Anyone else feeling pretty good with the Bills?

[Chaos]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

In the AFC? At least the Chiefs, Bengals, Texans and Ravens. I think we have been a top 3 roster in the AFC the last 4 seasons. We are now 5th or 6th IMO.

Thank you for the feedback.  I won't argue one by one, but it seems like the Chiefs have gaps at receiver, and in the secondary as much as the Bills, as well as issue on the offensive line. 

[Kornfed]

The Bills still have elite talent as do many teams. Team chemistry, talent, coaching and fate/luck (injuries, b ounces) .. Man, it takes a lot of variables but at least now days we are poised to be strong contenders again. I am kinda surprised we haven't got one yet but it could come any year. And that sure beats the hell outta what we had for so many years. Beane is damn good. Go Bills!!

[Buffalo Super Fan]

No the Buffalo Bills defense is going to be a lot weaker and the Bills are banking on the offense carrying the Bills. Again what troubles me isn’t Josh Allen he is reliable but Stefon Diggs is becoming a problem. I wouldn’t count on Stefon Diggs this season being very reliable anymore he has a screw loose and he is going to screw up the Bills with his petty crap. So no there are a lot of if’s with the Buffalo Bills we let a lot of experience on defense leave. Von Miller the Bills kept is done and Stefon Diggs has a screw loose what could go wrong? I don’t see the same character the Bills once had they kept the trouble makers because of contracts not because they wanted too. I would be happy if the Bills just made the playoffs this season. The Stefon Diggs thing has gone on far too long for the kind of money he makes I would be furious if I am Terry Pegula. I think the Bills walk away after this season from

both Stefon Diggs and Von Miller. I think if it wasn’t for the cap Von Miller and Stefon Diggs would already be gone just not reliable anymore that is a huge potential problem in my opinion. Go Bills! Let’s Go Buffalo 

[Nephilim17]

6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

You missed the point entirely.  

 

It's about efficiency, not gross numbers.  That should have been clear.  

 

What's the point? That a high TD to overall receptions ratio is indicative of a good "scoring" player?

Look at the top 10-TD scoring wide receivers in 2023.

https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/category/receiving/2023/REG/all/receivingtouchdowns/DESC

The averages are all over the place. To me Gabe Davis having a high ratio is more an indictment of his non-red-zone receptions than it is some indictment that other Bills players can't score touchdowns.

Devante Adams had 103 receptions and 8 TDs, both more than Gabe ever had. Yet that average is "only" 1 TD one every 13 receptions. That's worse than Diggs who you point out as being the next closest to Davis but you say it's "not even close" when it comes to other Bills players scoring TDs.

What does that metric mean? Would you rather have Davis than Adams? Really? Your "efficiency" just proves Davis is really, really not a factor between the 20s.

Once again, you say this: 

"There isn't a player on our roster, during McD's entire tenure, that even approaches Davis' ability to score TDs.  

 

The best we have is Diggs and he's averaged a TD every 12 catches."

I'll take Diggs poor TD-to-reception ratio and 1,183 yards and 8 TDs in 2023 over Davis' 746 yards and 7 TDs despite Davis' way higher TD to reception ration.
In fact, I'll take any of Digg's years over any of Davis despite Davis having a higher TD-to-reception ratio.

Who wouldn't?

Davis has scored 27 TDS the last 4 years and DIggs has scored 37 TDs in the same span. Yet because of "efficiency" you make this claim:

"There isn't a player on our roster, during McD's entire tenure, that even approaches Davis' ability to score TDs.  

Nonsense. A TD is a TD and Diggs has scored a lot more than Davis. And he has had a lot more yards between the 20s than Davis. I don't give a flying f*** about "efficiency."

 

[Big Blitz]

Ask me after June OTAs.  As of now I’m more concerned than optimistic.  Doesn't mean I don’t think we’re contenders.  
 

