The Case for Trading Back [Discussion]

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

To get this out of the way: this isn't me claiming that I have any special juice about what's going in the war room. It also isn't an absolute path. If a player who has been forecasted in the top 10-15 is there for the taking in the 20s, I am even for a (reasonable) trade up. If Jared Verse, Brian Thomas or Adonai Mitchell (make your pick of who you think WR4 in the draft is) or whoever you think is an instant game wrecker, you take them.

 

However, as is often the case, I am seeing a bit of a glut around pick 20 on most mocks and Big Boards where plays transition from Week 1 Gamechanger to Week 1 Effective Starter. The truth is, with Beane at work, I don't think that there are any massive glaring immediate needs on the roster: Curtis Samuel can play outside enough that it's not critically dire. Epenesa, Groot and Miller are (in theory) a recent starting DE rotation. They have plenty of depth at LB, have theoretical starters in the secondary, the O-line is mostly intact, RB room is pretty full, and TE doesn't need more reinforcement.

 

Basically, while I think there are several places where the Bills could upgrade, there is at least a theoretical veteran that a rookie would need to take the job from. However, a lot of those contracts are short term, set to expire by 2026 and the team is already over the cap for 2025. If we can't get a gamewrecker, would we say no to another 3rd or 4th round pick if Beane lets someone trade in from the back end?

[SoonerBillsFan]

Depending on who is there at 28, and how far back we would be trading, I would do it.

[Bill from NYC]

5 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

If we can't get a gamewrecker, would we say no to another 3rd or 4th round pick if Beane lets someone trade in from the back end?

Well, I disagree about WR not being a "dire need." And in terms of losing #28 for just another 3rd or 4th, I would say no way. The last thing that I want is for the Bills to get stiffed again as they did in the Mahomes pick for Tre White fiasco, and I don't trust McDermott not to repeat something this ill advised, or shall I say stupid.

 

Now, If a team wanted to give us a 1st and a 2nd or 3rd in 25 and a 3rd this season, I would at least consider it. What I don't want is for McDermott to make another stupid trade up to get yet another defensive player.

 

 

 

 

 

[BuffaloRebound]

18 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

To get this out of the way: this isn't me claiming that I have any special juice about what's going in the war room. It also isn't an absolute path. If a player who has been forecasted in the top 10-15 is there for the taking in the 20s, I am even for a (reasonable) trade up. If Jared Verse, Brian Thomas or Adonai Mitchell (make your pick of who you think WR4 in the draft is) or whoever you think is an instant game wrecker, you take them.

 

However, as is often the case, I am seeing a bit of a glut around pick 20 on most mocks and Big Boards where plays transition from Week 1 Gamechanger to Week 1 Effective Starter. The truth is, with Beane at work, I don't think that there are any massive glaring immediate needs on the roster: Curtis Samuel can play outside enough that it's not critically dire. Epenesa, Groot and Miller are (in theory) a recent starting DE rotation. They have plenty of depth at LB, have theoretical starters in the secondary, the O-line is mostly intact, RB room is pretty full, and TE doesn't need more reinforcement.

 

Basically, while I think there are several places where the Bills could upgrade, there is at least a theoretical veteran that a rookie would need to take the job from. However, a lot of those contracts are short term, set to expire by 2026 and the team is already over the cap for 2025. If we can't get a gamewrecker, would we say no to another 3rd or 4th round pick if Beane lets someone trade in from the back end?

This is kinda making the case for trading up more than back.  Beane has nicely re-tooled the roster depth.  Now we need difference makers and starters along the lines of the Kincaid and Torrence picks.  We have enough 4th, 5th, and 6th rounders to take a shot on some diamonds in the rough.  Trade up in 1st with one of our 4th’s for brst D-Lineman and WR then do same in 2nd round with our other 4th or a 3rd next year.  

[mrags]

9 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Depending on who is there at 28, and how far back we would be trading, I would do it.

