, that Brandy can use wherever he wants on the field.  

 

So what receiver, if any, needs to be a priority?  A 6'+ receiver who can eventually take over for Diggs in 2 years?  A burner, like Hill, who we can move around in motion a lot to create mismatches from motion?  

 

My answer, and I vomit saying this, is best player available.  If that happens to be a receiver that can lineup outside, then okay.  But if there is a difference maker at another position available or a receiver that is only going to be lumped into our slot guys, then I go with the difference maker at another position.  If this draft is so deep at receiver, I might wait and get someone in the mid rounds with the potential of a #1 guy, and if it doesn't work out, we have two more years to draft the right person.  

 

 

Here are ESPN's rankings of WR's with a grade of 80 or higher.  Only one player is shorter than 6'.  Quite a few of these guys could easily be there in the second round:

• Marvin Harrison - 94 - 6'3"
• Malik Nabers - 93 - 6'
• Rome Odunze - 92 - 6'3"
• Adonai Mitchell - 90 - 6'2"
• Brian Thomas Jr - 90 - 6'3"
• Xavier Legette - 89 - 6'1"
• Ladd McConkey - 88 - 6'
• Xavier Worth - 87 - 5'11"
• Keon Coleman - 87 - 6'3"
• Troy Franklin - 85 - 6'2"
• Devontez Walker - 84 - 6'2"
• Jermaine Burton - 82 - 6'
• Ricky Pearsall - 6'1"

Edited April 3 by Virgil

[Donuts and Doritos]

Yes! Josh's in his prime. Get ahead of the Diggs decline & this is the perfect WR draft class to do it.

[FireChans]

100%. Time to be proactive with our draft rather than draft 2 DE’s because we need 2 DE’s 

[SoonerBillsFan]

Yes

[Kirby Jackson]

Yes, but it isn’t so much about “Diggs replacement.” Getting a potential #1 WR, on a rookie deal, regardless of what happens with Diggs, is the top priority. 

[mrags]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Yes, but it isn’t so much about “Diggs replacement.” Getting a potential #1 WR, on a rookie deal, regardless of what happens with Diggs, is the top priority. 

This 100%. I just hope they are thinking the same thing. I have my doubts 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Yes, but it isn’t so much about “Diggs replacement.” Getting a potential #1 WR, on a rookie deal, regardless of what happens with Diggs, is the top priority. 

Yes exactly

 

It's less about replacing/adding players at this point it's about accumulating the most value

[BarleyNY]

25 minutes ago, Virgil said:

As we get ready for the draft, and I get ready for the TSW Mock Draft staring next weekend, there's been a lot of conversation about needing to draft a wide receiver early.  While I don't disagree with this, I do wonder what type of receiver we are looking for and what impact will they make on the offense.  Before I can make that decision, there's a few things that need to be considered

• Diggs is under contract with a sizeable hit for this year and next.  We could release him next season, but it would incur a 22 mil dead cap hit and only save us 5 million.  Diggs has also gone on record saying that he will not restructure his contract to help the Bills cap space.
• If we bring in a capable number one receiver, how does Diggs handle being the number 2 guy?  Emotional support isn't high on his capacities.
• We are stacked at inside receivers.  Between Shakir, Knox, Kincaid, and Samuel, the slot position is locked up and deep.  
• How do we even utilize a receiver that's not Diggs or a slot?  My biggest criticism of Brady is that I don't feel like he really took advantage of the mismatches we could have created with two Tight Ends and doesn't scheme players open very well.  McVay is a great example of a coach who gets people like Kupp wide open.  Brady doesn't seem to be able to do that
• Was Davis' decline due to his ability or playcalling?  To me, it's a little of both.  Davis had some mental blunders in both routes and drops, but he was a big body speed guy, that on paper, most of us would clamor to draft again.  So even if we get another player like Gabe, will we be able to utilize him?
• Free Agent Wide Receivers in 2025 look rough.  There's isn't a #1 guy that will be available

 

With all that being said, do we need to prioritize a receiver that can become out WR 1, knowing Diggs is here for the next two years, or do we just need another weapon that can compliment what we have?  Even with Davis being MIA in most games, Josh put up good numbers with who we had.  