Diggs is a year older and Curtis Samuel is not a number 1 if Diggs were to miss time.  I think Diggs is a number 1 but I don’t know.   
 

The middle of the Oline went from strength to unknown - I don’t mean to beat a dead horse over this but you negate the pass rushes teams will have against us (Chris Jones) and I’m not sure I can say “we’re just fine we got David Edwards at Guard.”  Ok.  
 

On defense I’m not sure what the CB and Safeties look like.  3 new starters from opening day 2023 - Douglas, and 2 safeties.  I think Douglas and Benford are good but communicating and adjustments with an entire new unit are going to lead to some issues.  Especially early on.  But I trust the D coaches.  
 

Depth at CB however is not good.  And I’m not sure how the D line is worse than last year.  It has to be at least on par or better.

So right now on paper we are not quite as good as last years team but that can change if the following happen - in addition to our year 2/3 guys developing and Joe Brady implementing fully his offense:

 

1. McGovern and Edwards are at least equal to what we had their last season.  
2. Miller gets back to at least 80% Von.

3. We nail this draft.  
4. Add depth in the secondary

5. I think the Jets are going to be better but the Dolphins no.  The Jets aren’t drafting Bowers they’re going to end up with Odunze.  Getting real sick of who falls to them in the draft.  But we should win this division.  

 

I think bigger then any of this stuff is the AFC is just ridiculous.  

Burrow Herbert and Rodgers back.  The Chiefs are probably better.  Year 2 Stroud and those weapons.  Will the AFC North still have 4 ten win teams?

 

How do we stack vs them is the question.   

 

[Doc Brown]

I just have faith that Allen will make sure this is still a top five offense and McDermott will figure out the defense to make sure it stays in the top half of the league.  My expectations of winning the division and at least making the divisional round remain the same as it has since we acquired Diggs in 2020.  Then it just comes down to a matter of how healthy we are compared to our competition come playoff time.  Like every year, the biggest caveat is that Allen stays healthy.

[PBF81]

6 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

What's the point? 

 

Uhhh, scoring maybe.   ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

 

until they start determining game outcomes by yardage gained ...  

 

Samuel, Mr. 3-TDs/season over 7 seasons on average, on two different teams, isn't likely to turn into a scoring machine now.  

 

He may be a great addition, who knows now, but it's pretty likely he's not going to go from averaging a TD every 15 catches to a TD every 6.  

 

Call me nuts, but for a WR that's averaged just over 3 catches/game, on a team where no one even knows the right for for him, it seems unlikely that'll change significantly.  

He's not going to be averaging 8 catches/game either.  

 

Which begs the question, who's going to be doing the scoring on the receiving end.  I suspect that Kincaid will pick up much of that slack.  

 

 

[SoTier]

22 hours ago, Dillenger4 said:

Well, we knew this was coming. A "Re-Tool" of sorts. I think the Bills will have a mediocre year. I am more of a realist compared to posts above:

 

Miami - GOT STRONGER! Not sure what people are talking about here, but they added LB Jordyn Brooks, Center Aaron Brewer and CB Kendall Fuller not to mention Jonnu Smith at TE. Those are all above average players making them pretty strong. But... Tua. We will see but I think the Phins give us a tough run this year.

 

Then we have Steelers, KC, TEXANS, even Titans got stronger. Jets quietly had a good offseason so far too. If Rogers can play well, they will be a tough out. They beat us last year. Cincy and the Browns will be strong too.

 

So, I expect no playoffs or a first round loss. This Bills team has way too many holes, new coaches in important spots and a general feeling of swiss cheese.

 

I hope I'm wrong.

 

Miami did not get stronger.   They lost their best defensive player plus some other key players and have replaced them with guys at as "sketchy" talent/experience wise as the Bills signees.  A wash.

