Anyone else feeling pretty good with the Bills?

[NastyNateSoldiers]

On 3/23/2024 at 1:40 AM, SoonerBillsFan said:

Heading into the draft, I feel pretty good about the Bills.  The only thing lacking is a pash rush from the front 4.  I am concerned Groot has had a couple seasons now and needs to step up and be a 10+ sack guy.  I don't like depending so much on Von. Other than that I feel all the other positions are solid. 

 

Depending on who is there at 28, I am tempted to move down, possibly with Carolina who may want to move back into the 1st. Possibly Washington as well to get a 3rd round pick.   Maybe use a 4th and 5th( or 6th) to move up in the 2nd.

 

WR is still #1 on my list followed by DL.  Safety in the 4th, along with just BPA from there on out.

 

How are you guys feeling about a month out from the draft?

I'm always gonna feel at least pretty good about the Bills as long as Josh is playing at a high level. If you asking me otherwise I'm not a big fan of the off-season just seems like more of the same type of moves this team usually makes. Kicking the can down the road cap wise for middling talent is not a good recipe for success for now or the future of this team. 

[SoTier]

17 hours ago, PauleeeWalnuts said:

Feeling indifferent. They haven’t done anything that would indicate they will take the next step and get over the hump next season. Another Divisional Round loss is probable, maybe even a Wild Card knockout. Can’t beat Burrow or Mahomes when it counts and they didn’t get any better this offseason. 

 

What exactly does "take the next step" look like to you?    Fire the coaching staff?   Sign some big name defensive or offensive player(s)?    Trade all their draft picks to move up to #4 or #5 in the draft to take Marvin Harrison, Jr????    Instead of just whining, actually make some suggestions.

 

Realistically, Beane had/has limited options in significantly improving the team because of the cap.  Every team paying a franchise QB shares those limitations to varying degrees.   They are going to lose some good players every season, and they're not going to be able to sign many big name talents in their stead.  It's a balancing act and a hope that all goes well.    The Chiefs, for example, chose to resign Chris Jones and trade away L'Jarius Sneed for very little compensation.  It looks like a reasonable move now but what if Jones suffers a season-ending injury in September, and the Chiefs' D struggles to stop teams, especially in the red zone?  

 

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I’d give Beane a solid B for this off-season so far.

 

He was facing a huge uphill battle to get under the cap (a problem of his own making).  However, with a little help from the NFL, Miller and Knox he managed to get the job done with minimal damage to the starting group.

 

With the retention of Jones and Epenesa, Beane brings back 17 of 22 starters on O & D. On offense starts Morse and Davis depart and on defense Hyde, Poyer and Floyd depart, but Floyd is replaced by Espenesa.

 

Reviewing the major areas of change: 

 

OL - Out with Morse and Bates.  In with the Clapp.  McGovern moves to center and Edwards moves to from back up guard to starter.  The line was a major strength last year and could be again if McGovern can replace Morse effectively.  
 

WR - Out with Davis, Harry and Sherfield.  In with Hollins and Samuel.   Samuel and Hollins are upgrades over Harty and Sherfield, but neither stretches the field nor are they a replacement for Davis.  Samuel is a slot receiver whose numbers, such as Yards/catch, catch%, YAC/catch, and explosive plays, are all inferior to the slot  receiver we already have in Shakir.  When they draft a boundary receiver, Samuel will ultimately be relegated to our 5th best receiving option.  Not sure spending $8 million on the 5th option is a wise cap decision.  That said this group is deeper and more talented than last year.

 

D Line - Out - Floyd, Settle, Ford, Phillips and Lawson.  In - Johnson and Toohill.  Obviously, we are still down a few players and this is where the biggest questions lie.  Can Miller, Epenesa or a draft pick step-up to replace the loss of Floyd? Can Jones stay healthy? If the answers are yes, then the line will be fine.  I’m also interested to see what Jonathan can do.

