The Case for Trading Back [Discussion]

[Toyo321]

If we could leverage a 3rd pick some how by doing this and still stay in the first round and get a WR#1 then I would be good with that.

Edited March 24 by Toyo321

[Mat68]

I would trade down some to pick up a 3rd.  Kinda in a position to take the best remaining player at dline oline or wr.  All the players considering at 28 one will be there 10 picks later. I think they could get aggressive late 2nd and 3rd to target guys they want.  

[SoMAn]

Reading the OP and the statement concerning the DL rotation, it's a reminder that there are no impact players on defense, other than maybe Milano if he's healthy - and that's in question judging from Bean statements during press conference.

Rousseau, Epenesa, and Miller are all average, or even slightly above due to experience.  But they're not players any team is game planning against.

 

The secondary has lost 3 of 5  pro-bowl caliber players in the last 2 years. Oliver is the top D lineman. He can be a force, but not consistently.  

 

As much a I'd love to see the Bills snag a play-making WR, they can use some help on defense. Hopefully, they'll make the most of all these draft picks.

[Rockinon]

13 minutes ago, SoMAn said:

Reading the OP and the statement concerning the DL rotation, it's a reminder that there are no impact players on defense, other than maybe Milano if he's healthy - and that's in question judging from Bean statements during press conference.

Rousseau, Epenesa, and Miller are all average, or even slightly above due to experience.  But they're not players any team is game planning against.

 

The secondary has lost 3 of 5  pro-bowl caliber players in the last 2 years. Oliver is the top D lineman. He can be a force, but not consistently.  

 

As much a I'd love to see the Bills snag a play-making WR, they can use some help on defense. Hopefully, they'll make the most of all these draft picks.

It's a good thing we have 10 picks this year. Defense has the potential to be a complete train wreck if they don't find help. I wonder how much buyers remorse Beane has over the Miller signing. Sure hope he bounces back. They have some key players, but very little depth.

[noacls]

45 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

First, the Bills didn't draft Poyer and Hyde.  

 

More to the point, I'm not saying you can't find useful players, even good ones, in the later rounds.   I'm saying if you have a good roster, and the Bills do, there's a limit to how many of those rookies you can keep.    The Bills are very unlikely to keep several late round picks from this draft.  When they go to your practice squad, they get poached.

 

A first round pick is a high percentage opportunity to get long-term talent on the team.

Lol. Does not change what round they were drafted in.  

Edited March 24 by noacls

[Shaw66]

15 minutes ago, noacls said:

Lol. Does not change what round they were drafted in.  

No, it doesn't, but the point is about how you acquire talent.  Free agency is a much better market for proven young talent.  It's a lot simpler to sign those giluys in free agency than ti draft them.  

 

Well over half the players drafted in the last three rounds in 2018 are out of the league.  Three of the first rounders are gone.   It's a no brainer that the chances of getting a good long-term player are much, much better in the first round, even if you have multiple late round picks.  

Edited March 24 by Shaw66

[KOKBILLS]

If Mitchell and Thomas are gone I prefer the trade back. I think Franklin would be the target in that scenario. 

[ColoradoBills]

Let's take a look at what potential trade partners that Beane might have in trading back into the 2nd round.

 

First, let's talk about Pick #28 worth 660 points.  Trading for a 3rd worth anywhere from 265 (Pick #65) to 3rd round comp Pick #100 (100 points)

gives Beane some room but it all depends on how far back in the 2nd he would want to go.

 

1).  I for one, wouldn't want Beane trading back past Pick #41 (Green Bay 490 points).  If GB wants to move up into the 1st they got a 3rd rounder

at Pick #88 (150 points).  Could do a lower round swap to even the worth.

2).  Carolina has Pick #33 and #39.  They don't have a 1st rounder.  Could be a potential trade partner.

3).  Washington has Pick #36 and #40.  They too could be a trade partner.

4).  Arizona already has 2 1st rounders and Pick #35.  They probably stand put.

5).  Doubt Beane trades with NE at Pick #34.

6).  LA Chargers have Pick #37 but their 3rd is too high to trade with the Bills.

7).  The last of that early 2nd round teams in the TEN Titans.  They are low on pick and don't have a 3rd rounder.

 

The way I see it, Carolina, Washington and Green Bay are pretty good potential trade partners.

Of these 3, Washington may well want to get back into the 1st and make a splash Day 1.  They seem to have the right picks for the

Bills to get either Pick 100 (worth 100 points) or Pick #78 (worth 200 points).  Washington does not have a 4th rounder.

 

TRADE:  Bills #28 (660 points AND Pick #133 (39.5 points) 699.5 POINTS TOTAL

for Washington Pick #40 (500 points) AND Pick #78 (200 points) 700 POINTS TOTAL

 

OR

 

TRADE:  Bills #28 (660 points) for Washington Pick #36 (540 points) AND Pick #100 (100 points).

I like this trade very much!

 

Depending on Beane's board, it's a possibility.

 

[gonzo1105]

2 hours ago, Toyo321 said:

If we could leverage a 3rd pick some how by doing this and still stay in the first round and get a WR#1 then I would be good with that.

 

If you want to trade back and get a 3rd rounder you probably have to move down to about 43 without giving up much of anything back. I would think you would be able to get a quality guy at 43 but is it the guy you covet esp at WR.

 

I think its more likely that the Bills make a smaller move down into the 30's grab an extra 4th rounder and then use 2 of those 3 4th rounders to move up into the 3rd round.