 

How did KC get better?   They had to trade away their DB Snead for next to nothing because of cap issues.  If there are questions about the Bills signing Samuel, then signing Hollywood Brown is just as questionable.   Pitt will be improved if Russell Wilson can regain his Seattle form, but the Jests have put all their hopes on a forty-one-year-old QB coming off an Achilles injury who is flirting with politics and who will play behind a newly assembled OL filled with older guys or guys coming off injuries or both.   Baltimore, Cincy, and Cleveland are in the same boat as the Bills, KC and Miami:  since they're paying franchise QBs, they have limited cap room so they can't make tremendous improvements via FA.    The draft is probably much more crucial in determining which of the top AFC teams improve than FA.

 

14 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

So you're essentially arguing that a WR's ability to find the end zone is insignificant then.  Well, OK.  I suppose there's at least some reasonable debate in there.  

 

IMO it's relevant, particularly on a team like ours where receiving TD producers seem to be rare.  

 

Let's hope he has his best season ever.

 

 

 

I enjoyed Davis' long TDs as much as any Bills fan but it's very hard to deny the balls he dropped and how he so often failed to get open.   What makes your TD/reception stat irrelevant to determining a receiver's play is that it ignores how many times the receiver was targeted, made catches or dropped the ball.    I think that for receivers, TDs per target would be a more useful stat than TDs per catch.    Of course, stats can't measure clutch plays, and Davis failed to make too many clutch plays to be worth what the Jags paid him.

 

Edited March 24 by SoTier

[dollars 2 donuts]

On 3/22/2024 at 8:16 PM, machine gun kelly said:

Id like to say we had a quiet, but needed FA.  We have 11 draft pics so we’ll be able to fortify and if Beane want to even trade up a little.

 
Agreed, Guns. I will say this, a few weeks ago we were 52 million over the cap and we had some guys…guys that we love, but guys that were pricey and let’s say it, getting old.

 

Now we are under, signing some pieces, albeit not stellar, that shore us up, and we still have a fantastic core on both sides of the ball.

 

Will we win the division? I hope so.  However, will we be in the the playoffs? Yes.

 

I will roll with this team and I am looking forward to the future, optimistic for 24, fired up for 25.

 

Go Bills!

 

@NoHuddleKelly12

 

Edited March 24 by dollars 2 donuts

[BananaB]

7 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

What's the point? That a high TD to overall receptions ratio is indicative of a good "scoring" player?

Look at the top 10-TD scoring wide receivers in 2023.

https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/category/receiving/2023/REG/all/receivingtouchdowns/DESC

The averages are all over the place. To me Gabe Davis having a high ratio is more an indictment of his non-red-zone receptions than it is some indictment that other Bills players can't score touchdowns.

Devante Adams had 103 receptions and 8 TDs, both more than Gabe ever had. Yet that average is "only" 1 TD one every 13 receptions. That's worse than Diggs who you point out as being the next closest to Davis but you say it's "not even close" when it comes to other Bills players scoring TDs.

What does that metric mean? Would you rather have Davis than Adams? Really? Your "efficiency" just proves Davis is really, really not a factor between the 20s.

Once again, you say this: 

"There isn't a player on our roster, during McD's entire tenure, that even approaches Davis' ability to score TDs.  

 

The best we have is Diggs and he's averaged a TD every 12 catches."

I'll take Diggs poor TD-to-reception ratio and 1,183 yards and 8 TDs in 2023 over Davis' 746 yards and 7 TDs despite Davis' way higher TD to reception ration.
In fact, I'll take any of Digg's years over any of Davis despite Davis having a higher TD-to-reception ratio.

Who wouldn't?

Davis has scored 27 TDS the last 4 years and DIggs has scored 37 TDs in the same span. Yet because of "efficiency" you make this claim:

"There isn't a player on our roster, during McD's entire tenure, that even approaches Davis' ability to score TDs.  

Nonsense. A TD is a TD and Diggs has scored a lot more than Davis. And he has had a lot more yards between the 20s than Davis. I don't give a flying f*** about "efficiency."