 

Safety - Out with Hyde (?) and Poyer. In with Edwards. Rapp becomes a starter.  Going from aging stars Poyer and Hyde to Rapp and Edwards is a downgrade.  Beane says he’s open to Hyde returning.  I’d be happier with a stud early in the draft like Bullard, Bullock, Kinchens, or Hicks.  Beane needs to invest here finally.  
 

Overall the two lines and the safeties have been downgraded on paper this off-season, but I’m not overly concerned about the lines.  The safeties do concern me. Edwards and Rapp only played 50% of their team’s snaps last season for a reason.  Each guy only started because of injuries and neither graded out all that well. PFF graded both at 56.5 & 56.4 respectively.

 

Only the WR group has been upgraded, but not in the area of greatest need.  

The bottomline is with the starters mostly intact, the team will be very good assuming they stay healthy.  The offense should be more dynamic with Samuel and assuming they draft a deep threat.  Hopefully Miller, Epenesa and Jonathan step up on the D line to actually make it as effective as last year and that McGovern plays as well as Morse did to anchor the OLine.

 

Excellent post.  I like posters who provide some reasons for their stands rather than simply complaining or praising.    

 

Depending upon how the draft falls out, I would not be opposed to the Bills taking one of the two centers projected as first rounders at #28 or even higher if they feel they need to move up to get one, but I'm always in favor of BPA because the Bills need difference makers not just "good" players in order to improve.  A lights-out C can help Allen more than a "pretty good" outside WR who probably can be had in the 2nd round in this deep WR draft.  If one of the highly rated defensive players falls or the Bills move up to get one, I'm good with that, too. 

 

I think Beane has filled the gaping holes in FA with an eye to drafting BPA in the first round in order to get a potential stud regardless of positon. 

[Mat68]

I see Davis as the offensive loss equivalent to the departure of Edmunds on defense.  Davis was a starter the last 2 seasons had very good games but also was what he was and played a certain way.  A way the defense knew how to stop or contain.  Samuel offers diversity in attack.  Has the speed to run past coverage while also experience running routes and receiving handoffs out of the backfield.  Samuel makes the offense harder to defend and excels at beating man.  Buffalo has struggled to beat man if Diggs is taken away. 

[Behindenemylines]

18 hours ago, PauleeeWalnuts said:

Feeling indifferent. They haven’t done anything that would indicate they will take the next step and get over the hump next season. Another Divisional Round loss is probable, maybe even a Wild Card knockout. Can’t beat Burrow or Mahomes when it counts and they didn’t get any better this offseason. 

Thank you for laying out a solid strategy to get us over this “hump” and for your thoughts on the draft and future offensive play calling. Your plan for upgrading the O and D lines were well thought out and concise

 

Of particular note was your diet and exercise regimen for Allen and how properly used will increase his completion percentage. 

thank you for the education 

🤔

[PBF81]

6 hours ago, BananaB said:

A lot of people weren’t happy with the Harty sign. Samuel has proven he is consistent player in this league where Harty had one solid season. To be honest I think your biggest problem in this chat is you think the O is gonna be similar to Daboll and Dorsey, it’s not. Davis disappeared when McD made the change at OC, so looking for a guy to fill his roll the way he was used previously might not be needed. 

 

More than not were quite happy with the Garty signing, but let's not leapfrog the point.  The talk here was largely as to why he'd contribute, similarly to the talk about Samuel now. 

 

I know, I did the opposite and took a trash for it.  The overhype re: our signings is an annual occurrence.

 

Otherwise, thanks for letting me know what I think, but unfortunately that wouldn't be correct.  😏

 

You make a good point about it however, but that's a more advanced and more complex discussion. 

 

 

[GASabresIUFan]

26 minutes ago, SoTier said:

'm always in favor of BPA because the Bills need difference makers not just "good" players in order to improve. 