[3rdand12]

On 3/23/2024 at 11:16 AM, mrags said:

I’m also for trading back if the guys you’re looking for are already gone. That’s Thomas, Mitchell, Franklin, JPJ. Honestly those are the only guys I would take at 28. Regardless whether we have a need or really don’t this year. Those guy would be future #1s at their positions on this team moving forward. I haven’t looked at many positions outside of WR, S, DT and a little at C for us in this draft. I think these are the 4 needs we have. I don’t think any DT is worth rd 1 except maybe Sweat just because I think he’ll be the best DL  in the draft, but I also don’t think you need to take him at 28. So if the 3 WRs and the one C that are actually worth a first rd grade are fine, I’d absolutely trade back for an extra 3rd or 4th and hopefully nab Sweat in the early to mid 2nd. Using the other 2nd with maybe a trade up for WR. Which Franklin SHOULD be available round there. But I get that WR is such a need that if he’s your guy and you take him at 28 I’m perfectly fine with it. 

And there we have it.

Exactly

Get Franklin and Sweat and you just killed the draft. Destroyed it. Need and BPA if you align the picks correctly. I would even sacrifice a bit for nailing those two down

Sure you are being practical as well. And thats a fair viewpoint

But you get those two and find some gems at safety and 3 tech later on. its a huge win

 Next generation WR is a need for Allen

 

[mrags]

6 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

And there we have it.

Exactly

Get Franklin and Sweat and you just killed the draft. Destroyed it. Need and BPA if you align the picks correctly. I would even sacrifice a bit for nailing those two down

Sure you are being practical as well. And thats a fair viewpoint

But you get those two and find some gems at safety and 3 tech later on. its a huge win

 Next generation WR is a need for Allen

 

Agree 100%. I Wouldn’t care what useless bodies we get at any other positions. If you get one of those 3 WRs and Sweat you won the draft imo. 

[3rdand12]

On 3/23/2024 at 12:36 PM, Don Otreply said:

We are doomed!!!

 

 

 

 

 

🤣

always and forever

its the burial site thing.

[Matt_In_NH]

I am good with trading back with the first if the right people are not there and potentially using 4's and 5's to move up into the third.   The moving around totally depends on what guys are there or not there at the time.   Also, that is per their evaluation, not internet research.   I think if the Bills get 8-9 roster-able players that would be ideal although very different than recent history.

[hondo in seattle]

Obviously, it depends on need, players available, and so on...  But I generally like trading back.

 

Talent evaluation is an imperfect science.  There's no certainty in the draft.  It's a crap shoot.  So the more rolls of the dice, the better your chances of getting someone good.  

[turftoe]

The last time the bills made a big trade down in the first round, they gave away Patrick Mahomes.

[Chicken Boo]

On 3/23/2024 at 11:18 AM, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

No needs on the roster? That's a rosy outlook. TE is set. WR is severely undermanned. RB is ok, QB is above average, OL IS THIN. DL isn't great, LB is ok, CB is good but lacks depth, safety is a tire fire.

 

Despite the reactions, you're not wrong.

 

Some are happy just getting to the playoffs or winning the division.  Then there are those of us who want nothing less than to win the Super Bowl.  

Edited March 24 by Chicken Boo

[Meatloaf63]

On 3/23/2024 at 10:48 AM, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

To get this out of the way: this isn't me claiming that I have any special juice about what's going in the war room. It also isn't an absolute path. If a player who has been forecasted in the top 10-15 is there for the taking in the 20s, I am even for a (reasonable) trade up. If Jared Verse, Brian Thomas or Adonai Mitchell (make your pick of who you think WR4 in the draft is) or whoever you think is an instant game wrecker, you take them.

 

However, as is often the case, I am seeing a bit of a glut around pick 20 on most mocks and Big Boards where plays transition from Week 1 Gamechanger to Week 1 Effective Starter. The truth is, with Beane at work, I don't think that there are any massive glaring immediate needs on the roster: Curtis Samuel can play outside enough that it's not critically dire. Epenesa, Groot and Miller are (in theory) a recent starting DE rotation. They have plenty of depth at LB, have theoretical starters in the secondary, the O-line is mostly intact, RB room is pretty full, and TE doesn't need more reinforcement.

 

Basically, while I think there are several places where the Bills could upgrade, there is at least a theoretical veteran that a rookie would need to take the job from. However, a lot of those contracts are short term, set to expire by 2026 and the team is already over the cap for 2025. If we can't get a gamewrecker, would we say no to another 3rd or 4th round pick if Beane lets someone trade in from the back end?

We have enough overpaid mid vanilla players. We need a couple difference makers. Trade up, use next years draft whatever, however. Enough of wasting Allen’s years…

[nedboy7]

9 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Despite the reactions, you're not wrong.

 

Some are happy just getting to the playoffs or winning the division.  Then there are those of us who want nothing less than to win the Super Bowl.  

I assume there is no difference to watching a lottery draft season vs a playoff run season then?  This argument is so mindless. 

[billybrew1]

On 3/23/2024 at 8:18 AM, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

No needs on the roster? That's a rosy outlook. TE is set. WR is severely undermanned. RB is ok, QB is above average, OL IS THIN. DL isn't great, LB is ok, CB is good but lacks depth, safety is a tire fire.

RB is not OK, we have one NFL back and he is best when splitting snaps… and we need a sixth LB as well…

Otherwise I agree with you….

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Despite the reactions, you're not wrong.

 

Some are happy just getting to the playoffs or winning the division.  Then there are those of us who want nothing less than to win the Super Bowl.  

I know. I look at this roster and I don't see the team beating Cincinnati, Kansas City or even Houston in a one and done scenario.