 

Has any WR on the Bills had as many targets as Gabe the past 4 years besides Steph? 
How many drooped passes has he had compared to any other player over 4 years? How many INTs when he was targeted over the past 4 years? How many miscommunications with Allen? 
 

Dude is just a very inconsistent player. He’s made a lot of big plays for the Bills, but there is also a lot of negative plays. We need an upgrade at #2 and it would have been great to keep Gabe as the #3, but not at that price. 

[bills6969]

Ask me again after the draft. I have concerns with the secondary.  Big holes to fill with replacing Poyer and Hyde.  

[JGMcD2]

16 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Everyone's assuming that Milano will be 100% or close to it.  It's concerning that he wasn't able to put any weight on his injured leg for two months.  That's a long time for a reportedly simple break of his tibia.  That's not normal.  

 

 

It wasn't a simple break of his tibia...

It was a tibial plateau fracture... pretty common for the recovery to be non-weight bearing for 6-12 weeks post op. 

[Charles Romes]

Having to “settle” for a TE pass catcher last year was a blessing in disguise.  We have a #1 receiver at the cost of no more than a 3 for a decade.  As a receiver Kincaid is on a different level than a Pitts, Bowers, Fant, Hockenson, anyone who was drafted high the the last ten years.  

[FireChans]

15 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, OK, other than for Diggs, name the other WRs that we've had here that have played significantly better than they have elsewhere?  

 

 

John Brown. Cole Beasley.

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Miami did not get stronger.   They lost their best defensive player plus some other key players and have replaced them with guys at as "sketchy" talent/experience wise as the Bills signees.  A wash.

 

How did KC get better?   They had to trade away their DB Snead for next to nothing because of cap issues.  If there are questions about the Bills signing Samuel, then signing Hollywood Brown is just as questionable.   Pitt will be improved if Russell Wilson can regain his Seattle form, but the Jests have put all their hopes on a forty-one-year-old QB coming off an Achilles injury who is flirting with politics and who will play behind a newly assembled OL filled with older guys or guys coming off injuries or both.   Baltimore, Cincy, and Cleveland are in the same boat as the Bills, KC and Miami:  since they're paying franchise QBs, they have limited cap room so they can't make tremendous improvements via FA.    The draft is probably much more crucial in determining which of the top AFC teams improve than FA.

 

 

I enjoyed Davis' long TDs as much as any Bills fan but it's very hard to deny the balls he dropped and how he so often failed to get open.   What makes your TD/reception stat irrelevant to determining a receiver's play is that it ignores how many times the receiver was targeted, made catches or dropped the ball.    I think that for receivers, TDs per target would be a more useful stat than TDs per catch.    Of course, stats can't measure clutch plays, and Davis failed to make too many clutch plays to be worth what the Jags paid him.

 

 

Davis' drops were bad for one season.  Discounting that singular season, that everyone made a mountain of a narrative over, do you know what Samuel's drop % is compared to Davis'? 

 

Davis' drops other than in '22 are quite average in terms of drop %.

 

You may want to look that up before making comments like that.  

 

Otherwise, once again, the comment misses the mark and still does not address the issue.  You'll see, again, this season quite likely, ... unless Samuel becomes a scoring machine.  

 

Hope he does, but I wouldn't put money on it.  

 

 

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, SoTier said:

I enjoyed Davis' long TDs as much as any Bills fan but it's very hard to deny the balls he dropped and how he so often failed to get open.   What makes your TD/reception stat irrelevant to determining a receiver's play is that it ignores how many times the receiver was targeted, made catches or dropped the ball.    I think that for receivers, TDs per target would be a more useful stat than TDs per catch.    Of course, stats can't measure clutch plays, and Davis failed to make too many clutch plays to be worth what the Jags paid him.

 

 

Oh, I forgot to include other facts.

 

Davis has logged a TD for every 11 targets.  

 

Samuel every 22 targets. 