One of my takeaways from the off-season so far is that Beane does not want to hand a starting job to any rookie.   He has brought in enough depth that he can afford to do BPA on his draft board even in the 1st rd.  It's hard to ignore that Beane has never drafted a WR in the 1st 3 rounds (Davis was the highest and in the 4th rd) and he has actually never drafted a safety at all.  He has drafted many CB's, some of which were converted to safeties (like Hamlin), but never any guys designated as safeties in their draft year according to pro-football reference. I should also be noted the only DB (S or CB) drafted above the 4th round was Elam.  

 

For example:  We all think (hope, want, expect?) Beane to draft a WR in the 1st round.  Personally, I'd love to see any of Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy, Franklin, or Thomas.  However, Beane has built in flexibility here.  He currently has 5 WRs on the books and only carried 5 last year.  Here is a scenario if he doesn't even draft a WR.  Diggs is 1, Shakir moves the boundary as the 2, Samuel is the slot, and Hollins and Shorter become the "big" receivers.  Maybe Hamler also makes the team as a kick returned and deep threat. 

 

This scenario occurred to me when compared Shakir and Digg's combine data.

Diggs - 6'0 195, 40 - 4.46, 10 - 1.53, Vertical - 35" , Broad 9'7" Combine Total Score 81; Prospect Grade 6.10  (Draft 5th rd by Minn)

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/stefon-diggs/32004449-4721-8895-fc23-d2bf4c921bd4

 

Shakir - 6'0 196, 40- 4.43, 10 - 1.49, Vertical 34.5, Broad 10'4" Combine Total Score 78, Prospect grade 6.18 (Draft 5th rd by Buf) 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/khalil-shakir/32005348-4110-7427-f34a-bb0aa1d8e556

 

After looking at how similar their combine scores were, with Shakir being the slightly faster and higher grades prospect, I realized if Diggs could excel outside, why couldn't Shakir?

Edited March 25 by GASabresIUFan

[Unforgiven]

kc still has the better qb and coach.

[BananaB]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

More than not were quite happy with the Garty signing, but let's not leapfrog the point.  The talk here was largely as to why he'd contribute, similarly to the talk about Samuel now. 

 

I know, I did the opposite and took a trash for it.  The overhype re: our signings is an annual occurrence.

 

Otherwise, thanks for letting me know what I think, but unfortunately that wouldn't be correct.  😏

 

You make a good point about it however, but that's a more advanced and more complex discussion. 

 

 

I took crap for it too, I hated Beane bringing in both Harty and Sherfield. Two guys who have proved nothing. I believe Samuel has proved himself as a player and think Allen can help elevate his production. Comparing Samuel to Sherfield and Harty is laughable. The only thing they have in common with him is that they signed with Buffalo in month of March. 

Edited March 25 by BananaB

[The Jokeman]

I have question at Safety and DL and RB depth but a good draft or few more mid level signings could help fill.

[PBF81]

6 hours ago, BananaB said:

I took crap for it too, I hated Beane bringing in both Harty and Sherfield. Two guys who have proved nothing. I believe Samuel has proved himself as a player and think Allen can help elevate his production. Comparing Samuel to Sherfield and Harty is laughable. The only thing they have in common with him is that they signed with Buffalo in month of March. 

 

Once again, I've never compared Samuel as a player to either of the others.

 

I simply don't see him moving the needle like so many others here.  You see the same posts that I do about how we're set at WR.  That's BS!

 

Allen's biological clock is ticking.  (movie reference in a light-hearted fashion)

 

Please stop putting words into my mouth.  

 

 

[Sweats]

I like the look of our O......i think who we've got on the roster so far is manageable, however, we still need a few pieces, like WR, depth RB, blah, blah, blah.

What really terrifies me is our D......falls apart and collapses in big moments and i don't see much in the way of improvement so far.

[Ballhawk]

As others have suggested, I'm really happy with what Beane as done. Resigning Daquan was huge, literally. 