 

To me, the secret answer is what Beane did with Samuel.  Samuel is documented to have the 3rd best separation in the NFL on cut routes, something badly needed on this team.  Beane also wanted to bring in Harty for a similar goal.  I think Beane wants quick guys that can create space, that Brandy can use wherever he wants on the field.  

 

So what receiver, if any, needs to be a priority?  A 6'+ receiver who can eventually take over for Diggs in 2 years?  A burner, like Hill, who we can move around in motion a lot to create mismatches from motion?  

 

My answer, and I vomit saying this, is best player available.  If that happens to be a receiver that can lineup outside, then okay.  But if there is a difference maker at another position available or a receiver that is only going to be lumped into our slot guys, then I go with the difference maker at another position.  If this draft is so deep at receiver, I might wait and get someone in the mid rounds with the potential of a #1 guy, and if it doesn't work out, we have two more years to draft the right person.  

 

I do not think we will see Diggs on the Bills in 2025. I’m very curious to see the direction we go as far as the type of WR they draft. As it stands Samuel is more in the same mold as Diggs. By that I mean a Y/Z receiver. What the Bills really need is do it all X. I will recap the different WR roles below to illustrate my line of thinking. 

 

X - Outside WR who lines up on the LOS. Needs to be a physical player who can get off of press coverage and win deep. A big bonus if they have the agility to win short and intermediate as well. 

 

Y - Slot WR or TE. Agility is key. Need to be able to uncover quickly and work the middle of the field. Effective at short and intermediate routes is mandatory. Ability to get deep (i.e. seam routes) is a big plus. 

 

Z - Outside WR who lines up off of the LOS. Similar to Y except usually lines up on in-line TE side. Is the “move” WR. 

 

So we’re pretty flush with Y and Z types in Diggs, Samuel, Shakir and Kincaid. But we don’t have that X. It is difficult to find an X who can do it all. It’s easier to find a Gabe Davis who can get deep, but isn’t good at uncovering quickly on shorter routes. Obviously if you can find someone who is big, fast and agile you go get that guy. But if you can’t, then what’s your next best option? Another Y/Z type where all of the WRs can share the load of being on the LOS? Or an X limited to deep and intermediate routes? The answer will depend on what Brady’s offensive scheme prioritizes and what Beane can reasonably attain in the draft. The WR we draft will tell us a lot about what the offense is going to look like moving forward. 

[LeGOATski]

26 minutes ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

Yes! Josh's in his prime. Get ahead of the Diggs decline & this is the perfect WR draft class to do it.

I agree. And Josh has never had a monster WR. Give him a guy he can just throw high balls to. We always see guys like Garrett Wilson, Courtland Sutton and the like make big contested catches against the Bills. I'd like the Bills to be able to do that. Paired with Diggs, Samuel, Kincaid, Shakir, that's a versatile receiver group.

[TheBeaneBandit]

Yes x10.

[LABILLBACKER]

Yes, and considering the volume of quality wrs in this draft, we're looking to replace BOTH Diggs and Davis. Samuel is a nice signing but he's more a high end WR3. Shakir being a high end WR4. 

 

And personally I'm tired of worrying about whether Stef's head is in the game anymore. His playoff drop-off these last 2 years speaks volumes. 

Edited March 23 by LABILLBACKER

[appoo]

No. You can also trade for ready made WRs 

[Virgil]

7 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I do not think we will see Diggs on the Bills in 2025. I’m very curious to see the direction we go as far as the type of WR they draft. As it stands Samuel is more in the same mold as Diggs. By that I mean a Y/Z receiver. What the Bills really need is do it all X. I will recap the different WR roles below to illustrate my line of thinking. 