 

Someone's going to have to step up 

 

 

1 hour ago, JGMcD2 said:

It wasn't a simple break of his tibia...

It was a tibial plateau fracture... pretty common for the recovery to be non-weight bearing for 6-12 weeks post op. 

 

No weight at all for 8 weeks is not common.  Particularly for someone with an athletic/fit build.  

 

But that's fine, well see either way.  Presumably your implication is that he'll easily be back at 100%.

 

If we've learned anything as football fans over the years, isn't one of those things along these lines.  

 

Look at Tre.  Who among us thought that he would suck as bad as he has.  He was tops in the league.  

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Oh, I forgot to include other facts.

 

Davis has logged a TD for every 11 targets.  

 

Samuel every 22 targets. 

 

Someone's going to have to step up 

 

 

 

And someone will. 

 

Going by your logic we should expect Allen to have his lowest passing TD total since 2019. I don't think that is how it works. The TD's will go to someone else. Not necessarily one player in general. But I find it hard to think he will throw significantly fewer than the 29 he threw last year. Last years 29 TD passes was certainly the anomaly to the three previous seasons with 37, 36 and 35 TD passes. 

 

Using your logic we should expect Allen's passing TD's to take another big dip down to about 24 or 25 on the season. That is not a bet I would want to make.

[PBF81]

3 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

And someone will. 

 

Going by your logic we should expect Allen to have his lowest passing TD total since 2019. I don't think that is how it works. The TD's will go to someone else. Not necessarily one player in general. But I find it hard to think he will throw significantly fewer than the 29 he threw last year. Last years 29 TD passes was certainly the anomaly to the three previous seasons with 37, 36 and 35 TD passes. 

 

Using your logic we should expect Allen's passing TD's to take another big dip down to about 24 or 25 on the season. That is not a bet I would want to make.

 

Well, if Diggs is really finished like everyone here assumes, we'd better have an answer better than Samuel or yes, that's exactly where we're headed.  Allen was down about 20% as it was this season from prior years.  

 

Hopefully we draft a WR in round 1.  Also, I'm not on the train claiming that Diggs is finished.  IMO it's how he's used.  In fact, someone posted a piece recently, forget where, it may have been linked on the front page, that Diggs was used in slot nearly 50% of the time.  If that's true, and there's no reason to consider the guy's research false, then that would certainly explain the dropoff in production from Diggs.  

 

Complimentary Football as McD likes to call it.  

 

We can expect Kincaid to pick up some of the slack though, but he's not a WR.  

 

 

[BananaB]

17 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Oh, I forgot to include other facts.

 

Davis has logged a TD for every 11 targets.  

 

Samuel every 22 targets. 

 

Someone's going to have to step up 

 

 

 

No weight at all for 8 weeks is not common.  Particularly for someone with an athletic/fit build.  

 

But that's fine, well see either way.  Presumably your implication is that he'll easily be back at 100%.

 

If we've learned anything as football fans over the years, isn't one of those things along these lines.  

 

Look at Tre.  Who among us thought that he would suck as bad as he has.  He was tops in the league.  

 

 

Do you actually think Gabe would have the same results playing with some of the below average QBs Samuel has played with? 

[Toyo321]

This offseason really shows how bad Von Miller's, Dawson Knox and Diggs contracts are to this team for 2024,  they have single handedly influenced the team's ability ability to sign quality personnel this year, in the FA market.  I guess we will have to wait after the draft and OTA's to see where this team is competition wise, to compete against the AFC elite this year.  These three players alone are completely replaceable right now.  I hate to say it but Diggs will be a issue this year in the locker room.

 

Diggs has the makings of a problem child this year in the locker room and with the coaching staff, we don't know what we are going to get out of this guy for 2024.  

 

Sorry but it's all over the internet and it can't all be made up rumors.

 

Besides all this drama,  the draft could be very promising if they hit on 3 draftees' that could be starters at WR, S and DE.

Edited March 24 by Toyo321