 

I'm nervous about losing Hyde and Poyer in the same year, I would have preferred to stagger that loss, keeping Poyer for one more year. To me it's not the talent on the field but the experience and leadership in the secondary. I think that's a lot to overcome at the same time and expect we will get burned deep more this year. Even a talented high draft pick, it that's what Beane does, will not instantly rebuild 8 years of experience and chemistry.

[billsfan89]

After free agency and heading into the draft I feel pretty solid about the Bills heading into the draft. I do think the Bills will make one more free agency signing but probably a rotational DT or backup offensive linemen nothing earth shattering as the major moves are made. I think while the Bills still have some needs on the roster I think heading into the draft they will be in a position to fill a lot of those depth and short term needs fairly well. 

 

I think the Bills have the following needs after the first couple waves of free agency are done and in the books. 

 

1- Left Guard - Connor McGovern can slide into center fine, but David Edwards as a starter leaves a lot to be desired. I would strongly consider taking a top guard prospect at pick 60 if I were the Bills. 

 

2- 3 Tech DT - Ed Oliver is a very very good 3 tech but the Bills have no one behind him. With Daquon being older and Johnson both older and on a one year deal getting a young cost controlled DT who can backup Ed is very much a need. The Bills usually carry 5 DT's so I suspect they may bring back Jordan Phillips or a low cost vet for the three tech backup spot before the draft but they need a body at DT for long and short term necessity. 

 

3- DE - Von further removed from injury will hopefully be much improved while AJE and Groot are still there and a capable tandem. However the Bills carry 6 DE's and the back end of the rotation is lackluster and long term they probably need a cost controlled player as Von is old and AJE and Groot are only under contract for 2 more seasons. 

 

4- WR - Not a glaring need with Diggs, Shakir, Samuel and Hollins along with having Kincaid as a quality receiving TE along with Knox as a quality TE who can flex out the backfield but long term they have to prepare for Diggs decline and short term adding more depth and "pop" at WR is a good idea. Doesn't have to be a high pick but won't hate a high pick here either. 

 

5- Safety - The starting combo of Rapp/Edwards is an average to below average starting combo but the depth and long term situation there needs to be addressed. Getting a safety that can add depth and be developed long term seems like a good use of a 4th round selection or a 5th round selection. Edwards and Hamlin are both on the final year of their deals and Rapp is signed past that but not necessarily a long term solution there either. Gotta bring in at least one more body here. 

 

6- Offensive line Depth - With Edwards penciled in as a starter and Bates gone there is a need for depth along the offensive line. Van Denmark, Clapp and Anderson are the current depth and considering the Bills roster 9-10 offensive linemen and Clapp is not exactly an inspiring backup drafting a second depth offensive linemen in the mid-rounds would be needed. 

 

7- Depth at corner - Corner is pretty solid but adding another boundary corner to replace Dane is a depth need that can be addressed in the mid to late rounds. 

 

8- Running back depth - With Ty Johnson back and Cook in the fold the Bills have a nice tandem there but the Bills usually carry 3 RB's plus a FB and they could use a young cost controlled back with Cook likely seeking a new deal after this season. Hopefully they can find a back with some upside and who can add short term value as a returner or on special teams. 

 

9- Kicker - Bass had a complete implosion last season, I don't see why the Bills cannot draft a kicker late if they don't consolidate their picks too much via trade up. 

 

10- Punter - Same as kicker, if you address all of your other needs and have a late round pick you can't trade away grabbing a young punter to compete is not a bad idea. 

[BillMafia716ix]

As it stands right now. I don’t think we’ve done anything that’s going to get us a closer to a SB. The defense is in a transition phase and we lost a lot of leadership in the locker room. Offensively I hate the Morse move. Samuel is a nice addition but I see him more as a slot than a #2.  We still need more weapons on that side of the ball. 
 

I guess will see where we really stand after the draft.