I’m also for trading back if the guys you’re looking for are already gone. That’s Thomas, Mitchell, Franklin, JPJ. Honestly those are the only guys I would take at 28. Regardless whether we have a need or really don’t this year. Those guy would be future #1s at their positions on this team moving forward. I haven’t looked at many positions outside of WR, S, DT and a little at C for us in this draft. I think these are the 4 needs we have. I don’t think any DT is worth rd 1 except maybe Sweat just because I think he’ll be the best DL  in the draft, but I also don’t think you need to take him at 28. So if the 3 WRs and the one C that are actually worth a first rd grade are fine, I’d absolutely trade back for an extra 3rd or 4th and hopefully nab Sweat in the early to mid 2nd. Using the other 2nd with maybe a trade up for WR. Which Franklin SHOULD be available round there. But I get that WR is such a need that if he’s your guy and you take him at 28 I’m perfectly fine with it. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

27 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

To get this out of the way: this isn't me claiming that I have any special juice about what's going in the war room. It also isn't an absolute path. If a player who has been forecasted in the top 10-15 is there for the taking in the 20s, I am even for a (reasonable) trade up. If Jared Verse, Brian Thomas or Adonai Mitchell (make your pick of who you think WR4 in the draft is) or whoever you think is an instant game wrecker, you take them.

 

However, as is often the case, I am seeing a bit of a glut around pick 20 on most mocks and Big Boards where plays transition from Week 1 Gamechanger to Week 1 Effective Starter. The truth is, with Beane at work, I don't think that there are any massive glaring immediate needs on the roster: Curtis Samuel can play outside enough that it's not critically dire. Epenesa, Groot and Miller are (in theory) a recent starting DE rotation. They have plenty of depth at LB, have theoretical starters in the secondary, the O-line is mostly intact, RB room is pretty full, and TE doesn't need more reinforcement.

 

Basically, while I think there are several places where the Bills could upgrade, there is at least a theoretical veteran that a rookie would need to take the job from. However, a lot of those contracts are short term, set to expire by 2026 and the team is already over the cap for 2025. If we can't get a gamewrecker, would we say no to another 3rd or 4th round pick if Beane lets someone trade in from the back end?

No needs on the roster? That's a rosy outlook. TE is set. WR is severely undermanned. RB is ok, QB is above average, OL IS THIN. DL isn't great, LB is ok, CB is good but lacks depth, safety is a tire fire.

[mrags]

10 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Well, I disagree about WR not being a "dire need." And in terms of losing #28 for just another 3rd or 4th, I would say no way. The last thing that I want is for the Bills to get stiffed again as they did in the Mahomes pick for Tre White fiasco, and I don't trust McDermott not to repeat something this ill advised, or shall I say stupid.

 

Now, If a team wanted to give us a 1st and a 2nd or 3rd in 25 and a 3rd this season, I would at least consider it. What I don't want is for McDermott to make another stupid trade up to get yet another defensive player.

 

 

 

 

 

I really think you should prepare yourself for the possibility that McD will absolutely take another Defensive player. After all his defense was gutted in the offseason. They filled the whole at WR with Samuel and in their minds that useless Hollins. I’m with you, I absolutely think drafting a WR to not be your #2 but be your #1 as early as next year is a huge need. However I am just not sure they feel the same way. 

[Gugny]

WR1 is absolutely a dire need. 
 

WR2 has been a dire need for years and ignored. 
 

Now Diggs is approaching WR2 status and the WR room is still lacking a true WR1. 
 

I like Beane … but his refusal to address the WR position has been painfully consistent. 
 

 

Edited March 23 by Gugny

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, Gugny said:

WR1 is absolutely a dire need. 
 

WR2 has been a dire need for years and ignored. 
 

Now Diggs is approaching WR2 status and the WR is still lacking a true WR1. 
 

I like Beane … but his refusal to address the WR room has been painfully consistent. 