 

X - Outside WR who lines up on the LOS. Needs to be a physical player who can get off of press coverage and win deep. A big bonus if they have the agility to win short and intermediate as well. 

 

Y - Slot WR or TE. Agility is key. Need to be able to uncover quickly and work the middle of the field. Effective at short and intermediate routes is mandatory. Ability to get deep (i.e. seam routes) is a big plus. 

 

Z - Outside WR who lines up off of the LOS. Similar to Y except usually lines up on in-line TE side. Is the “move” WR. 

 

So we’re pretty flush with Y and Z types in Diggs, Samuel, Shakir and Kincaid. But we don’t have that X. It is difficult to find an X who can do it all. It’s easier to find a Gabe Davis who can get deep, but isn’t good at uncovering quickly on shorter routes. Obviously if you can find someone who is big, fast and agile you go get that guy. But if you can’t, then what’s your next best option? Another Y/Z type where all of the WRs can share the load of being on the LOS? Or an X limited to deep and intermediate routes? The answer will depend on what Brady’s offensive scheme prioritizes and what Beane can reasonably attain in the draft. The WR we draft will tell us a lot about what the offense is going to look like moving forward. 

 

Good breakdown.

 

In your opinion, who fits the mold of a X receiver in this draft and how many are there?

Edited March 23 by Virgil

[GunnerBill]

Ideall, sure. Isn't a must. We MUST get at least a guy capable of being a good #2 outside. Ideally we get a guy who by the ene of the season you feel can be your #1. 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, appoo said:

No. You can also trade for ready made WRs 

Not on a rookie contract. If you hit on a WR1 in the first, you have 25 to 30 million to spend somewhere else in roster construction.

And no one is trading you a ready made WR1. 

[BADOLBILZ]

 

Their passing game has been in gradual decline for the past 3 seasons.    It's necessitated using Allen like RB2 down the stretch each season.

 

Even if Diggs was still projecting as a top 10 WR in 2024.........and he's not, IMO........WR should still be the top positional priority.

[appoo]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Not on a rookie contract. If you hit on a WR1 in the first, you have 25 to 30 million to spend somewhere else in roster construction.

And no one is trading you a ready made WR1. 

How do you think the Bills got Diggs? There’s enough GMs out there who think you can always find WR1s in the first round, that they don’t wanna pay their current WRs. 
 

I still think stud WRs are well worth paying, and I think you can find them in the trade market and draft. 

[Southern_Bills]

I think one should be drafted in the first 2 rounds, wherever the value is right.

 

Diggs is in his last year in Buffalo. I think Kincaid, Samuel, Knox and Shakir is a pretty decent lineup even if we miss. Regardless with as rich as this draft is in WR they should definitely try. 2nd rounder this year may be better than the first rounders next year. 

[appoo]

For example, the Seahawks have DK Mercalf in his final yea of a 3 year extension (after this season).  He needs to get extended again. If the Bills offered a 2nd (after this season for next years draft), the Hawks probably take it because not only do they get a pick, but they get out of having to pay DK.

 

Meanwhile the Bills would have a prime Deep threat for 3-4 more years - at a premium price that’s completely worth it 

Edited March 23 by appoo

[Dr. Who]

Just now, appoo said:

How do you think the Bills got Diggs? There’s enough GMs out there who think you can always find WR1s in the first round, that they don’t wanna pay their current WRs. 
 

I still think stud WRs are well worth paying, and I think you can find them in the trade market and draft. 

Even if you could find a GM willing to trade you a WR1, if it's an established player, you are talking about a large contract coming in. And then, of course, a shorter shelf life. Diggs was an unusual case, in any event, and the cost was a first round draft choice. Why not spend it on a rookie WR with potential? Maybe you think Minnesota wants to try and repeat the Diggs trade, and send us Justin Jefferson . . .