I too think Diggs is done. He was invisible the final third of the season and the postseason 

[SoonerBillsFan]

6 minutes ago, mrags said:

I’m also for trading back if the guys you’re looking for are already gone. That’s Thomas, Mitchell, Franklin, JPJ. Honestly those are the only guys I would take at 28. Regardless whether we have a need or really don’t this year. Those guy would be future #1s at their positions on this team moving forward. I haven’t looked at many positions outside of WR, S, DT and a little at C for us in this draft. I think these are the 4 needs we have. I don’t think any DT is worth rd 1 except maybe Sweat just because I think he’ll be the best DL  in the draft, but I also don’t think you need to take him at 28. So if the 3 WRs and the one C that are actually worth a first rd grade are fine, I’d absolutely trade back for an extra 3rd or 4th and hopefully nab Sweat in the early to mid 2nd. Using the other 2nd with maybe a trade up for WR. Which Franklin SHOULD be available round there. But I get that WR is such a need that if he’s your guy and you take him at 28 I’m perfectly fine with it. 

You and I are in total agreement.  I would trade back a few spots and take sweat and gain a 3rd.  Trade one of our 4ths to move up in the 2nd for WR.  

[nedboy7]

How did trading back turn into self loathing loser talk within 4 posts. 
our QB is above avg? 
Diggs is a WR3 now? 
we have no WRs?  
Our SB winning safety is a tire fire?

LB corp is ok? 
insane takes. 
If you can’t enjoy this version of the Bills thats on you.  

[nosejob]

44 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

To get this out of the way: this isn't me claiming that I have any special juice about what's going in the war room. It also isn't an absolute path. If a player who has been forecasted in the top 10-15 is there for the taking in the 20s, I am even for a (reasonable) trade up. If Jared Verse, Brian Thomas or Adonai Mitchell (make your pick of who you think WR4 in the draft is) or whoever you think is an instant game wrecker, you take them.

 

However, as is often the case, I am seeing a bit of a glut around pick 20 on most mocks and Big Boards where plays transition from Week 1 Gamechanger to Week 1 Effective Starter. The truth is, with Beane at work, I don't think that there are any massive glaring immediate needs on the roster: Curtis Samuel can play outside enough that it's not critically dire. Epenesa, Groot and Miller are (in theory) a recent starting DE rotation. They have plenty of depth at LB, have theoretical starters in the secondary, the O-line is mostly intact, RB room is pretty full, and TE doesn't need more reinforcement.

 

Basically, while I think there are several places where the Bills could upgrade, there is at least a theoretical veteran that a rookie would need to take the job from. However, a lot of those contracts are short term, set to expire by 2026 and the team is already over the cap for 2025. If we can't get a gamewrecker, would we say no to another 3rd or 4th round pick if Beane lets someone trade in from the back end?

Some mocks have us trading to 26 (for a 4th) and getting Latu. NFL.com pro comparison...T.J.Watt.  We need that and it could be a HR....for years.

 

2023: Won the Lombardi Award (nation's top college OL/DL) and Ted Hendricks Award (nation's top DE). First-team Associated Press All-American. Pac-12 Conference Defensive Player of the Year. First-Team All-Pac-12 Conference. Finalist for the Chuck Bednarik Defensive Player of the Year Award and the Lott IMPACT Award (Integrity, Maturity, Performance, Academics, Community, Tenacity). Led the FBS with 21.5 TFL, tied for fourth with 13.0 sacks. Started 12 games (49 tackles, 2 INTs, 2 PBUs, 2 FFs).

[GASabresIUFan]

While I disagree with much of the OP, there is definitely a case for trading down.  The Bills are in desperate need of youth and cheap talent.  
 

The only place to get young cheap talent is in the draft.  Right now we only have two picks in the top 100.  We need at least 3-4 picks in the top 100 to help replenish this roster longterm.

 

We also have a myriad of needs that need to be filled.  
1. We don’t have any WRs who stretch the field 

2. We need a future starter and better depth at safety.  
3. We need a replacement for Miller

4. We need DT depth 

5. We need a 3rd RB

6. We need a longterm replacement for Douglas at CB

7. We may need a replacement for Brown at OT and Van Denmark isn’t adequate depth 

Remember McD doesn’t like starting rookies. He likes to rotate them in to gain experience.  The Douglas, Miller and Safety starter replacements should all come from this draft. 
 

My hope is Mitchell falls to us at 28.  He gives speed, size and big play ability. (5 TDs in 5 CFP games in college). If not then trade down with Det, SF or Balt to get extra assets.  Use these new assets plus our other 10 picks to maneuver back into the third round.  
 

I’m hoping for 6 roster players from this draft.

[OldTimer1960]

I think that if a trade down is considered, it will be because they have multiple guys that they like, but not love, at key positions available to them.  I’ve come around on Mitchell enough to nab him if he is available, but after him I don’t know that there will be a player that I really have enough conviction on to say no to a fair trade down proposal.

 

At WR, Legette is a possibility, but we clearly seem higher on him than most.  I don’t personally think that Franklin is so good that I couldn’t pass on him, Worthy is too small for my tastes and I don’t think Coleman is worth that pick.  Could 1 or more of these guys be great?  Sure, but any of them could be just OK or worse.

 

Newton and Murphy are good enough to take there, but they do duplicate Oliver’s skill set a bit too much.  Could you play Oliver and one of them on passing downs?  Yep, but that front likely struggles against the run.

 

Latu has injury concerns and Chop Robinson has production concerns.

 

The question is, who would be interested in trading into that spot, how far would you have to go down and what would you get in return?  I do think if they moved back 10 or 15 spots, they could still have at least 1 of Legette, Worthy, Franklin and McConkey left.  I know that not all are the X guy that they ideally seem to need, but those are all still good WR prospects that could help the team.

[QLBillsFan]

This is the year to trade back. The late first round value at wr and dl can be had in the second. Use other pics to move up later giving the Bills 3 players in the top 100. Then 5-6  from 140-200. This allows  for a very good WR like Legette and 3 DL along with 2 S’s and OL depth.  

[SoonerBillsFan]

47 minutes ago, nosejob said:

Some mocks have us trading to 26 (for a 4th) and getting Latu. NFL.com pro comparison...T.J.Watt.  We need that and it could be a HR....for years.

 

2023: Won the Lombardi Award (nation's top college OL/DL) and Ted Hendricks Award (nation's top DE). First-team Associated Press All-American. Pac-12 Conference Defensive Player of the Year. First-Team All-Pac-12 Conference. Finalist for the Chuck Bednarik Defensive Player of the Year Award and the Lott IMPACT Award (Integrity, Maturity, Performance, Academics, Community, Tenacity). Led the FBS with 21.5 TFL, tied for fourth with 13.0 sacks. Started 12 games (49 tackles, 2 INTs, 2 PBUs, 2 FFs).

I read something about a possible injury history?

[freddyjj]

1 minute ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I read something about a possible injury history?

Yes he had a neck injury prior to transfer to UCLA.  The Leighton Vander Esch saga gives me some trepidation here.  

[Nephilim17]

If, for example, they love Legette, and they're confident they can get him (and KC won't) by trading back a handful of spots, OK.

But I wouldn't get cute if they really like a guy and he's available at 28. If they don't really like a guy, sure.

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

No needs on the roster? That's a rosy outlook. TE is set. WR is severely undermanned. RB is ok, QB is above average, OL IS THIN. DL isn't great, LB is ok, CB is good but lacks depth, safety is a tire fire.

We are doomed!!!

 

 

 

 

 

🤣

[nosejob]

7 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Yes he had a neck injury prior to transfer to UCLA.  The Leighton Vander Esch saga gives me some trepidation here.  

Hopefully that's why he slides within a couple of picks. 2021 missed due to neck injury and couldn't get cleared for 22. Went to UCLA and crushed it for 2 yrs.

This guy is gonna be on the ESPN a ton this year. That whole line is gonna get nasty. We need to establish a very good young core on the Dline this year!